Commitments plummet amid big changes in recruiting

[RuffRuff]

Missed Cedric Howard. For some reason I might have thought that was Juwan’s son.

I’m not counting just first rounders because anyone can be a first rounder for the most part. I’m zeroing in on players with star capabilities like the examples I brought up from the past (who were all lottery picks).

We’ll see if Wolf can be a consistent starter in today’s NBA but the Cedric Howard example was fair.

If you look at the last two years as the most relevant data set, you'll find that there are probably as many transfers (Devin Carter transferred), than there are straight through players. Kalel Ware transferred. Any diff is immaterial. Lot's of chance in how someone develops and becomes an NBA prospect, might as well get your $$, exposure and chance to win. The reality of the upper first round is that it's majority freshmen and euros.

 

[HW611]

If you look at the last two years as the most relevant data set, you'll find that there are probably as many transfers (Devin Carter transferred), than there are straight through players. Kalel Ware transferred. Any diff is immaterial. Lot's of chance in how someone develops and becomes an NBA prospect, might as well get your $$, exposure and chance to win. The reality of the upper first round is that it's majority freshmen and euros.

Didn’t know Carter was a transfer but I did see Ware. I specified transfer ups for a reason when talking about guys coming from the mid majors to P4. A lot of the things being discussed doesn’t really apply when you’re going from Oregon to Indiana.

It is a big reality but damn, it seems like when those mid majors break through they have a high hit rate now that we’re doing the research.

 

[HuskyHawk]

What an absolute disaster. I almost believe that Hurley considered stepping away now.

I think these kids are getting terrible advice. The NCAA needs to register the agents and require mandatory CLE on the rules and realities of what is payable by schools so the agents can properly advise clients. If you can get what was a free scholarship to a good school and now add $100k, jump on that. Take it every time. Maximizing up front payouts should only be the priority of very poor kids, if anyone. It is short term thinking.

Here's how I think about it. A high end 4 star with some strong offers. Maybe he's NBA potential, maybe not. Can probably play in Europe or perhaps get a great education and thrive elsewhere like Bilas. That kid needs some long term thinking. If he can land at UConn or UNC, but not if he demands 3X the money, get to the place you want to be. Some of these kids turning down say, $50k and a scholarship aren't going to get signed at all or will end up playing at a MAC school for nothing.

 

[RuffRuff]

What an absolute disaster. I almost believe that Hurley considered stepping away now.

I think these kids are getting terrible advice. The NCAA needs to register the agents and require mandatory CLE on the rules and realities of what is payable by schools so the agents can properly advise clients. If you can get what was a free scholarship to a good school and now add $100k, jump on that. Take it every time. Maximizing up front payouts should only be the priority of very poor kids, if anyone. It is short term thinking.

Here's how I think about it. A high end 4 star with some strong offers. Maybe he's NBA potential, maybe not. Can probably play in Europe or perhaps get a great education and thrive elsewhere like Bilas. That kid needs some long term thinking. If he can land at UConn or UNC, but not if he demands 3X the money, get to the place you want to be. Some of these kids turning down say, $50k and a scholarship aren't going to get signed at all or will end up playing at a MAC school for nothing.

It's why Pitino is avoiding this level altogether. If we look at drafted freshmen in 2025 (18 out of 30 picks), besides Duke, how many drove winning, or at least contributed to it in a substantial way?

1. Mavericks draft Cooper Flagg (Duke)

2. Spurs draft Dylan Harper (Rutgers)

3. 76ers draft VJ Edgecombe (Baylor)

4. Hornets draft Kon Knueppel (Duke)

5. Jazz draft Ace Bailey (Rutgers)

6. Wizards draft Tre Johnson (Texas)

7. Pelicans draft Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma)

8. Nets draft Egor Demin (BYU)

10. Rockets draft Khaman Maluach (Duke) – Traded to Suns

13. Hawks draft Derik Queen (Maryland) – Traded to Pelicans

14. Spurs draft Carter Bryant (Arizona)

15. Thunder draft Thomas Sorber (Georgetown)

20. Heat draft Kasparas Jakučionis (Illinois)

21. Jazz draft Will Riley (Illinois) – Traded to Wizards

22. Hawks draft Drake Powell (North Carolina) – Traded to Nets

23. Pelicans draft Asa Newell (Georgia) – Traded to Hawks

25. Magic draft Jase Richardson (Michigan State)

29. Suns draft Liam McNeeley (Connecticut) – Traded to Hornets


Richardson, Demin and Queen? 6 out of 18, 3 on one team? Not a lot of ROI in my book. Market is still adjusting to this stuff, last year was a massive over index because of a really talented class and capless spend. The more data that supports freshmen are over-valued, in a weak class like this, the more it will force a correction especially with the new ceiling. I'm sure the current crop comes to their senses once the agent greed settles.

