Buzz Williams re: P65 breakaway coming soon

[upstater]

Maybe, but I'm assuming that you're including UConn as a "big guy" in the G5. Remember that a "big guy" in college sports is always framed in the football context (as opposed to the basketball context).

What compelling interest would a court have in any sport? None.

They don't care.

All they would care about is budget.

Doesn't matter how it is framed.

As for basketball, that's where the big break with the NCAA occurs. The NCAA is already outside the football structure, so when Buzz is talking about a break, he's clearly referring to a break with basketball.

 

[pj]

What you continue to miss is that all of these schools are members of the NCAA. The NCAA membership has voted, per the bylaws, to allow 5 conferences to make their own rules. The membership has also stated that ANY member school can choose to follow these rules as established by the 5 conferences.

Where is this cartel that you continue to refer to?

You are focusing on contracts. Things like not scheduling G5 schools, not inviting them to the playoffs, arranging for P5 schools to play P5 schools in bowls, and biased distribution of money can all be grounds for an antitrust lawsuit. If a G5 school's football team is effectively being boycotted when scheduling arrangements are made, that's an anti-competitive practice.

You also may have an assumption that schools should be free to make their own scheduling decisions. In a free market that would be the case, but antitrust law is specifically designed to prevent a free market from occurring.

 

[upstater]

What you continue to miss is that all of these schools are members of the NCAA. The NCAA membership has voted, per the bylaws, to allow 5 conferences to make their own rules. The membership has also stated that ANY member school can choose to follow these rules as established by the 5 conferences.

Where is this cartel that you continue to refer to?

Two answers to this.

1. All schools are not allowed to follow the rules of the P5. The G5 are prohibited unless allowed to by a big majority of mid and low majors. We simply haven't seen it play out yet, the objections have yet to occur, if they do.

2. The bylaws would become obsolete the second the P5 left the NCAA.

 

[pj]

Buzz believes a break is coming, that's why he was so eager to move from Big East to ACC.

But it's not clear that anyone else, similarly situated, agrees with him.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You are focusing on contracts. Things like not scheduling G5 schools, not inviting them to the playoffs, arranging for P5 schools to play P5 schools in bowls, and biased distribution of money can all be grounds for an antitrust lawsuit. If a G5 school's football team is effectively being boycotted when scheduling arrangements are made, that's an anti-competitive practice.

You also may have an assumption that schools should be free to make their own scheduling decisions. In a free market that would be the case, but antitrust law is specifically designed to prevent a free market from occurring.

That is not accurate. Anti-trust law is designed to maintain free and fair markets. It is not a free market if the largest competitors collude to exclude everyone else.

If the schools were all acting independently, there would be no anti-trust problem, but that is not the case. They have formed cartels within a larger cartel, and used their combined negotiating leverage to eliminate others from effectively competing.

 

[frankthetank]

What compelling interest would a court have in any sport? None.

They don't care.

All they would care about is budget.

Doesn't matter how it is framed.

As for basketball, that's where the big break with the NCAA occurs. The NCAA is already outside the football structure, so when Buzz is talking about a break, he's clearly referring to a break with basketball.

Understood, and once again, even by going by the overall budget threshold, there is still only a handful of G5 schools that meet such threshold. How many of those schools would rather roll the dice on getting a P5 invite in the future versus attempting a lawsuit that will effectively burn all bridges and, even bigger, could be a zero sum game?

Think of it this way: a lot of people talk about the upside of winning an antitrust case in this context, but what happens if you lose? You just rubber stamped the ability for the P5 to leave the NCAA completely with no legal or financial strings attached (meaning that the NCAA Tournament goes away, which then means the NCAA itself goes away and every single school, whether it's G5, FCS, non-football D1, D2 or D3, that's not in the P5 is completely rudderless). The risk of that type of adverse ruling looms large because you don't just lose a case and some money - you straight up lose the entire NCAA structure. It's easy to be a UConn fan from the sidelines and say, "I don't care - we have 'nothing' to lose." However, does UConn leadership really think there's "nothing to lose"? Does Cincinnati leadership think that way? BYU?

There's no such thing as a slam dunk legal case and certainly not here where there's a Supreme Court ruling directly on the subject of the business of college sports that favors the power schools over the NCAA.

 

[upstater]

Understood, and once again, even by going by the overall budget threshold, there is still only a handful of G5 schools that meet such threshold. How many of those schools would rather roll the dice on getting a P5 invite in the future versus attempting a lawsuit that will effectively burn all bridges and, even bigger, could be a zero sum game?

