Conference top-heavy metrics

[pepband99]

An unbelievable metric i found this morning.

As of today, there are 8 conferences where the best team is currently predicted to run the table in Kenpom (with % chance):

Michigan (B10) 7.7%
Arizona (B12) 2%
Gonzaga (WCC) 28.2% (!)
Vanderbilt (SEC) 0.8% <-- this one shocked me
UConn (BE) 3.2%
Utah St (MW) 0.5%
Yale (Ivy) 5.3%
High Point (Big South) 11.1%

I can't ever remember this lasting this late, with this many conferences.

 

[Get a Job]

What do you mean by "predicted to run the table"? Do you mean the probability of winning each game is over 50%? If so, while it may be noteworthy, it does not mean the favored teams are predicted to run the table. Your own list shows that each team has little-to-no chance of running the table (except Gonzaga).

 

[pepband99]

2 different measures.

It means on strict W/L basis, KenPom has a W.

The % chance is indeed more meaningful, as it accounts for close margins and variability.

But it’s still noteworthy that 8 teams, at this point in season, even have a >0 chance. I would expect a number of 4 or less, at this point.

 

[nomar]

What do you mean by "predicted to run the table"? Do you mean the probability of winning each game is over 50%? If so, while it may be noteworthy, it does not mean the favored teams are predicted to run the table. Your own list shows that each team has little-to-no chance of running the table (except Gonzaga).

I assumed the ultimate % was derived by multiplying the team's % likelihood of a win in the next game vs the % for the next game, and so on.

So if you have a 80% chance to win each of the next 3 games, your chance of "running that table" and winning all 3 is 51.2%.

 

[pepband99]

An update - I included dook as i didn't include them earlier (because their projected loss is to Michigan, so OOC), so we're up to 9!

Really an amazingly top-heavy conference metrics year, so far.

Michigan (B10) 4.6% <-- big drop here with their Penn St game. @nelsonmuntz will be confused by this
Arizona (B12) 2.2%
Gonzaga (WCC) 28%
Duke (ACC) 3.2%
Vanderbilt (SEC) 1.1%
UConn (BE) 3.6%
Utah St (MW) 0.7%
Yale (Ivy) 5.2%
High Point (Big South) 12.4%

 

[RuffRuff]

An update - I included dook as i didn't include them earlier (because their projected loss is to Michigan, so OOC), so we're up to 9!

Really an amazingly top-heavy conference metrics year, so far.

Michigan (B10) 4.6% <-- big drop here with their Penn St game. @nelsonmuntz will be confused by this
Arizona (B12) 2.2%
Gonzaga (WCC) 28%
Duke (ACC) 3.2%
Vanderbilt (SEC) 1.1%
UConn (BE) 3.6%
Utah St (MW) 0.7%
Yale (Ivy) 5.2%
High Point (Big South) 12.4%

Welcome to the world of NIL, top heavy basketball. Where the lower fish feed the higher fish.

In a system where lower teams are the supply for higher teams, this kinda stuff is gonna trend.

 

[pepband99]

Michigan is off the board.

Also - for fun - KenPom tracks chances of a winless record.

BCU is picked to lose every remaining game in the ACC, with a 1.8% chance of doing the donut.

 

[ucp990411]

Michigan is off the board.

Also - for fun - KenPom tracks chances of a winless record.

BCU is picked to lose every remaining game in the ACC, with a 1.8% chance of doing the donut.

Good for them. Good move to invite them ACC

 

[willie99]

Illinois just won at Iowa, hence we're better now than we were just a few hours ago

Whoop whoop whoop

 

[pepband99]

Wow - this list got shredded this weekend (including, unfortunately, BCU)

Gonzaga now at 33% chance
dook up to 10%

...and that's it. This is more what would be expected.
Everyone else either lost, or has a pick to lose (including us, @SJU)

 

[MJ1]

Michigan is off the board.

Also - for fun - KenPom tracks chances of a winless record.

BCU is picked to lose every remaining game in the ACC, with a 1.8% chance of doing the donut.

Leave it to Syracuse to screw that up.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Leave it to Syracuse to screw that up.

Talk about a conference realignment clown show.

 

[ucp990411]

Michigan is off the board.

Also - for fun - KenPom tracks chances of a winless record.

BCU is picked to lose every remaining game in the ACC, with a 1.8% chance of doing the donut.

And then they played Syracuse.