Can anyone beat the Huskies?

[oldude]

Can anyone beat the Huskies (Part I)

Last season, Geno made a couple significant pronouncements early in the season. In a post-game presser, Geno suggested that “some team needs to beat our ass, good and soon.” He knew that a loss might just be the extra motivation that his young team needed to give them the additional focus and motivation that could carry the team to its 12th championship. On an SNY show, at practice, under his breath, Geno also stated, “We’ve got a chance. We’ve got a chance.” in a clear indication that his young, undersized and undermanned team might just be good enough to win it all.

The loss came, but at the worst possible time, one game short of the promised land. I doubt that Geno will be calling for any team to beat the Huskies this season. Last season’s OT loss to MS St has achieved the goal of providing extra motivation and focus for all of the Huskies as they will be on a mission this entire season.

So can any of the usual suspects actually beat UConn this coming season? Every other top team in WBB has experienced key losses due to graduation, transfer & injury. Certainly, on any given day an upset can happen. Almost no one outside of Starkville, MS would have predicted that the Bulldogs would upset the Huskies last season. But Geno and the Huskies are absolutely loaded this coming season with 4 returning starters, including 3 AA’s, a super talented pg who is set to make her sophomore leap, 2 outstanding transfers with size and skill and one of the top recruiting classes in the nation, including the #1 HS player in the nation.

If a team were to beat UConn this coming season, it won’t be because of the Huskies lack of talent, preparation, conditioning or motivation. Those strengths are a given for UConn. The Huskies have never lost a game in the AAC and that’s unlikely to change this coming season. Upsets happen at the Big Dance, but until we know the brackets, it’s impossible to handicap UConn’s road to a 12th championship. In Part II of this thread, I have taken a look at the teams on UConn’s non-conference schedule that pose the greatest risk of an upset, providing my take on each team along with my odds of an upset.

 

[oldude]

Can anyone beat the Huskies (Part II)

OSU – 1st game of the season in Columbus. The Buckeyes are always talented and Kelsey Mitchell may well break Kelsey Plum’s all-time scoring record set a year earlier. Stephanie Mavunga is a big-time post player. But the transfer of McCoy really hurts OSU’s front court depth, and McGuff has never been able to devise and execute a game plan against Geno. Mitchell will need to play the game of her life, and even then, it may not be enough. Odds of OSU win = 10/1

Cal – With one of the best BIGS in WBB in Kristine Anigwe, Cal was a bit of a disappointment last season at 20-12. But they were a very young team and have most everyone back this season. The Golden Bears will be better this season, but they will be flying cross country to face the Huskies in CT in November. Odds of Cal win = 20/1

MD – The Turtles have played the Huskies as close as anyone during the past 2 seasons. But they graduated their 2 best players (Jones & Walker-Kimbrough) and lost a future AA pg (Slocum) as one of several transfers. Brenda has some talent but she has her work cut out for her. MD will face the Huskies in CT in Nov. The game will not be close this year. Odds of MD win = 30/1

MSU – The Spartans had an up and down year last season at 21-12, and graduated high-scoring Tori Jankoska, but they have a good core of returning seniors. The game will be played in Oregon as part of Phil Knight’s 80th birthday celebration as a stable of Nike-wearing teams make the trip to the PNW. Odds of MSU win – 30/1

UCLA – While UCLA never threatened UConn in the regionals in March, they hung around in large measure due to the outstanding play of pg Jordan Canada who will lead a senior dominated team this season. HC Cori Close has made three pilgrimages to Storrs to learn from the Master and the game will be played at Pauley Pavilion. This one could be interesting. The Bruins stayed with the Huskies in March due in part to some long-range shooting from the cheap seats by seniors Korver & Kornet who are both gone. This will also be a homecoming of sorts for Lou. Odds of UCLA win = 5/2

