Commitments plummet amid big changes in recruiting | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Commitments plummet amid big changes in recruiting

Yes. Well said. We do need to evolve as fans and accept this as I don't think it's going back.

Not that you claimed this, but there also seems to be an underlying thought that detractors are just living in the past. Sometimes the old way is better. As we can see in others areas of society (News, social interaction, quality music output) progress has not been superior.
Kids brought vinyl back. Go to any bar on broadway in Nashville and you hear 95% classic rock and classic country. It's not due to nostalgia.
That's art though. Rule of thumb in sports is to always follow the money. The money in collegiate sports isn't in mid majors. As cool as it is for Morehead State to make a run in March, no one is tuning in to see them for the majority of the year. They're not bringing eyeballs to the TV across the masses.
 
He’ll be remembered by UConn fans but I don’t think any casual fans care about Spencer the way we do. CBB in general is mostly an afterthought in today’s sports media to the point they don’t even cover high school recruiting like they used to (a director at rivals told me verbatim there’s no money in covering HS basketball these days and it’s all about HS football).

Also he’s a grad transfer so he would’ve been able to spend the year he did with us in any era.
He wouldn't be remembered at all if he was still toiling at Loyola. For every Jimmer there are 20 Antoine Davis's.

Up-transferring dramatically increased his profile.
 
Well one thing for sure is that mid major stars didn’t need saving or to play on a big stage to further their careers. They were doing just fine where they were at.

None of these transfer up stars will ever be as well remembered as the mid major stars from these days. Even the ones without NBA success (Jimmer)
It's not up to you to say who is and isn't "doing just fine," especially with the money on the table these days at big programs.

BYU is a weird exemplar of a mid-major.

Picking out a few anecdotes of players who have done well, including Steph #$^&* Curry, doesn't prove anything.

It's this tendency you have to say something is "for sure," when in fact it's a pretty serious debate, that gets so much vitriol in your direction. Everyone has opinions. Not everyone states them as incontrovertible facts.
 
It's not up to you to say who is and isn't "doing just fine," especially with the money on the table these days at big programs.

BYU is a weird exemplar of a mid-major.

Picking out a few anecdotes of players who have done well, including Steph #$^&* Curry, doesn't prove anything.

It's this tendency you have to say something is "for sure," when in fact it's a pretty serious debate, that gets so much vitriol in your direction. Everyone has opinions. Not everyone states them as incontrovertible facts.
There is a righteousness by using selective facts going on.

Let’s take the kid from St Joes that went early second last year as an example. High level talent that NO one knew about other than junkies that don’t represent the majority. Could have had more exposure, more opportunity to showcase against better competition if he had transferred up, at likely more NIL (like a Yaxel is doing this year).
 
CBB in general is mostly an afterthought in today’s sports media to the point they don’t even cover high school recruiting like they used to (a director at rivals told me verbatim there’s no money in covering HS basketball these days and it’s all about HS football).
I'm curious why Rivals merged with On3 recently then. They certainly seem to put a lot of resources into basketball recruiting. About a year ago they started covering women's basketball recruiting pretty heavily. There would seem to be less interest in that than the men's.
 
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That's art though. Rule of thumb in sports is to always follow the money. The money in collegiate sports isn't in mid majors. As cool as it is for Morehead State to make a run in March, no one is tuning in to see them for the majority of the year. They're not bringing eyeballs to the TV across the masses.

Are you saying that when sports follow the money it always works out better for the fans?
 
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Understood. And that is true. But it is a matter of preference from a fan standpoint. Getting to know a team and growing with them is a joy for a lot of people.
What you, @RuffRuff and I do agree on is that we at least need a structure.
I never really understood that mindset. I'd rather a guy go to a level where he belongs and have UConn caliber players on our roster than watch guys flounder for 3 years and hope they figure it out for a good senior year
 
Literally the biggest stars in the league have came from mid majors. I don’t know of one guy who even became an All Star who transferred up.

But somehow this is suppose to be better for players.

Now that NIL is available, maybe the next Ja Morant and Dame Lillard would prefer to spend their second year and third years earning money in college instead of toiling unpaid at Weber State and Murray State.
 
