Bubble weakness

[nelsonmuntz]

This is a really weak bubble this year. Lunardi's last 8 are Texas, Okie STate, BYU, Temple, LSU, Boise State, Ole Miss and Indiana. BYU and Temple are locks IMO, but the rest of that group is gruesome.

UConn would have basically been a lock for an at-large if it had 21 wins by now. All UConn needed were a couple of late shots to rim out instead of getting drained, and they would be getting ready for the dance. If any 1 loss had gone the other way, UConn would probably need just 1 more win.

Anyone who says the regular season doesn't matter in college basketball has never been the fan of a bubble team.

Now UConn has to win out.

 

[whaler11]

Go back to 64.

 

[partyATkemba]

Go back to 64.

I love the Tuesday play-in games from a degenerate perspective.

 

[whaler11]

I love the Tuesday play-in games from a degenerate perspective.

I usually support more basketbsll but it's killed the bubble watch.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Adding some color to why those last 6 are so bad.

3 of Lunardi's last 8 have RPI's worse than 50
Texas is 3-12 against Top 50.
LSU has FIVE losses outside top 100.
15 of Indiana's 20 wins are at home, and Indiana has a losing record vs. the Top 100.
Oklahoma State is a train wreck in everything but RPI. 3-8 on the road, 3 losses outside Top 100, losing conference record, and only 4 games over .500.
Ole Miss has 4 losses outside Top 100 and is only 9-8 vs. Top 100.

The just missing the cut teams like Old Dominion, Miami and UCLA would not even be in the conversation in a year like last year.

Lunardi has Tulsa out right now, although compared to teams like LSU, Ole Miss and Okie State, I don't get Lunardi's logic.

 

[whaler11]

Well no one knows what the D2 loss means.

 

[8893]

It is what it is. Our situation hasn't changed since the regular season ended. Of course I'd rather have a better record and have the NCCAs locked by now, but in a way, I kind of like the clarity of our predicament better than wondering which of the dozens of scenarios will unfold the right or wrong way. The only thing we have to worry about now is us winning, period. No backdoor, no nothing. Win or go home. May be just the kind of simplicity and focus this team needed.

 

[Matrim55]

UConn would have basically been a lock for an at-large if it had 21 wins by now. All UConn needed were a couple of late shots to rim out instead of getting drained, and they would be getting ready for the dance.

Free throws, man. Texas, Yale, Temple, Houston.

 

[tzznandrew]

Adding some color to why those last 6 are so bad.

3 of Lunardi's last 8 have RPI's worse than 50
Texas is 3-12 against Top 50.
LSU has FIVE losses outside top 100.
15 of Indiana's 20 wins are at home, and Indiana has a losing record vs. the Top 100.
Oklahoma State is a train wreck in everything but RPI. 3-8 on the road, 3 losses outside Top 100, losing conference record, and only 4 games over .500.
Ole Miss has 4 losses outside Top 100 and is only 9-8 vs. Top 100.

The just missing the cut teams like Old Dominion, Miami and UCLA would not even be in the conversation in a year like last year.

Lunardi has Tulsa out right now, although compared to teams like LSU, Ole Miss and Okie State, I don't get Lunardi's logic.

Lunardi is crazy. There's just no way a team like LSU gets in, so far as I can tell. The SEC is a train-wreck.

 

[whaler11]

Lunardi may be annoying as hell but usually has the field almost right. Not that the first 62 are hard.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Lunardi may be annoying as hell but usually has the field almost right. Not that the first 62 are hard.

Yeah, I tend to agree but it is pretty fun how people give him props for picking the whole field when in reality it's like three teams he actually has to pick.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yeah, I tend to agree but it is pretty fun how people give him props for picking the whole field when in reality it's like three teams he actually has to pick.

Pretty much anyone who is paying attention can get all but 1 or 2 right. More amazing is that Palm has a job, because he is rarely has less than 2 wrong.

I think LSU sucks, but I am having trouble picking anyone but Tulsa over them from among the teams Lunardi has outside the field.

One of the things Lunardi is a master of is keeping big conference teams on the bubble that have no chance of making it. Miami and A&M are examples of this. I would not be shocked to see Lunardi do a final morning switcheroo of Tulsa for LSU. He does this with at least 1 team every Selection Sunday, without any explanation of why.

 

[tzznandrew]

Pretty much anyone who is paying attention can get all but 1 or 2 right. More amazing is that Palm has a job, because he is rarely has less than 2 wrong.