ND – You can always expect the Irish to be talented and well-coached. ND lost Allen to graduation and key reserves to transfer, but Lili Thompson from Stanford will take over the pg role and they bring in some talented freshmen. The big variable is Brianna Turner. Will she play this season, and if so, how healthy will she be? The game will be in CT. Odds of ND win = 3/1 (w healthy Turner), 6/1 (without)

OK – It was not that long ago that Sheri Coale appeared to be one of the great young coaches in WBB, and the Sooners were a perennial top-10 team with 3 trips to the FF. But OK was overtaken by both Baylor and TX in the Big 12 and while they are always competitive, they seem to have fallen back into the pack of 2nd tier top-25 teams. The game will be played at the Mohegan Sun. Odds of OK win = 30-1

TX – Karen Aston’s Longhorns have been nipping at Baylor’s heels in the Big 12 for several years. This may be the year that TX finally overtakes Baylor in the Big 12. They graduate Kelsey Lang in the middle but have SC transfer Jatarie White to step in. The senior backcourt of Atkins and McCarty may be as good as any in the country. Joyner Holmes is an absolute force in the paint and TX has an outstanding recruiting class. The game will be played in Austin on January 15. Odds of TX win = 5/2

SC – The last two national champions will face off in Feb in Columbia. Dawn has NPOY candidate Aja Wilson, returning starters Harris & Bianca Cuevas from the national championship game and a group of talented reserves and newbies that should be firing on all cylinders by Feb. Expect that Geno will also have his loaded team working like a symphony by Feb. This will be “must watch” TV. Odds of SC win = 2/1

Lou – Jeff Walz has been running something of a revolving door at Louisville, bringing in one talented recruiting class after another only to lose players to transfer. The talent is evident with players like Durr and Hines-Allen, but continuity appears to be lacking for the Cardinals. This game will be played in Feb in CT. Odds of Lou win = 20-1

 

[HoopsFan21]

We know Mississippi State can. I saw them do it 3 months ago with my very own eyes.

 

[eebmg]

"could" (past tense) not "can" (present tense). I think we are a smidgen better this year.

 

[meyers7]

Can anyone beat UCONN? Well, maybe not "anyone", but there are a few teams that could. Do I expect any team to beat UCONN this year? No. If someone does, I'd consider it a fluke/upset/indication of the coming apocalypse.

 

[huskeynut]

Of course UConn could be beaten by one of the teams you list. In this order - SC, ND and Texas have the most realistic shot.

With Wilson SC will always be in the game. They have also played UConn enough to know how we function. That being said, Dawn will have her problems with an offensively challenged program that struggles to score more that 70 points per game. The addition of Z, Batouly and the frosh make UConn a tougher out.

ND - with Turner this can be a good game. Without Turner, ND is in trouble. I don't think Turner will play this season. They will not have the front court to stay with UConn. ND has lost is cohesive offense the last couple of years. We see more one-on-one play and run and gun out of ND. And the flops don't work anymore.

Texas - big with some serious talent. They have made great strides the last two seasons on playing UConn even. Their guards are really good. The question is can Texas play defense to stop UConn.

The major problem all teams will face against UConn is stopping the offense. If Z starts, and I believe she will, UConn will again have 5 starters who can, and probably will, score in double figures. You can't use box-on-one and other types of defenses to stop UConn. You have to play them straight up. UConn also has enough 3 point shooters to make playing a zone defense difficult. And UConn can exploit the weak spot in the zone, top of the key to foul line, with Lou, Pheesa, Z and Gabby.

Most teams have a couple of scorers and rest is a supporting cast. Not UConn. There in lies every opponents problem. They don't have enough fire power to stay the us. Can't wait for November!

 

[HoopsFan21]

Can anyone beat UConn? Well, maybe not "anyone", but there are a few teams that could. Do I expect any team to beat UConn this year? No. If someone does, I'd consider it a fluke/upset/indication of the coming apocalypse.

Why would it be a fluke? Teams really are getting better, and so is the coaching. There is now more talent to go around to different teams, and the training to go along with it.

