Carnage today in WCBB top 15... should lock up a 2 seed for UConn, as long as we take care of business. | The Boneyard

Carnage today in WCBB top 15... should lock up a 2 seed for UConn, as long as we take care of business.

CTtoSanDiego

CTtoSanDiego

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# 8 UCLA, #9 Miss St, #11 Arizona and #13 Depaul all lost to unranked teams today. That (especially UCLA and Miss St) should pretty much lock up a #2 seed for our Huskies, as long as we keep our AAC streak alive. Still might need help to get the coveted overall #5 so we can avoid the Big Three until the Final Four. Stanford plays OR on ESPN Monday night. Not sure what effect a Cardinal loss will have, as they are currently ahead of us in the rankings and bracketology.
 
I read an article today suggesting that perhaps Paige could resurrect the dynasty UConn "used" to have. Yes I know - they have so far had a bad year - they actually lost 3 (THREE) games to the top 3 teams in the country in what is reportedly a down year. I agree that they have not seemed the well oiled machine often this year but they are still very good. For the first time in a small while didn't get the #1 recruit this year. Aww gee. Lost the last 2 years in a semifinal national championship game. Could finally miss a final 4 (which could happen to any team any year). Yes they reload next year and once the new players get used to the system should perhaps be even better. Who knows for sure. Ask ND. It just seems to me a POSSIBLE down year does not a dynasty end. I love these guys :).
 
To get to the coveted #5, we need to be ahead of 2 out of the following 3 -- Louisville, Stanford, Maryland. I really think the NCAA will find (and justify) a way to put us out West with Oregon. Seems destined.
 
“Not sure what effect a Cardinal loss will have, as they are currently ahead of us in the rankings and bracketology”
Stanford has a tough row to hoe ending regular play. After the Ducks they finish on the road at the Arizonas. Who lost today but are tough at home. Haven’t heard about McDonalds possible return tho.
 
Has Stanford released any information on Haley Jones injury. Unable to watch any of the PAC12 games but I do check the box scores and Jones is never mentioned?
 
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I’m figuring Stanford’s gonna lose 1 or more times which should knock them behind the Huskies. Would very much like to see both Louisville & MD stumble once each before the Big Dance. Finally, I’d like to see NC State win out and take the ACC tournament. If all of that happens, I think that puts UConn in the coveted Ft Wayne Region with NC State as the top 2 teams.
 
ConnecticutBB said:
Has Stanford released any information on Haley Jones injury. Unable to watch any of the PAC12 games but I do check the box scores and Jones is never mentioned?
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Stanford does not release information on injured players.
 
I doubt UConn cares where they are seeded like Geno often says. To win the NC you have to beat everyone you play in the tournament. 4 Numbers 1s rarely get to the final 4. I know I'm a homer but if Stanford stays ahead of UConn they will have earned it. I'll be happy if UConn is the dark horse getting to the final 4!
 
SLY63 said:
To get to the coveted #5, we need to be ahead of 2 out of the following 3 -- Louisville, Stanford, Maryland. I really think the NCAA will find (and justify) a way to put us out West with Oregon. Seems destined.
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I agree. Creme has been a front man for the committee for 2 years and he has had UConn out west. What will be odd is if they send UConn west and send Oregon St east, when for a couple of years they have emphasised trying to limit travel and have used that rationale when explaining many regional placings.
Reminds of a Neil Young lyric. "Can't believe he could tell so many lies, he had a different story for every set of eyes." :rolleyes:
 
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This looks like good news for UConn at first glance. But there are a couple twists:
  • DePaul's loss to Nova hurts UConn's resume because it devalues what is by far our best win.
  • On the other hand, the teams that are probably standing between UConn and a spot in the Ft. Wayne regional -- Maryland, Louisville and Stanford -- were not among the casualties today.
Edit to add: Some additional food for thought: What would we rather be, a #3 in Ft. Wayne or a #2 seed anywhere else?
 
