Comparing Paige to other 3 Naismih finalists

[SVCBeercats]

Paige has played more minutes than the other three finalists even though she played 2 fewer games than Evans and Boston. Usually posts have a really good field goal percentage. Not Boston – 50.2%! Paige's 53.9% field goal percentage exceeds Evans' 43.2% and Howard's 44.8% by 10.7% and 9.1% respectively. Paige's 47.4% three point field goal percentage buries Evans' 35.3% and Howard's 36.6% by 12.5% and 10.8%. Boston? Try 27.5% trailing Paige by 19.9%. Evans rules at the free throw line shooting 92%! Paige follows by 8.4% or 83.6%. Evans averaged 20 and Howard 20.7 points per game versus Paige's 19.7, Quite a slim margin, However, I expect the POY to be an efficient scorer which Paige is and Evans and Howard are not - relatively speaking. Boston rules relative to rebounds with 303 total and 103 offensive rebounds. Considering her FG% I suspect she pads her Off Rebs by rebounding her missed shots from within the restricted area. Paige contributes least to opponents free throws with only 27 personal fouls. Evans was second best with 41 PFs. Despite playing 2 fewer games than Evans (110 A), Paige is the Assist Queen with 146. The downside is her 62 turnovers which is 7 more than Evans' 55. Boston (42) and Howard (48) were best. However, Paige's assist to turnovers ratio is the highest at 2.4 with Evans closely following at 2.0. Paige is the best thief with 55 steals which is 4 more than Howard. The other two are more law abiding. Boston has 74 blocks and other three are not worth mentioning. Boston must be a finalist based on defense. For such a heralded post her offensive statistics are not POY level. In my totally unbiased opinion Paige is the POY!

Frankly if I am selecting a POY finalist from team which lost 8 or 9 games then I would select Caitlin Clark, not Howard. A lot of marketing happens with these awards. OK! The stats don't show the intangibles and where would these three teams be without these players. Three of the teams have a real chance to win the NCAA national championship. Kentucky isn't a top drawer team.

 

[Childhood]

Paige gets the most votes in AP All America Team and is selected as the POY by ESPN.
I think she has a great chance to win NPOY than any other.

 

[fomalhaut]

Statistically, it's frankly not even close. Bueckers doesn't block many shots and isn't a great rebounder, but is superior in most other categories. Boston is the best rebounder and shot blocker, but the worst passer and shooter of the four. Evans and Howard are high-volume scorers. Add that to being the most important player on perhaps the best team in the country (as a freshman), and it's an easy vote in my view. Paige can't win the Wade, so she ought to win at least one of the other two major awards (Naismith and Wooden)

 

[chrissaran]

It has nothing to do with Paige not being a great rebounder. When you have Olivia, Aaliyah and Evina, there aren't going to be many rebounds left to get.

 

[Golden Husky]

Nice chart @SVCBeercats. As long as voters don't hold her freshman status against her, empirically, it's Paige.

 

[bballnut90]

Paige has played more minutes than the other three finalists even though she played 2 fewer games than Evans and Boston. Usually posts have a really good field goal percentage. Not Boston – 50.2%! Paige's 53.9% field goal percentage exceeds Evans' 43.2% and Howard's 44.8% by 10.7% and 9.1% respectively. Paige's 47.4% three point field goal percentage buries Evans' 35.3% and Howard's 36.6% by 12.5% and 10.8%. Boston? Try 27.5% trailing Paige by 19.9%. Evans rules at the free throw line shooting 92%! Paige follows by 8.4% or 83.6%. Evans averaged 20 and Howard 20.7 points per game versus Paige's 19.7, Quite a slim margin, However, I expect the POY to be an efficient scorer which Paige is and Evans and Howard are not - relatively speaking. Boston rules relative to rebounds with 303 total and 103 offensive rebounds. Considering her FG% I suspect she pads her Off Rebs by rebounding her missed shots from within the restricted area. Paige contributes least to opponents free throws with only 27 personal fouls. Evans was second best with 41 PFs. Despite playing 2 fewer games than Evans (110 A), Paige is the Assist Queen with 146. The downside is her 62 turnovers which is 7 more than Evans' 55. Boston (42) and Howard (48) were best. However, Paige's assist to turnovers ratio is the highest at 2.4 with Evans closely following at 2.0. Paige is the best thief with 55 steals which is 4 more than Howard. The other two are more law abiding. Boston has 74 blocks and other three are not worth mentioning. Boston must be a finalist based on defense. For such a heralded post her offensive statistics are not POY level. In my totally unbiased opinion Paige is the POY!

Frankly if I am selecting a POY finalist from team which lost 8 or 9 games then I would select Caitlin Clark, not Howard. A lot of marketing happens with these awards. OK! The stats don't show the intangibles and where would these three teams be without these players. Three of the teams have a real chance to win the NCAA national championship. Kentucky isn't a top drawer team.