 

[oldude]

We know Mississippi State can. I saw them do it 3 months ago with my very own eyes.

Unfortunately, the Bulldogs are not on the schedule this coming season. Whether they meet up with the Huskies in the post season remains to be seen.

If they were on the schedule I'd set the odds of a MS St win at 5/1.

 

[meyers7]

Why would it be a fluke? Teams really are getting better, and so is the coaching. There is now more talent to go around to different teams, and the training to go along with it.

With the talent and coaching UCONN has this coming season, they shouldn't lose. They can/may, but they shouldn't. It would be flukey/odd/strange/unexpected/weird/an upset/surprising, whatever you want to call it.

 

[AAADog]

With the talent and coaching UConn has this coming season, they shouldn't lose. They can/may, but they shouldn't. It would be flukey/odd/strange/unexpected/weird/an upset/surprising, whatever you want to call it.

I agree. OldDude makes it sound like we could really lose, and I don't see it. I have never been as sure about an undefeated season as I am this year. UCONN just has too much. Too much experience; too many weapons; too much depth. It is hard to imagine that even injuries or fouls could be a problem. It is going to be a very rough year for our opponents.

 

[bizarro aj]

Usually there's only one team that can beat uconn and that's uconn. Miss st didn't beat uconn as much as uconn beat themselves. There's no doubt in my mind that if uconn wins that game they win their 12th NC. I don't see any single digit wins for uconn this coming season, you can expect all blowouts all the way to their 12th.

 

[oldude]

I agree. OldDude makes it sound like we could really lose, and I don't see it. I have never been as sure about an undefeated season as I am this year. UConn just has too much. Too much experience; too many weapons; too much depth. It is hard to imagine that even injuries or fouls could be a problem. It is going to be a very rough year for our opponents.

While I think it's highly unlikely, of course UConn "can" lose. "Will they lose?" is the question I look forward to seeing debated on this thread.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Can anyone beat the Huskies (Part I)

Last season, Geno made a couple significant pronouncements early in the season. In a post-game presser, Geno suggested that “some team needs to beat our ass, good and soon.” He knew that a loss might just be the extra motivation that his young team needed to give them the additional focus and motivation that could carry the team to its 12th championship. On an SNY show, at practice, under his breath, Geno also stated, “We’ve got a chance. We’ve got a chance.” in a clear indication that his young, undersized and undermanned team might just be good enough to win it all.

The loss came, but at the worst possible time, one game short of the promised land. I doubt that Geno will be calling for any team to beat the Huskies this season. Last season’s OT loss to MS St has achieved the goal of providing extra motivation and focus for all of the Huskies as they will be on a mission this entire season.

So can any of the usual suspects actually beat UConn this coming season? Every other top team in WBB has experienced key losses due to graduation, transfer & injury. Certainly, on any given day an upset can happen. Almost no one outside of Starkville, MS would have predicted that the Bulldogs would upset the Huskies last season. But Geno and the Huskies are absolutely loaded this coming season with 4 returning starters, including 3 AA’s, a super talented pg who is set to make her sophomore leap, 2 outstanding transfers with size and skill and one of the top recruiting classes in the nation, including the #1 HS player in the nation.

If a team were to beat UConn this coming season, it won’t be because of the Huskies lack of talent, preparation, conditioning or motivation. Those strengths are a given for UConn. The Huskies have never lost a game in the AAC and that’s unlikely to change this coming season. Upsets happen at the Big Dance, but until we know the brackets, it’s impossible to handicap UConn’s road to a 12th championship. In Part II of this thread, I have taken a look at the teams on UConn’s non-conference schedule that pose the greatest risk of an upset, providing my take on each team along with my odds of an upset.

Before I get to PART 2---
Who can beat the Huskies??? You saw last year who could beat them---Themselves.
Until I see this Uconn team in action--I don't see huge amounts of great talent beyond MAYBE
6---true that 6 is highly experienced and talented--but legitimate talented depth needs time to show.

