Conference top-heavy metrics | The Boneyard

Conference top-heavy metrics

pepband99

pepband99

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An unbelievable metric i found this morning.

As of today, there are 8 conferences where the best team is currently predicted to run the table in Kenpom (with % chance):

Michigan (B10) 7.7%
Arizona (B12) 2%
Gonzaga (WCC) 28.2% (!)
Vanderbilt (SEC) 0.8% <-- this one shocked me
UConn (BE) 3.2%
Utah St (MW) 0.5%
Yale (Ivy) 5.3%
High Point (Big South) 11.1%

I can't ever remember this lasting this late, with this many conferences.
 
What do you mean by "predicted to run the table"? Do you mean the probability of winning each game is over 50%? If so, while it may be noteworthy, it does not mean the favored teams are predicted to run the table. Your own list shows that each team has little-to-no chance of running the table (except Gonzaga).
 
2 different measures.

It means on strict W/L basis, KenPom has a W.

The % chance is indeed more meaningful, as it accounts for close margins and variability.

But it’s still noteworthy that 8 teams, at this point in season, even have a >0 chance. I would expect a number of 4 or less, at this point.
 
Get a Job said:
What do you mean by "predicted to run the table"? Do you mean the probability of winning each game is over 50%? If so, while it may be noteworthy, it does not mean the favored teams are predicted to run the table. Your own list shows that each team has little-to-no chance of running the table (except Gonzaga).
Expand ...

I assumed the ultimate % was derived by multiplying the team's % likelihood of a win in the next game vs the % for the next game, and so on.

So if you have a 80% chance to win each of the next 3 games, your chance of "running that table" and winning all 3 is 51.2%.
 
An update - I included dook as i didn't include them earlier (because their projected loss is to Michigan, so OOC), so we're up to 9!

Really an amazingly top-heavy conference metrics year, so far.

Michigan (B10) 4.6% <-- big drop here with their Penn St game. @nelsonmuntz will be confused by this
Arizona (B12) 2.2%
Gonzaga (WCC) 28%
Duke (ACC) 3.2%
Vanderbilt (SEC) 1.1%
UConn (BE) 3.6%
Utah St (MW) 0.7%
Yale (Ivy) 5.2%
High Point (Big South) 12.4%
 
pepband99 said:
An update - I included dook as i didn't include them earlier (because their projected loss is to Michigan, so OOC), so we're up to 9!

Really an amazingly top-heavy conference metrics year, so far.

Michigan (B10) 4.6% <-- big drop here with their Penn St game. @nelsonmuntz will be confused by this
Arizona (B12) 2.2%
Gonzaga (WCC) 28%
Duke (ACC) 3.2%
Vanderbilt (SEC) 1.1%
UConn (BE) 3.6%
Utah St (MW) 0.7%
Yale (Ivy) 5.2%
High Point (Big South) 12.4%
Expand ...
Welcome to the world of NIL, top heavy basketball. Where the lower fish feed the higher fish.

In a system where lower teams are the supply for higher teams, this kinda stuff is gonna trend.
 
Last edited:
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Michigan is off the board.

Also - for fun - KenPom tracks chances of a winless record.

BCU is picked to lose every remaining game in the ACC, with a 1.8% chance of doing the donut.
 
pepband99 said:
Michigan is off the board.

Also - for fun - KenPom tracks chances of a winless record.

BCU is picked to lose every remaining game in the ACC, with a 1.8% chance of doing the donut.
Expand ...
Good for them. Good move to invite them ACC
 
Wow - this list got shredded this weekend (including, unfortunately, BCU)

Gonzaga now at 33% chance
dook up to 10%

...and that's it. This is more what would be expected.
Everyone else either lost, or has a pick to lose (including us, @SJU)
 
pepband99 said:
Michigan is off the board.

Also - for fun - KenPom tracks chances of a winless record.