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If I had a top 4 I'd put Bueckers, Clark, Owusu and Smith. Evans and Howard have had nice seasons but their teams have underperformed and I dont see either as POY worthy. Boston has had a good season but I think the 4 i mentioned have been better.

Owusu is getting completely overlooked for all awards which is a shame since she's having a spectacular season and has Maryland in a position with a real shot at winning a title. Clark has put up just insane numbers for a decent team. I agree she should be on there over Howard. Smith would be my pick over Evans too due to overall numbers and team success. All of Howard, Evans and Boston have had good but not spectacular seasons, where the other 4 have been spectacular all year.

And Paige is my POY pick.

 

[daggittydog]

Boston and Howard rebound more BUT also foul more giving their opponent more opportunities to score from foul shots. Stats easily prove PAIGE, PAIGE!!!!!

 

[Wbbfan1]

Caitlin Clark Stats.

Season	Team	Type	G	Min	FGM	FGA	FG%	3PM	3PA	3P%	FTM	FTA	FT%	OR	DR	Reb	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	Pts
2020-21	IOWA	Reg	23	33	9.1	18.7	48.7	4.0	9.5	42.0	5.2	6.0	85.6	0.7	5.3	6.0	6.8	4.9	1.3	0.5	27.4
2020-21	IOWA	Post	4	36	7.0	18.8	37.3	2.8	8.8	31.4	5.5	6.3	88.0	0.0	5.0	5.0	9.3	4.5	1.0	0.0	22.3

 

[Wbbfan1]

Catlin Stats indicate she should have gotten more consideration to be a First Team All American. It wouldn't surprise be to see Caitlin edge out Paige for WBCA National Freshmen of the Year. It will be interesting to see if Caitlin makes First Team WBCA All American along with Paige. I do think Team Record should also be taken into consideration when determining which player(s) are honored.

 

[oldude]

NPOY awards are never all about stats. Stewie was a 3-time NPOY and never once averaged 20 ppg or 10+ rbpg. What matters most is being the best player on one of the best teams and having the momentum of a media narrative behind you when it comes time for the people who vote on these awards to cast their votes.

That’s what Ionescu had last year and that’s what Paige has this year. Not only does Paige have a greater national profile than any other candidate, but IMO she will actually benefit from the constantly repeated maxim that, “No freshman has ever been named NPOY.”

 

[DefenseBB]

Where's our favorite stat geek @maccca3232 with their analysis of the 4 players? That data should settle the argument once and for all!
Oh our fine colleague, "where forth art thou?"

 

[Bald Husky]

As well as in other sports, there should be two awards, player of the year, and most valuable player. In the Freshmen category I think Caitlin would win for the outstanding stats she has put up this year. For the most valuable, Paige would win in a landslide. They both deserve recognition, and I think the voters will have an easier time voting, seeing the distinction between the two categories and the two candidates accomplishments.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Paige has played more minutes than the other three finalists even though she played 2 fewer games than Evans and Boston. Usually posts have a really good field goal percentage. Not Boston – 50.2%! Paige's 53.9% field goal percentage exceeds Evans' 43.2% and Howard's 44.8% by 10.7% and 9.1% respectively. Paige's 47.4% three point field goal percentage buries Evans' 35.3% and Howard's 36.6% by 12.5% and 10.8%. Boston? Try 27.5% trailing Paige by 19.9%. Evans rules at the free throw line shooting 92%! Paige follows by 8.4% or 83.6%. Evans averaged 20 and Howard 20.7 points per game versus Paige's 19.7, Quite a slim margin, However, I expect the POY to be an efficient scorer which Paige is and Evans and Howard are not - relatively speaking. Boston rules relative to rebounds with 303 total and 103 offensive rebounds. Considering her FG% I suspect she pads her Off Rebs by rebounding her missed shots from within the restricted area. Paige contributes least to opponents free throws with only 27 personal fouls. Evans was second best with 41 PFs. Despite playing 2 fewer games than Evans (110 A), Paige is the Assist Queen with 146. The downside is her 62 turnovers which is 7 more than Evans' 55. Boston (42) and Howard (48) were best. However, Paige's assist to turnovers ratio is the highest at 2.4 with Evans closely following at 2.0. Paige is the best thief with 55 steals which is 4 more than Howard. The other two are more law abiding. Boston has 74 blocks and other three are not worth mentioning. Boston must be a finalist based on defense. For such a heralded post her offensive statistics are not POY level. In my totally unbiased opinion Paige is the POY!

Frankly if I am selecting a POY finalist from team which lost 8 or 9 games then I would select Caitlin Clark, not Howard. A lot of marketing happens with these awards. OK! The stats don't show the intangibles and where would these three teams be without these players. Three of the teams have a real chance to win the NCAA national championship. Kentucky isn't a top drawer team.

