OT: COVID-19 Presentation from CROI Meeting

[upstater]

I'd add that the study on smokers and COVID would explain the very high mortality rate in Italy.

 

[CL82]

My two questions are:

If we wipe down a surface with anti bacterial cleaner is the surface really cleaned of the threat? I would assume the surface is like our hands which we should thoroughly wash.

Also if talking to someone and they spray spittle (not unusual) on our face, are we immediately contaminated, if they are? You know the peeps who pronounce certain words with spray.

I was at Pepe's getting a pizza to go, and noticed the staff wiping down menus when collected, even salt and pepper shakers, and who knows what else when customers get up from the table.

The owner of bagel place I go to explained how he is taking extra precautions "with all the stuff that is going on now" and that from now on "the personal handling the money will not handle food." I'm thinking "Wait, that wasn't already the case? Isn't that food sale hygiene 101? Aw well, they are good bagels and on the way to work."

 

[Caronimo]

I'd like to know if we get it, would we ever get it again? Does our body just need to build the tolerance/immunity like it has done with the common cold virus? Maybe a stupid question but I feel like it wouldn't be nearly as bad the second time around. I'll pass on getting the coronawuhan virus, but just some questions.

 

[NJHusky]

I'd like to know if we get it, would we ever get it again? Does our body just need to build the tolerance/immunity like it has done with the common cold virus? Maybe a stupid question but I feel like it wouldn't be nearly as bad the second time around. I'll pass on getting the coronawuhan virus, but just some questions.

i'm not a dr but was speaking to my physician nephew yesterday and his opinion without clinical data was that he thought it was extremely unlikely but not impossible

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I'd add that the study on smokers and COVID would explain the very high mortality rate in Italy.

Not sure if you’re joking but that actually makes sense

 

[Edward Sargent]

My two questions are:

If we wipe down a surface with anti bacterial cleaner is the surface really cleaned of the threat? I would assume the surface is like our hands which we should thoroughly wash.

Also if talking to someone and they spray spittle (not unusual) on our face, are we immediately contaminated, if they are? You know the peeps who pronounce certain words with spray.

I was at Pepe's getting a pizza to go, and noticed the staff wiping down menus when collected, even salt and pepper shakers, and who knows what else when customers get up from the table.

The bacteriocide in antibacterial cleaners and soap is for bacteria and is not effective against viruses. The best is to wash your hands with soap and water with a lot more frequency than you are used to. Keep your nails clipped and maybe remove jewelry. Pay special attention to between fingers

 

[superjohn]

I'd add that the study on smokers and COVID would explain the very high mortality rate in Italy.

But Italy smoking rate is less than China. I also believe none of the reporting coming out of China, I have no clue why anyone does.

 

[Edward Sargent]

I've mentioned it in a few posts already, but my job involves doing clinical and translational practice & research in infectious diseases. Although I do not directly perform antiviral research, I am well-adept at reading scientific articles, interpreting them, and applying the info to real-life clinical observations.

With that intro, and since I love my BY peeps, thought I'd drop a few interesting insights related to the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic. I hope it helps you to understand things more and hope it may decrease some fears/unease you may have at least a little bit about everything:

Spread of COVID-19:

1.) Recently-published data (not fully peer-reviewed yet) provides some suggestive evidence that SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19 infection) can remain aerosolized *in a controlled research environment* for at least 3 hours. It can survive on plastic and stainless steel surfaces for ~72 hours...BUT there is very, very little viable virus left at that 72h timepoint. It doesn't like cardboard as much...no viable virus detected after 24h.

The researchers note in their discussion that their results are similar to those of the SARS-CoV-1 virus (from the 1st SARS outbreak). The aerosolization test result, combined with preliminary evidence that some patients may shed and transmit the virus while pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic provides some support to the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 is capable of causing so-called “super-spreading” events (where one infected person can cause a large number of secondary cases).

Article Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf

What does this mean practically?

1. While very extreme, the substantial social distancing measures now being implemented are probably a very reasonable idea to slow the spread of COVID-19 (especially since we don't have good ways to treat it/vaccinate). Data from China show that it has worked quite well...since 3/7/2020, the numbers of new reported cases have been less than 50 cases per day compared to a high of 15,000+ cases on 2/13/2020.
2. We can definitely say it aerosolizes similar to the SARS virus, but the 3-hour time was the limit of time evaluated in their experiment. They use a confined, defined volume drum that contains the air they test. This is a much different environment than when someone coughs and expels virus. The more confined and stagnant the air is, the more likely it will stay aerosolized. ALWAYS cover your mouth when you cough, but don't be paranoid about going outside...there's going to be a lot more dispersion and reduction of viral particles outdoors. Don't let the pandemic stop you from doing things like taking a nice walk or hike on a sunny day!

I will likely split this info up into a few separate posts in this thread to reduce the "tldr"-ness of it...

Good article, I read in in NEJM. One point in there is that asymptomatic people such as Rudy Gobert can spread the virus.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

you da man! Ace2 talk in da house! brewit bringin' it!
'Don't let the pandemic stop you from doing things like taking a nice walk or hike on a sunny day!' gold, jerry, gold!