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Plebe said:
This looks like good news for UConn at first glance. But there are a couple twists:
  • DePaul's loss to Nova hurts UConn's resume because it devalues what is by far our best win.
  • On the other hand, the teams that are probably standing between UConn and a spot in the Ft. Wayne regional -- Maryland, Louisville and Stanford -- were not among the casualties today.
Edit to add: Some additional food for thought: What would we rather be, a #3 in Ft. Wayne or a #2 seed anywhere else?
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I'd rather be a 5 seed in Fort Wayne than a 2 seed against one of the big 3. It's not even that you'd avoid playing one of them before the Final Four, it's that you avoid playing them on the road. At least in the Final Four you'll get a neutral crowd.
 
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Now it's becoming very simple per our path to the overall 4 or 5 seed:
*** If Stanford wins tomorrow, they're pretty much a lock for the 4th one seed.
*** Oregon, SC, Baylor, even with losses in conference tournaments, have already locked up 1 seeds.
*** If Stanford loses, we still need Louisville or Maryland to lose their conference tournaments.

Don't see any other paths.
 
bballnut90 said:
I'd rather be a 5 seed in Fort Wayne than a 2 seed against one of the big 3. It's not even that you'd avoid playing one of them before the Final Four, it's that you avoid playing them on the road. At least in the Final Four you'll get a neutral crowd.
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The die is pretty well cast here. Assuming UConn wins out, they will likely be the final #1 seed, or one of the four #2 seeds. So what UConn is looking for is the #1 or #2 seed in Ft Wayne which in all likelihood puts off a rematch with the top 3 teams until the FF.

Make no mistake, getting back to a 13th straight FF will be no easy task. UConn should hold serve during the 1st & 2nd rounds in Storrs, and then they will most certainly face some very good teams in the regional.
 
Brad Palmer said:
Now it's becoming very simple per our path to the overall 4 or 5 seed:
*** If Stanford wins tomorrow, they're pretty much a lock for the 4th one seed.
*** Oregon, SC, Baylor, even with losses in conference tournaments, have already locked up 1 seeds.
*** If Stanford loses, we still need Louisville or Maryland to lose their conference tournaments.

Don't see any other paths.
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I don't think beating Oregon is quite that cut and dry for Stanford to nab a #1. Even with a win they have 2 tough road games left at the AZ schools, and they'll likely need to beat UCLA in the Pac 12 tournament to get the last 1. As long as Stanford isn't a 1 seed, they're of no concern to Connecticut since they're unlikely to be shipped out east as a 2. My guess is they end up in Dallas or Greenville. I think Stanford loses to Oregon tomorrow and at least 1 other game prior to the Pac 12 tournament championship game which puts them at a 2 and out of UCONN's concern.



Maryland and Louisville are the big ones to worry about. If they win out, they'll likely get Fort Wayne over the Huskies. Maryland has more breathing room than Louisville too. The Big 10 tournament isn't going to be a cake walk with Northwestern playing really well. Maryland does look like the hottest team though outside of the big 3.

Louisville is a wildcard since their losses were without Balogun. I'm not sure what to expect from the committee regarding how much their losses will hurt them, but if they win out their resume looks a lot stronger than UCONN's in my opinion, especially if they knock off NC State again.

It's also worth keeping an eye on DePaul and Ohio State. DePaul was fringe top 25 RPI prior to today's loss, and they might be out of the top 25 right now. Ohio State is #23 so they're also on the fringe. If both slip, UCONN has 0 top 25 RPI wins.

For top 50 wins, UCONN has those 2 safely, UCF who is #40 RPI, Oklahoma at 56, Virginia at 59, Tennessee at 61, and USF at 67. If a couple of those teams finish strong and enter the top 50, UCONN's resume is helped.

Worst case scenario if UCONN wins out is that they have an 0-3 record vs top 25 RPI, and just a 2-3 record vs. top 50. Best case is 2-3 vs top 25, and anywhere from 8-9 wins vs top 50 teams if the AAC.
 
oldude said:
I’m figuring Stanford’s gonna lose 1 or more times which should knock them behind the Huskies. Would very much like to see both Louisville & MD stumble once each before the Big Dance. Finally, I’d like to see NC State win out and take the ACC tournament. If all of that happens, I think that puts UConn in the coveted Ft Wayne Region with NC State as the top 2 teams.
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I've never heard coveted and Ft Wayne in the same sentence before.
 