Think of it this way: a lot of people talk about the upside of winning an antitrust case in this context, but what happens if you lose? You just rubber stamped the ability for the P5 to leave the NCAA completely with no legal or financial strings attached (meaning that the NCAA Tournament goes away, which then means the NCAA itself goes away and every single school, whether it's G5, FCS, non-football D1, D2 or D3, that's not in the P5 is completely rudderless). The risk of that type of adverse ruling looms large because you don't just lose a case and some money - you straight up lose the entire NCAA structure. It's easy to be a UConn fan from the sidelines and say, "I don't care - we have 'nothing' to lose." However, does UConn leadership really think there's "nothing to lose"? Does Cincinnati leadership think that way? BYU?

There's no such thing as a slam dunk legal case and certainly not here where there's a Supreme Court ruling directly on the subject of the business of college sports that favors the power schools over the NCAA.

Burn bridges?

Seriously?

UConn has AT MOST a decade before the whole AD goes under in such circumstances.

I'd say less, actually.

In other words, UConn has all the incentive in the world to file such a lawsuit.

And I never said it was slam dunk. No one ever knows what the courts will do.

 

[Broman]

If the P5 conferences break away, I think they have to add BYU, Cincy and Uconn for football

1) You can't have a 5 Conference league with one independent. Thus either ND joins the BIG or the ACC and needs a partner. UConn makes way too much sense, as BYU is out of the footprint both academically and geographically while UC overlaps with OSU.

2) It would be strange to have 2 16 team leagues, 1 14 team league, 1 12 team league, and 1 10 team league...the Big 12 needs 12 teams, and BYU and Cincy make too much sense geographically compared to anyone else.

3) I'd be shocked if the 5 conferences excluded everyone else in basketball. I'd simply think they'd make a stipend and non-stipend division, with the P5 joined by the Big East, the MWC the A-10, and a new best of the rest midwest basketball conference (Wichita State, etc.) (I see the American getting blown up).

So 5 conferences for football with 68 teams, 9 conferences for basketball with ~100 teams (32 team tournament...maybe you add more teams to keep 64 a reasonable option, but cmon...selection sunday with more than 50% going to the tournament just makes the regular season pointless...it reminds me of the onion:

 

[noeynox]

Frank if i offered you the chance to die by 100,000 painful paper cuts, or to shoot you once in the head and those were your only two choices which would you choose? If you chose option one you're just hoping I get tired of cutting you and you miraculously lived. Those are the options you're offering. You yourself have posted that the P5 isn't expanding because they don't want to dilute their pie shares further, because no outside the P5 is going to increase revenues for expansion to occur.

I don't have the slightest clue how a lawsuit ends up, but if facing certain death, I'd rather take my biggest haymaker and hope for the best than curl up in the fetal position and hope for the best.

 

[frankthetank]

Burn bridges?

Seriously?

UConn has AT MOST a decade before the whole AD goes under in such circumstances.

I'd say less, actually.

In other words, UConn has all the incentive in the world to file such a lawsuit.

And I never said it was slam dunk. No one ever knows what the courts will do.

Whether the UConn football program can survive in a G5 world without being a money drain is a legit question.

However, the UConn athletic department sans football can certainly survive... as long as the NCAA Tournament exists.

Now, let me be very clear - I'm not saying that it would be wise for UConn AT ALL to drop football as it has to keep its football chips on the table as one of the few schools that have a legit argument for a P5 invite. UConn has no choice there for the next several years. However, in an Armageddon situation, UConn can certainly still have a viable basketball-focused athletic department (a la Georgetown or Marquette) that makes money as long as the NCAA Tournament is there.

What any lawsuit against the P5 puts at risk more than anything is the existence of the NCAA Tournament. The football battle is over - the P5 already have the revenue structure that they want/need and they're going to get the autonomy for governance matters over that sport. The place where the P5 can make the most revenue gains is by actually taking over the basketball postseason just as it already controls the football postseason. The rest of the NCAA knows this, which is why it continues to cede control over football matters as a quid pro quo for keeping the basketball structure intact.