Last year I believe it was Ament, Burries and Peat that held out until the portal period. I'll be curious how many do the same this year as could be playing with fire.

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's why Pitino is avoiding this level altogether. If we look at drafted freshmen in 2025 (18 out of 30 picks), besides Duke, how many drove winning, or at least contributed to it in a substantial way?

1. Mavericks draft Cooper Flagg (Duke)

2. Spurs draft Dylan Harper (Rutgers)

3. 76ers draft VJ Edgecombe (Baylor)

4. Hornets draft Kon Knueppel (Duke)

5. Jazz draft Ace Bailey (Rutgers)

6. Wizards draft Tre Johnson (Texas)

7. Pelicans draft Jeremiah Fears (Oklahoma)

8. Nets draft Egor Demin (BYU)

10. Rockets draft Khaman Maluach (Duke) – Traded to Suns

13. Hawks draft Derik Queen (Maryland) – Traded to Pelicans

14. Spurs draft Carter Bryant (Arizona)

15. Thunder draft Thomas Sorber (Georgetown)

20. Heat draft Kasparas Jakučionis (Illinois)

21. Jazz draft Will Riley (Illinois) – Traded to Wizards

22. Hawks draft Drake Powell (North Carolina) – Traded to Nets

23. Pelicans draft Asa Newell (Georgia) – Traded to Hawks

25. Magic draft Jase Richardson (Michigan State)

29. Suns draft Liam McNeeley (Connecticut) – Traded to Hornets


Richardson, Demin and Queen? 6 out of 18, 3 on one team? Not a lot of ROI in my book. Market is still adjusting to this stuff, last year was a massive over index because of a really talented class and capless spend. The more data that supports freshmen are over-valued, in a weak class like this, the more it will force a correction especially with the new ceiling. I'm sure the current crop comes to their senses once the agent greed settles.

Last year I believe it was Ament, Burries and Peat that held out until the portal period. I'll be curious how many do the same this year as could be playing with fire.

I'm not sure drafted freshmen are really the metric. I'd say UConn had success with Sanogo, Clingan, Castle, Karaban, Hawkins, Solo and other recruited players. Many teams did. I'm not sure you can win with just transfers. But I don't think "break the bank" freshman are a good value, those are likely to get the most $ from desperate teams, like K-State.

It will be critical to recruit kids who are willing to play for modest pay and who will stay 2-3-4 years. I think a player like Furphy can pay huge dividends two years from now. Knowledge in the system, experience, really valuable. It seems like the challenge is that a whole lot of $50-100k guys think they can get $1M.

 

[Greg]

Youre right. And id like to take this time to voice how much that sucks. It's not just nostalgia. Freshmen classes were one of the most exciting and rewarding things about college basketball: following classes of kids who stay for 2-4 years , and maybe win a natty, is the greatest experience for fans of a program.

Just call it pro hoops with unlimited free agency and forget the fans. We are all suckers anyway.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I'm not sure drafted freshmen are really the metric. I'd say UConn had success with Sanogo, Clingan, Castle, Karaban, Hawkins, Solo and other recruited players. Many teams did. I'm not sure you can win with just transfers. But I don't think "break the bank" freshman are a good value, those are likely to get the most $ from desperate teams, like K-State.

It will be critical to recruit kids who are willing to play for modest pay and who will stay 2-3-4 years. I think a player like Furphy can pay huge dividends two years from now. Knowledge in the system, experience, really valuable. It seems like the challenge is that a whole lot of $50-100k guys think they can get $1M.

I would bet the majority of 18 year old D1 high school players feel their worth 1mill or more. This is actually going to be one entertaining aspect of the free for all. I welcome that kind of chaos because it might get them closer to wanting some structure. There's not enough good agents for these kids.