Commitments plummet amid big changes in recruiting

[HW611]

You don't think Cam Spencer will be remembered more for being on UConn than if he became a star on Loyola Maryland?

He’ll be remembered by UConn fans but I don’t think any casual fans care about Spencer the way we do. CBB in general is mostly an afterthought in today’s sports media to the point they don’t even cover high school recruiting like they used to (a director at rivals told me verbatim there’s no money in covering HS basketball these days and it’s all about HS football).

Also he’s a grad transfer so he would’ve been able to spend the year he did with us in any era.

 

[HW611]

But outside of the fans who just want to live in the past I'm not sure who cares about that. You're focusing on stars and claiming they're not benefitting from it, and ignoring the 99.9% of other players who aren't stars and are very clearly benefiting from it

It’s terrible for the ecosystem of American basketball is the major point. People aren’t going to care until the league is fully dominated by the Euros and we start getting stomped out at the Olympics though.

But yay to a mid major being able to transfer up for a chance to experience an elite 8.

 

[Jaydumo20]

There is a whole offseason now where top coaches go show what they’re going to do in the portal to create a new winning roster, and people talking about it. There is the anticipation of how a team will come together. I’d rather have seen all those greats have a chance to actually win a title, play in last weekend. Mid majors are dead as it comes to having a chance and this the new reality, might as well accept it and evolve as a fan (although I know it’s impossible for many here).

There is plenty of reason to transfer up - you’ll definitely get better coaching, you’ll get NIL and you’ll get a chance to win a NC. That’s a lot. Of course if a kid is that talented he’ll find a way to the NBA, but why not make the most of your college experience.

Yes. Well said. We do need to evolve as fans and accept this as I don't think it's going back.

Not that you claimed this, but there also seems to be an underlying thought that detractors are just living in the past. Sometimes the old way is better. As we can see in others areas of society (News, social interaction, quality music output) progress has not been superior.
Kids brought vinyl back. Go to any bar on broadway in Nashville and you hear 95% classic rock and classic country. It's not due to nostalgia.

 

[Mr. French]

Steph Curry went further at Davidson than Seth did at Duke.

Kawhi made it to a sweet 16 before we KO’d him.

The logic of “hey they’ll be able to be seen more” is a farce too. Jimmer became a household name at BYU. Bigger than any of these transfer ups during this era.

Ja was talked about all year at Moorehead St. He was talked about more there than Dalton Knecht in 24 or Walter Clayton in 25.

Ja went to Murray State, not Morehead State.

 

[HW611]

Ja went to Murray State, not Morehead State.

You’re right. I think Keneth Faried is the player from Morehead State. Just so many guys who were perfectly fine and successful at their mid majors to choose from lol

 

[RuffRuff]

Yes. Well said. We do need to evolve as fans and accept this as I don't think it's going back.

Not that you claimed this, but there also seems to be an underlying thought that detractors are just living in the past. Sometimes the old way is better. As we can see in others areas of society (News, social interaction, quality music output) progress has not been superior.
Kids brought vinyl back. Go to any bar on broadway in Nashville and you hear 95% classic rock and classic country. It's not due to nostalgia.

That's art though. Rule of thumb in sports is to always follow the money. The money in collegiate sports isn't in mid majors. As cool as it is for Morehead State to make a run in March, no one is tuning in to see them for the majority of the year. They're not bringing eyeballs to the TV across the masses.

 

[auror]

He’ll be remembered by UConn fans but I don’t think any casual fans care about Spencer the way we do. CBB in general is mostly an afterthought in today’s sports media to the point they don’t even cover high school recruiting like they used to (a director at rivals told me verbatim there’s no money in covering HS basketball these days and it’s all about HS football).

Also he’s a grad transfer so he would’ve been able to spend the year he did with us in any era.

He wouldn't be remembered at all if he was still toiling at Loyola. For every Jimmer there are 20 Antoine Davis's.

Up-transferring dramatically increased his profile.

 

[Inyatkin]

Well one thing for sure is that mid major stars didn’t need saving or to play on a big stage to further their careers. They were doing just fine where they were at.

None of these transfer up stars will ever be as well remembered as the mid major stars from these days. Even the ones without NBA success (Jimmer)

It's not up to you to say who is and isn't "doing just fine," especially with the money on the table these days at big programs.

BYU is a weird exemplar of a mid-major.

Picking out a few anecdotes of players who have done well, including Steph #$^&* Curry, doesn't prove anything.

It's this tendency you have to say something is "for sure," when in fact it's a pretty serious debate, that gets so much vitriol in your direction. Everyone has opinions. Not everyone states them as incontrovertible facts.

 

[RuffRuff]

It's not up to you to say who is and isn't "doing just fine," especially with the money on the table these days at big programs.

BYU is a weird exemplar of a mid-major.