 

[CL82]

As a rule, the courts frown upon similiarly situated individuals or entities being treated differently. Connecticut is more similiar to the major P5 schools than it is to the G5 schools. It ought to have the same opportunities. That is obviously a simplification but it is the core issue. As noted above, right now everyone is playing nice in the hopes that this inequity will correct itself. When that is no longer a likelihood, or when the TV money differential is going cause Connecticut to scale back it's athletic programs, then waiting will no longer be an option. I am hopeful, but no where near certain, that Connecticut is in a P5 but the time the Big East exit money dries up. Based upon it's athletic and academic academic success, brand awareness and potential market it ought to be. We will see whether institutions like Boston College can prevent that to prevent competition (as DeFillipo so imprudently memorialized.)

 

[CL82]

Whether the UConn football program can survive in a G5 world without being a money drain is a legit question.

However, the UConn athletic department sans football can certainly survive... as long as the NCAA Tournament exists.

Now, let me be very clear - I'm not saying that it would be wise for UConn AT ALL to drop football as it has to keep its football chips on the table as one of the few schools that have a legit argument for a P5 invite. UConn has no choice there for the next several years. However, in an Armageddon situation, UConn can certainly still have a viable basketball-focused athletic department (a la Georgetown or Marquette) that makes money as long as the NCAA Tournament is there.

What any lawsuit against the P5 puts at risk more than anything is the existence of the NCAA Tournament. The football battle is over - the P5 already have the revenue structure that they want/need and they're going to get the autonomy for governance matters over that sport. The place where the P5 can make the most revenue gains is by actually taking over the basketball postseason just as it already controls the football postseason. The rest of the NCAA knows this, which is why it continues to cede control over football matters as a quid pro quo for keeping the basketball structure intact.

Frank, if the P5 already has football money and control and there is more money to be had by creating its own March basketball tournament, why, in your view, hasn't it done just that? Just out of its disinterested generosity? Or do you think, perhaps that risk of making that money grab outweighs its considerable benefits?

 

[upstater]

Whether the UConn football program can survive in a G5 world without being a money drain is a legit question.

However, the UConn athletic department sans football can certainly survive... as long as the NCAA Tournament exists.

Now, let me be very clear - I'm not saying that it would be wise for UConn AT ALL to drop football as it has to keep its football chips on the table as one of the few schools that have a legit argument for a P5 invite. UConn has no choice there for the next several years. However, in an Armageddon situation, UConn can certainly still have a viable basketball-focused athletic department (a la Georgetown or Marquette) that makes money as long as the NCAA Tournament is there.

What any lawsuit against the P5 puts at risk more than anything is the existence of the NCAA Tournament. The football battle is over - the P5 already have the revenue structure that they want/need and they're going to get the autonomy for governance matters over that sport. The place where the P5 can make the most revenue gains is by actually taking over the basketball postseason just as it already controls the football postseason. The rest of the NCAA knows this, which is why it continues to cede control over football matters as a quid pro quo for keeping the basketball structure intact.

Buzz Williams is referring to a P5 split. That's the premise here.

 

[UConnJim]

What is most interesting about football vs basketball is that the College Football Playoff will generate less revenues than the NCAA men's basketball tournament. There are two major differences, though. In football, the revenues are are mostly kept by the P5. In basketball, the NCAA takes in the tournament funds, uses the basketball revenues to fund its operations, and distributes the remaining funds in a more egalitarian way to the various conferences and schools, although a conference/school makes more money for winning tournament games.

Here are the NCAA numbers from 2012/2013 school year:

Total revenues: $912.8 mill.

Revenues from mens' NCAA basketball tournament: $769 mill.

Total payouts to conferences and schools: $527.3 mill.


The rest of the money was used by the NCAA to cover association wide programming ($122.2 mill.), management/administration costs ($97.4 mill.), running Division 1 championships in all sports ($41.8 million), allocation to Div. 2 schools ($35.6 mill.), allocation to Div. 3 schools ($27.5 mill.) and other stuff.

Of course it makes sense that the NCAA men's basketball tournament has higher revenues that the College Football Playoff as there are 3 football games, or about 10 to 12 hours of live programming vs 67 basketball games or ~140 hours of live programming. The viewership of the basketball final was 21.2 million last year and was 25.6 million for the BCS Championship, which is not too different.

In my opinion, football can break away from the NCAA because in reality it already has been separate (especially from a revenue standpoint) and the impact is only on a handful of schools. Basketball is another matter entirely as a break away would impact over 1000 colleges and every level of college sport in the US. And, the P5 would still need to replicate the NCAA for administration, conducting championships, developing rules,...

