Butler Scouting Report

[TheChamps990411]

Handicap tag team match.

We make jokes but think about it for a minute. Imagine you have a solid big man who gives you lets say 15ppg 8rbs 3blks. Hes 6`10 240lbs and plays 30 mpg. No real depth behind him but you dont really need it because this guys a gamer. Sounds great right? Yeah now here comes Uconn as your next opponent on your attempt to go to the F4 and youre the coach that has to plan for 40 or more nonstop minutes of either a 6`9 250lb low post scoring machine, who can run the floor rebound and defend or a 7`2 265lb rim protecter who can run the floor, rebound and block shots. Your guy has to guard these guys or try to score against them every minute hes on the floor and he absolutely cannot get into foul trouble. This isnt even fair.

 

[jibsey]

Should be a good opportunity to get Karaban some shots up on offense.

He really hasn’t had the shots opportunity lately but the kid can flat out shoot. He’s not as fast as Hawkins on getting free for the pick and pop, and of course opposing defenses know he’s dangerous out there.

 

[MuchoDogYears]

They have one legit big. Sanogo and Clingan on rotation is just brutal. Thats even without foul trouble for an opposing big.

Sanogo and Clingan rotation is brutal for an opposing center with both being talented and constantly bringing fresh legs off the bench.

But it’s got to be a nightmare for the opposing center because they both bring different size, athleticism, skill sets, and BB strengths. How do you adjust when you have to constantly change your defensive and offensive game depending on whether Clingan or Sanogo is in the game?

 

[MTBingNinja]

5 players averaging over 30 minutes jumped out to me.

Let’s wear them down!

 

[Sibeerian]

We make jokes but think about it for a minute. Imagine you have a solid big man who gives you lets say 15ppg 8rbs 3blks. Hes 6`10 240lbs and plays 30 mpg. No real depth behind him but you dont really need it because this guys a gamer. Sounds great right? Yeah now here comes Uconn as your next opponent on your attempt to go to the F4 and youre the coach that has to plan for 40 or more nonstop minutes of either a 6`9 250lb low post scoring machine, who can run the floor rebound and defend or a 7`2 265lb rim protecter who can run the floor, rebound and block shots. Your guy has to guard these guys or try to score against them every minute hes on the floor and he absolutely cannot get into foul trouble. This isnt even fair.

This would be the main storyline for a lot of teams. But you also have a gifted freshman who can score from anywhere, an NBA bound sharpshooter, and a freakish human highlight machine out there at the same time. You aren't picking your poison, you are getting a poison cocktail, IV and enema simultaneously.

 

[husky429]

He really hasn’t had the shots opportunity lately but the kid can flat out shoot. He’s not as fast as Hawkins on getting free for the pick and pop, and of course opposing defenses know he’s dangerous out there.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm stoked he hit the freshman wall so early. That usually happens when teams start game planning for a player. Karaban's shooting and passing have made him a focus of other team's scout--hence the drop off in production when they adjuated and started playing him physical and tight. Most freshman don't hit that wall until mid-January.

Now he's got the next two months to adjust to the adjustment and come out blazing in March. The adjustment to the adjustment is what great players, coaches and teams do.

 

[auror]

Just an aside, but I was looking at some of Butler's frontcourt lineup stats (color coded dark red to dark green) and then I switched it to UConn and I absolutely cackled out loud at how dark green every single lineup is.

 

[Husky25]

I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm stoked he hit the freshman wall so early. That usually happens when teams start game planning for a player. Karaban's shooting and passing have made him a focus of other team's scout--hence the drop off in production when they adjuated and started playing him physical and tight. Most freshman don't hit that wall until mid-January.

Now he's got the next two months to adjust to the adjustment and come out blazing in March. The adjustment to the adjustment is what great players, coaches and teams do.

Who? Karaban?