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It is hilarious when the data, taken together, amount to a jaw-dropping slam dunk! Thanks for this!! It's no contest!!!! Paige!!!

 

[sylverstar]

The Naismith Fan Vote is now open. You can vote once a day

 

[eebmg]

The Naismith Fan Vote is now open. You can vote once a day

They make you vote for all the categories.

 

[Cuango]

Boston and Howard rebound more BUT also foul more giving their opponent more opportunities to score from foul shots. Stats easily prove PAIGE, PAIGE!!!!!

I think the whole thing is a farce! If you look at things objectively, Paige and Clark are head and shoulders above the others. How can Boston especially, be picked over Clark, who has given us a season for the ages really, especially when you consider that she is a freshman. The way I see it is that, even though she also has had a season for the ages, Paige has to go to intangibles to justify her winning over Clark. Those two should be the favorites followed by Evans, Cunane, and maybe Howard. Boston should not even be there! I have nothing against Boston but she simply has not had an All American season. How could she when her coach spent most of the season allowing her average to poor shooting guards to dominate the shot counts? The most dominant post in the country had at least two games where she took 4 total shots each game and scored (I believe) 4 and 7 points respectively. She had other games where she went 2/10 with 5 points, 4/14 9 points. Again, this really imo speaks more to either Dawn’s poor coaching or Boston’s motor/desire than to her evident skill and potential as a player. However, these performances (for whatever reason) are not All American level play! Everyone can have a bad game but she has simply had too many this year to warrant being considered for POY honors.

 

[Gurleyman]

I think the whole thing is a farce! If you look at things objectively, Paige and Clark are head and shoulders above the others. How can Boston especially, be picked over Clark, who has given us a season for the ages really, especially when you consider that she is a freshman. The way I see it is that, even though she also has had a season for the ages, Paige has to go to intangibles to justify her winning over Clark. Those two should be the favorites followed by Evans, Cunane, and maybe Howard. Boston should not even be there! I have nothing against Boston but she simply has not had an All American season. How could she when her coach spent most of the season allowing her average to poor shooting guards to dominate the shot counts? The most dominant post in the country had at least two games where she took 4 total shots each game and scored (I believe) 4 and 7 points respectively. She had other games where she went 2/10 with 5 points, 4/14 9 points. Again, this really imo speaks more to either Dawn’s poor coaching or Boston’s motor/desire than to her evident skill and potential as a player. However, these performances (for whatever reason) are not All American level play! Everyone can have a bad game but she has simply had too many this year to warrant being considered for POY honors.

Clark‘s team finished in seventh place in their league. And Paige shot better (54-47-84) turned it over way less (2.5 to 1 A/TO ratio), and contributed to the third best team defense in the country (50.5 ppg), while Clark contributed to the worst (81 ppg). Those are tangibles.

 

[UcMiami]

They make you vote for all the categories.

I think you only have to select one person to vote for - I hit vote without selecting anyone because I thought it would be another screen and the message read 'You mus vote for at least 1'

 

[Childhood]

I think the whole thing is a farce! If you look at things objectively, Paige and Clark are head and shoulders above the others. How can Boston especially, be picked over Clark, who has given us a season for the ages really, especially when you consider that she is a freshman. The way I see it is that, even though she also has had a season for the ages, Paige has to go to intangibles to justify her winning over Clark. Those two should be the favorites followed by Evans, Cunane, and maybe Howard. Boston should not even be there! I have nothing against Boston but she simply has not had an All American season. How could she when her coach spent most of the season allowing her average to poor shooting guards to dominate the shot counts? The most dominant post in the country had at least two games where she took 4 total shots each game and scored (I believe) 4 and 7 points respectively. She had other games where she went 2/10 with 5 points, 4/14 9 points. Again, this really imo speaks more to either Dawn’s poor coaching or Boston’s motor/desire than to her evident skill and potential as a player. However, these performances (for whatever reason) are not All American level play! Everyone can have a bad game but she has simply had too many this year to warrant being considered for POY honors.

No, like @oldude said, it's not all about stat.
James Harden didn't earn any All-NBA team honour in Year 2016 as his team not having a good record even though his stat was outstanding. And same to LeBron, he was only selected as the All-NBA 3rd team with a really bad regular season record in Lakers (Actually I was very shocked he could earn that).
I'm surprised some of you take the individual stat so seriously. Winning is still very important.

 

[UcMiami]

The Naismith Fan Vote is now open. You can vote once a day

I got a specific vote thread posted and pinned.

 

[darkstar1]

Stats, schmatz. Best player on best team. End of analysis.

