Commitments plummet amid big changes in recruiting

[HW611]

What is your argument, this is going in circles? His benefits at a point before he knew what his NBA career would look like would be:

NIL $$
Visibility, better competition
Ability to win a championship

Why is any mid major worth a dime going into the portal?

NIL and ability to win a championship sure. He clearly didn’t need the visibility or the better competition to become a lottery pick.

And are those very short term goals worth him potentially having a set back learning a new system and not being a lottery pick?

 

[RuffRuff]

NIL and ability win a championship sure. He clearly didn’t need the visibility or the better competition to become a lottery pick.

And are those very short term goals worth him potentially having a set back learning a new system and not being a lottery pick?

Brother, why is any talented mid major doing it today? Every.single.one. They should follow your logic? C'mon dude, at some point you just like hearing yourself.

 

[AdamaNation]

This is going to lead to less freshmen going to top programs. If I’m a coach I would prefer to give money to the proven, transfer, over the unproven. Top players will get theirs. The rest will might get theirs at lower programs that they will transfer from the next year. As we have been told don’t look for a big freshman class coming in anymore.

This is my theory for the ny giants. Trade your picks and sign veterans and 2nd contract players.

 

[HooperScooper]

The NCAA is such a mess. You have an AD of a P4 program suggesting they should cheat because if they don't they won't be able to compete because everyone else is going to cheat. How did they get here?

"So you have to decide, as an athletic director, are you gonna get out in this lane that you know you're not supposed to be in and operate without the highest level of integrity -- or do you wanna stay in these two lanes?" Yurachek said. "And that's where the rub is coming right now in college athletics. And until we get our enforcement agency up and running, you're gonna continue to have schools operating in that third lane. And that's a bad place to be, in my opinion. It's bad for college athletics. And I don't wanna operate there. But, I think, to be competitive, we may have to figure out what that third lane looks like for the University of Arkansas."

Arkansas AD Hunter Yurachek frustrated with state of recruiting, suggests breaking rules might be needed

Confusion over NIL rules and the House Settlement could force schools to travel in a lane they don't want to be in, Yurachek said

www.cbssports.com

 

[HW611]

Brother, why is any talented mid major doing it today? Every.single.one. They should follow your logic? C'mon dude, at some point you just like hearing yourself.

The two points we agreed on. I’m not sure why you’re disregarding the lack of success after college these players have been having.

There hasn’t been one lottery pick from that group yet. But yes, they get more money and a “chance” at a championship. Which is cool for the players who don’t think they have a future after college.

 

[RuffRuff]

The two points we agreed on. I’m not sure why you’re disregarding the lack of success after college these players have been having.

There hasn’t been one lottery pick from that group yet. But yes, they get more money and a “chance” at a championship. Which is cool for the players who don’t think they have a future after college.

Not recognizing their lack of success, as NBA talent has a way of rising to the top. He could have gotten drafted higher perhaps, but all moot. They were all pre-portal, so no point in arguing the "what ifs". It was a different time/system. In today's world, same players would have 99% went into the portal for many reasons.

 

[HW611]

Not recognizing their lack of success, as NBA talent has a way of rising to the top. He could have gotten drafted higher perhaps, but all moot. They were all pre-portal, so no point in arguing the "what ifs". It was a different time/system. In today's world, same players would have 99% went into the portal for many reasons.

We don’t have to play a what if game.

The facts as they stand are that mid majors always had success when it came to getting drafted high and making an impact in the NBA.

From the 2023-2025 drafts (where this transfer portal has been a thing), no transfer ups have gone lottery. In the 3 drafts previously we had two in Obi Toppin (Dayton) and JWill.

This not counting guys from Memphis and Gonzaga because it’d be a lot more (5 from those schools) but they aren’t normal mid majors.

Until those guys start going lottery I don’t know how it’s fair to say they are doing this for development, exposure, and future success reasons. Because the facts are showing that’s not actually helping them.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

The NCAA is such a mess. You have an AD of a P4 program suggesting they should cheat because if they don't they won't be able to compete because everyone else is going to cheat. How did they get here?

"So you have to decide, as an athletic director, are you gonna get out in this lane that you know you're not supposed to be in and operate without the highest level of integrity -- or do you wanna stay in these two lanes?" Yurachek said. "And that's where the rub is coming right now in college athletics. And until we get our enforcement agency up and running, you're gonna continue to have schools operating in that third lane. And that's a bad place to be, in my opinion. It's bad for college athletics. And I don't wanna operate there. But, I think, to be competitive, we may have to figure out what that third lane looks like for the University of Arkansas."