 

[Kitaman]

The bacteriocide in antibacterial cleaners and soap is for bacteria and is not effective against viruses. The best is to wash your hands with soap and water with a lot more frequency than you are used to. Keep your nails clipped and maybe remove jewelry. Pay special attention to between fingers

Understood, but what about surfaces (tables, rails, etc..)? Can those be wiped down to kill the virus that may be on the surface?

You know like restaurants, offices, trains, etc. and you want to decontaminate the surface before touching it. I ask because its real life for me, as my wife has a maddening habit of wiping off tables with her hands, if she sees dirt/particles. Probably COPD but she is my wife.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

I'd add that the study on smokers and COVID would explain the very high mortality rate in Italy.

Italy has a much older population than any country other than Japan 48yrs vs the US 38
Much of Europe is the same way the product of extremely low birth rates.

 

[HuskyBandDad]

My weekend project. Making s cardboard suit.

 

[Rocktheworld]

But Italy smoking rate is less than China. I also believe none of the reporting coming out of China, I have no clue why anyone does.

I hear this, but do you think they would’ve got their basketball league back up and running, as I’ve heard they have, if things weren’t getting better?

 

[auror]

There's not going to be any one factor that leads to higher infection or fatality rates in something as large as a country.

It's going to be a combination of a bunch of things, including:

- Cultural practices
- Medical system quality
- Governmental response
- Frequency of travel and tourism
- Demographics of age, gender, and at risk population including hypertension, etc.
- Potential super spreader event.
- Smoking population
- Possibly climate/humidity levels although this is still being explored.

Italy checks pretty much all the boxes.

 

[auror]

NPR had an article 10 days ago that the actual death rate in China outside of Wuhan is around 0.4% which is less than 1 death per 100 people. Elderly and at-risk people should take precautions, but the 3-4% death rate number will start to decrease by the end of this

We'll see how it plays out, but I'm fairly certain the fatality rate will end up being bimodal based on how well a country's medical system can handle the case load. 0.5-1.5% on one end of the spectrum, 3-4%+ if things shit the bed.

 

[NH Husky]

Looks like india is being spared. Warmer climate? I wonder

 

[Edward Sargent]

Thanks BrewIt, this is some good information

 

[pj]

Looks like india is being spared. Warmer climate? I wonder

Warmer and more humid probably matters, but it's probably equally a matter of age distribution in the population and which strain they've gotten. There are two strains: Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly? -- one of them has fatality rates of 5-15% and was the first to appear in November 2019, the other has fatality rates of 0.1-1% and appeared in December-January. Probably Wuhan and Iran got the severe strain but the less severe strain is dominant in most places now.

Most likely, the first was engineered as a bioweapon and the second was a weakened virus designed to be a vaccine. The authorities are letting the "vaccine" spread around the world, thus the UK government decision to let it spread in the UK, Experts cast doubt on UK plan to allow large amount of population to catch coronavirus for ‘herd immunity’, a policy which would make no sense if it weren't protective against the more severe strain.

 

[superjohn]

I hear this, but do you think they would’ve got their basketball league back up and running, as I’ve heard they have, if things weren’t getting better?

One would think but I trust nothing from them. They're demanding American players to return or they will have lifetime bans, the same time their gov't is saying the American military is responsible for the virus.

The virus has been there for 4 months.
Maybe they've mostly controlled it, they've certainly had a way more ambitious plan than us for containment but I certainly wouldn't want to be ordered back there if I was an American player.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Warmer and more humid probably matters, but it's probably equally a matter of age distribution in the population and which strain they've gotten. There are two strains: Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly? -- one of them has fatality rates of 5-15% and was the first to appear in November 2019, the other has fatality rates of 0.1-1% and appeared in December-January. Probably Wuhan and Iran got the severe strain but the less severe strain is dominant in most places now.

Most likely, the first was engineered as a bioweapon and the second was a weakened virus designed to be a vaccine. The authorities are letting the "vaccine" spread around the world, thus the UK government decision to let it spread in the UK, Experts cast doubt on UK plan to allow large amount of population to catch coronavirus for ‘herd immunity’, a policy which would make no sense if it weren't protective against the more severe strain.

You had me until the second paragraph

 

[Leebo]

Warmer and more humid probably matters, but it's probably equally a matter of age distribution in the population and which strain they've gotten. There are two strains: Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly? -- one of them has fatality rates of 5-15% and was the first to appear in November 2019, the other has fatality rates of 0.1-1% and appeared in December-January. Probably Wuhan and Iran got the severe strain but the less severe strain is dominant in most places now.

Most likely, the first was engineered as a bioweapon and the second was a weakened virus designed to be a vaccine. The authorities are letting the "vaccine" spread around the world, thus the UK government decision to let it spread in the UK, Experts cast doubt on UK plan to allow large amount of population to catch coronavirus for ‘herd immunity’, a policy which would make no sense if it weren't protective against the more severe strain.