BCU is picked to lose every remaining game in the ACC, with a 1.8% chance of doing the donut.
Expand ...
Leave it to Syracuse to screw that up.
 
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Wow - this list came back with a force!

Arizona 9.2%
dook 20.6% <-- shockingly high given the ACC hasn't been awful this year.
Gonzaga 20.3%
UConn 5.9%
Miami(OH) 7.1%
St Louis 15%
Liberty 1.9%
 
pepband99 said:
Wow - this list came back with a force!

Arizona 9.2%
dook 20.6% <-- shockingly high given the ACC hasn't been awful this year.
Gonzaga 20.3%
UConn 5.9%
Miami(OH) 7.1%
St Louis 15%
Liberty 1.9%
Expand ...
Gonzaga is 1/2 through the conf sched and their chance of going undefeated went down ??
 
There are some P4s with some dreadful conference records...so far...

ONE WIN
  • Baylor
  • Florida State
  • Kansas State
  • LSU
  • Maryland
  • Northwestern
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pittsburgh
  • Utah
ZERO WINS
  • Penn State
 
NJHusky said:
Gonzaga is 1/2 through the conf sched and their chance of going undefeated went down ??
Expand ...

Their metrics went down more than their remaining games accounted for.
 
Still chugging along here:

Arizona 8.7%
dook 24.4%
Gonzaga 31.8%
UConn 11%
Miami(OH) 9%
St Louis 22.4%
Liberty 5.2%
 
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pepband99 said:
Still chugging along here:

Arizona 8.7%
dook 24.4%
Gonzaga 31.8%
UConn 11%
Miami(OH) 9%
St Louis 22.4%
Liberty 5.2%
Expand ...
Interesting that Duke is twice plus that of us while the ACC has better teams than the BE. AZ is also close to us, whereas they have no chance of running the B12.
 
RuffRuff said:
Interesting that Duke is twice plus that of us while the ACC has better teams than the BE. AZ is also close to us, whereas they have no chance of running the B12.
Expand ...
Unbalanced schedules. We play everyone 2x, they only get some.

dook has left:
BCU
@UNCheat
@Pitt
Clemson
Cuse
Michigan (not in conference, and not on campus for either, as is dook's tradition)
@Notre Dame
UVA
@NC State
UNCheat

@NC State is really their only questionable game - they should blitz the rest.

With you on Zona - there is no way they are making it through games that include @Kansas, @Houston, @Baylor, Iowa St.
 
pepband99 said:
Unbalanced schedules. We play everyone 2x, they only get some.

dook has left:
BCU
@UNCheat
@Pitt
Clemson
Cuse
Michigan (not in conference, and not on campus for either, as is dook's tradition)
@Notre Dame
UVA
@NC State
UNCheat

@NC State is really their only questionable game - they should blitz the rest.

With you on Zona - there is no way they are making it through games that include @Kansas, @Houston, @Baylor, Iowa St.
Expand ...
ACC is better than the BE only because they have a few very beatable teams in that 15-25 range. I could easily see Duke running that.

I honestly think the only thing that stands in our way is StJ, who qualitatively is likely better than anyone in the ACC beyond Duke. Maybe we trip @Nova.
 
RuffRuff said:
ACC is better than the BE only because they have a few very beatable teams in that 15-25 range. I could easily see Duke running that.

I honestly think the only thing that stands in our way is StJ, who qualitatively is likely better than anyone in the ACC beyond Duke. Maybe we trip @Nova.
Expand ...
Duke could certainly run the ACC table but they have games against 5 ranked opponents; two on the road. I think we'd have a better chance to run the table as opposed to them.
 
The dregs continue to dreg...

TWO WINS
  • Arizona State
  • Baylor
  • Boston College
  • Georgia Tech
  • LSU
  • Northwestern
  • Notre Dame
  • Pittsburgh
  • Providence
  • Rutgers
  • South Carolina
  • Wake Forest
ONE WIN
  • Kansas State
  • Maryland
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Penn State
  • Utah
 
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