Just my observation, but I don't think he has hit any sort of wall yet. His play was limited at Florida due to foul trouble, but played 37 minutes vs OSU, and scored 19 points vs. LIU. Granted, Algonquin would have given LIU a game.

 

[donyell34]

Let's call it a mini-wall, and he might hit a few more but he’s been solid and improving every game. Very important and special player and it happened quickly.

 

[ihatepants]

On the flip side, here's the scouting report on UConn from the ButlerHoops board.

UConn comes into the game undefeated and have absolutely obliterated everyone they’ve played. OAnd I mean it hasn’t even been close. 5 of their 11 opponents were Top-60 teams and the closest win was by 10 points against OKST. Out of 440 minutes played, they’ve only trailed by something like 12 minutes total and it was all within the first 10 minutes of the game.

Win Margin:
Oregon-24
Alabama- 15
ISU- 18
OKST- 10
Florida- 21

That being said they’ve only had 1 true road game at Florida but they were unphased. However it is also important to note they won the PK invitational on a neutral floor by an average margin of 19 points.

The key will be shutting down Sanogo/Clingan. UConn’s centers account for 34% of their point production and 47% of their offensive rebounds. Having Thomas back will be so important because it will give us depth so Manny can be aggressive. That said, since UConn is so good on the offensive glass I think Manny should avoid over-helping on drives because our weak side rotation won’t be able to keep Sanogo off the glass if so.

The other problem will be Hawkins. He’s a big SG/SF who averages 8 3PAs a game and connects on 42% of them. He is insanely good at the spot up 3 and also running off screens. He also knows how to cut and relocate once it gets into the post. The team as a whole shoots 25 3PAs/gm and pretty much have the inside out game down to a T. If we overhelp on Sanogo, he kicks it out for a 3. If we run the guards off the 3pt line, Sanogo generally eats the defender alive. Game plan should be to win your individual matchup, glue yourself to Hawkins, don’t overhelp, and we actually have a shot. We finally have the players to match up with UConn, it’s just a matter of who’s available. I think if this game was played in 3 weeks with more practices, it would be a 50/50 chance to win at home. I hope our dudes are ready.

 

[auror]

What do the on/off splits say about Butler?

1. The offense craters when Eric Hunter, Chuck Harris, or Manny Bates is out. This is partially because backup Myles Tate played horrendously, but he's been out with an illness now anyways, so they just don't have much depth at guard. With Ali out, they have 4 decent guards that had to play the 1-3 (with Lukosius at the 4) and not much else. They don't have a true point, so when either of these creators is out, the team is just lacking creation. And Bates is their only interior scorer.
2. The defense suffers when Jayden Taylor is out. There's some shooting aberrations in here, but even luck adjusted they're 20 points per 100 pos worse on D with him out. Hunter and Bates have the big defensive reputations (and Bates does help the interior D), but Taylor has been indispensable on D so far.
3. Related to #2, Lukosius is a weak link on D. He has more defensive responsibility when Taylor is out and Pierce is in and it has not gone well. The other team just shoots a lot higher % at the rim and is way less disrupted without Taylor.

If we get them into foul trouble, which we have gotten most opponents, it's pretty much over, even if Ali Ali plays. Especially their guards. Newton needs to be in herky jerky attack mode. And Sanogo/Clingan need to just keep doing what they do. Butler is very good about not fouling (5th fewest foul rate), but with Clingan your only options are foul or he gets every rebound and dunks every possession, so there's not much choice.

 

[runner11]

Who? Karaban?

Just my observation, but I don't think he has hit any sort of wall yet. His play was limited at Florida due to foul trouble, but played 37 minutes vs OSU, and scored 19 points vs. LIU. Granted, Algonquin would have given LIU a game.

Agreed, I thought I misread the post at first because its a head-shaker. 2 meh games is more indicative of 2 meh games.

Great post by the OP once again.

2 of their injured players seem like quality rotation players, Ali Ali especially received some acclaim during the last portal. So it seems Matta has Butler ahead of schedule, even in the face of a limited roster.

