Charlie Creme Ranks Next Years Teams

[ASweet3781]

It's really hard to tell how much of a difference there was this past season between Baylor and UConn. Obviously there was a separation between Baylor and everyone else.

Baylor was a terrible matchup for Notre Dame. Notre Dame was a terrible matchup for UConn. Not sure why people downplay the UConn-Baylor matchup from January in Waco. It did show UConn could compete with them. A 2nd half 11 pt lead on their home floor isn't anything to dismiss. Baylor was winning last year regardless but I don't think we lose to them by 20.

I don't know how anyone with a sane mind can think UConn and Duke are on the same level instead of Baylor and UConn being a more likely comparison. Duke was obliterated by Stanford. And by UConn. There was a huge gap between the top teams last year. And UConn's roster next year will be it's strongest in quite some time. You can make the claim Baylor is in a league of it's own. But UConn is the clear #2 with a pretty big gap.

UConn has played the last several seasons with basically a 6-7 player rotation. Nothing more. We made the Final 4 with no 1st or 2nd team All Americans and came a missed rebound away from playing for the title. We have possibly 9-11 players next year on the roster with the ability to play against top notch competition. It will give us many more options than we have had in terms of strategies and it will make it harder for other teams to guard and prepare for us. We could press and run the entire 40 minutes if we wanted. Hartley, Lewis, Dolson could be All Americans, Stewart, Jefferson, Tuck, could be the best 3 frosh in the country, you got leaders like Faris and Doty, and throw in Stokes, Banks, and Buck for security role players. Baylor is the favorite but Geno will have more options than he's had to work with in quite some time. He certainly did better vs Baylor than anyone else did last year and with not exactly a roster filled with talent to exploit Baylor.

 

[sarals24]

Duke does not impress me at all. Sorry, tridukefan, I respect the school, they get in GREAT athletes, but with talent like that they should dominate the ACC. An early exit in the ACC tourney and that bad loss to Stanford do not inspire confidence next year that they can compete with the likes of UConn and Baylor. Williams is so talented, and upon rewatch of the UConn Duke matchup there were times where she was floating out on the perimeter or setting screens for the entire possession. If I'm Duke, I get her a touch every time down the floor. You can watch Duke for an entire possession and not be able to tell what their offensive set is.

I think Stanford will be in the conversation. Orrange is going to be a very good PG, Chiney is uber talented, and I think Tara is a very very good coach.

 

[ASweet3781]

I agree with you sarals24. And I would throw in Maryland as well as Duke in the "That Don't Impress Me Much" group. It will take a long time before I erase those regional final performances by the Terps and the Devils against ND and Stanford from my mind. The teams weren't just exposed in those games. The entire programs were. The strength and conditioning. The physicality. The coaches. The Conference. All exposed. It was like watching basketball players playing against girls. The ACC has a lot to prove before I start respecting them again.

If programs like Duke and Maryland, Kentucky, Penn State, etc don't find how to break through next year and make it to the Final 4, we could see the same 4 teams back in the Final 4. ND and Stanford lost a lot. But they still have Tara and Muffett. Skylar and Chiney. And a bunch of players who know what it takes to win the big games. You cannot say the same about some of these other programs yet.

 

[msf22b]

Again from the other thread, if the frosh are as spectacular as Geno thinks they are, then UCONN will create match-up problems that are going to be unsurmountable for other teams, even Baylor. Sure Griner/Sims will get their points but consider the explosive potential of the line-ups that UCONN will throw at you.

 

[triaddukefan]

Duke does not impress me at all. Sorry, tridukefan,.

 

[Icebear]

No you are just pandaring.

 

[DEK1234]

In my opinion, Baylor proved that they are the best team in the nation when they went 40-0. I don't see much of a dropoff happening since Simms and Griner are returning. Until we see the 3 freshman with our own eyes and see how they gel with the UConn system, it's hard to make a prediction. I do think it's possible that UConn can evolve and get better as the season goes along and give Baylor a run for their money. But come November, I've still got Baylor #1.

 

[easttexastrash]

UCONN will be the only team with a chance to beat Baylor, IMO. Don't underestimate the talent that Baylor will be adding next year and the amount of improvement that Griner can still make. Griner will be as close to unstoppable as any player has ever been in the history of WCBB. Prince and Chandler are going to add depth and good size (both at 6-2). Chandler is going to surprise a lot of folks next year since she has been out of the mix for a while.

