Can anyone beat the Huskies?

[RockyMTblue2]

Debating whether we might lose (singular) this season, yes we are a most blessed fan base. I'll bet Geno wants an early loss. He pretty much said he's sick of what the undefeated string means for the team. Thankfully, Geno doesn't play and I think this team, every one of them, newbies included, have different things in mind.

 

[AAADog]

I'll predict a loss at South Carolina. The game is at their place, and Wilson's a senior, so I expect her to be in beast mode.

Wilson is certainly great. But I think Azura can neutralize her. And then the other 4 UCONN players have a field day.

 

[SVCBeercats]

Can anyone beat the Huskies (Part I)

Of course they can be beaten. Geno has always said if they have an off night and they are playing a ranked team playing their A game, then UCONN may lose. See last year's semi-final. I'm sure Stanford' Tara Vanderveer would be more than happy to explain how any highly touted UCONN team can beaten.

 

[the Q]

Frankly they should stomp everyone into the ground this year.

Doesn't mean thy will. Stranger things have happened (Louisville Baylor is the big one that stands out), but if anyone is prepared for this level of expectations...it's Geno and his crew.

 

[oldude]

Of course they can be beaten. Geno has always said if they have an off night and they are playing a ranked team playing their A game, then UConn may lose. See last year's semi-final. I'm sure Stanford' Tara Vanderveer would be more than happy to explain how any highly touted UConn team can beat.

I probably should have changed the title of this thread to, "Will anyone beat the Huskies?"

 

[Golden Husky]

Can anyone beat the Huskies (Part II)

OSU – 1st game of the season in Columbus. The Buckeyes are always talented and Kelsey Mitchell may well break Kelsey Plum’s all-time scoring record set a year earlier. Stephanie Mavunga is a big-time post player. But the transfer of McCoy really hurts OSU’s front court depth, and McGuff has never been able to devise and execute a game plan against Geno. Mitchell will need to play the game of her life, and even then, it may not be enough. Odds of OSU win = 10/1

Cal – With one of the best BIGS in WBB in Kristine Anigwe, Cal was a bit of a disappointment last season at 20-12. But they were a very young team and have most everyone back this season. The Golden Bears will be better this season, but they will be flying cross country to face the Huskies in CT in November. Odds of Cal win = 20/1

MD – The Turtles have played the Huskies as close as anyone during the past 2 seasons. But they graduated their 2 best players (Jones & Walker-Kimbrough) and lost a future AA pg (Slocum) as one of several transfers. Brenda has some talent but she has her work cut out for her. MD will face the Huskies in CT in Nov. The game will not be close this year. Odds of MD win = 30/1

MSU – The Spartans had an up and down year last season at 21-12, and graduated high-scoring Tori Jankoska, but they have a good core of returning seniors. The game will be played in Oregon as part of Phil Knight’s 80th birthday celebration as a stable of Nike-wearing teams make the trip to the PNW. Odds of MSU win – 30/1

UCLA – While UCLA never threatened UConn in the regionals in March, they hung around in large measure due to the outstanding play of pg Jordan Canada who will lead a senior dominated team this season. HC Cori Close has made three pilgrimages to Storrs to learn from the Master and the game will be played at Pauley Pavilion. This one could be interesting. The Bruins stayed with the Huskies in March due in part to some long-range shooting from the cheap seats by seniors Korver & Kornet who are both gone. This will also be a homecoming of sorts for Lou. Odds of UCLA win = 5/2

ND – You can always expect the Irish to be talented and well-coached. ND lost Allen to graduation and key reserves to transfer, but Lili Thompson from Stanford will take over the pg role and they bring in some talented freshmen. The big variable is Brianna Turner. Will she play this season, and if so, how healthy will she be? The game will be in CT. Odds of ND win = 3/1 (w healthy Turner), 6/1 (without)

