Coaching Hot Seat 2021

[JellyBean]

Don’t know when contracts end but coaches I would think are in danger:

SEC
Auburn (TFWs 9th yr)
maybe Fl (4th yr) but not sure he’s been there long enough
LSU is not terrible but is that the standard?
Vandy — White may get one more bc of COVID but things have not gone well

BIG
Purdue
Wisconsin? (5th yr)
Illinois — Nancy Fahey (4th yr) experiment not working but they may give her more time

PAC
Wash — this is her 4th year
Utah?

ACC
None?

B12
Oklahoma?

SEC:
Auburn- Yeah. Plus didn't their coach resign or something?
LSU-They are good. Coach Fargas ain't going no where.
Vandy- Coach White....Yeah I can see her staying.

The rest of the coaches are safe in the SEC.

Big Ten:
Purdue: I think Coach Versyp is safe for another year or two. Unless she gets sick of the BS from unrealistic fan base and walks away. I can see her coaching for a another year or two.

Wisconsin: I gotta say, Coach Tsipis is safe for another year or two. Like with Coach Versyp, just depends on if the coach can put up with the fan base.

Illinois: I don't see them pulling the plug yet on Coach Fahey. I think this was her 3rd or 4th year. Pieces are falling into place in terms of getting players that fit her system.

The rest of the Big Ten...safe.


PAC 12:

Washington- Coach Wynn is safe. Not sure what happened this season. That program regressed badly! But I think that going into year five, they will show some improvement and get things turned around. Coach is safe.

Utah- No idea.

The rest of the PAC 12 pretty safe.


BIG 12:

Everyone is safe unless a better job offer comes along. Coach Sherri ain't leaving Oklahoma until she is ready to leave that program.

 

[DefenseBB]

Using Terri Williams-Flournoy as a baseline for possible termination (Net Ranking:112) these are the schools/coaches with this years worst Net Rankings among all P5 conferences:
NR#254 California Charmin Smith 2 years (13-35,4-27conf.) but extenuating circumstances. Signed 4 top-100 recruits 2020 none in 2021. Has time and the recruiting class to turn things around.
NR#224 Virginia Tina Thompson 2+ years (25-41,13-23conf.) covid-shortened season. No top-100 recruits for 2020 and 2021. Unless she is able to attract some talented transfers she could be in trouble a few years from now.
NR#177 Illinois Nancy Fahey 4 years (26-73,6-64conf.) Has yet to win more than 2 conference games in any season. No top-100 recruits for 2017,1 for 2018,none for 2019 and 2020,1 for 2021. Not getting the job done and the clock is ticking.
NR#158 Vanderbilt Stephanie White 4+ years (46-83,13-54conf.) covid-shortened season. Has not won more than 4 conference games in any season. Although she had 2 top-100 recruits in 2016,1 in 2017,2 in 2018,and 2 in 2019,she had none in 2020 and 1 in 2021. This year was a lost opportunity to show improvement. Has the recruits so next year probably a make-or-break season.
NR#157 Wisconsin Jonathan Tsipis 5 years (50-98,14-74conf.) Has never won more than 4 conference games in any season. Had 1 top-100 recruit in 2016,none in 2017,2018,or 2019,1 in 2020 and none in 2021. On borrowed time.
NR#134 Minnesota Lindsay Whalen 3 years (45-38,21-33conf.) Each year has had worsening overall record but this year was her best conference record at 7-11. Had 1 top-100 recruit in 2018 and 2019,2 in 2020 and 1 in 2021. Needs to show capable of at least a break-even record (overall as well as in conference) next season.
NR#125 Purdue Sharon Versyp 15 years (301-191,141-117conf.) Her best conference record over the last 4 years was 9-8 in 2017-18. Top-100 recruits: 2008(2),2009(2),2010(0),2011(1),2012(2),2013(1),2014(1),2015(4),2016(1),
2017(1),2018(1),2019(1),2020(2),and 2021(2). In spite of having a strong recruiting class in 2015 she has made the NCAAT only twice in the last 6 years. She can remain Purdue's coach as long as she wants but an improved conference (Maryland,Ohio State,Michigan,Indiana,Michigan State,Northwestern and Iowa, makes getting back to the NCAAT a real challenge.
NR#118 Pittsburgh Lance White 3 years (21-60,6-43conf.) Best year was this last year with 3 conference wins. No top-100 recruits in 2018,2019,or 2021 and 1 in 2020. Things don't look good for turning Pitt around any time soon.
NR#113 Utah Lynne Roberts 6 years (87-91,40-69conf.) Has had only one break-even year in conference (9-9) in 2018-19 and has been heading in the wrong direction last two years. No top-100 recruits in 2015 or 2016,1 in 2017,none in 2018,1 in 2019,2 in 2020,and 1 in 2021. Recent recruiting may help turn things around but with a tough conference of Oregon,Stanford,Oregon State,UCLA,Arizona,Arizona State,and improving Cal,USC,Colorado and Wash.State, doing any better than break-even will be difficult and reaching the NCAAT nearly impossible. I think she'll be around for awhile yet.