 

[husky429]

Who? Karaban?

Just my observation, but I don't think he has hit any sort of wall yet. His play was limited at Florida due to foul trouble, but played 37 minutes vs OSU, and scored 19 points vs. LIU. Granted, Algonquin would have given LIU a game.

He looked overmatched and out of place vs OSU and Florida. He'll work through it though.

 

[mauconnfan]

Hey Adrien I hope the Huskies are as ready for conference play as you seem to be. I mean all of these scouting reports are tremendous but it just seems you’ve turned it up a notch for our first conference foe.

Thank you as usual!!!!

 

[TheChamps990411]

This would be the main storyline for a lot of teams. But you also have a gifted freshman who can score from anywhere, an NBA bound sharpshooter, and a freakish human highlight machine out there at the same time. You aren't picking your poison, you are getting a poison cocktail, IV and enema simultaneously.

Yeah i know but i wanted to keep the nightmare scenario contained to just the center position.

 

[TheChamps990411]

Sanogo and Clingan rotation is brutal for an opposing center with both being talented and constantly bringing fresh legs off the bench.

But it’s got to be a nightmare for the opposing center because they both bring different size, athleticism, skill sets, and BB strengths. How do you adjust when you have to constantly change your defensive and offensive game depending on whether Clingan or Sanogo is in the game?

Now imagine if Samson comes back and hes any type of player?

 

[REB1094]

This is the first game this year I won't be able to watch

If we play our game, we run them out of the gym. If we play their game, they have a chance.

Our perimeter defenders have to play strong. They've had games where they are completely lockdown, and have had games where they let opposing guards get to the hoop at will. I have yet to see both Sanogo and Clingan have bad games simultaneously, so Manny Bates will have his hands full. He will definitely get worn out, and likely early.

 

[Scrutineer]

Butler analysis:
"We finally have the players to match up with UConn, it’s just a matter of who’s available. I think if this game was played in 3 weeks with more practices, it would be a 50/50 chance to win at home."
Looks like we won't have a chance after the next few weeks..........

 

[Rocktheworld]

“perimetrically challenged” lmaooooooo

 

[Rocktheworld]

I definitely think our depth is a huge factor here. They play 6 players for 15+ mpg. Meanwhile, we have 9 players who play as much, including Clingan and Joey off the bench. When they are in will surely be our time to make runs.

They have a few good shooters but I think our defense, namely AJ, should keep them in check. I hope Karaban is up for the task; if he does nothing but 3 and D I would be very happy.

 

[husky429]

I definitely think our depth is a huge factor here. They play 6 players for 15+ mpg. Meanwhile, we have 9 players who play as much, including Clingan and Joey off the bench. When they are in will surely be our time to make runs.

They have a few good shooters but I think our defense, namely AJ, should keep them in check. I hope Karaban is up for the task; if he does nothing but 3 and D I would be very happy.

Karaban is going to torch Lukosius like I torch the 50 year olds at the rec. All 3 levels. That kid is an abysmal defender.

 

[Gampel91]

This is a stat that just defies logic - since the 2010-2011 season, UConn has more wins in Final Four games (4 out of 4) than conference openers (2 out of 12). In fact, UConn has lost the last 6 conference openers in a row, 9 of the last 10, and 15 of the last 18. Time to flip that narrative.

 

[MTBingNinja]

This is a stat that just defies logic - since the 2010-2011 season, UConn has more wins in Final Four games (4 out of 4) than conference openers (2 out of 12). In fact, UConn has lost the last 6 conference openers in a row, 9 of the last 10, and 15 of the last 18. Time to flip that narrative.

 

[Vuce]

 

[auror]

As suspected. They're going to be conservative with Thomas' minutes. We'll see how much Ali plays, but he's not starting. Could be like when we got Jackson back and he came off bench and played 20 minutes.