OK – It was not that long ago that Sheri Coale appeared to be one of the great young coaches in WBB, and the Sooners were a perennial top-10 team with 3 trips to the FF. But OK was overtaken by both Baylor and TX in the Big 12 and while they are always competitive, they seem to have fallen back into the pack of 2nd tier top-25 teams. The game will be played at the Mohegan Sun. Odds of OK win = 30-1

TX – Karen Aston’s Longhorns have been nipping at Baylor’s heels in the Big 12 for several years. This may be the year that TX finally overtakes Baylor in the Big 12. They graduate Kelsey Lang in the middle but have SC transfer Jatarie White to step in. The senior backcourt of Atkins and McCarty may be as good as any in the country. Joyner Holmes is an absolute force in the paint and TX has an outstanding recruiting class. The game will be played in Austin on January 15. Odds of TX win = 5/2

SC – The last two national champions will face off in Feb in Columbia. Dawn has NPOY candidate Aja Wilson, returning starters Harris & Bianca Cuevas from the national championship game and a group of talented reserves and newbies that should be firing on all cylinders by Feb. Expect that Geno will also have his loaded team working like a symphony by Feb. This will be “must watch” TV. Odds of SC win = 2/1

Lou – Jeff Walz has been running something of a revolving door at Louisville, bringing in one talented recruiting class after another only to lose players to transfer. The talent is evident with players like Durr and Hines-Allen, but continuity appears to be lacking for the Cardinals. This game will be played in Feb in CT. Odds of Lou win = 20-1

Boneyard MVP for you, Old Dude...or at least an honorary Oscar.

 

[oldude]

Boneyard MVP for you, Old Dude...or at least an honorary Oscar.

 

[Shorty Dee]

I do not see anyone beating UConn, but UConn. With this year's team, I believe if they have a game where shots are not falling and fouls are not called, more than one person will step up and UConn will win their game. With the motivation, determination and leadership, this team will not beat
themselves. I enjoyed the ride last year, and I am looking forward to the ride this year .

The games I really look forward to watching UConn play are....Notre Dame, DePaul, Texas, Maryland, Louisville and South Carolina.

 

[j66kicker]

Can anyone beat the Huskies (Part II)

OSU – 1st game of the season in Columbus. The Buckeyes are always talented and Kelsey Mitchell may well break Kelsey Plum’s all-time scoring record set a year earlier. Stephanie Mavunga is a big-time post player. But the transfer of McCoy really hurts OSU’s front court depth, and McGuff has never been able to devise and execute a game plan against Geno. Mitchell will need to play the game of her life, and even then, it may not be enough. Odds of OSU win = 10/1

Cal – With one of the best BIGS in WBB in Kristine Anigwe, Cal was a bit of a disappointment last season at 20-12. But they were a very young team and have most everyone back this season. The Golden Bears will be better this season, but they will be flying cross country to face the Huskies in CT in November. Odds of Cal win = 20/1

MD – The Turtles have played the Huskies as close as anyone during the past 2 seasons. But they graduated their 2 best players (Jones & Walker-Kimbrough) and lost a future AA pg (Slocum) as one of several transfers. Brenda has some talent but she has her work cut out for her. MD will face the Huskies in CT in Nov. The game will not be close this year. Odds of MD win = 30/1

MSU – The Spartans had an up and down year last season at 21-12, and graduated high-scoring Tori Jankoska, but they have a good core of returning seniors. The game will be played in Oregon as part of Phil Knight’s 80th birthday celebration as a stable of Nike-wearing teams make the trip to the PNW. Odds of MSU win – 30/1

UCLA – While UCLA never threatened UConn in the regionals in March, they hung around in large measure due to the outstanding play of pg Jordan Canada who will lead a senior dominated team this season. HC Cori Close has made three pilgrimages to Storrs to learn from the Master and the game will be played at Pauley Pavilion. This one could be interesting. The Bruins stayed with the Huskies in March due in part to some long-range shooting from the cheap seats by seniors Korver & Kornet who are both gone. This will also be a homecoming of sorts for Lou. Odds of UCLA win = 5/2

