OT: Corona Virus Near Me

[MSGRET]

The Governor of Nevada has closed all non essential businesses for 30 days. He ordered that all casino's in the State close at Midnight yesterday. My wife went in this morning to help count all of the money. This included emptying every slot machine and taking every chip off of the tables. I guess she gets a 30 day holiday, now we're wondering how she gets paid for those days. Technically she wasn't furloughed by the casino so they aren't responsible. My son is working because where he works delivers to essential businesses so they are also considered essential. Hope everyone is doing well and that they stay healthy.

 

[UcMiami]

One problem unique to Coronavirus (and the opposite of Ebola) that Gates did not touch on is that it happens in a society that suppressed the information early and did not want outside help.

This is a nice trope, but the generally recognized time line in the medical/scientific community is that the disease first manifested in December in the middle of flu season, and the identification of something different took a month, and the cause was first isolated in January. That is not very long in identifying a new disease, and while the situation in Wuhan was terrible, the situation in the rest of China shows how well their medical system has function. Korea reacted the fastest of other countries and identified all but one patient who turned into their own typhoid Mary - she alone was the direct cause of at least 60% of their cases to date. The rest of the world has been slow to act/react/mobilize as China, and did so with a known virus and disease already presented to them.

You only need look at the delays in recognizing AIDS and mobilizing to deal with it to see how slowly the world reacts.

Sorry if this is considered too political a comment.

 

[UcMiami]

View attachment 52112
This seem so daunting. I'd look forward to the recovered number going up in time.

It takes 14-21 days for 'recovery' and 3-10 days to become detectable in a patient, and since almost all cases have been found in the last three weeks and on an exponential curve, the recovery numbers are only starting to be counted. Give it some time

 

[UcMiami]

I just found these two similar articles on hospital capacity around the US. They are both based on the same research out of Harvard the NYT is more informational, but the Pro Publica one provides the ability to search the data down to specific local areas - Windham, CT or Hartford, CT for example.

These Places Could Run Out of Hospital Beds as Coronavirus Spreads (Published 2020)

New estimates from a Harvard research team show that, in many parts of the country, there may not be enough hospital beds and staff for coronavirus patients. A shortage of intensive care beds for the sickest patients may be even worse.

www.nytimes.com

Are Hospitals Near Me Ready for Coronavirus? Here Are Nine Different Scenarios.

How soon regions run out of hospital beds depends on how fast the novel coronavirus spreads and how many open beds they had to begin with. Here's a look at the whole country. You can also search for your region.

projects.propublica.org

NB The data is based on current capacity and does not include any estimation of the ability to ramp up capacity, either by reducing normal non-critical bed use, or by ramping up capacity, so it is not quite so dire a situation but it is a very good nationwide and specific illustration as to what 'flattening the curve' means to us all.

 

[CL82]

This is a nice trope, but the generally recognized time line in the medical/scientific community is that the disease first manifested in December in the middle of flu season, and the identification of something different took a month, and the cause was first isolated in January. That is not very long in identifying a new disease, and while the situation in Wuhan was terrible, the situation in the rest of China shows how well their medical system has function. Korea reacted the fastest of other countries and identified all but one patient who turned into their own typhoid Mary - she alone was the direct cause of at least 60% of their cases to date. The rest of the world has been slow to act/react/mobilize as China, and did so with a known virus and disease already presented to them.

You only need look at the delays in recognizing AIDS and mobilizing to deal with it to see how slowly the world reacts.

Sorry if this is considered too political a comment.

November 17 is the current date for "patient zero." By December doctors had identified it as a new disease.
Link to South China Morning Post story

 

[Sluconn Husky]

The rest of the world has been slow to act/react/mobilize as China, and did so with a known virus and disease already presented to them.

 

[vtcwbuff]

This is a nice trope, but the generally recognized time line in the medical/scientific community is that the disease first manifested in December in the middle of flu season, and the identification of something different took a month, and the cause was first isolated in January. That is not very long in identifying a new disease, and while the situation in Wuhan was terrible, the situation in the rest of China shows how well their medical system has function. Korea reacted the fastest of other countries and identified all but one patient who turned into their own typhoid Mary - she alone was the direct cause of at least 60% of their cases to date. The rest of the world has been slow to act/react/mobilize as China, and did so with a known virus and disease already presented to them.

