OT: COVID-19 Presentation from CROI Meeting

[Leebo]

Warmer and more humid probably matters, but it's probably equally a matter of age distribution in the population and which strain they've gotten. There are two strains: Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly? -- one of them has fatality rates of 5-15% and was the first to appear in November 2019, the other has fatality rates of 0.1-1% and appeared in December-January. Probably Wuhan and Iran got the severe strain but the less severe strain is dominant in most places now.

Most likely, the first was engineered as a bioweapon and the second was a weakened virus designed to be a vaccine. The authorities are letting the "vaccine" spread around the world, thus the UK government decision to let it spread in the UK, Experts cast doubt on UK plan to allow large amount of population to catch coronavirus for ‘herd immunity’, a policy which would make no sense if it weren't protective against the more severe strain.

Stop, please.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Warmer and more humid probably matters, but it's probably equally a matter of age distribution in the population and which strain they've gotten. There are two strains: Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly? -- one of them has fatality rates of 5-15% and was the first to appear in November 2019, the other has fatality rates of 0.1-1% and appeared in December-January. Probably Wuhan and Iran got the severe strain but the less severe strain is dominant in most places now.

Most likely, the first was engineered as a bioweapon and the second was a weakened virus designed to be a vaccine. The authorities are letting the "vaccine" spread around the world, thus the UK government decision to let it spread in the UK, Experts cast doubt on UK plan to allow large amount of population to catch coronavirus for ‘herd immunity’, a policy which would make no sense if it weren't protective against the more severe strain.

“Most likely” LMAOOOO what’s your estimate of likelihood, professor?

 

[pj]

I explained in another thread why it is almost certainly an engineered virus rather than one that naturally evolved -- (1) it has substantial sequence differences / low homology to any other known coronavirus; (2) it entered humans for the first time in November 2019 which we know because there have been minimal mutations, it is the same virus all around the world (Coronavirus Genome Sequencing Finds Distinct Genetic Differences From 2003 SARS Virus) -- this means it didn't evolve in humans, it was engineered or it evolved in animals and hopped to humans for the first time in November; and (3) and it entered humans perfectly adapted for humans and maladapted for animals, as it binds human ACE2 and other human proteins with very high affinity. Viruses don't evolve in animals to be maladapted to their animal host but perfectly adapted to another host they've never occupied. Only engineered viruses do that.

The situation will become clear to scientists as more sequences are obtained and published and analyzed. Very likely this will turn out to be a Frankenstein virus made of parts from multiple known viruses, as an Indian paper reported not long ago.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I explained in another thread why it is almost certainly an engineered virus rather than one that naturally evolved -- (1) it has substantial sequence differences / low homology to any other known coronavirus; (2) it entered humans for the first time in November 2019 which we know because there have been minimal mutations, it is the same virus all around the world (Coronavirus Genome Sequencing Finds Distinct Genetic Differences From 2003 SARS Virus) -- this means it didn't evolve in humans, it was engineered or it evolved in animals; and (3) and it entered humans perfectly adapted for humans and maladapted for animals. Viruses don't evolve in animals to be maladapted to their animal host but perfectly adapted to another host they've never occupied. Only engineered viruses do that.

All this will become clear to scientists as more sequences are obtained and published and analyzed. Very likely this will turn out to be a Frankenstein virus made of parts from multiple known viruses, as an Indian paper reported not long ago.

So “almost certainly”

Jesus how do people live thinking like this

 

[SixRings]

Interesting how we can go years of talking basketball and never really know some other posters are flipping morons, whackos or conspiracy theorist until a pandemic occurs.

 

[Leebo]

He's not gonna stop I guess.

 

[pj]

You guys are the opposite of scientists, you follow social cues rather than logic. And name-call when you can't refute.

 

[Rocktheworld]

You guys are the opposite of scientists, you follow social cues rather than logic. And name-call when you can't refute.

Here’s some logic, from Philosophy 101 that you clearly never attended:

we can’t, and have no burden to, prove a negative. You have the burden of proof for your ridiculous claim.

 

[pj]

Here’s some logic, from Philosophy 101 that you clearly never attended:

we can’t, and have no burden to, prove a negative. You have the burden of proof for your ridiculous claim.

I presented the proof and you haven't responded to it.

Look, this is the deadliest and most virulent pathogen since at least the 1918 flu epidemic, and that was only as deadly as it was because it was a time before modern hygiene. The same 1918 flu germ came back in the 1950s and 1970s, and was much less deadly. It's not exaggerating to say that the more lethal strain of SARS-CoV-2 rivals or exceeds smallpox as the most dangerous germ ever to exist. And yet it had no existence at all in humans before November, and no evolutionary path to get to human virulence.