Why would Buzz Williams say this? Pretty simple, he is trying to make VT more attractive and relevant to high school basketball players in Virginia. Think about this. There are 14 Division 1 men's basketball schools in Virginia and some are up and comers that are not in the P5 like: George Mason, Old Dominion, and VCU. In addition, he is trying to recruit against out of state non-P5 schools like Georgetown, UConn, ... In the Virginia high school class of 2015, Williams lost out on 2 of the top 4 recruits to non-P5 schools (Georgetown and VCU) and almost lost the top recruit to UConn.

 

[UConnJim]

The CBS/Turner deal for the NCAA men's basketball tournament runs through 2024, so I wouldn't expect a breakaway in the near future. The P5 autonomy movement coincided with the end of the BCS contract and the start of the College Football Playoff. Thus, I don't think anyone is going to blow up NCAA basketball in the near term given that there are many more ramifications to breaking away in basketball than there are for breaking away in football.

 

[Fishy]

Three consistent themes here....

1) The government will eventually step in. They won't.

2) The courts will eventually step in. They won't.

3) Wake Forest will soon be symbolically smothered. They won't.

The Lone Ranger ain't coming. I'm not sure how we get out of this mess and it doesn't help that we can see the botched and the bungled like BC or Pitt or Syracuse in a position to make any exit that much harder...but it is what it is.

 

[bobbyinaz]

I don't think the P5 breakaway because my guess is they have no interest in running volleyball and field hockey and swimming championships. They would prefer to have someone else run these events like they do with the football playoffs. The NCAA runs all of the non-football championships the football playoffs are run by Bill Hancock & his cast of cronies that are leftover from the BCS.

I do believe that they will attempt to strong arm an increase in revenues from the hoops tournament by threatening to create something similar to the football playoff that is not run by the NCAA. This is where the battle will get ugly. The majority of NCAA schools allowed the P5 autonomy because they didn't want the golden goose hoops tourney to be touched. If/when the P5 do come back for a bigger piece of the pie that will likely be the time that the NCAA member schools call their bluff

 

[Dooley]

A lawsuit Hail Mary should ABSOLUTELY be on the table for UCONN...in 10+ years. And don't sue for just a few million. I'd want that lawsuit to be for hundreds of millions of dollars. Enough to fund our athletic department for several decades money, since we will have essentially burned every bridge in the P5.

There is no school and complete athletic department that is more negatively impacted being on the outside of the P5 than UCONN. There is no debate about that.

 

[CL82]

Three consistent themes here....

1) The government will eventually step in. They won't.

2) The courts will eventually step in. They won't.

3) Wake Forest will soon be symbolically smothered. They won't.

The Lone Ranger ain't coming. I'm not sure how we get out of this mess and it doesn't help that we can see the botched and the bungled like BC or Pitt or Syracuse in a position to make any exit that much harder...but it is what it is.

Fishy's school Christmas party outfit.

(Coincidently, it is also the reason why only his wife is allowed to pick up the kids now.)

 

[whaler11]

If the G5 wins their antitrust case as handily as the USFL -I'd propose that UConn, Cinci and USF each get $1.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If the G5 wins their antitrust case as handily as the USFL -I'd propose that UConn, Cinci and USF each get $1.

You have to go back 30 years to find the last time a major sports league or organization successfully defended a real antitrust case. Nice work.

 

[whaler11]

You have to go back 30 years to find the last time a major sports league or organization successfully defended a real antitrust case. Nice work.

I wasn't commenting on the validity of an anti-trust case - I don't pretend to be a lawyer. It's called a joke.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Three consistent themes here....

1) The government will eventually step in. They won't.

2) The courts will eventually step in. They won't.

3) Wake Forest will soon be symbolically smothered. They won't.

The Lone Ranger ain't coming. I'm not sure how we get out of this mess and it doesn't help that we can see the botched and the bungled like BC or Pitt or Syracuse in a position to make any exit that much harder...but it is what it is.

I agree on 1 and 3. The track record of antitrust lawsuits against sports leagues is pretty good. Ed O'Bannon says hello.

 

[chitown76]

UConn will have a home

 

[billybud]

I think that we only really talking about football as a complete breakaway...

At FSU...

For men..only football, baseball, and basketball is on a conference schedule.

Swimming and Diving is not a conference schedule...go to invitationals and national championships

Cross Country...no conference schedule ...invitationals, etc

Golf....ditto to above

Tennis....ditto

Track & Field...ditto