Arkansas AD Hunter Yurachek frustrated with state of recruiting, suggests breaking rules might be needed

Confusion over NIL rules and the House Settlement could force schools to travel in a lane they don't want to be in, Yurachek said

www.cbssports.com

lol why would you openly admit that “you might have to cheat” as an AD

 

[RuffRuff]

We don’t have to play a what if game.

The facts as they stand are that mid majors always had success when it came to getting drafted high and making an impact in the NBA.

From the 2023-2025 drafts (where this transfer portal has been a thing), no transfer ups have gone lottery. In the 3 drafts previously we had two in Obi Toppin (Dayton) and JWill.

This not counting guys from Memphis and Gonzaga because it’d be a lot more (5 from those schools) but they aren’t normal mid majors.

Until those guys start going lottery I don’t know how it’s fair to say they are doing this for development, exposure, and future success reasons. Because the facts are showing that’s not actually helping them.

The vast majority of lottery picks will be one and done freshmen. Cedric Howard was lottery, Clayton went 18th. Plenty of first rounders are transfers up (Wolf). If we dice it subjectively we can support your claim.

 

[HW611]

The vast majority of lottery picks will be one and done freshmen. Cedric Howard was lottery, Clayton went 18th. Plenty of first rounders are transfers up (Wolf). If we dice it subjectively we can support your claim.

Missed Cedric Howard. For some reason I might have thought that was Juwan’s son.

I’m not counting just first rounders because anyone can be a first rounder for the most part. I’m zeroing in on players with star capabilities like the examples I brought up from the past (who were all lottery picks).

We’ll see if Wolf can be a consistent starter in today’s NBA but the Cedric Howard example was fair.

 

[RuffRuff]

Missed Cedric Howard. For some reason I might have thought that was Juwan’s son.

I’m not counting just first rounders because anyone can be a first rounder for the most part. I’m zeroing in on players with star capabilities like the examples I brought up from the past (who were all lottery picks).

We’ll see if Wolf can be a consistent starter in today’s NBA but the Cedric Howard example was fair.

If you look at the last two years as the most relevant data set, you'll find that there are probably as many transfers (Devin Carter transferred), than there are straight through players. Kalel Ware transferred. Any diff is immaterial. Lot's of chance in how someone develops and becomes an NBA prospect, might as well get your $$, exposure and chance to win. The reality of the upper first round is that it's majority freshmen and euros.

 

[HW611]

If you look at the last two years as the most relevant data set, you'll find that there are probably as many transfers (Devin Carter transferred), than there are straight through players. Kalel Ware transferred. Any diff is immaterial. Lot's of chance in how someone develops and becomes an NBA prospect, might as well get your $$, exposure and chance to win. The reality of the upper first round is that it's majority freshmen and euros.

Didn’t know Carter was a transfer but I did see Ware. I specified transfer ups for a reason when talking about guys coming from the mid majors to P4. A lot of the things being discussed doesn’t really apply when you’re going from Oregon to Indiana.

It is a big reality but damn, it seems like when those mid majors break through they have a high hit rate now that we’re doing the research.

 

[HuskyHawk]

What an absolute disaster. I almost believe that Hurley considered stepping away now.

I think these kids are getting terrible advice. The NCAA needs to register the agents and require mandatory CLE on the rules and realities of what is payable by schools so the agents can properly advise clients. If you can get what was a free scholarship to a good school and now add $100k, jump on that. Take it every time. Maximizing up front payouts should only be the priority of very poor kids, if anyone. It is short term thinking.

Here's how I think about it. A high end 4 star with some strong offers. Maybe he's NBA potential, maybe not. Can probably play in Europe or perhaps get a great education and thrive elsewhere like Bilas. That kid needs some long term thinking. If he can land at UConn or UNC, but not if he demands 3X the money, get to the place you want to be. Some of these kids turning down say, $50k and a scholarship aren't going to get signed at all or will end up playing at a MAC school for nothing.

 

[RuffRuff]

What an absolute disaster. I almost believe that Hurley considered stepping away now.

I think these kids are getting terrible advice. The NCAA needs to register the agents and require mandatory CLE on the rules and realities of what is payable by schools so the agents can properly advise clients. If you can get what was a free scholarship to a good school and now add $100k, jump on that. Take it every time. Maximizing up front payouts should only be the priority of very poor kids, if anyone. It is short term thinking.