Now that NIL is available, maybe the next Ja Morant and Dame Lillard would prefer to spend their second year and third years earning money in college instead of toiling unpaid at Weber State and Murray State.
Yup, and playing in prime time slots against good competition where we can actually watch them outside of 1-2 games in March.
 
I never really understood that mindset. I'd rather a guy go to a level where he belongs and have UConn caliber players on our roster than watch guys flounder for 3 years and hope they figure it out for a good senior year
Valid point. Luckily we haven't had to deal with large scale ditches yet.

FWIW, Ive never understood why peole love new country music
 
Similar article from Travis Branham of 247Sports. He delves into more reasons than just financial about why the 2026 class will take time to commit.

With the new limited money a program can legally spend, the financial expectations of top-tier high school recruits aren't matching reality. That will take time to find its level.

"This past offseason set such an unrealistic expectation," a source told CBS Sports. "People saved up collective money, and everyone overspent (in 2025) trying to beat the buzzer with the House Settlement. I don't think that pot will be there (in 2026). You had some really average players that made over $1 million this offseason, and I don't know how many will get that moving forward."

There won't be the same amount of money to spend for the 2026 cycle.

"I don't think kids realize the House settlement means that these big payments will be harder to come by," a source told CBS Sports. "You can't pay a kid $3-4 million. How are you going to fill out a team? They think they can get more money now, but it's the opposite."

There will need to be a readjustment in the expectations for payments with the 2026 class.

"I think these kids and parents are trying to get a feel for the climate," added another source. "They want to get the $1-2 million that they have been hearing, but they won't get that because of the rev share, and the transfer portal is impacting that a lot as well."


 
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I'm curious why Rivals merged with On3 recently then. They certainly seem to put a lot of resources into basketball recruiting. About a year ago they started covering women's basketball recruiting pretty heavily. There would seem to be less interest in that than the men's.
He didn’t give me a ton of insight and I didn’t ask him much because it seemed like a sensitive topic that would’ve affected his job as far as the merger goes.

But there not being a lot of money in it is probably why they’re mostly giving basketball recruiting to the Field of 68 guys instead of hiring their own team to cover it like they do in football. Easier to partner with someone who has a built in base than to make the investment to build their own it seems.
 
We haven’t seen college basketball’s final edition of transfer rules, and that could once again change everything making freshman recruits more important. This free for all won’t last forever.
 
Now that NIL is available, maybe the next Ja Morant and Dame Lillard would prefer to spend their second year and third years earning money in college instead of toiling unpaid at Weber State and Murray State.
Think the question is how successful actually are these mid majors who transfer up.

Would you rather stay where you are and keep developing to have the chance to be a star/impact player at the next level or move up, get the quickest money but potentially harm your future earnings because you don’t develop as much.

Because at the moment we haven’t seen anything to indicate these transfer ups do well at the next level or even get drafted in the lottery so far. And again, Jalen Williams went lottery for Santa Clara just in 2022 so even going to this decade they’ve been fine where they were.
 
Think the question is how successful actually are these mid majors who transfer up.

Would you rather stay where you are and keep developing to have the chance to be a star/impact player at the next level or move up, get the quickest money but potentially harm your future earnings because you don’t develop as much.

Because at the moment we haven’t seen anything to indicate these transfer ups do well at the next level or even get drafted in the lottery so far. And again, Jalen Williams went lottery for Santa Clara just in 2022 so even going to this decade they’ve been fine where they were.
I'm on your side with the majority of this. But to play devils advocate to myself as well, Im not sure that Cam or Newt get the kind of NBA opportunity had they stayed at Rutgers or ECU respectively. If you move up, aren't the chances better that you will play for a more accomplished teacher/staff?
 
Think the question is how successful actually are these mid majors who transfer up.

Would you rather stay where you are and keep developing to have the chance to be a star/impact player at the next level or move up, get the quickest money but potentially harm your future earnings because you don’t develop as much.

Because at the moment we haven’t seen anything to indicate these transfer ups do well at the next level or even get drafted in the lottery so far. And again, Jalen Williams went lottery for Santa Clara just in 2022 so even going to this decade they’ve been fine where they were.
Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it works for both programs and athletes. Jalen Williams was before the portal kicked into high gear - believe me, he would have been in it.
 
