DefenseBB
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As noted in the thread on the main page post "Slightly OT Define Coaching Success" by @Puppy Love, I had been researching the current 65 + 11 Big East coaches/teams to see which are on the "watch list" either by fans, by ADs, by press or by all 3. I looked at analytics listed as
The other trend that is now emerging is the P5 +BE are now "shortening the tolerance" on how much time coaches have to turn programs around. Usually, the coach had the full 5 or 6 years of that 1st contract but now with more money and the transfer portal, school Athletic Directors are willing to actually fire or "early retire" coaches who are not winning enough and buyout the contract. We saw Tina Thompson get relieved after just 4 years of her 5 year contract last year, both Sue Samrau and Suzy Merchant "retire" and Lindsay Whalen get "reassigned" during their still active contracts.
With that as the back-drop of criteria and adding in the old coaching adage of "hired to get fired" as no job is ever-lasting, I will attempt to be pragmatic in my assessments and try to keep my personal bias out of the write-up. Last note, I am trying to note the concerns and am not trying to be a "negative" critic but as the nature of this "Watch list" is connoted as negative, I tried to be as matter of fact as possible.
#1. Charmin Smith-Cal, PAC-12: with the move to a new conference on the horizon, her current 4-year record of 37-65 and conference record of 10-51 (16.4% winning percentage) is just bad. Her average finish is 11.25 (last). Her fate is probably already sealed but perhaps a great run this year could rejuvenate her career.
#2. Amanda Butler-Clemson, ACC; Her 69-87 Overall and 27-60 (31.0%) Conference record are not good. Her average finish in 5 years is 11th, which is dead last of the coaches with 2 or more years in the league. She has made the NCAAT one time (her 1st year), the WNIT this past year, hasn't really recruited well, hasn't garnered any blue chip transfers and the trend is flat at best. She needs to show something in year 6.
#3. Carolyn Kieger-Penn State, BigTen; This will be year 5 for Kieger and to say she has struggled to gain any traction would be an understatement. Her Overall record at PSU is 41-73 with her 16-57 Conference (21.9%), her 12.25 average placing is dead last of all the B10 coaches and her trend of no real improvement says she's in trouble. Yes, the PSU program was bad when she took it over but given what has happened in Illinois with Shauna Green and that Minnesota has fired Whalen and hired Dawn Plitzuweit from WVU/So.Datkota St the landscape has changed for the worst for Ms. Kieger.
#4. Robin Pingeton-Missouri, SEC; There were contentious meetings held in March of last year when Mizzou was blown out by Kansas in the WNIT about what do with Pingeton. Ultimately the AD decided to give her one more year as her buyout would have cost $1.2 million significantly more than the last year of this contract. Her conference record of 82-92 in 11 years, with her post Sophie Cunningham struggles and her average place of 7.54 is 3rd worst among SEC coaches with 3 or more years in the league. Given some of the transfers out and off-court drama, she is definitely on the "watch list".
#5. Kyra Elzy-Kentucky, SEC; Kyra inherited a Wildcat team nationally ranked with a 1st All-America and top 10 ranked recruiting class and in 3 short years has completely burned it to the ground. Mitchell's last year was 22-8, Elzy then went 18-9/19-12/11-18 the conference record also shows troubling trends in Conference play with records of 9-6/8-8/2-14 plus her teams off-court drama and transfers out has Wildcat nation in a tizzy. With Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC next year Kentucky might want to do a re-organization sooner rather than later if this year is more of the same.
Others to note:
Krista Gerlich-Tex Tech, B12; All the peripherals scream "hot seat" like her 15-39 Conference record (27.8%), her second to last average place in the Big 12 but she's only been there for 3 years, the Tech program suffered abuse allegations under Marlene Stallings so given Krista was a Tech player and she seems to have the team support and the school probably doesn't want to do another search, she probably will live out her contract with the hope that she can find some success.
Joanna Bernabei-McNamee-BC, ACC; She just completed year 5 and while the promise of years 2 and 4 gave hope, last year and the overall view is a bit bleak. Her overall record is 78-69 which is nice but below that facade is a 31-52 ACC record (37.3%), her average placement is 9.6-second worst in the conference and with only 1 post-season appearance (WNIT '22). The fact no news about an extension over the past 2 years is ominous.
Joe McKeown-Northwestern, BigTen; Joe has been with NW since 2008-09 after 19 hugely successful years at GW so his overall record of 759-393 is impressive, however his 241-198 record at NW, his conference record of 104-152 (40.6%) and average placement of 7.85 is second worst to Kieger above for coaches with 3 or more years in the league shows he has not been nearly as successful. Joe will be 68 next May so my guess is if this season offers more of the same, he will "retire".