ND – You can always expect the Irish to be talented and well-coached. ND lost Allen to graduation and key reserves to transfer, but Lili Thompson from Stanford will take over the pg role and they bring in some talented freshmen. The big variable is Brianna Turner. Will she play this season, and if so, how healthy will she be? The game will be in CT. Odds of ND win = 3/1 (w healthy Turner), 6/1 (without)

OK – It was not that long ago that Sheri Coale appeared to be one of the great young coaches in WBB, and the Sooners were a perennial top-10 team with 3 trips to the FF. But OK was overtaken by both Baylor and TX in the Big 12 and while they are always competitive, they seem to have fallen back into the pack of 2nd tier top-25 teams. The game will be played at the Mohegan Sun. Odds of OK win = 30-1

TX – Karen Aston’s Longhorns have been nipping at Baylor’s heels in the Big 12 for several years. This may be the year that TX finally overtakes Baylor in the Big 12. They graduate Kelsey Lang in the middle but have SC transfer Jatarie White to step in. The senior backcourt of Atkins and McCarty may be as good as any in the country. Joyner Holmes is an absolute force in the paint and TX has an outstanding recruiting class. The game will be played in Austin on January 15. Odds of TX win = 5/2

SC – The last two national champions will face off in Feb in Columbia. Dawn has NPOY candidate Aja Wilson, returning starters Harris & Bianca Cuevas from the national championship game and a group of talented reserves and newbies that should be firing on all cylinders by Feb. Expect that Geno will also have his loaded team working like a symphony by Feb. This will be “must watch” TV. Odds of SC win = 2/1

Lou – Jeff Walz has been running something of a revolving door at Louisville, bringing in one talented recruiting class after another only to lose players to transfer. The talent is evident with players like Durr and Hines-Allen, but continuity appears to be lacking for the Cardinals. This game will be played in Feb in CT. Odds of Lou win = 20-1

With your odds, assuming each game is independent of the others, the Huskies have a 2.2% chance of getting through those 10 teams without losing.

That is over 45/1 that they will lose to at least one of these teams. Which side do you take for $1000?

 

[huskeynut]

I'll predict a loss at South Carolina. The game is at their place, and Wilson's a senior, so I expect her to be in beast mode.

Its a given Wilson is a major player, but who is her supporting cast? Cuevas-Moore, Cliney, Jennings or Harrigan? Outside of Cuevas-Moore, no real experience coming into this season. Homecourt advantage does not exist when playing UConn.

Beast mode or not, Wilson is only one player who is a legitimate threat. UConn has at least five major scoring threats.

 

[oldude]

Its a given Wilson is a major player, but who is her supporting cast? Cuevas-Moore, Cliney, Jennings or Harrigan? Outside of Cuevas-Moore, no real experience coming into this season. Homecourt advantage does not exist when playing UConn.

Beast mode or not, Wilson is only one player who is a legitimate threat. UConn has at least five major scoring threats.

You may have overlooked Harris, the starting pg for most of last season at SC who returns for her sophomore season.

 

[oldude]

With your odds, assuming each game is independent of the others, the Huskies have a 2.2% chance of getting through those 10 teams without losing.

View attachment 23468

That is over 45/1 that they will lose to at least one of these teams. Which side do you take for $1000?

If you assume that each game is "independent of the others," as you suggest, then there is no culmilative or contingent probability. Therefore, each game stands on its own.

As for betting, I make it a point of faith never to bet against the little Italian guy.

 

[j66kicker]

If you assume that each game is "independent of the others," as you suggest, then there is no culmilative or contingent probability. Therefore, each game stands on its own.

As for betting, I make it a point of faith never to bet against the little Italian guy.

I won't argue semantics, but with your individual game odds, it's 45/1 they get beat. I'll take UCONN on that bet because 1) I think their odds of beating all those teams are much better than 45:1, and 2) I win $45K for a $1000 bet instead of having to risk $45K to win $1000.