Picking out a few anecdotes of players who have done well, including Steph #$^&* Curry, doesn't prove anything.

It's this tendency you have to say something is "for sure," when in fact it's a pretty serious debate, that gets so much vitriol in your direction. Everyone has opinions. Not everyone states them as incontrovertible facts.

There is a righteousness by using selective facts going on.

Let’s take the kid from St Joes that went early second last year as an example. High level talent that NO one knew about other than junkies that don’t represent the majority. Could have had more exposure, more opportunity to showcase against better competition if he had transferred up, at likely more NIL (like a Yaxel is doing this year).

 

[husky429]

You don't think Cam Spencer will be remembered more for being on UConn than if he became a star on Loyola Maryland?

At this point it's becoming obvious he's a troll. He's just saying stupid things to drive engagement.

 

[HooperScooper]

CBB in general is mostly an afterthought in today’s sports media to the point they don’t even cover high school recruiting like they used to (a director at rivals told me verbatim there’s no money in covering HS basketball these days and it’s all about HS football).

I'm curious why Rivals merged with On3 recently then. They certainly seem to put a lot of resources into basketball recruiting. About a year ago they started covering women's basketball recruiting pretty heavily. There would seem to be less interest in that than the men's.

 

[Jaydumo20]

That's art though. Rule of thumb in sports is to always follow the money. The money in collegiate sports isn't in mid majors. As cool as it is for Morehead State to make a run in March, no one is tuning in to see them for the majority of the year. They're not bringing eyeballs to the TV across the masses.

Are you saying that when sports follow the money it always works out better for the fans?

 

[navery12]

Understood. And that is true. But it is a matter of preference from a fan standpoint. Getting to know a team and growing with them is a joy for a lot of people.
What you, @RuffRuff and I do agree on is that we at least need a structure.

I never really understood that mindset. I'd rather a guy go to a level where he belongs and have UConn caliber players on our roster than watch guys flounder for 3 years and hope they figure it out for a good senior year

 

[pj]

Literally the biggest stars in the league have came from mid majors. I don’t know of one guy who even became an All Star who transferred up.

But somehow this is suppose to be better for players.

Now that NIL is available, maybe the next Ja Morant and Dame Lillard would prefer to spend their second year and third years earning money in college instead of toiling unpaid at Weber State and Murray State.

 

[RuffRuff]

Now that NIL is available, maybe the next Ja Morant and Dame Lillard would prefer to spend their second year and third years earning money in college instead of toiling unpaid at Weber State and Murray State.

Yup, and playing in prime time slots against good competition where we can actually watch them outside of 1-2 games in March.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I never really understood that mindset. I'd rather a guy go to a level where he belongs and have UConn caliber players on our roster than watch guys flounder for 3 years and hope they figure it out for a good senior year

Valid point. Luckily we haven't had to deal with large scale ditches yet.

FWIW, Ive never understood why peole love new country music

 

[HooperScooper]

Similar article from Travis Branham of 247Sports. He delves into more reasons than just financial about why the 2026 class will take time to commit.

With the new limited money a program can legally spend, the financial expectations of top-tier high school recruits aren't matching reality. That will take time to find its level.

"This past offseason set such an unrealistic expectation," a source told CBS Sports. "People saved up collective money, and everyone overspent (in 2025) trying to beat the buzzer with the House Settlement. I don't think that pot will be there (in 2026). You had some really average players that made over $1 million this offseason, and I don't know how many will get that moving forward."

There won't be the same amount of money to spend for the 2026 cycle.

"I don't think kids realize the House settlement means that these big payments will be harder to come by," a source told CBS Sports. "You can't pay a kid $3-4 million. How are you going to fill out a team? They think they can get more money now, but it's the opposite."

There will need to be a readjustment in the expectations for payments with the 2026 class.

"I think these kids and parents are trying to get a feel for the climate," added another source. "They want to get the $1-2 million that they have been hearing, but they won't get that because of the rev share, and the transfer portal is impacting that a lot as well."

Lack of talent, revenue sharing, transfer portal create unique college basketball recruiting cycle for 2026

A weak 2026 class combined with the new math in roster building and the always looming portal, has created a very different type of recruiting landscape

www.cbssports.com

 

[HW611]

I'm curious why Rivals merged with On3 recently then. They certainly seem to put a lot of resources into basketball recruiting. About a year ago they started covering women's basketball recruiting pretty heavily. There would seem to be less interest in that than the men's.

He didn’t give me a ton of insight and I didn’t ask him much because it seemed like a sensitive topic that would’ve affected his job as far as the merger goes.

But there not being a lot of money in it is probably why they’re mostly giving basketball recruiting to the Field of 68 guys instead of hiring their own team to cover it like they do in football. Easier to partner with someone who has a built in base than to make the investment to build their own it seems.