Here's how I think about it. A high end 4 star with some strong offers. Maybe he's NBA potential, maybe not. Can probably play in Europe or perhaps get a great education and thrive elsewhere like Bilas. That kid needs some long term thinking. If he can land at UConn or UNC, but not if he demands 3X the money, get to the place you want to be. Some of these kids turning down say, $50k and a scholarship aren't going to get signed at all or will end up playing at a MAC school for nothing.

It's why Pitino is avoiding this level altogether. If we look at drafted freshmen in 2025 (18 out of 30 picks), besides Duke, how many drove winning, or at least contributed to it in a substantial way?

1. Mavericks draft Cooper Flagg (Duke)

2. Spurs draft Dylan Harper (Rutgers)

3. 76ers draft VJ Edgecombe (Baylor)

4. Hornets draft Kon Knueppel (Duke)

5. Jazz draft Ace Bailey (Rutgers)

6. Wizards draft Tre Johnson (Texas)

7. Pelicans draft Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma)

8. Nets draft Egor Demin (BYU)

10. Rockets draft Khaman Maluach (Duke) – Traded to Suns

13. Hawks draft Derik Queen (Maryland) – Traded to Pelicans

14. Spurs draft Carter Bryant (Arizona)

15. Thunder draft Thomas Sorber (Georgetown)

20. Heat draft Kasparas Jakučionis (Illinois)

21. Jazz draft Will Riley (Illinois) – Traded to Wizards

22. Hawks draft Drake Powell (North Carolina) – Traded to Nets

23. Pelicans draft Asa Newell (Georgia) – Traded to Hawks

25. Magic draft Jase Richardson (Michigan State)

29. Suns draft Liam McNeeley (Connecticut) – Traded to Hornets


Richardson, Demin and Queen? 6 out of 18, 3 on one team? Not a lot of ROI in my book. Market is still adjusting to this stuff, last year was a massive over index because of a really talented class and capless spend. The more data that supports freshmen are over-valued, in a weak class like this, the more it will force a correction especially with the new ceiling. I'm sure the current crop comes to their senses once the agent greed settles.

Last year I believe it was Ament, Burries and Peat that held out until the portal period. I'll be curious how many do the same this year as could be playing with fire.

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's why Pitino is avoiding this level altogether. If we look at drafted freshmen in 2025 (18 out of 30 picks), besides Duke, how many drove winning, or at least contributed to it in a substantial way?

1. Mavericks draft Cooper Flagg (Duke)

2. Spurs draft Dylan Harper (Rutgers)

3. 76ers draft VJ Edgecombe (Baylor)

4. Hornets draft Kon Knueppel (Duke)

5. Jazz draft Ace Bailey (Rutgers)

6. Wizards draft Tre Johnson (Texas)

7. Pelicans draft Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma)

8. Nets draft Egor Demin (BYU)

10. Rockets draft Khaman Maluach (Duke) – Traded to Suns

13. Hawks draft Derik Queen (Maryland) – Traded to Pelicans

14. Spurs draft Carter Bryant (Arizona)

15. Thunder draft Thomas Sorber (Georgetown)

20. Heat draft Kasparas Jakučionis (Illinois)

21. Jazz draft Will Riley (Illinois) – Traded to Wizards

22. Hawks draft Drake Powell (North Carolina) – Traded to Nets

23. Pelicans draft Asa Newell (Georgia) – Traded to Hawks

25. Magic draft Jase Richardson (Michigan State)

29. Suns draft Liam McNeeley (Connecticut) – Traded to Hornets


Richardson, Demin and Queen? 6 out of 18, 3 on one team? Not a lot of ROI in my book. Market is still adjusting to this stuff, last year was a massive over index because of a really talented class and capless spend. The more data that supports freshmen are over-valued, in a weak class like this, the more it will force a correction especially with the new ceiling. I'm sure the current crop comes to their senses once the agent greed settles.

Last year I believe it was Ament, Burries and Peat that held out until the portal period. I'll be curious how many do the same this year as could be playing with fire.

I'm not sure drafted freshmen are really the metric. I'd say UConn had success with Sanogo, Clingan, Castle, Karaban, Hawkins, Solo and other recruited players. Many teams did. I'm not sure you can win with just transfers. But I don't think "break the bank" freshman are a good value, those are likely to get the most $ from desperate teams, like K-State.

It will be critical to recruit kids who are willing to play for modest pay and who will stay 2-3-4 years. I think a player like Furphy can pay huge dividends two years from now. Knowledge in the system, experience, really valuable. It seems like the challenge is that a whole lot of $50-100k guys think they can get $1M.