Brandon Schneider-Kansas, B12; His name would probably be #1 or #2 given his poor criteria results-Overall Jayhawk record of 107-136 (44.0% in 8 years) with an abysmal conference record of 34-110 (23.6%) and an average finish of 8.62 (last of all the Big 12 coaches) but he had a strong year last year by Kansas standards of 25-11, 9-9 and they won the WNIT which usually foreshadows next season success. He has bought some time.
Kristy Curry-Alabama, SEC; She signed an extension this past June until 2027 which I find curious as in 10 years at 'Bama, she is 173-143 but a meek 61-99 (38.1%) and her average placement in SEC play is 9.2 which is the worst of all SEC coaches with 3 or more years in the league. Plus she has only made 2 NCAAT during her tenure. I get she has made 2 of the last 3 NCAATs but her ranking among the SEC will only deteriorate when Texas and Oklahoma join. But hey, if they offer you the money, you take it.
Big East edition:
The Big East has 4 new coaches this year after a rather surprising off-season of change (good for the schools to focus on the programs!). So to me using the criteria above, there are not any the 7 non-newbies on the watch list. There are a few to keep an eye on this year in:
Tony Bozella-Seton Hall, BE; Tony has been at SHU for 10 years and his overall record of 190-127 and 98-85 are pretty good but his trend is down and he did lose his best player to the portal. His recruiting has not been good and he needs to continue to use the transfer portal to remain competitive.
Doug Brun-DePaul, BE; WHAT you say? Yes, Doug has lifetime employment at DePaul on a program he built. However, his last 2 years have been trending down and he just lost his best player he has had in his whole career to the transfer portal, plus he is 72 years old so his "retirement" may be imminent.
Joe Tartamella-St.John's, BE: Joe had a resurgent year last year and he seems to be using the transfer portal well so as I said, he is NOT on the hot seat but prior to last year, his last NCAAT was 2015-16 and with the Big East getting more competitive, Joe needs to maintain what he achieved last year.
I look forward to hearing from my fine colleagues here on your thoughts.
- Overall Won/Loss records at the current school (and any other D1 schools)
- Conference W/L record at the current school
- Where the school finished within the conference while at the school (placement)
- How many times did the team qualify for either the NCAAT or the WNIT
- Did the coach have any success within the NCAAT or the WNIT
- What trend is the program showing-improving, declining or just treading water and status quo
- What is the program's pedigree for commitment/success in WCBB. Tennessee has much higher expectations than Alabama, Missouri or Florida, so the coach has a much higher bar to have to achieve.
- What program perceptions have to be taken under advisement. For example, Texas Tech fired their former coach before hiring Krista Gurlich, who if all things were equal, has an abysmal record but seems to be well respected and liked so she will be given a few more years than her actual record would warrant. Other programs may also decide the "headline risk" of off-court issues may prompt a change when a current W/L record might lead to a bit more time.
The other trend that is now emerging is the P5 +BE are now "shortening the tolerance" on how much time coaches have to turn programs around. Usually, the coach had the full 5 or 6 years of that 1st contract but now with more money and the transfer portal, school Athletic Directors are willing to actually fire or "early retire" coaches who are not winning enough and buyout the contract. We saw Tina Thompson get relieved after just 4 years of her 5 year contract last year, both Sue Samrau and Suzy Merchant "retire" and Lindsay Whalen get "reassigned" during their still active contracts.
With that as the back-drop of criteria and adding in the old coaching adage of "hired to get fired" as no job is ever-lasting, I will attempt to be pragmatic in my assessments and try to keep my personal bias out of the write-up. Last note, I am trying to note the concerns and am not trying to be a "negative" critic but as the nature of this "Watch list" is connoted as negative, I tried to be as matter of fact as possible.
#1. Charmin Smith-Cal, PAC-12: with the move to a new conference on the horizon, her current 4-year record of 37-65 and conference record of 10-51 (16.4% winning percentage) is just bad. Her average finish is 11.25 (last). Her fate is probably already sealed but perhaps a great run this year could rejuvenate her career.
#2. Amanda Butler-Clemson, ACC; Her 69-87 Overall and 27-60 (31.0%) Conference record are not good. Her average finish in 5 years is 11th, which is dead last of the coaches with 2 or more years in the league. She has made the NCAAT one time (her 1st year), the WNIT this past year, hasn't really recruited well, hasn't garnered any blue chip transfers and the trend is flat at best. She needs to show something in year 6.