Stop, please.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Warmer and more humid probably matters, but it's probably equally a matter of age distribution in the population and which strain they've gotten. There are two strains: Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly? -- one of them has fatality rates of 5-15% and was the first to appear in November 2019, the other has fatality rates of 0.1-1% and appeared in December-January. Probably Wuhan and Iran got the severe strain but the less severe strain is dominant in most places now.

Most likely, the first was engineered as a bioweapon and the second was a weakened virus designed to be a vaccine. The authorities are letting the "vaccine" spread around the world, thus the UK government decision to let it spread in the UK, Experts cast doubt on UK plan to allow large amount of population to catch coronavirus for ‘herd immunity’, a policy which would make no sense if it weren't protective against the more severe strain.

“Most likely” LMAOOOO what’s your estimate of likelihood, professor?

 

[pj]

I explained in another thread why it is almost certainly an engineered virus rather than one that naturally evolved -- (1) it has substantial sequence differences / low homology to any other known coronavirus; (2) it entered humans for the first time in November 2019 which we know because there have been minimal mutations, it is the same virus all around the world (Coronavirus Genome Sequencing Finds Distinct Genetic Differences From 2003 SARS Virus) -- this means it didn't evolve in humans, it was engineered or it evolved in animals and hopped to humans for the first time in November; and (3) and it entered humans perfectly adapted for humans and maladapted for animals, as it binds human ACE2 and other human proteins with very high affinity. Viruses don't evolve in animals to be maladapted to their animal host but perfectly adapted to another host they've never occupied. Only engineered viruses do that.

The situation will become clear to scientists as more sequences are obtained and published and analyzed. Very likely this will turn out to be a Frankenstein virus made of parts from multiple known viruses, as an Indian paper reported not long ago.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I explained in another thread why it is almost certainly an engineered virus rather than one that naturally evolved -- (1) it has substantial sequence differences / low homology to any other known coronavirus; (2) it entered humans for the first time in November 2019 which we know because there have been minimal mutations, it is the same virus all around the world (Coronavirus Genome Sequencing Finds Distinct Genetic Differences From 2003 SARS Virus) -- this means it didn't evolve in humans, it was engineered or it evolved in animals; and (3) and it entered humans perfectly adapted for humans and maladapted for animals. Viruses don't evolve in animals to be maladapted to their animal host but perfectly adapted to another host they've never occupied. Only engineered viruses do that.

All this will become clear to scientists as more sequences are obtained and published and analyzed. Very likely this will turn out to be a Frankenstein virus made of parts from multiple known viruses, as an Indian paper reported not long ago.

So “almost certainly”

Jesus how do people live thinking like this

 

[SixRings]

Interesting how we can go years of talking basketball and never really know some other posters are flipping morons, whackos or conspiracy theorist until a pandemic occurs.

 

[Leebo]

He's not gonna stop I guess.

 

[pj]

You guys are the opposite of scientists, you follow social cues rather than logic. And name-call when you can't refute.

 

[Rocktheworld]

You guys are the opposite of scientists, you follow social cues rather than logic. And name-call when you can't refute.

Here’s some logic, from Philosophy 101 that you clearly never attended:

we can’t, and have no burden to, prove a negative. You have the burden of proof for your ridiculous claim.

 

[pj]

Here’s some logic, from Philosophy 101 that you clearly never attended:

we can’t, and have no burden to, prove a negative. You have the burden of proof for your ridiculous claim.

I presented the proof and you haven't responded to it.

Look, this is the deadliest and most virulent pathogen since at least the 1918 flu epidemic, and that was only as deadly as it was because it was a time before modern hygiene. The same 1918 flu germ came back in the 1950s and 1970s, and was much less deadly. It's not exaggerating to say that the more lethal strain of SARS-CoV-2 rivals or exceeds smallpox as the most dangerous germ ever to exist. And yet it had no existence at all in humans before November, and no evolutionary path to get to human virulence.

I don't know what "negative" you think I'm asking you to prove. It is universally acknowledged that the only possible path for this germ into humans was from a scientific lab (if it was engineered) or from an animal. You have to believe it's one or the other, there are no other options. So people will either find an animal that hosts the germ, or they will find that it was engineered in a lab. Place your bet.

 

[Leebo]

I presented the proof and you haven't responded to it.

Look, this is the deadliest and most virulent pathogen since at least the 1918 flu epidemic, and that was only as deadly as it was because it was a time before modern hygiene. The same 1918 flu germ came back in the 1950s and 1970s, and was much less deadly. It's not exaggerating to say that the more lethal strain of SARS-CoV-2 rivals or exceeds smallpox as the most dangerous germ ever to exist. And yet it had no existence at all in humans before November, and no evolutionary path to get to human virulence.

I don't know what "negative" you think I'm asking you to prove. It is universally acknowledged that the only possible path for this germ into humans was from a scientific lab (if it was engineered) or from an animal. You have to believe it's one or the other, there are no other options. So people will either find an animal that hosts the germ, or they will find that it was engineered in a lab. Place your bet.

So you think someone developed this as a bio weapon and then deployed it in a Chinese wet market just so people would think it had a zoonotic origin?