Stewart apparently has length but to think that she is going to mix it up with BG in the paint and slow her down much is asking a lot of a freshman. Facing BG early in the year will definitely help but facing BG for the first time is an experience that you just can't prepare a young player for.

 

[Bestiarius]

There's a clear separation between Baylor and everyone else. Now that Baylor has a title, they will only be better, because confidence will loom large and Griner will loom even larger. They were 20 pts. better than everyone come tourney time. I don't see anyone coming within 10 pts.

No doubt that Baylor is logically alone at the top based on pre season analysis. But, the potential for a stumble is great because the eggs are in one basket. Not saying they don't have other good players, but Brittney is so important that injury or foul trouble would be problematic. Uconn lucked out during the double undefeated seasons because Maya stayed healthy.

Assuming (and hoping) there are no Baylor health or foul issues, I believe Uconn has a good shot at a win anyway. Last year Uconn couldn't seem to sustain top level performance and blew fairly substantial leads. Next year, the personnel will be available to go hard the entire game. I think that will be the difference.

 

[doggydaddy]

UCONN will be the only team with a chance to beat Baylor, IMO. Don't underestimate the talent that Baylor will be adding next year and the amount of improvement that Griner can still make. Griner will be as close to unstoppable as any player has ever been in the history of WCBB. Prince and Chandler are going to add depth and good size (both at 6-2). Chandler is going to surprise a lot of folks next year since she has been out of the mix for a while.

Stewart apparently has length but to think that she is going to mix it up with BG in the paint and slow her down much is asking a lot of a freshman. Facing BG early in the year will definitely help but facing BG for the first time is an experience that you just can't prepare a young player for.

I don't know if you still have me on ignore, but I'd like to respond.

I agree. I think only UConn has a chance to beat Baylor. And I don't think anyone is underestimating a team that won all of their games last year. Chandler and Prince will add nice depth to the frontcourt and might push Pope even further back in the rotation, although she had a nice game against ND.

I think you are misinterpreting what Stewart will bring to the table. She won't be covering Griner. She will be playing the 3 or 4. It will be Dolson and Stokes that have the "pleasure" of covering Griner. And no one stops Griner.

The thing that is interesting to me is when Dolson and Stewart are in the game at the same time, how will Baylor defend that. Both can post up and both can shoot from the foul line extended. I think that will be part of how Uconn will score against Baylor. And with Lewis and Hartley on the outside for kickouts, it will be a tough offense to stop.

I can't wait to see the matchup. UConn showed they can play with Baylor last year, and no matter how good Prince and Chandler are, the talent of Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson are better. Personally, I don't think that is close. Stewart is in a class by herself.

 

[Vowelguy]

UCONN will be the only team with a chance to beat Baylor, IMO.

Agreed.


How much would ESPN salivate over Baylor (38-0) vs UConn (37-1) for an NC?

 

[Icebear]

And here I was thinking more like Baylor 38-1 and UConn 38-0. Remember Baylor was to be set up for another 40 game season.

 

[Vowelguy]

Remember Baylor was to be set up for another 40 game season.

Don't believe so.

And I'm sure ESPN would prefer Baylor win the first match, as that would also put a 78-game winning streak on the line for the NC.

 

[EricLA]

The thing that is interesting to me is when Dolson and Stewart are in the game at the same time, how will Baylor defend that. Both can post up and both can shoot from the foul line extended. I think that will be part of how Uconn will score against Baylor. And with Lewis and Hartley on the outside for kickouts, it will be a tough offense to stop.

I can't wait to see the matchup. UConn showed they can play with Baylor last year, and no matter how good Prince and Chandler are, the talent of Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson are better. Personally, I don't think that is close. Stewart is in a class by herself.

Pretty much agree with everything you said. and yeah, Baylor should be excited about getting Prince and getting Chandler back, but the 3 players Baylor lost to graduation (condrey, field and palmer) combined for 8 PPG and 35 MPG. unless you think Prince or Chandler will be replacing Williams, Hayden or Madden, then both will be coming off the bench and probably won't be contributing nearly as much as the starters.

i'm not trying to dismiss or downplay Baylor, but Prince and Chandler are nice, but not in the same league as Stewart, Jefferson or Tuck. it goes back to the argument that some have had with other rivals - unless you are landing 97 or 98 or 99 rated kids, getting a bunch of top 20 players who are rated 95 or 96 won't let you keep up with the Duke's, UCONN's or Maryland's of the world (or Baylor, Stanford, ND going back).