 

[oldude]

legitimate talented depth needs time to show.

You raise an interesting point. UConn always builds through the course of a season to the tournament when they are typically firing on all cylinders. Geno has a lot of players, and he will be experimenting with various combinations until he finds his ideal rotation of 8 or so players.

Early in the season some of those experiments may not work out and it's possible that the Huskies could play some "ugly" basketball, particularly when attempting to work in the bench/freshmen to the rotation.

The conclusion might be that you have to get the Huskies early next season or not at all.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Unfortunately, the Bulldogs are not on the schedule this coming season. Whether they meet up with the Huskies in the post season remains to be seen.

If they were on the schedule I'd set the odds of a MS St win at 5/1.

PART 2---Thank you, exceptional in depth, and accurate as far as I could tell, your odd's, are your's , I think you are generous to opponents.
On ranking those that maybe, possibly, could beat Uconn I'd list, in order: ND, USC, Texas
I never under rate the emotional factor in ND-Uconn or USC-Uconn games--many games have been won (or lost) on Emotions. Home advantages for USC carries emotions higher--risky game.
The Ms St game --I wonder if either coach tried to schedule that this year??
OK --you are correct --they went from top 10 --down. For ME, Sherri Coale is one of my top 3 favorite coaches and a just very nice person--I'll always cheer her teams.
PART 1---I looked for something to disagree with and my above posting is all I could find--dang, life is terrible--I can't make a single NASTY comment.

 

[eebmg]

The way probability works is that if you are given the odds like 5/1 , that is saying the probability of occurrence is 20% (or 0.2). If we ask what is the probability that all events (losses) occur, you multiply probabilities. On the other hand, if we ask what is the probability of one event occuring (i.e loss to team A or team B or team C etc), you add the probabilities so if we are over 1, you expect at least one loss. If you get over 2, expect 2 losses etc. This of course makes sense only if the events are independant and does not take into account added confidence etc but it seems the odds would indicate maybe 2 losses would be "expected" based on oldudes odds.

 

[UcMiami]

We really are a spoiled fan base!
Undefeated seasons even for the juggernaut that is Uconn WCBB are rare things and they often die in the most unexpected circumstances - a St. Johns's here, a Villanova there, and even a rebuilding Stanford.

There is no doubt the talent on this years team is impressive with the transfers and the returning starters. But talent alone or even talent and really good coaching does not guarantee a good season let alone a great or undefeated one. Chemistry and some luck are required and chemistry is never guaranteed.

On the OP - I think UCLA is over-hyped - they haven't done anything yet much like OSU.

 

[Ozimoto]

This could be a season like the 2014-2015 season when the Huskies lost early in the season to Stanford. I don't expect it, but if that happens, much like the loss to Stanford, it will become a "release the kraaken" moment that will result in the creation of an absolute juggernaut by NCAA tournament time.

However, if you were to ask me, I think the Mississippi State game in the tournament will prove to be the moment that the juggernaut was released for this season. I don't expect a loss and I expect the team to have a "take no prisoners" approach to the season.

They seem so sweet and nice until the game is being played.

 

[BroadwayVa]

While I think it's highly unlikely, of course UConn "can" lose. "Will they lose?" is the question I look forward to seeing debated on this thread.

As you so skillfully pointed out---Geno (while hating losses) believed a loss would be motivational.
While I too dislike losses--except for an ego trip for fans--Uconn has won it "all" with losses. You cannot ignore the prize--while igand the positive effects of a loss.

The way probability works is that if you are given the odds like 5/1 , that is saying the probability of occurrence is 20% (or 0.2). If we ask what is the probability that all events (losses) occur, you multiply probabilities. On the other hand, if we ask what is the probability of one event occuring (i.e loss to team A or team B or team C etc), you add the probabilities so if we are over 1, you expect at least one loss. If you get over 2, expect 2 losses etc. This of course makes sense only if the events are independant and does not take into account added confidence etc but it seems the odds would indicate maybe 2 losses would be "expected" based on oldudes odds.

