For the Big 12, I think it comes down to ASU, Arizona, Utah and UConn for 1 or 3 spots. Pros and cons:
UConn:
Pros:
Athletics - best basketball program of the last 25 years, best women's basketball program in history, solid to excellent in almost all other sports.
Market - Large (3.5 million) wealthy market that extends beyond Connecticut borders
Local competition for eyeballs: UConn's fanbase extends beyond UConn alumni since UConn is the only state school with big time athletics in New York/New England. Connecticut will never have a major professional franchise in any of the three major sports, so there is limited local competition for sports entertainment dollars.
Academics - UConn is way ahead of the rest of the candidates academically.
Wildcard - Proximity to the media and financial capital of the world. Not taking UConn is writing off the northeast for the Big 12, forever.
Cons:
Athletics - Football team was competitive when it was in a major conference, but has sucked the last 10 years or so.
Market - state is not growing and is aging.
Wildcard - distance to other schools
Arizona:
Pros:
Athletics - Basketball is pretty good, but by no means dominant. No natural recruiting base for hoops now that UCLA and USC are in Big 10.
Market - Tucson is not that big, although it is fast growing.
Academics - Arizona is not top 100 academically.
Wildcard - Arizona is "hot" both literally and figuratively
Cons:
Athletics - Football sucks and has had some good coaches that were unable to win in Arizona. Heat may be a problem for recruiting.
Market - Arizona is getting close to the limit of human inhabitability in terms of heat, and is running out of water. Those are not opinions, they are facts. It is not a wealthy state (one of 10 poorest in country), making it less appealing to advertisers and creating uncertainty about how many people would pay for streaming. There are also a lot of the residents that are old transplants who already have a favorite team and are unlikely to switch.
Local Competition - Successful pro franchises two hours away in all three major sports.
Wildcard - Already being in a P5 conference seems to carry some weight
Arizona State
Pros:
Athletics - There is a picture of the Arizona State logo next to "above average" in the dictionary. They are OK in hoops and football, but not particularly exceptional in either, going back decades.
Market - Phoenix is one of the biggest (4.4MM) and fastest growing metro areas in the country, although environmental issues (heat and water) may be changing that. Maricopa county is massive geographically, about 2.5x the size of Connecticut geographically. Going to an Arizona State basketball game is not like driving from Fairfield to the XL Center.
Wildcard - Already being in a P5 conference seems to carry some weight
Cons:
Athletics - mediocre
Market - same issues as Arizona, and two schools are splitting the market
Local Competition - Successful pro franchises in all three major sports.
Utah:
Pros:
Athletics - Football is excellent, although it is hard to tell how much of that is Utah and how much is Kyle Whittingham.
Market - Market is not huge at 3.27 million in the whole state of Utah. It is a fast growing state.
Local Competition - successful local NBA team, but no NFL or MLB franchises
Academics - OK in STEM, below average in everything else. Barely top 100.
Wildcard - Already being in a P5 conference seems to carry some weight
Cons:
Athletics - Basketball has kind of sucked since Majerus left, which raises issues about what happens after Whittingham.
Market - Not a rich market, and BYU will always be the #1 option in this state.
When you spreadsheet it, UConn should win on almost every dimension but the fact that we are not already in a P5 conference.
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