I think LSU sucks, but I am having trouble picking anyone but Tulsa over them from among the teams Lunardi has outside the field.

One of the things Lunardi is a master of is keeping big conference teams on the bubble that have no chance of making it. Miami and A&M are examples of this. I would not be shocked to see Lunardi do a final morning switcheroo of Tulsa for LSU. He does this with at least 1 team every Selection Sunday, without any explanation of why.

I think you're largely right: the bubble is so weak that Tulsa doesn't look that bad in comparison.

I don't see how Tulsa gets in, though, without winning the whole tournament. They have a poor NCSOS, now Top 25 wins, 2 Top 50 wins, only 5 of their wins are Top 100, and they have a loss to a DII school.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

When in doubt in picking tournament teams, go with RPI. That seems to be the Committee's tiebreaker.

 

[Edward Sargent]

Adding some color to why those last 6 are so bad.

3 of Lunardi's last 8 have RPI's worse than 50
Texas is 3-12 against Top 50.
LSU has FIVE losses outside top 100.
15 of Indiana's 20 wins are at home, and Indiana has a losing record vs. the Top 100.
Oklahoma State is a train wreck in everything but RPI. 3-8 on the road, 3 losses outside Top 100, losing conference record, and only 4 games over .500.
Ole Miss has 4 losses outside Top 100 and is only 9-8 vs. Top 100.

The just missing the cut teams like Old Dominion, Miami and UCLA would not even be in the conversation in a year like last year.

Lunardi has Tulsa out right now, although compared to teams like LSU, Ole Miss and Okie State, I don't get Lunardi's logic.

AAC is his logic

 

[aceboon]

I know after the last 2 regular season losses(maybe a win against Memphis would have kept them alive?) comparing other bubble team resumes to ours is irrelevant, but Rob Dauster just brought up Georgia. They have 0 top 50 RPI wins yet most bracket projections have them in, that's crazy.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...rdue-and-davidson-safe-despite-todays-losses/

• Georgia: Someone is going to have to explain to me why Georgia is comfortably in the tournament in most bracket projections, because I just don’t see it. As of today, the Bulldogs have zero top 50 wins. ZERO. They’re 11-9 against the top 100, but their best win is over an Ole Miss team that might not end up going to the NCAA tournament. They also have two sub-100 losses. So, again, why is this team considered comfortably in?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Good point on Georgia. I can't remember the last Top 40 RPI team from a major that didn't get a bid, but I also can't remember the last time a major got an at-large without a top 50 win.

 

[mauconnfan]

I know after the last 2 regular season losses(maybe a win against Memphis would have kept them alive?) comparing other bubble team resumes to ours is irrelevant, but Rob Dauster just brought up Georgia. They have 0 top 50 RPI wins yet most bracket projections have them in, that's crazy.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...rdue-and-davidson-safe-despite-todays-losses/

• Georgia: Someone is going to have to explain to me why Georgia is comfortably in the tournament in most bracket projections, because I just don’t see it. As of today, the Bulldogs have zero top 50 wins. ZERO. They’re 11-9 against the top 100, but their best win is over an Ole Miss team that might not end up going to the NCAA tournament. They also have two sub-100 losses. So, again, why is this team considered comfortably in?

Thanks ace, been thinking the same thing all weekend. They are a very inconsistent team who proved they can't beat a real good team ever!

 

[whaler11]

A subplot only interesting to some: Does Texas Southern get sent to Dayton?

More obviously will Robert Morris be aligned with Kentucky?

 

[storrsroars]

A subplot only interesting to some: Does Texas Southern get sent to Dayton?

More obviously will Robert Morris be aligned with Kentucky?

RMU has no shot vs UK this year, but if they get above a 16 seed, I think there are at least a couple 2/3 seeds who could be sweating. Toole is an excellent coach.

 

[Jax Husky]

Lunardi is crazy. There's just no way a team like LSU gets in, so far as I can tell. The SEC is a train-wreck.

LSUs losses are atrocious, but they have 12 top 100 wins and road wins at WVU and Arkansas. They just don't show up against lesser teams.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Tulsa has as many truly quality wins as LSU, a better record and better RPI. Tulsa's problem is 13 wins against 200+ rpi opponents. The bottom of the AAC has to get better or it will keep costing the league bids. I get that ECU, USF, UCF and Houston may never be top 100 programs, but the can't completely suck if the AAC wants to be more than a 2-3 bid league.

 

[MattMang23]

If the tournament were 16 teams, we'd all complain about teams 14-16.