As you pointed out a long time ago----each game is a stand alone event and the options are one of 2
so, disregarding emotions and potentials of individuals, the odds for that single game is 50%

 

[oldude]

The way probability works is that if you are given the odds like 5/1 , that is saying the probability of occurrence is 20% (or 0.2). If we ask what is the probability that all events (losses) occur, you multiply probabilities. On the other hand, if we ask what is the probability of one event occuring (i.e loss to team A or team B or team C etc), you add the probabilities so if we are over 1, you expect at least one loss. If you get over 2, expect 2 losses etc. This of course makes sense only if the events are independant and does not take into account added confidence etc but it seems the odds would indicate maybe 2 losses would be "expected" based on oldudes odds.

You are referring to a concept known as "contingent probability." Essentially that when one event occurs it impacts the probability of a 2nd event. I think it is fair to suggest that as UConn wins one big game after another, their level of performance and confidence will increase, reducing the probability of a loss. I would suggest that is exactly what took place last year as UConn rolled through it's brutal non-conference schedule.

By the same token, I believe that should UConn be upset this coming year, that too would decrease the probability of another loss due to the intense focus and motivation of the coaches and players that would be the result.

 

[BroadwayVa]

We really are a spoiled fan base!
Undefeated seasons even for the juggernaut that is UConn WCBB are rare things and they often die in the most unexpected circumstances - a St. Johns's here, a Villanova there, and even a rebuilding Stanford.

There is no doubt the talent on this years team is impressive with the transfers and the returning starters. But talent alone or even talent and really good coaching does not guarantee a good season let alone a great or undefeated one. Chemistry and some luck are required and chemistry is never guaranteed.

On the OP - I think UCLA is over-hyped - they haven't done anything yet much like OSU.

Thank you . Yes I too am a spoiled fan--but not so spoiled to not expect losses--digging into Geno's not so distant past--even with Maya and Charles and a cast of good support players--Maya lost her first ever (official) Uconn game to Stony Brook --can you imagine Stony Brook???
Geno has lost --it is not unheard of.

 

[BroadwayVa]

You are referring to a concept known as "contingent probability." Essentially that when one event occurs it impacts the probability of a 2nd event. I think it is fair to suggest that as UConn wins one big game after another, their level of performance and confidence will increase, reducing the probability of a loss. I would suggest that is exactly what took place last year as UConn rolled through it's brutal non-conference schedule.

By the same token, I believe that should UConn be upset this coming year, that too would decrease the probability of another loss due to the intense focus and motivation of the coaches and players that would be the result.

Contingent Probability--OLDUDE--do you seriously believe the negative effect of a loss to ND would have a negative impact on a USC game? On a non emotional view what connection does one game have on the next? I tend to see them as stand alone, except experience building events.
To take the lessor known Probability math out of the equation---the Possibility of a Uconn loss following a previous loss--is highly unlikely.

 

[oldude]

Contingent Probability--OLDUDE--do you seriously believe the negative effect of a loss to ND would have a negative impact on a USC game? On a non emotional view what connection does one game have on the next? I tend to see them as stand alone, except experience building events.
To take the lessor known Probability math out of the equation---the Possibility of a UConn loss following a previous loss--is highly unlikely.

I believe you may have misread my post. I suggest exactly the opposite, that a loss would "decrease the probability of another loss."

 

[skilz]

Although other teams not named UConn may seem to have a lot of talent, the one thing other teams don't do is PLAY as a team! UConn girls seem to always mesh together and play as team, where other schools/players seem to have issues with the words "I" or "ME."

 

[HoopsFan21]

I'll predict a loss at South Carolina. The game is at their place, and Wilson's a senior, so I expect her to be in beast mode.