Great job detailing this list! For further edification, the expiration of these contracts comes into heavy consideration. I really only have 3 minor issues on your comments concerning Vandy, Purdue and Utah.
Cal-Smith contract expires in 2024
UVa-Thompson contract expires 2023
Illinois-Fahey expires in 2025 (2 yr extension signed in April 2020)
Vanderbilt-White expires in 2022 and MAKES $900k and as you've shown she's had recruits and still stunk. Her fate is sealed-She is not going to get extended especially with Vandy in the RED from a budget perspective.
Wisc-Tsipis got an extension to 2024 last year.
Minn-Whalen expires in 2024
Purdue-Versyp expires 2022. Where you lost me here is your comment "she can remain Purdue's coach as long as she wants" IS SIMPLY NOT TRUE. The alumni were calling for her to go after last year so much so that the AD had to make a statement. I would say her odds of staying after this year are 25%. If she does stay, she will not be renewed unless she has an unbelievable year next year.
Pitt-White expires in 2024.
Utah-Roberts expires in 2023. I don't buy your "I think she'll be around for awhile yet" as there is zero evidence of her showing conference improvement and her OOC is cupcake city. She's in the bottom 3 coaches along with Smith and Jody Wynn. Speaking of which
NR#83 Washington's Jody Wynn has been an abject failure. Yes she inherited a HORRIBLE roster from Neighbors, but there is little to get excited about and her contract expires in 2023. I know our fine colleague @nwhoopfan is daily "x-ing" out the calendar days on this one.

For the P5 schools, the most successful path is usually hiring another HC from a mid-major vs. a top assistant. What really is disastrous is hiring an INTERNAL assistant coach. Hiring an HC without ANY experience is also a recipe for disaster. Whalen proves that and Lawson quit the season much too soon-A true leader would and should have steered the ship a bit longer before quitting. She may be good eventually but her leadership thus far was not good.

 

[Vowelguy]

Versyp & Roberts seem like the only other ones that could be vulnerable this year.
Getting rid of someone after <4 years seems crazy, especially if one of them is a covid year.

I can't see Whalen getting fired anytime soon, unless they are a complete disaster. She's a local hero.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Washington- Coach Wynn is safe. Not sure what happened this season. That program regressed badly! But I think that going into year five, they will show some improvement and get things turned around. Coach is safe.

Melgoza graduated is what happened. She kept them semi-sorta competitive the previous year almost by herself.

 

[HuskyMJ]

How about San Diego State? Just ended their season with disappointing loss to Air Force in round 1 of MWC tournament. Never played in postseason with their current coach after 7 years.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Melgoza graduated is what happened. She kept them semi-sorta competitive the previous year almost by herself.

that was my first thought as well. Wasnt she a Mike Neighbors recruit?

 

[SECbbfan24]

LSU-They are good

lol no

IF LSU were to move on, they would only owe her around 200,000 for the year left on her contract, which isn't that much in the grand scheme of things.