 

[Cuango]

Clark‘s team finished in seventh place in their league. And Paige shot better (54-47-84) turned it over way less (2.5 to 1 A/TO ratio), and contributed to the third best team defense in the country (50.5 ppg), while Clark contributed to the worst (81 ppg). Those are tangibles.

I can certainly see the argument for Paige, what bothers me is the contention by many that Clark is not even in the running. That’s not even true vis a vis Paige much less the other three. She (Clark) certainly had a better case than Boston, Howard and Evans and there is at least an argument to be made that it was better than Paige’s too. Imo, of course. The defense argument is meaningless. How can you quantify the relative contributions of Paige and Clark to their relative teams defense? Steals yes, but the rest?

 

[Cuango]

Stats, schmatz. Best player on best team. End of analysis.

Admirably short, to the point, and wrong! How many MVPs in the NBA don’t play on the championship winning team? Quite a few. You do not have to play on the best team to be the best player!

 

[happymonsters]

Admirably short, to the point, and wrong! How many MVPs in the NBA don’t play on the championship winning team? Quite a few. You do not have to play on the best team to be the best player!

The NBA MVP is a regular season award, like NPOY, and almost always goes to a player on an elite team. How many MVPs are on a non-playoff team or even a low-seeded playoff team? Russell Westbrook a few years ago comes to mind, but it's not often.

 

[bballnut90]

Admirably short, to the point, and wrong! How many MVPs in the NBA don’t play on the championship winning team? Quite a few. You do not have to play on the best team to be the best player!

Agreed. Players like Megan Gustafson, A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum were on teams that were never in consideration for a title but deservedly won POY.

 

[oldude]

Agreed. Players like Megan Gustafson, A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum were on teams that were never in consideration for a title but deservedly won POY.

?
Plum’s Washington team made it to the FF where they lost a close game to Syracuse in the semis. Gustafson & Wilson were both on conference championship teams at Iowa & SC respectively.

 

[SCGamecock]

?
Plum’s Washington team made it to the FF where they lost a close game to Syracuse in the semis. Gustafson & Wilson were both on conference championship teams at Iowa & SC respectively.

Speaking for BBallnut re: SC/Wilson.. I kinda get where they’re going.. Wilson won NPOY her senior year and while SC was good that year not many of us expected that team to win a title. That team had deficiencies all season. Had Gray and Davis returned instead of leaving early then it’d be a different story. Elite Eight was the ceiling for the ‘17-‘18 team and they hit it.

 

[oldude]

Speaking for BBallnut re: SC/Wilson.. I kinda get where they’re going.. Wilson won NPOY her senior year and while SC was good that year not many of us expected that team to win a title. That team had deficiencies all season. Had Gray and Davis returned instead of leaving early then it’d be a different story. Elite Eight was the ceiling for the ‘17-‘18 team and they hit it.

I got that too. My contention is not that a player needs to be on the national championship team. The votes are cast well before the FF. But it is important that the NPOY be the best player on a conference championship team and have a media narrative that supports their candidacy throughout the season.

In Wilson’s case, she was the returning star of the prior year’s national champions, the well publicized, odds on favorite to be the NPOY before the season ever started and she lead her team to the SEC championship.

 

[bballnut90]

?
Plum’s Washington team made it to the FF where they lost a close game to Syracuse in the semis. Gustafson & Wilson were both on conference championship teams at Iowa & SC respectively.

Plum won POY when her team was a Sweet 16 team. The game you're referencing too vs Syracuse was when she was a junior (and they got slaughtered by Syracuse).

Iowa and SC were blown out in the Elite 8 and never were ranked number one or viewed as strong title threats. All three of those players deservedly won NPOY that year despite being on teams that weren't close to being the best team in the country so saying "best player + best team = POY" isn't always accurate which makes it a weak argument IMO. That's the main point I'm trying to make.

 

[oldude]

Plum won POY when her team was a Sweet 16 team. The game you're referencing too vs Syracuse was when she was a junior (and they got slaughtered by Syracuse).

Iowa and SC were blown out in the Elite 8 and never were ranked number one or viewed as strong title threats. All three of those players deservedly won NPOY that year despite being on teams that weren't close to being the best team in the country so saying "best player + best team = POY" isn't always accurate which makes it a weak argument IMO. That's the main point I'm trying to make.

My point has been that the best team in the nation is not necessarily a factor, and is never really determined until the NCAA championship game, weeks after everyone has voted on NPOY awards. Being the best player on a conference championship team ( P5 + whichever conference UConn is in) does matter. Of the 3 players you cite, only Plum came up short on a 26-9 team.

But my second criteria, having a media narrative necessary to push any player to a NPOY was there. In Plum’s case it was her effort to achieve the holy grail of shooting 50/40/90, while breaking the all-time WBB scoring record.

One additional point. I think it’s essential that a player considered for NPOY earn their CPOY. That is one reason why I discount Caitlin Clark’s chances to earn NPOY.