just for kicks i went back to 2009 and pulled the kids who were either rated 97 or above, and/or have had a pretty huge impact on their teams and probably should have been 97's or higher (i'm sure i'm missing some as this is a cursory list)

2009 - Griner (Baylor), Diggins (ND), Bone (aTm)
2010 - Ogwumike (Stanford), Sims (Baylor), Gray (Duke), Thomas (MD), Hartley (UCONN)
2011 - KML (UCONN), Williams (Duke)
2012 - Stewart (UCONN), Jefferson (UCONN), Jones (Duke), Loyd (ND), Graves (Tennessee), Howard (MD), Tuck (UCONN)

yeah i know Tuck was not rated a 97, but she's blown the doors off the US National Team and AA games as far as stats go compared to others in her class. Baylor is a rock star right now but after the lose Griner, Pope, Williams, Hayden and Madden, they wont' be a final 4 team. top 10 sure, but not competing with the likes of Duke, UCONN, Maryland, or a few others. Anyhoo, there's a lot of recruiting left. Baylor fans are clearly on cloud 9 and rightfully so. and the future looks bright. just not as bright as several others...

and for 2012, btw, i'd argue that the elite of the class is Russell, Deshields and Davis. That's mostly everyone's consensus top 3 and i'd argue that they will be the only ones rated a 98 for current skills and future potential. it takes a perfect storm for a team like aTm to win without several of those top kids on their team.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

And here I was thinking more like Baylor 38-1 and UConn 38-0. Remember Baylor was to be set up for another 40 game season.

Don't think it is possible. To my reading, you have to be in the pre-season WNIT to play 40 - and that is once every 4 years. Of course, there could be another loop-hole, but it doesn't seem likely to me.

 

[Icebear]

Don't think it is possible. To my reading, you have to be in the pre-season WNIT to play 40 - and that is once every 4 years. Of course, there could be another loop-hole, but it doesn't seem likely to me.

She was asking to play in the first round of the Big 12 without any byes. That would have accomplished it, too. Similarly if the Big East went to a straight 16 team bracket the same would be true for the Big East.

 

[alexrgct]

Put a gun a to my head, and I predict UConn beats Baylor in Hartford and loses to Baylor in New Orleans. And then goes on a tear 2013-14 and 2014-15. I imagine both UConn and Baylor fans would take that.

 

[Vowelguy]

She was asking to play in the first round of the Big 12 without any byes.

Duh. That was a joke by ETT.

 

[Icebear]

Duh. That was a joke by ETT.

Among ETT's rants sometimes it is hard to know what is true. Either way UConn could play 40 and go 40-0 if the Big East went to a standard bracket.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Are you appropriating a member of the Boneyard for your personal amusement?

 

[Coler]

2009 - Griner (Baylor), Diggins (ND), Bone (aTm)
2010 - Ogwumike (Stanford), Sims (Baylor), Gray (Duke), Thomas (MD), Hartley (UCONN)
2011 - KML (UCONN), Williams (Duke)
2012 - Stewart (UCONN), Jefferson (UCONN), Jones (Duke), Loyd (ND), Graves (Tennessee), Howard (MD), Tuck (UCONN)

Eric, you missed Rachel Hollivay who also has a 97 rating for the 2012 class.

 

[easttexastrash]

Pretty much agree with everything you said. and yeah, Baylor should be excited about getting Prince and getting Chandler back, but the 3 players Baylor lost to graduation (condrey, field and palmer) combined for 8 PPG and 35 MPG. unless you think Prince or Chandler will be replacing Williams, Hayden or Madden, then both will be coming off the bench and probably won't be contributing nearly as much as the starters.

i'm not trying to dismiss or downplay Baylor, but Prince and Chandler are nice, but not in the same league as Stewart, Jefferson or Tuck. it goes back to the argument that some have had with other rivals - unless you are landing 97 or 98 or 99 rated kids, getting a bunch of top 20 players who are rated 95 or 96 won't let you keep up with the Duke's, UCONN's or Maryland's of the world (or Baylor, Stanford, ND going back).

just for kicks i went back to 2009 and pulled the kids who were either rated 97 or above, and/or have had a pretty huge impact on their teams and probably should have been 97's or higher (i'm sure i'm missing some as this is a cursory list)