If people thought this year was bad. LSU is in a world of hurt next year if Pointer doesn't take a 5th year and with no Aifuwa.

 

[nwhoopfan]

that was my first thought as well. Wasnt she a Mike Neighbors recruit?

Yep. His last class at UW didn't raise any eyebrows, but Melgoza and McDonald scored a ton of points between the 2 of them. Just unfortunately one of them scored most of those points at another school.

 

[Dokey]

25-63 in conference in 5 years. Expectations must be pretty low for that to be considered acceptable.

Team made strides this year. Beating Stanford got her another year. Sixth place in tough PAC-12 also helped. How far they go in NIT is also a factor, if they don’t sneak in NCAA. Next year she has to replace Mya. Recruiting is of course the key. Two of the best high school players in the country played less than 50 miles from Boulder but have gone or are going to Stanford and could have been CU’s Lobo. The CU men get good recruits.

 

[Rooster C.]

Great job detailing this list! For further edification, the expiration of these contracts comes into heavy consideration. I really only have 3 minor issues on your comments concerning Vandy, Purdue and Utah.
Cal-Smith contract expires in 2024
UVa-Thompson contract expires 2023
Illinois-Fahey expires in 2025 (2 yr extension signed in April 2020)
Vanderbilt-White expires in 2022 and MAKES $900k and as you've shown she's had recruits and still stunk. Her fate is sealed-She is not going to get extended especially with Vandy in the RED from a budget perspective.
Wisc-Tsipis got an extension to 2024 last year.
Minn-Whalen expires in 2024
Purdue-Versyp expires 2022. Where you lost me here is your comment "she can remain Purdue's coach as long as she wants" IS SIMPLY NOT TRUE. The alumni were calling for her to go after last year so much so that the AD had to make a statement. I would say her odds of staying after this year are 25%. If she does stay, she will not be renewed unless she has an unbelievable year next year.
Pitt-White expires in 2024.
Utah-Roberts expires in 2023. I don't buy your "I think she'll be around for awhile yet" as there is zero evidence of her showing conference improvement and her OOC is cupcake city. She's in the bottom 3 coaches along with Smith and Jody Wynn. Speaking of which
NR#83 Washington's Jody Wynn has been an abject failure. Yes she inherited a HORRIBLE roster from Neighbors, but there is little to get excited about and her contract expires in 2023. I know our fine colleague @nwhoopfan is daily "x-ing" out the calendar days on this one.

For the P5 schools, the most successful path is usually hiring another HC from a mid-major vs. a top assistant. What really is disastrous is hiring an INTERNAL assistant coach. Hiring an HC without ANY experience is also a recipe for disaster. Whalen proves that and Lawson quit the season much too soon-A true leader would and should have steered the ship a bit longer before quitting. She may be good eventually but her leadership thus far was not good.

DefenseBB thanks! I did the research more out of curiosity as well as to create discussion by the knowledgeable fans that are here. I would add the following: I believe Thompson may be a good coach but she should be coaching somewhere in the Big12 if she is to succeed. Illinois and Wisconsin are not going to get any better until they change coaches/get better at recruiting. That goes for Minnesota as well imo. As you pointed out, her lack of coaching experience is showing. As for Purdue I think her long past history is akin to that of Sherri Coale at Oklahoma. If she can get them back to post-season play next year I think she can hold on yet. While I agree with you about Utah and Washington I'm not sure their schools are overly concerned about the WBB program enough to make a change soon. Vandy is another story. "if" she can win big games and take her team to the NCAAT next year she could still save her job and get an extension. If she doesn't have a major turnaround next year then I think she's out. I would say the same for LSU.
Finally, regarding mid-major HC vs asst. what would you say about Miss. St. vs. Kentucky this year?