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BostonBay said:
To get the biggest crowds, the committee should put Louisville/UConn in Indiana, Oregon/Stanford in the West., and Maryland in SC. Lets get practical here.
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Assuming Oregon is the #1 seed in Portland, Stanford can't possibly be placed there unless they slip to 5th in the Pac-12 pecking order.
 
BostonBay said:
To get the biggest crowds, the committee should put Louisville/UConn in Indiana, Oregon/Stanford in the West., and Maryland in SC. Lets get practical here.
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Oregon and SC are going to draw massive crowds regardless of opponent. Fort Wayne's best attendance will be with Louisville there. Wont make a big difference if the opponent is UCONN or Maryland.
 
I think I would rather see UConn get a #3 in Fort Wayne, then be in the Bracket with Oregon and Baylor and to a lesser degree So Carolina. Team could have won the So Carolina game if they didn't score two points in the 1st quarter. Team had their chances at the start of the 1st quarter to get up 6-10 points, then the pressure reverts to So Carolina and off UConn. I still think So Carolina is the better team. More Depth off the bench. The downside to a #3 seed vs the #2 Seed, you are playing better teams in the 1st and 2nd round.
 
Let ‘s face it; if Maryland and Louisville run the table, they deserve the number 4 and 5 seeds. The AAC is down this year, but there are still some formidable teams to beat in their tournament. Same with the Big 10. UConn’s only hope is for one of them, or both, to lose in their respective leagues. Even that might not be enough.
The appropriate question right now is who from Oregon, Baylor or S.C. Is the best possibility for an upset.
 
Wbbfan1 said:
I think I would rather see UConn get a #3 in Fort Wayne, then be in the Bracket with Oregon and Baylor and to a lesser degree So Carolina. Team could have won the So Carolina game if they didn't score two points in the 1st quarter. Team had their chances at the start of the 1st quarter to get up 6-10 points, then the pressure reverts to So Carolina and off UConn. I still think So Carolina is the better team. More Depth off the bench. The downside to a #3 seed vs the #2 Seed, you are playing better teams in the 1st and 2nd round.
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I see no way that UConn falls to a #3 seed without losing an AAC game. so yes, I'd rather be #3 in FT Wayne than #2 elsewhere, but if we can't beat all the AAC teams, it probably doesn't matter anyway. And to whoever posted that to win the NC you have to beat good team, yes, that is generally true, but keeping our FF streak alive would be a good thing. And there was one year of the Stewie, Moriah and Tuck years (2016) where we faced two relatively weak teams in the FF (Syracuse and Oregon St). Sometimes other teams can do your dirty work for you, if you are in a different bracket. Like when Louisville upset Baylor with Griner for us.
 
CTtoSanDiego said:
I see no way that UConn falls to a #3 seed without losing an AAC game. so yes, I'd rather be #3 in FT Wayne than #2 elsewhere, but if we can't beat all the AAC teams, it probably doesn't matter anyway. And to whoever posted that to win the NC you have to beat good team, yes, that is generally true, but keeping our FF streak alive would be a good thing. And there was one year of the Stewie, Moriah and Tuck years (2016) where we faced two relatively weak teams in the FF (Syracuse and Oregon St). Sometimes other teams can do your dirty work for you, if you are in a different bracket. Like when Louisville upset Baylor with Griner for us.
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Good example of how important matchups are was South Carolina avoiding any #1 seeds or top 5 teams in 2017. Mississippi State took out undefeated UCONN and Turner's ACL/Stanford took out #2 ND. Those 2 appeared to be the heavy hitters which paved a much more favorable path for SC.


It looks like a sure thing the top 3 teams are locks for the Final Four based on the season, but anything can happen in the NCAAs. Just 4 years ago the #1 seeds had 1 combined loss to teams that werent #1 seeds and only 1 (UCONN) made the Final Four. Two got bounced in the Sweet 16, one in front of a home crowd in the Elite 8.


Back to the main point--anything can happen, but landing in Fort Wayne would be massive for the Huskies.
 
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