2009 - Griner (Baylor), Diggins (ND), Bone (aTm)
2010 - Ogwumike (Stanford), Sims (Baylor), Gray (Duke), Thomas (MD), Hartley (UCONN)
2011 - KML (UCONN), Williams (Duke)
2012 - Stewart (UCONN), Jefferson (UCONN), Jones (Duke), Loyd (ND), Graves (Tennessee), Howard (MD), Tuck (UCONN)

yeah i know Tuck was not rated a 97, but she's blown the doors off the US National Team and AA games as far as stats go compared to others in her class. Baylor is a rock star right now but after the lose Griner, Pope, Williams, Hayden and Madden, they wont' be a final 4 team. top 10 sure, but not competing with the likes of Duke, UCONN, Maryland, or a few others. Anyhoo, there's a lot of recruiting left. Baylor fans are clearly on cloud 9 and rightfully so. and the future looks bright. just not as bright as several others...

and for 2012, btw, i'd argue that the elite of the class is Russell, Deshields and Davis. That's mostly everyone's consensus top 3 and i'd argue that they will be the only ones rated a 98 for current skills and future potential. it takes a perfect storm for a team like aTm to win without several of those top kids on their team.

I disagree about Chandler not making the same impact that any of the UCONN freshmen will. IMO, Chandler will contribute more for Baylor next year than Tuck will for UCONN, simply due to her age and knowledge of Mulkey's system. I watched Chandler in drills and she is an INCREDIBLE athlete and is going to challenge for a lot of playing time. She may not start but she is going to be a major contributor and I suspect take a lot of Pope's minutes. Of the three players you listed as graduating, only Condrey got minutes against quality opponents. Field and Palmer only got into the game if Baylor had a large lead.

After this senior class graduates, Baylor will not be a top 4 team unless they can land a couple of top players from the 2013 class. They will probably need to land Mercedes Russell to challenge for a Final Four. Sims, Russell, Prince and Chandler would make up a pretty strong team.

Once Griner graduates there will be no team that will challenge UCONN for 3 years. I would not be surprised to see UCONN go three seasons without a loss.

 

[Kibitzer]

Once Griner graduates there will be no team that will challenge UCONN for 3 years. I would not be surprised to see UCONN go three seasons without a loss.

Isn't it against the Boneyard rules for visiting posters (like ETT) to use UConn/Boneyard posters (e.g., TonyC) as their ghost-writers?

Three seasons without a loss computes to something like 117-0, suspiciously similar to some of TonyC's past prognostications.

 

[EricLA]

I disagree about Chandler not making the same impact that any of the UCONN freshmen will. IMO, Chandler will contribute more for Baylor next year than Tuck will for UCONN, simply due to her age and knowledge of Mulkey's system. I watched Chandler in drills and she is an INCREDIBLE athlete and is going to challenge for a lot of playing time. She may not start but she is going to be a major contributor and I suspect take a lot of Pope's minutes. Of the three players you listed as graduating, only Condrey got minutes against quality opponents. Field and Palmer only got into the game if Baylor had a large lead.

After this senior class graduates, Baylor will not be a top 4 team unless they can land a couple of top players from the 2013 class. They will probably need to land Mercedes Russell to challenge for a Final Four. Sims, Russell, Prince and Chandler would make up a pretty strong team.

Once Griner graduates there will be no team that will challenge UCONN for 3 years. I would not be surprised to see UCONN go three seasons without a loss.

well that make sense. i do recall you saying that Chandler was looking really good. so she will probably take some of Pope's minutes. and i was not pointing out that Baylor loses a lot. they only lost a total average of 8 PPG and 35 MPG from the 3 who are leaving.

and we agree that Baylor loses a lot. Sims, Prince and Chandler will be a good core in 2 years. if you land Russell, you probably land Muvunga too. what do you think your chances are? we all know Tennessee has "narrowed" their focus to 6-7 of the top 15 players, but L'ville fans seem to feel good about Russell. Anyone but Tennessee IMHO for Russell. I'd rather see L'ville get her, but I guess we will see...

 

[EricLA]

Eric, you missed Rachel Hollivay who also has a 97 rating for the 2012 class.

Has she been injured? I thought about her but she wasn't in any of the all star games was she? she didn't make the USA National U17 team and i sort of get the impression she's maybe not as good as her ranking. maybe i'm wrong as i don't follow her at all, but why wasn't she on any of those elite teams?