 

[DefenseBB]

DefenseBB thanks! I did the research more out of curiosity as well as to create discussion by the knowledgeable fans that are here. I would add the following: I believe Thompson may be a good coach but she should be coaching somewhere in the Big12 if she is to succeed. Illinois and Wisconsin are not going to get any better until they change coaches/get better at recruiting. That goes for Minnesota as well imo. As you pointed out, her lack of coaching experience is showing. As for Purdue I think her long past history is akin to that of Sherri Coale at Oklahoma. If she can get them back to post-season play next year I think she can hold on yet. While I agree with you about Utah and Washington I'm not sure their schools are overly concerned about the WBB program enough to make a change soon. Vandy is another story. "if" she can win big games and take her team to the NCAAT next year she could still save her job and get an extension. If she doesn't have a major turnaround next year then I think she's out. I would say the same for LSU.
Finally, regarding mid-major HC vs asst. what would you say about Miss. St. vs. Kentucky this year?

Let me pose this in response first- What if Johnnie Harris had gotten the MSU job this year instead of Nikki McCray? Would the MSU team be this bad? Probably not. Would they have met any preseason MSU forecasts? Also probably not, which is exactly what happened to Elzy at Kentucky.

Now the bigger question is in the next 5 years. Elzy has not done great with all that talent of which she was an assistant at Kentucky. Will they improve over the next 5 years, not likely. Is that good enough for Kentucky-don't know as it depends how far they slip.
For MSU, the answer is how far do they fall before plateauing and will it be enough for the fan base. Probably fall too much that Nikki McCray is let go.

My guess in is 5 years, Elzy still has the Kentucky job while McCray will be looking elsewhere, as will Fargas.

What I am curious about is Ole Miss and how they look next year if Austin is gone. Part of me thinks Coach Yo may be ok and part of me thinks she's lucky to get Austin for the one year.

 

[DefenseBB]

lol no

IF LSU were to move on, they would only owe her around 200,000 for the year left on her contract, which isn't that much in the grand scheme of things.

If people thought this year was bad. LSU is in a world of hurt next year if Pointer doesn't take a 5th year and with no Aifuwa.

wait, what? I do recall that her last extension revised the amount of the buyout, so if it is only $200K, they need to move on from her this year! I can hardly find nary a top recruit for her...That doesn't cut it in the SEC...

 

[SECbbfan24]

Let me pose this in response first- What if Johnnie Harris had gotten the MSU job this year instead of Nikki McCray? Would the MSU team be this bad? Probably not. Would they have met any preseason MSU forecasts? Also probably not, which is exactly what happened to Elzy at Kentucky.

Now the bigger question is in the next 5 years. Elzy has not done great with all that talent of which she was an assistant at Kentucky. Will they improve over the next 5 years, not likely. Is that good enough for Kentucky-don't know as it depends how far they slip.
For MSU, the answer is how far do they fall before plateauing and will it be enough for the fan base. Probably fall too much that Nikki McCray is let go.

My guess in is 5 years, Elzy still has the Kentucky job while McCray will be looking elsewhere, as will Fargas.

What I am curious about is Ole Miss and how they look next year if Austin is gone. Part of me thinks Coach Yo may be ok and part of me thinks she's lucky to get Austin for the one year.

i think for Coach Yo, with Austin, this is the time to build up the program and bring in talent before she goes. She has done a good job so far. Obviously Austin is a big part of that but she has recruited well on top of that and supplemented with transfers to help fill those holes. This would be the perfect off-season to add more talent through the transfer portal given the extra year of eligibility.

 

[SECbbfan24]

wait, what? I do recall that her last extension revised the amount of the buyout, so if it is only $200K, they need to move on from her this year! I can hardly find nary a top recruit for her...That doesn't cut it in the SEC...