You only need look at the delays in recognizing AIDS and mobilizing to deal with it to see how slowly the world reacts.

Sorry if this is considered too political a comment.

Reality is never political.

 

[Charliebball]

Thanks for everyone's good thoughts........no news is good news so far regarding my mom's care taker who is self quarantined...........of course today I found out one of my neighbors five houses down has tested positive..............it's beginning to feel like the circle is tightening!!

 

[UcMiami]

It takes 14-21 days for 'recovery' and 3-10 days to become detectable in a patient, and since almost all cases have been found in the last three weeks and on an exponential curve, the recovery numbers are only starting to be counted. Give it some time

Just one other point on people watching the numbers 'game' on the virus - because reported case numbers continue to expand at exponential rates and will continue on that path as testing for the virus gets ramped up in the US, the recovery numbers will continue to appear dwarfed by the case numbers. This will continue to be a depressing number comparison for some time, and does not actually represent anything more than better counting of cases.

As an example, if we discover 1000 cases today, it will take 21 days from today before we know the true outcome from those cases, and during those 21 days there are likely to have been an addition 21000 cases discovered (or more) - if all of those 1000 cases recover with zero deaths it will still look like a pitiful recovery, 1000 recoveries vs. 21,000 active cases, when in reality it would be a 100% recovery rate for the cases discovered today.
This will continue in this fashion for quite a while while testing becomes widespread, and new case numbers continue to expand. Eventually the numbers will start to come down as they have in China where today they reported no domestic new cases and only 11 new cases from arriving travelers.

 

[CL82]

View attachment 52112
This seem so daunting. I'd look forward to the recovered number going up in time.

Active cases for me are now a mile further away. Recovered count remains the same.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

South Korea and the United States both saw their first confirmed case on the same day: January 20. Yet Korea swung into action, and they are now seeing few new cases. America dithered, and we're only in the early stages of what will certainly be a terrible pandemic here.

In Fairfield County, I'm in the epicenter of this disease. Still few test kits, and no possible way to track infections now in Connecticut.

Scares the hell out of me.

 

[Kaizen]

View attachment 52132
Active cases for me are now a mile further away. Recovered count remains the same.

Ir is very scary to compare yesterday and today's cases. An increase of 2873 cases just one fay.

 

[bantamlaker]

South Korea and the United States both saw their first confirmed case on the same day: January 20. Yet Korea swung into action, and they are now seeing few new cases. America dithered, and we're only in the early stages of what will certainly be a terrible pandemic here.
In Fairfield County, I'm in the epicenter of this disease. Still few test kits, and no possible way to track infections now in Connecticut.
Scares the hell out of me.

As of yesterday 152 positive cases in CT with102 of them in Fairfield County. Go to ct.gov and there is a link at the top of the page which gives the numbers. I think it is updated daily.

 

[JordyG]

Anyone that thinks they are near the epicenter of COVID-19 in this country think again. Here in NY there are over 4000 confirmed cases with 34 deaths. Washington state with far less confirmed cases at 1200 has 66 deaths. NYC is quickly running out of equipment to deal with hospitalized cases. Here is ground zero for the battle against COVID-19.

 

[Kaizen]

As of yesterday 152 positive cases in CT with102 of them in Fairfield County. Go to ct.gov and there is a link at the top of the page which gives the numbers. I think it is updated daily.

CT GOV Coronavirus in different county.

COVID-19 2023 Update – Ending of the Public Health Emergency

With the nationally declared Public Health Emergency ending on May 11, the Connecticut Department of Public Health has announced the State’s COVID-19 recovery plans and next steps. Please visit www.ct.gov/dph for ongoing updates. If you still can't find an answer to your question, please email...

portal.ct.gov

 

[bantamlaker]

Cuomo in NY mandates all non-essential workers stay home.

 

[sno-cat]

On the lighter side, what will we call the new babies arriving 9 months form now....Corona-Kids? Pandemic Punks? Eventually when they get older they may be called Quaranteens. What say you all?