 

[SCGamecock]

You may have overlooked Harris, the starting pg for most of last season at SC who returns for her sophomore season.

Everybody overlooks Harris... she doesn't light you up for 30 points like Slocum and didn't have the ranking of Dangerfield but she's smart and she listens to Dawn, coachable and executes... most importantly, she doesn't turn the ball over... (she didn't have a single turnover on the road at UConn, a freshman on the road in the most hostile environment in WCBB).. she's quietly one of the best young point guards in the country.

 

[chrissaran]

The Huskies will be a lot better this year. Gabby won't be worn down having to guard much bigger players, and that will help her stay out of foul trouble. Azura will be the shot blocker they lacked last year. The depth will assure the team that there will be little drop off when a reserve player takes over. Can a team beat UConn this year? It's always possible, but less likely this year because most of the challengers have gotten weaker not stronger.

 

[UConnNick]

We really are a spoiled fan base!
Undefeated seasons even for the juggernaut that is UConn WCBB are rare things and they often die in the most unexpected circumstances - a St. Johns's here, a Villanova there, and even a rebuilding Stanford.

There is no doubt the talent on this years team is impressive with the transfers and the returning starters. But talent alone or even talent and really good coaching does not guarantee a good season let alone a great or undefeated one. Chemistry and some luck are required and chemistry is never guaranteed.

On the OP - I think UCLA is over-hyped - they haven't done anything yet much like OSU.

I think chemistry will be the X factor for this team. It appears there may not be enough PT to go around, considering the wealth of talent. Whether or not that becomes a problem remains to be seen. Bent and Irwin may not get even a second, third or fourth nod coming off the bench against tougher opposition than the usual array of AAC sacrificial lambs. It looks like there's some superior talent coming in as freshmen that may supplant both of them. They could ultimately view it as having been recruited over if their PT decreases compared with last season. You'll also have the freshmen all competing against each other for what's likely to be limited PT against the tougher teams.

 

[Charliebball]

We know Mississippi State can. I saw them do it 3 months ago with my very own eyes.

That's simply not happening again.................

 

[donalddoowop]

The Huskies will be a lot better this year. Gabby won't be worn down having to guard much bigger players, and that will help her stay out of foul trouble. Azura will be the shot blocker they lacked last year. The depth will assure the team that there will be little drop off when a reserve player takes over. Can a team beat UConn this year? It's always possible, but less likely this year because most of the challengers have gotten weaker not stronger.

Azura will do many good things on the court but I don't think she will be as good of a shot blocker as some of you think. Also, she has played twice against A. Wilson and it has been reported that Wilson outplayed her both times. However, I believe Azura will be an AA level player this season, imo.

 

[oldude]

Azura will do many good things on the court but I don't think she will be as good of a shot blocker as some of you think. Also, she has played twice against A. Wilson and it has been reported that Wilson outplayed her both times. However, I believe Azura will be an AA level player this season, imo.

1 on 1 in the low post, Wilson definitely has an advantage over Z, but I doubt that's the way it'll play out when UConn meets SC in Feb. Z will pull Wilson away from the basket on offense and she'll get help on D if Wilson tries to bury her in the paint.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Debating whether we might lose (singular) this season, yes we are a most blessed fan base. I'll bet Geno wants an early loss. He pretty much said he's sick of what the undefeated string means for the team. Thankfully, Geno doesn't play and I think this team, every one of them, newbies included, have different things in mind.

I can't disagree with you-----I've been warned---(kidding)--I have to disagree and agree with your comment --Geno wants an early loss--
I agree---if you mean ; if there is to be a loss , let it be early
I Disagree--You don't have know much about Geno to know--Geno hates to lose--yes he smiled in the loss to Miss St---do you really believe he loved that loss? Or maybe he was thinking--Wait until next year-hope we get you in the NCAA tourney.
I agree ---the team and the new guys may have a winning everything view

 

[Centerstream]

If MS State was on the schedule, I think the odds of UCONN losing (and by this I mean that they lost and were not 'beaten' in the FF) to them would be about 111 to 1. I would hope that Geno would play his top 6 or 7 players for the full 40 minutes regardless of the score. But that is just me, being petty.