Nikki Fargas contract
The buyout for her has never been bad, the previous AD just stopped caring

termination is on page 2

Nikki seems like a good person and means well, but this line of business is tough and this comes with the job. IMO she would be a great assistant. She is clearly knowledgeable, great defensive coach, good motivator. Just not good with roster management and recruiting. Unfortunately those are pretty critical components to being able to run a top program

As geno said after the butt kicking in BR years ago, “they don’t have the players”

 

[Dillon77]

Nikki Fargas contract
The buyout for her has never been bad, the previous AD just stopped caring

termination is on page 2

Nikki seems like a good person and means well, but this line of business is tough and this comes with the job. IMO she would be a great assistant. She is clearly knowledgeable, great defensive coach, good motivator. Just not good with roster management and recruiting. Unfortunately those are pretty critical components to being able to run a top program

As geno said after the butt kicking in BR years ago, “they don’t have the players”

I remember the extension last time at LSU was hardly a rousing endorsement. Can't see this getting any better without getting players and, as stated, where are they coming from? Think Nikki has gotten a decent amount of time, but this program won't be going anywhere upwards soon under the current arrangement.

 

[DefenseBB]

Nikki seems like a good person and means well, but this line of business is tough and this comes with the job. IMO she would be a great assistant. She is clearly knowledgeable, great defensive coach, good motivator. Just not good with roster management and recruiting. Unfortunately those are pretty critical components to being able to run a top program

Um, I am not sure her ego would let her take that "demotion" as opposed to her taking on a mid-major program like La Tech or SMU when those gigs come open. Being #2 in a P5 just seems like acknowledgement she's not cut out for HC so....

 

[SECbbfan24]

She will get a HC opportunity somewhere after LSU. I said she would be a good assistant but she doesn't seem like the type of take a demotion.

 

[Vowelguy]

Travis Mays out at SMU

opening #9 (per Raoul)

 

[Rooster C.]

My guess in is 5 years, Elzy still has the Kentucky job while McCray will be looking elsewhere, as will Fargas.

What I am curious about is Ole Miss and how they look next year if Austin is gone.

I think Elzy and McCray have both underachieved to some extent. I think that's normal adjustment to being put in that new situation. The same could be said for Banghart at NC (she lost to Miami home-and-away for starters) while Wyckoff has slightly overachieved at FSU.
I see Banghart has brought in her old PG from Princeton to run her offense next year and she has a super recruiting class coming in so she should improve. The jury is still out on Lawson at Duke since she quit the season early but recruits are coming in so she has a good opportunity to show her coaching skills going forward.
I think recruiting is such a big factor in a team's success. Kentucky got 3 top-100 in 2020 and MS had 1 who is now a starter, and they each have 1 top-100 coming in next year as well. Getting to the NCAAT is one thing but I've observed that getting to the Sweet 16 is paramount to getting TOP recruits for a year or two after....success breeds success.
As for coach Yo I wondered the same. She has recruited well and her team has been very competitive in nearly every game but without Austin and no 2021 recruits to speak of things could get rough.....at some point you have to go from being "very competitive" to winning.

 

[DefenseBB]

Banghart has made NC more relevant in her 2 years than what Sylvia Hatchell did the last 4 years. Kelly was a top guard to sign on with the Tar Heels but seemed to have very little impact for them. I would not put Courtney in the category as Elzy or McCray.
Wyckoff, as noted seemed to do well after some initial game gaffs early in the season-did you see my "Top Assistants Vote" thread (Shameless self promotion...)?
Lawson, sigh, VERY disappointed she let the team quit this year. Especially when you look at all the schools that did quit in P5-UVA, Vandy who were atrocious anyway and whose coaches need to show something. Credit has to be given to Auburn and Cal who "buckled up" and gave it a go with very bad teams. Lawson, took a creditability hit in my book on this....

 

[southie]

Banghart has made NC more relevant in her 2 years than what Sylvia Hatchell did the last 4 years. Kelly was a top guard to sign on with the Tar Heels but seemed to have very little impact for them. I would not put Courtney in the category as Elzy or McCray.
Wyckoff, as noted seemed to do well after some initial game gaffs early in the season-did you see my "Top Assistants Vote" thread (Shameless self promotion...)?
Lawson, sigh, VERY disappointed she let the team quit this year. Especially when you look at all the schools that did quit in P5-UVA, Vandy who were atrocious anyway and whose coaches need to show something. Credit has to be given to Auburn and Cal who "buckled up" and gave it a go with very bad teams. Lawson, took a creditability hit in my book on this....