 

[jibsey]

We haven’t seen college basketball’s final edition of transfer rules, and that could once again change everything making freshman recruits more important. This free for all won’t last forever.

 

[HW611]

Now that NIL is available, maybe the next Ja Morant and Dame Lillard would prefer to spend their second year and third years earning money in college instead of toiling unpaid at Weber State and Murray State.

Think the question is how successful actually are these mid majors who transfer up.

Would you rather stay where you are and keep developing to have the chance to be a star/impact player at the next level or move up, get the quickest money but potentially harm your future earnings because you don’t develop as much.

Because at the moment we haven’t seen anything to indicate these transfer ups do well at the next level or even get drafted in the lottery so far. And again, Jalen Williams went lottery for Santa Clara just in 2022 so even going to this decade they’ve been fine where they were.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Think the question is how successful actually are these mid majors who transfer up.

Would you rather stay where you are and keep developing to have the chance to be a star/impact player at the next level or move up, get the quickest money but potentially harm your future earnings because you don’t develop as much.

Because at the moment we haven’t seen anything to indicate these transfer ups do well at the next level or even get drafted in the lottery so far. And again, Jalen Williams went lottery for Santa Clara just in 2022 so even going to this decade they’ve been fine where they were.

I'm on your side with the majority of this. But to play devils advocate to myself as well, Im not sure that Cam or Newt get the kind of NBA opportunity had they stayed at Rutgers or ECU respectively. If you move up, aren't the chances better that you will play for a more accomplished teacher/staff?

 

[RuffRuff]

Think the question is how successful actually are these mid majors who transfer up.

Would you rather stay where you are and keep developing to have the chance to be a star/impact player at the next level or move up, get the quickest money but potentially harm your future earnings because you don’t develop as much.

Because at the moment we haven’t seen anything to indicate these transfer ups do well at the next level or even get drafted in the lottery so far. And again, Jalen Williams went lottery for Santa Clara just in 2022 so even going to this decade they’ve been fine where they were.

Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it works for both programs and athletes. Jalen Williams was before the portal kicked into high gear - believe me, he would have been in it.

 

[HW611]

I'm on your side with the majority of this. But to play devils advocate to myself as well, Im not sure that Cam or Newt get the kind of NBA opportunity had they stayed at Rutgers or ECU respectively. If you move up, aren't the chances better that you will play for a more accomplished teacher/staff?

Cam and Newton were both end of the draft selections. The effect we had was very minimal if the best outcome was the last 5 picks of the draft. It’s a cool story but they aren’t the examples we’d want to use here probably.

Also that’s the train of thought, but in actuality in a lot of cases it can be a set back because you have to learn a brand new system, learn to play on a new team and integrate with your teammates, learn a new environment in general they have to adjust to. Cam didn’t go through that but every transfer we’ve had here so far has gone through an adjustment period that’s very real.

I’m waiting for the first real case of a guy who moved up and it benefited him so much he became a lottery pick that was prepared to make an impact in the NBA. I don’t think that’s happened yet.

Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it works for both programs and athletes. Jalen Williams was before the portal kicked into high gear - believe me, he would have been in it.

But what would have been the benefit outside of short term stuff? He went lottery and he’s thriving at the next level. Who knows what playing for a new coach and learning a new system halfway through his college career could’ve affected him.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Cam and Newton were both end of the draft selections. The effect we had was very minimal if the best outcome was the last 5 picks of the draft. It’s a cool story but they aren’t the examples we’d want to use here probably.

Also that’s the train of thought, but in actuality in a lot of cases it can be a set back because you have to learn a brand new system, learn to play on a new team and integrate with your teammates, learn a new environment in general they have to adjust to. Cam didn’t go through that but every transfer we’ve had here so far has gone through an adjustment period that’s very real.

I’m waiting for the first real case of a guy who moved up and it benefited him so much he became a lottery pick that was prepared to make an impact in the NBA. I don’t think that’s happened yet.

But what would have been the benefit outside of short term stuff? He went lottery and he’s thriving at the next level. Who knows what playing for a new coach and learning a new system halfway through his college career could’ve affected him.

Good points. Especially about continuity.
Our very own staff acknowledges that their system isnt always learned in the first year. We saw Newt, and Hass and AJax and Sanogo and AK and Donovan all grow by leaps and bounds once they learned it, and that took years. The only guy we've ever had that "got it" in one year was Cam. And that is very rare.

 

[RuffRuff]

But what would have been the benefit outside of short term stuff? He went lottery and he’s thriving at the next level. Who knows what playing for a new coach and learning a new system halfway through his college career could’ve affected him.

What is your argument, this is going in circles? His benefits at a point before he knew what his NBA career would look like would be:

NIL $$
Visibility, better competition
Ability to win a championship

Why is any mid major worth a dime going into the portal?