If it were 32, we'd complain about 30-32.

When it was 64, we all whined about 62-64.

Now that it's 68 everyone actually gives a rat's about teams 66-68.

It's like I told Seth Greenberg right to his face at the hall of fame tipoff a couple years ago (year after he was fired from VT and all he did every year was complain about how his team was hosed): wanna know how to make the committee pick your team? Win more. That's it. If you're a team that's being considered for the tourney at any spot between like 64-68, don't gripe if you're not selected. It's your own fault. Play better teams, win those games. That's the answer.

If we don't win today and don't make the field, I won't be complaining. But we don't have to worry about that because we're gonna kick some today and punch our ticket.

 

[MattMang23]

Tulsa has as many truly quality wins as LSU, a better record and better RPI. Tulsa's problem is 13 wins against 200+ rpi opponents. The bottom of the AAC has to get better or it will keep costing the league bids. I get that ECU, USF, UCF and Houston may never be top 100 programs, but the can't completely suck if the AAC wants to be more than a 2-3 bid league.

They should schedule better. Right now they play a sh!tty schedule and still wind up with 10-16 wins and miss the tourney. The conference should force them to schedule better which would result in them winning 8-14 games but raise the conference profile.

If you're not winning against crappy competition, you might as well schedule better and still not win. At least you'll help out your conference mates.

 

[drkowal90]

I think the play in game should be on the morning of the Thursday/Friday. Then they play in the late evening game that night.

Totally unfair, but would make for great drama.

 

[Jax Husky]

Tulsa has as many truly quality wins as LSU, a better record and better RPI. Tulsa's problem is 13 wins against 200+ rpi opponents. The bottom of the AAC has to get better or it will keep costing the league bids. I get that ECU, USF, UCF and Houston may never be top 100 programs, but the can't completely suck if the AAC wants to be more than a 2-3 bid league.

No, they dont. Tulsa is 5-8 vs the top 100 rpi. LSU is 12-5 vs the Top 100. Tulsa's OOC crushed them.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

No, they dont. Tulsa is 5-8 vs the top 100 rpi. LSU is 12-5 vs the Top 100. Tulsa's OOC crushed them.

You are just wrong. LSU has two wins over teams firmly in the dance: West Virginia and Arkansas. Georgia is a bubble team (see below), as is Ole Miss. LSU's other Top 100 wins:

Tennessee 96
Alabama 84
Florida 70 x2
Sam Houston State 82
UMass 81

Alabama and UMass are the only ones that are locks for the NIT. The committee gets into that level of detail. Also, LSU lost to Old Dominion, and if any bubble team off the bubble is a dark horse to steal a bid, it is ODU.

Georgia has THREE wins over top 69 opponents, beating Ole Miss twice and A&M. Their RPI is driven by 3 Top 10 opponents (Kentucky x2 and Gonzaga) and only 5 games against teams outside the top 200. Smart scheduling, but I wouldn't consider them a lock, and I wouldn't want to be the team leaning on my win over Georgia to sway the committee this weekend.

Tulsa's non-conference only has 3 opponents outside the Top 200.

 

[whaler11]

A subplot only interesting to some: Does Texas Southern get sent to Dayton?

More obviously will Robert Morris be aligned with Kentucky?

Literally no one will read this. If you want evidence the bracket is rigged... North Florida has to play in from Dayton and Texas Southern got a 15.

That is an absolute disgrace to basketball.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You are just wrong. LSU has two wins over teams firmly in the dance: West Virginia and Arkansas. Georgia is a bubble team (see below), as is Ole Miss. LSU's other Top 100 wins:

Tennessee 96
Alabama 84
Florida 70 x2
Sam Houston State 82
UMass 81

Alabama and UMass are the only ones that are locks for the NIT. The committee gets into that level of detail. Also, LSU lost to Old Dominion, and if any bubble team off the bubble is a dark horse to steal a bid, it is ODU.

Georgia has THREE wins over top 69 opponents, beating Ole Miss twice and A&M. Their RPI is driven by 3 Top 10 opponents (Kentucky x2 and Gonzaga) and only 5 games against teams outside the top 200. Smart scheduling, but I wouldn't consider them a lock, and I wouldn't want to be the team leaning on my win over Georgia to sway the committee this weekend.

Tulsa's non-conference only has 3 opponents outside the Top 200.

I forgot that none of this mattered. UCLA, Indiana and LSU all got bids. Why bother playing the games?