I will be curious to see if Deja Kelly remains at UNC another season or transfers somewhere closer to Texas.

Banghart seems to be recruiting very well at UNC; sometimes that results in more talented newcomers displacing returning players/starters, and the transfer portal is their next destination.

 

[MSSportsGuy]

I think one thing we are seeing with Mays departure this season and the gift year for White is schools are loathe to pay a buy out of a contract unless their hand is forced. We all know there are only about twenty or so schools who really put much emphasis or major resources into the sport. Those programs, for example a Texas or Tennessee, have to make changes when things get rocky because they have a fan base and support that expects something. For some others there isn't any push to make a change that would inconvenience them or cost money unless there is a scandal involved or complete insurrection.

The sport doesn't really make money anywhere and the national scene relatively small. This is largely why some zombie programs are allowed to exist.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Banghart has made NC more relevant in her 2 years than what Sylvia Hatchell did the last 4 years. Kelly was a top guard to sign on with the Tar Heels but seemed to have very little impact for them. I would not put Courtney in the category as Elzy or McCray.
Wyckoff, as noted seemed to do well after some initial game gaffs early in the season-did you see my "Top Assistants Vote" thread (Shameless self promotion...)?
Lawson, sigh, VERY disappointed she let the team quit this year. Especially when you look at all the schools that did quit in P5-UVA, Vandy who were atrocious anyway and whose coaches need to show something. Credit has to be given to Auburn and Cal who "buckled up" and gave it a go with very bad teams. Lawson, took a creditability hit in my book on this....

Bangart is just getting started.

She's bringing in the third or fourth best class in the country. #9, #17, #18, and #20.

I like Key and McPherson a lot. If they don't see any bump out of that then I would start to worry, but she seems very much on schedule at this point.

 

[sivad40]

Banghart has made NC more relevant in her 2 years than what Sylvia Hatchell did the last 4 years. Kelly was a top guard to sign on with the Tar Heels but seemed to have very little impact for them. I would not put Courtney in the category as Elzy or McCray.
Wyckoff, as noted seemed to do well after some initial game gaffs early in the season-did you see my "Top Assistants Vote" thread (Shameless self promotion...)?
Lawson, sigh, VERY disappointed she let the team quit this year. Especially when you look at all the schools that did quit in P5-UVA, Vandy who were atrocious anyway and whose coaches need to show something. Credit has to be given to Auburn and Cal who "buckled up" and gave it a go with very bad teams. Lawson, took a creditability hit in my book on this....

Kelly started every game except for one and came on strong the last five games of the season. The thing is if a team is dependent on freshmen to be major factors like UNC and Oregon did this season at least one of them have to come out of the gate and perform a high level. If they don't and the upper-classmen can't pick up the slack, the team will be inconsistent like UNC and Oregon was.

 

[Vowelguy]

Wisconsin lost 67-42 to Illinois, not exactly a BiG power
Tsipsis is on the clock.

 

[LETTERL]

Wisconsin lost 67-42 to Illinois, not exactly a BiG power
Tsipsis is on the clock.

I know it was Wisconsin but Illinois came out on fire and determined to play another day. This was a big win for Nancy Fahey.

 

[DaBball]

Wisconsin lost 67-42 to Illinois, not exactly a BiG power
Tsipsis is on the clock.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Good to see some programs pulling the trigger. I'm afraid I'll have to wait another year but I sure hope my school can do the same.

 

[Vowelguy]

Auburn, Wisconsin, SMU, Memphis ==> who are some candidates?

 

[DaBball]

Auburn, Wisconsin, SMU, Memphis ==> who are some candidates?

Maybe Megan Duffy or Amaka Agugua-Hamilton for Wisconsin. Not familar with the South Dakota or South Dakota State head coaches, but they’ve clearly had great sustained success.

Auburn is an interesting one. I feel like the Troy coach has done a nice job, but not sure if she has a strong enough resume. Coach Flo was a good hire on paper.