#3. Carolyn Kieger-Penn State, BigTen; This will be year 5 for Kieger and to say she has struggled to gain any traction would be an understatement. Her Overall record at PSU is 41-73 with her 16-57 Conference (21.9%), her 12.25 average placing is dead last of all the B10 coaches and her trend of no real improvement says she's in trouble. Yes, the PSU program was bad when she took it over but given what has happened in Illinois with Shauna Green and that Minnesota has fired Whalen and hired Dawn Plitzuweit from WVU/So.Datkota St the landscape has changed for the worst for Ms. Kieger.
#4. Robin Pingeton-Missouri, SEC; There were contentious meetings held in March of last year when Mizzou was blown out by Kansas in the WNIT about what do with Pingeton. Ultimately the AD decided to give her one more year as her buyout would have cost $1.2 million significantly more than the last year of this contract. Her conference record of 82-92 in 11 years, with her post Sophie Cunningham struggles and her average place of 7.54 is 3rd worst among SEC coaches with 3 or more years in the league. Given some of the transfers out and off-court drama, she is definitely on the "watch list".
#5. Kyra Elzy-Kentucky, SEC; Kyra inherited a Wildcat team nationally ranked with a 1st All-America and top 10 ranked recruiting class and in 3 short years has completely burned it to the ground. Mitchell's last year was 22-8, Elzy then went 18-9/19-12/11-18 the conference record also shows troubling trends in Conference play with records of 9-6/8-8/2-14 plus her teams off-court drama and transfers out has Wildcat nation in a tizzy. With Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC next year Kentucky might want to do a re-organization sooner rather than later if this year is more of the same.
Others to note:
Krista Gerlich-Tex Tech, B12; All the peripherals scream "hot seat" like her 15-39 Conference record (27.8%), her second to last average place in the Big 12 but she's only been there for 3 years, the Tech program suffered abuse allegations under Marlene Stallings so given Krista was a Tech player and she seems to have the team support and the school probably doesn't want to do another search, she probably will live out her contract with the hope that she can find some success.
Joanna Bernabei-McNamee-BC, ACC; She just completed year 5 and while the promise of years 2 and 4 gave hope, last year and the overall view is a bit bleak. Her overall record is 78-69 which is nice but below that facade is a 31-52 ACC record (37.3%), her average placement is 9.6-second worst in the conference and with only 1 post-season appearance (WNIT '22). The fact no news about an extension over the past 2 years is ominous.
Joe McKeown-Northwestern, BigTen; Joe has been with NW since 2008-09 after 19 hugely successful years at GW so his overall record of 759-393 is impressive, however his 241-198 record at NW, his conference record of 104-152 (40.6%) and average placement of 7.85 is second worst to Kieger above for coaches with 3 or more years in the league shows he has not been nearly as successful. Joe will be 68 next May so my guess is if this season offers more of the same, he will "retire".
Brandon Schneider-Kansas, B12; His name would probably be #1 or #2 given his poor criteria results-Overall Jayhawk record of 107-136 (44.0% in 8 years) with an abysmal conference record of 34-110 (23.6%) and an average finish of 8.62 (last of all the Big 12 coaches) but he had a strong year last year by Kansas standards of 25-11, 9-9 and they won the WNIT which usually foreshadows next season success. He has bought some time.
Kristy Curry-Alabama, SEC; She signed an extension this past June until 2027 which I find curious as in 10 years at 'Bama, she is 173-143 but a meek 61-99 (38.1%) and her average placement in SEC play is 9.2 which is the worst of all SEC coaches with 3 or more years in the league. Plus she has only made 2 NCAAT during her tenure. I get she has made 2 of the last 3 NCAATs but her ranking among the SEC will only deteriorate when Texas and Oklahoma join. But hey, if they offer you the money, you take it.
Big East edition:
The Big East has 4 new coaches this year after a rather surprising off-season of change (good for the schools to focus on the programs!). So to me using the criteria above, there are not any the 7 non-newbies on the watch list. There are a few to keep an eye on this year in:
Tony Bozella-Seton Hall, BE; Tony has been at SHU for 10 years and his overall record of 190-127 and 98-85 are pretty good but his trend is down and he did lose his best player to the portal. His recruiting has not been good and he needs to continue to use the transfer portal to remain competitive.
Doug Brun-DePaul, BE; WHAT you say? Yes, Doug has lifetime employment at DePaul on a program he built. However, his last 2 years have been trending down and he just lost his best player he has had in his whole career to the transfer portal, plus he is 72 years old so his "retirement" may be imminent.
Joe Tartamella-St.John's, BE: Joe had a resurgent year last year and he seems to be using the transfer portal well so as I said, he is NOT on the hot seat but prior to last year, his last NCAAT was 2015-16 and with the Big East getting more competitive, Joe needs to maintain what he achieved last year.
I look forward to hearing from my fine colleagues here on your thoughts.