 

[BroadwayVa]

1 on 1 in the low post, Wilson definitely has an advantage over Z, but I doubt that's the way it'll play out when UConn meets SC in Feb. Z will pull Wilson away from the basket on offense and she'll get help on D if Wilson tries to bury her in the paint.

There may be one other view of that match up--everything we know about Azura is her Duke style game--I tend to try to avoid dogmatic statements so I hedge my bets with Maybe Aja has an advantage over Z --in mobility or strength. Wilson is not without flaws--I doubt Geno is wasting Azura's time just concentrating on how to beat Wilson--but I feel on safe ground believing Geno has worked with and is working with Z to defend big, strong, mobile centers (including Wilson)--Z has what--2 inches or more on Aja? Sounds like a tiny amount---but often all you need is a tiny bit of something the other player lacks.
The certainty of your comment is Geno will offer, if needed, defensive help to Z against any post.
I need to see Azura jump against some bigs --again--in the one view I have of her jumping and making a jumper --her release is over 10 ft high--that is pretty difficult to defend.
Your point, lightly stated, is well taken---many think Z's rebounding ability will save the day--if what \you say with Aja is correct--Uconn goes back to the 2 smaller rebounders against Aja caliber players and USC has defenders of that size . Chess game coming.???


??

 

[BroadwayVa]

I think chemistry will be the X factor for this team. It appears there may not be enough PT to go around, considering the wealth of talent. Whether or not that becomes a problem remains to be seen. Bent and Irwin may not get even a second, third or fourth nod coming off the bench against tougher opposition than the usual array of AAC sacrificial lambs. It looks like there's some superior talent coming in as freshmen that may supplant both of them. They could ultimately view it as having been recruited over if their PT decreases compared with last season. You'll also have the freshmen all competing against each other for what's likely to be limited PT against the tougher teams.

Intelligent, thoughtful comment---with a tad of reality to it--
You are assuming, I would believe, that Molly or Kyla have not progressed in Defense or Offense since last fall. I have to believe they have. Also, they know the Geno system, the new guys don't , theyknow Geno's defense and practice mentality-the new guys must learn that. Now--assuming--Walker is all she is supposed to be and picks up a bit of defense and learns genos system--she may hit the floor early--I guess that goes for any of the new 4 that can contribute--
At this point there is no certainty of how it will all fall out--
Your assessment--is as accurate as anyone at this point.
The smart new kids will know --they are freshmen and watching is part of the learning--PT will come . The pinch is on Kyla and Molly--they are no longer freshmen. Geno stated years ago--that his emphasis is on freshmen, then sophs, Junior should know the system, Senior s--get no help they are to help with the younger guys. and it pretty well falls out that way.

 

[donalddoowop]

1 on 1 in the low post, Wilson definitely has an advantage over Z, but I doubt that's the way it'll play out when UConn meets SC in Feb. Z will pull Wilson away from the basket on offense and she'll get help on D if Wilson tries to bury her in the paint.

I agree.

 

[Huskee11]

Many interesting observations and great job by oldude introducing the topic and profiling the regular season opponents.

It is entirely possible they will drop one or two, especially since they have some tough away games, such as Texas and SC. I can live with that if they are peaking at tournament time. Having said that, I predict that they will run the table. The talent is overwhelming, the motivation compelling, and Geno will figure out how to make it all mesh.

While SC remains a tough obstacle, Davis and Gray going pro really moved that matchup further in UConn's favor. I don't think those two did much on offense against UConn last February but they were definitely tough defenders, and certainly they are more than capable offensively on most nights. UConn took Wilson out of the game in the second half, and that was without Stevens and Camara available.