I'm on your side with the majority of this. But to play devils advocate to myself as well, Im not sure that Cam or Newt get the kind of NBA opportunity had they stayed at Rutgers or ECU respectively. If you move up, aren't the chances better that you will play for a more accomplished teacher/staff?
Cam and Newton were both end of the draft selections. The effect we had was very minimal if the best outcome was the last 5 picks of the draft. It’s a cool story but they aren’t the examples we’d want to use here probably.

Also that’s the train of thought, but in actuality in a lot of cases it can be a set back because you have to learn a brand new system, learn to play on a new team and integrate with your teammates, learn a new environment in general they have to adjust to. Cam didn’t go through that but every transfer we’ve had here so far has gone through an adjustment period that’s very real.

I’m waiting for the first real case of a guy who moved up and it benefited him so much he became a lottery pick that was prepared to make an impact in the NBA. I don’t think that’s happened yet.
Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it works for both programs and athletes. Jalen Williams was before the portal kicked into high gear - believe me, he would have been in it.
But what would have been the benefit outside of short term stuff? He went lottery and he’s thriving at the next level. Who knows what playing for a new coach and learning a new system halfway through his college career could’ve affected him.
 
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Cam and Newton were both end of the draft selections. The effect we had was very minimal if the best outcome was the last 5 picks of the draft. It’s a cool story but they aren’t the examples we’d want to use here probably.

Also that’s the train of thought, but in actuality in a lot of cases it can be a set back because you have to learn a brand new system, learn to play on a new team and integrate with your teammates, learn a new environment in general they have to adjust to. Cam didn’t go through that but every transfer we’ve had here so far has gone through an adjustment period that’s very real.

I’m waiting for the first real case of a guy who moved up and it benefited him so much he became a lottery pick that was prepared to make an impact in the NBA. I don’t think that’s happened yet.

But what would have been the benefit outside of short term stuff? He went lottery and he’s thriving at the next level. Who knows what playing for a new coach and learning a new system halfway through his college career could’ve affected him.
Good points. Especially about continuity.
Our very own staff acknowledges that their system isnt always learned in the first year. We saw Newt, and Hass and AJax and Sanogo and AK and Donovan all grow by leaps and bounds once they learned it, and that took years. The only guy we've ever had that "got it" in one year was Cam. And that is very rare.
 
But what would have been the benefit outside of short term stuff? He went lottery and he’s thriving at the next level. Who knows what playing for a new coach and learning a new system halfway through his college career could’ve affected him.
What is your argument, this is going in circles? His benefits at a point before he knew what his NBA career would look like would be:

NIL $$
Visibility, better competition
Ability to win a championship

Why is any mid major worth a dime going into the portal?
 
What is your argument, this is going in circles? His benefits at a point before he knew what his NBA career would look like would be:

NIL $$
Visibility, better competition
Ability to win a championship

Why is any mid major worth a dime going into the portal?
NIL and ability to win a championship sure. He clearly didn’t need the visibility or the better competition to become a lottery pick.

And are those very short term goals worth him potentially having a set back learning a new system and not being a lottery pick?
 
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NIL and ability win a championship sure. He clearly didn’t need the visibility or the better competition to become a lottery pick.

And are those very short term goals worth him potentially having a set back learning a new system and not being a lottery pick?
Brother, why is any talented mid major doing it today? Every.single.one. They should follow your logic? C'mon dude, at some point you just like hearing yourself.
 
This is going to lead to less freshmen going to top programs. If I’m a coach I would prefer to give money to the proven, transfer, over the unproven. Top players will get theirs. The rest will might get theirs at lower programs that they will transfer from the next year. As we have been told don’t look for a big freshman class coming in anymore.
This is my theory for the ny giants. Trade your picks and sign veterans and 2nd contract players.
 
The NCAA is such a mess. You have an AD of a P4 program suggesting they should cheat because if they don't they won't be able to compete because everyone else is going to cheat. How did they get here?