I don't know what "negative" you think I'm asking you to prove. It is universally acknowledged that the only possible path for this germ into humans was from a scientific lab (if it was engineered) or from an animal. You have to believe it's one or the other, there are no other options. So people will either find an animal that hosts the germ, or they will find that it was engineered in a lab. Place your bet.

 

[Leebo]

I presented the proof and you haven't responded to it.

Look, this is the deadliest and most virulent pathogen since at least the 1918 flu epidemic, and that was only as deadly as it was because it was a time before modern hygiene. The same 1918 flu germ came back in the 1950s and 1970s, and was much less deadly. It's not exaggerating to say that the more lethal strain of SARS-CoV-2 rivals or exceeds smallpox as the most dangerous germ ever to exist. And yet it had no existence at all in humans before November, and no evolutionary path to get to human virulence.

I don't know what "negative" you think I'm asking you to prove. It is universally acknowledged that the only possible path for this germ into humans was from a scientific lab (if it was engineered) or from an animal. You have to believe it's one or the other, there are no other options. So people will either find an animal that hosts the germ, or they will find that it was engineered in a lab. Place your bet.

So you think someone developed this as a bio weapon and then deployed it in a Chinese wet market just so people would think it had a zoonotic origin?

 

[tuvent08]

Interesting how we can go years of talking basketball and never really know some other posters are flipping morons, whackos or conspiracy theorist until a pandemic occurs.

Agreed, and the virus discussions are definitely going to color my view of many posters' basketball opinions going forward.

"Wait, what did you say about Bouk? Ohhhh, now I get it."

 

[BlueDogs]

While it’s tough to know how accurate it is I check this site like it’s weather.com when a hurricane is tracking towards us

Coronavirus Update (Live): 133,636,349 Cases and 2,897,210 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Data is highly suspect. The underlying source information is a mess and not normalized. The CDC can’t even reliably count persons under investigation. Could be much worse or not.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I presented the proof and you haven't responded to it.

Here's my response: not good enough.

Look, this is the deadliest and most virulent pathogen since at least the 1918 flu epidemic, and that was only as deadly as it was because it was a time before modern hygiene. The same 1918 flu germ came back in the 1950s and 1970s, and was much less deadly. It's not exaggerating to say that the more lethal strain of SARS-CoV-2 rivals or exceeds smallpox as the most dangerous germ ever to exist. And yet it had no existence at all in humans before November, and no evolutionary path to get to human virulence.

I shouldn't be lol'ing about this but there have been many viruses across the world that have killed hundreds of thousands of people. We have no idea where this one is going. Nobody can make definitive statements about this virus yet.

For all our advances of modern hygiene we are also travel internationally in inconceivably greater degrees than we did in 1918. But you obviously don't think that far.

I don't know what "negative" you think I'm asking you to prove.

I know, because you never attended Philo 101.

It is universally acknowledged that the only possible path for this germ into humans was from a scientific lab (if it was engineered) or from an animal. You have to believe it's one or the other, there are no other options. So people will either find an animal that hosts the germ, or they will find that it was engineered in a lab. Place your bet.

Yeah they found the animal. It was some animal sold at some market in Wuhan.

 

[pj]

So you think someone developed this as a bio weapon and then deployed it in a Chinese wet market just so people would think it had a zoonotic origin?

I think:
(1) This germ cannot maintain itself or cause disease in animals so far as we know, Quarantine the cat? Disinfect the dog? The latest advice about the coronavirus and your pets, the existing evidence is that it only infects humans, so the animal-to-human pathway is impossible and as Sherlock Holmes said, when you've ruled out all other possibilities, the last one standing must be the truth.
(2) It's pure speculation how it got out, but China's only BSL-4 infectious disease laboratory is in Wuhan (Wuhan Institute of Virology), a mile from the fish market, and it probably would have originated there; most likely via some kind of accidental release, because nobody would intentionally release this in a major city (or I hope no one would). It would be pure speculation how an accident would happen, but if I had to guess, I would say, if you want a bioweapon you need a vaccine to protect your own population, so the next step after engineering a pathogen is to develop a vaccine, and you need to test the vaccine, so you need to expose vaccinated people to the germ. They may have tried that, and made a mistake.

 

[formerlurker]

But Italy smoking rate is less than China. I also believe none of the reporting coming out of China, I have no clue why anyone does.

I deal with Chinese factories daily and am there twice a year on business going on 25 years. The people are great but @superjohn is absolutely right. Don't believe anything that China "reports".

 

[pj]

Here's my response: not good enough.


I shouldn't be lol'ing about this but there have been many viruses across the world that have killed hundreds of thousands of people. We have no idea where this one is going. Nobody can make definitive statements about this virus yet.

For all our advances of modern hygiene we are also travel internationally in inconceivably greater degrees than we did in 1918. But you obviously don't think that far.


I know, because you never attended Philo 101.


