BL, I half agree. The part I agree with is UConn's chances of winning a national championship. If UConn's chances of finishing ahead of Penn State in any given year are 20%, and if there are 15 Penn States nationally, then UConn's chances of finishing ahead of all 15 are 1 in 5^15 = 1 in 30 billion. So, in 30 billion years we'd win once, but the life of the universe is much less than 30 billion years.
On the other hand, let's say Penn State is competitive with 14 other top programs; then it's chances of winning are 1 in 2^15 = 1 in 32,000. That's much longer than any Nittany fan's lifetime. Does that means Penn State fans shouldn't think of winning a national championship because it's so unrealistic that it would shield them from rationality? But yet their team would have as good a chance as any other team.
Here's what I believe: "Let your reach exceed your grasp." "Be perfect, as your Father in heaven is perfect." We should seek perfection, even if it is unattainable. Seek to be the best possible. Then enjoy the journey of falling short. Stay rational, but stay hopeful, and keep your goals high.
Yes, we need to win the Big East. We need to improve how we rank nationally. We need to build our fanbase. We need to reach the level Penn State is at. And then we need to compete for the national championship.