"So you have to decide, as an athletic director, are you gonna get out in this lane that you know you're not supposed to be in and operate without the highest level of integrity -- or do you wanna stay in these two lanes?" Yurachek said. "And that's where the rub is coming right now in college athletics. And until we get our enforcement agency up and running, you're gonna continue to have schools operating in that third lane. And that's a bad place to be, in my opinion. It's bad for college athletics. And I don't wanna operate there. But, I think, to be competitive, we may have to figure out what that third lane looks like for the University of Arkansas."

 
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Brother, why is any talented mid major doing it today? Every.single.one. They should follow your logic? C'mon dude, at some point you just like hearing yourself.
The two points we agreed on. I’m not sure why you’re disregarding the lack of success after college these players have been having.

There hasn’t been one lottery pick from that group yet. But yes, they get more money and a “chance” at a championship. Which is cool for the players who don’t think they have a future after college.
 
The two points we agreed on. I’m not sure why you’re disregarding the lack of success after college these players have been having.

There hasn’t been one lottery pick from that group yet. But yes, they get more money and a “chance” at a championship. Which is cool for the players who don’t think they have a future after college.
Not recognizing their lack of success, as NBA talent has a way of rising to the top. He could have gotten drafted higher perhaps, but all moot. They were all pre-portal, so no point in arguing the "what ifs". It was a different time/system. In today's world, same players would have 99% went into the portal for many reasons.
 
Not recognizing their lack of success, as NBA talent has a way of rising to the top. He could have gotten drafted higher perhaps, but all moot. They were all pre-portal, so no point in arguing the "what ifs". It was a different time/system. In today's world, same players would have 99% went into the portal for many reasons.
We don’t have to play a what if game.

The facts as they stand are that mid majors always had success when it came to getting drafted high and making an impact in the NBA.

From the 2023-2025 drafts (where this transfer portal has been a thing), no transfer ups have gone lottery. In the 3 drafts previously we had two in Obi Toppin (Dayton) and JWill.

This not counting guys from Memphis and Gonzaga because it’d be a lot more (5 from those schools) but they aren’t normal mid majors.

Until those guys start going lottery I don’t know how it’s fair to say they are doing this for development, exposure, and future success reasons. Because the facts are showing that’s not actually helping them.
 
The NCAA is such a mess. You have an AD of a P4 program suggesting they should cheat because if they don't they won't be able to compete because everyone else is going to cheat. How did they get here?

"So you have to decide, as an athletic director, are you gonna get out in this lane that you know you're not supposed to be in and operate without the highest level of integrity -- or do you wanna stay in these two lanes?" Yurachek said. "And that's where the rub is coming right now in college athletics. And until we get our enforcement agency up and running, you're gonna continue to have schools operating in that third lane. And that's a bad place to be, in my opinion. It's bad for college athletics. And I don't wanna operate there. But, I think, to be competitive, we may have to figure out what that third lane looks like for the University of Arkansas."

lol why would you openly admit that “you might have to cheat” as an AD
 
We don’t have to play a what if game.

The facts as they stand are that mid majors always had success when it came to getting drafted high and making an impact in the NBA.

From the 2023-2025 drafts (where this transfer portal has been a thing), no transfer ups have gone lottery. In the 3 drafts previously we had two in Obi Toppin (Dayton) and JWill.

This not counting guys from Memphis and Gonzaga because it’d be a lot more (5 from those schools) but they aren’t normal mid majors.

Until those guys start going lottery I don’t know how it’s fair to say they are doing this for development, exposure, and future success reasons. Because the facts are showing that’s not actually helping them.
The vast majority of lottery picks will be one and done freshmen. Cedric Howard was lottery, Clayton went 18th. Plenty of first rounders are transfers up (Wolf). If we dice it subjectively we can support your claim.
 
The vast majority of lottery picks will be one and done freshmen. Cedric Howard was lottery, Clayton went 18th. Plenty of first rounders are transfers up (Wolf). If we dice it subjectively we can support your claim.
Missed Cedric Howard. For some reason I might have thought that was Juwan’s son.

I’m not counting just first rounders because anyone can be a first rounder for the most part. I’m zeroing in on players with star capabilities like the examples I brought up from the past (who were all lottery picks).

We’ll see if Wolf can be a consistent starter in today’s NBA but the Cedric Howard example was fair.
 
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