Yeah they found the animal. It was some animal sold at some market in Wuhan.

You are beyond dimwitted -- everything you say is either false or an insult. They still have not found any animal that harbors SARS-CoV-2, see Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus. No coronavirus in any animal, including bats and pangolins, has ever been found with homology closer than 96% to SARS-CoV-2. That is not close. And even the 96% is suspect, as far as I know only 92% homology has been confirmed by non-Chinese.

 

[Leebo]

You wouldn’t expect it to be able to spread in animals indiscriminately. Just in whatever it came from (possibly bats, a vector of other diseases as well), so the fact that a dog can’t get it means nothing.

Sorry, but you aren’t doing a good job coming across as anything but a clueless conspiracy theorist.

 

[Rocktheworld]

You are beyond dimwitted -- everything you say is either false or an insult. They still have not found any animal that harbors SARS-CoV-2, see Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus. No coronavirus in any animal, including bats and pangolins, has ever been found with homology closer than 96% to SARS-CoV-2. That is not close.

It's really just your "hmm well this doesn't all add up to me yet, so it must be a bioweapon!" that's led to all this ridicule.

Maybe you'll be proven right one day. Hold your breath for me.

 

[pj]

You wouldn’t expect it to be able to spread in animals indiscriminately. Just in whatever it came from (possibly bats, a common vector of diseases), so the fact that a dog can’t get it means nothing.

Sorry, but you aren’t doing a good job coming across as anything but a clueless conspiracy theorist.

Again, it hasn't been found in bats, or any other animal. "Whatever it came from" - you are assuming there is something it came from. See the Nature article I just cited -- Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus -- people are looking for it in animals and not finding it.

It is able to spread indiscriminately in humans -- it has a doubling time of 5 days in human populations. If it comes from an animal, then it is better adapted to the animal source than to humans -- that is how evolution works. If it can spread indiscriminately in humans, it had better be able to spread indiscriminately in at least one animal species, or your hypothesis of an animal source is blown up. Yet it can't even establish itself in animals, much less maintain itself in an animal population. That is what the data is showing.

There is only one answer that comports with logic and scientific understanding of how viruses evolve. You just don't want to entertain it.

 

[Leebo]

Again, it hasn't been found in bats, or any other animal. "Whatever it came from" - you are assuming there is something it came from. See the Nature article I just cited -- Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus -- people are looking for it in animals and not finding it.

It is able to spread indiscriminately in humans -- it has a doubling time of 5 days in human populations. If it comes from an animal, then it is better adapted to the animal source than to humans -- that is how evolution works. If it can spread indiscriminately in humans, it had better be able to spread indiscriminately in animals, or your hypothesis is blown up. Yet it can't even establish itself in animals, much less maintain itself in an animal population. That is what the data is showing.

There is only one answer that comports with logic and scientific understanding of how viruses evolve. You just don't want to entertain it.

Do you know what indiscriminately means? You posted a thing where people were worried their pets were going to get it. If it could be transmitted indiscriminately in animals, then yeah, dogs and cats would get it too, but they obviously can’t so it’s not indiscriminate.

This is tiring.

 

[pj]

Do you know what indiscriminately means? You posted a thing where people were worried their pets were going to get it. If it could be transmitted indiscriminately in animals, then yeah, dogs and cats would get it too, but they obviously can’t so it’s not indiscriminate.

This is tiring.

You are making my point for me. It spreads indiscriminately in humans but not in animals. It doesn't spread indiscriminately in bats either - it hasn't been found in bats. Don't you see that that refutes the hypothesis of an animal source? I am agreeing with you about the lack of indiscriminate spread in animals.

 

[Leebo]

If it spread only in bats and humans, that would not be “spreading indiscriminately in animals.” It would be spreading only in humans and bats.

Your issues are deeper than conspiratorial thinking it seems.

 

[pj]

If it spread only in bats and humans, that would not be “spreading indiscriminately in animals.” It would be spreading only in humans and bats.

Your issues are deeper than conspiratorial thinking it seems.

Ah. No, I meant spreading from bat to bat indiscriminately. If it were adapted to bats, you would be able to find it in bats, especially if it were able to jump from bats to humans and maintain the level of virulence it has in humans. If it is a bat virus it has to be easier to jump from bat to bat, than from bat to human or human to human.

And it would be difficult to imagine a virus that was well adapted to both bats and humans, but not to species similar to bats and humans, such as other mammals. Zoonotic pathogens that thrive in multiple species generally don't infect only two species.

 

[Leebo]

Btw, I don’t have any theory, because I’m not a virologist. I’m not hoping for anything. Only conspiracy theorists demand that everything have an explanation at any given moment regardless of the situation.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Interesting how we can go years of talking basketball and never really know some other posters are flipping morons, whackos or conspiracy theorist until a pandemic occurs.

There's a forum for that.