Bubble Watch (2/25)

[shizzle787]

ACC
Locks: Duke, UNC
Should be in: Clemson (1 win to go), Virginia (2 wins to go)
Work left to do: Wake Forest, Pitt, NC State, Syracuse

Big 12
Locks: Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor
Should be in: Oklahoma (1 win to go), BYU (1 win to go), Texas Tech (1 win to go), TCU (1 win to go)
Work left to do: Texas, Kansas State, Cincy

Big East
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Should be in: Seton Hall (2 wins to go), Providence (2 wins to go)
Work left to do: St. John's, Butler, Villanova

Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Nebraska
Should be in: Northwestern (1 win to go), Michigan State (2 wins to go)
Work left to do: Minnesota, Iowa

Mountain West
Locks: None
Should be in: SDSU (1 win to go), Utah State (1 win to go), Colorado State (2 wins to go), Nevada (2 wins to go), New Mexico (2 wins to go)
Work left to do: Boise State

Pac-12
Lock: Arizona
Should be in: Washington State (1 win to go)
Work left to do: Oregon, Colorado, Utah

SEC
Locks: Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn
Should be in: Florida (1 win to go), Kentucky (1 win to go), Mississippi State (2 wins to go), Ole Miss (2 wins to go)
Work left to do: Texas A&M

Others
Locks: None
Should be in: St. Mary's (1 win to go), Gonzaga (2 wins to go), FAU (2 wins to go), Dayton (2 wins to go)
Work left to do: Memphis, USF, Indiana State, San Francisco, James Madison, Richmond, Loyola

 

[ecasadoSBU]

If St. John's closes the season 2-1 are they in? how about 3-0?

Butler
DePaul
Georgetown

 

[EnochRoot]

Yeah I'm going to push back on FAU in the 'should be in' status when USF is in the 'work left to do' bucket.

They both should be locks.

 

[HooperScooper]

If St. John's closes the season 2-1 are they in? how about 3-0?

Butler
DePaul
Georgetown

An issue with the Big East this year is that beating Georgetown and DePaul give you nothing. No juice. They're both terrible. DePaul's metrics are like that of a bad low major.

 

[shizzle787]

Yeah I'm going to push back on FAU in the 'should be in' status when USF is in the 'work left to do' bucket.

They both should be locks.

USF's SOS is 180. They are not even close.

 

[shizzle787]

An issue with the Big East this year is that beating Georgetown and DePaul give you nothing. No juice. They're both terrible. DePaul's metrics are like that of a bad low major.

Doesn't really matter. If any BE team gets to 20 wins by Selection Sunday they are all but in. If they get to 19, it's 50/50. 18 or less and you are out. If St. John's goes 2-1 to finish the regular season and gets to the BET semifinals, they are in. If they get to the quarterfinals, it is a toss-up.

 

[EnochRoot]

USF's SOS is 180. They are not even close.

Right. But if the goal is to have the best teams in the tournament, SOS is not the best metric. USF is freakin good.

 

[shizzle787]

Right. But if the goal is to have the best teams in the tournament, SOS is not the best metric. USF is freakin good.

Wins and SOS are the most important metrics underlining all of the other metrics. USF looks good lately but they played a crap schedule.

 

[EnochRoot]

Wins and SOS are the most important metrics underlining all of the other metrics. USF looks good lately but they played a crap schedule.

They're in the AAC. Can't help that.

What's killing USF is before they 'clicked' as a team this year, they have losses to CMU, Maine, Hofstra and UMass. Four of their five losses this year occurred before December 3rd, 2023.

 

[shizzle787]

They're in the AAC. Can't help that.

What's killing USF is before they 'clicked' as a team this year, they have losses to CMU, Maine, Hofstra and UMass. Four of their five losses this year occurred before December 3rd, 2023.

I get that but it is about your whole body of work, your resume so to speak.

 

[gsmooth]

If St. John's closes the season 2-1 are they in? how about 3-0?

Butler
DePaul
Georgetown

going off of my memory of their metrics if they go 3-0 or 2-1, I think they need 1 or 2 wins in the BET, at least 1. I don't remember who posted it here on the BoneYard, looking at history of the last 10 years, teams from the P6 conferences (or maybe just the Big East) that have 21 wins before Selection Sunday are a 90% chance to make it, while teams with 20 wins are about 50-60% chance, while 19 wins will get the team a 25% chance.

 

[auror]

One of the bigger bubble results from the weekend was New Mexico losing at home to Air Force. Wild result.

They beat absolutely nobody in non-conf, so they really need to finish strong in conference play to have a chance. They might be the most talented team in the MWC but still might be the team that gets left out.

Boise beat actual teams in non-conf and have better conference record.

 

[ToolzieFan]

On USF:

Let’s look at their rating on https://barttorvik.com/. I’m using that site over KenPom because I can filter by date. USF, despite their 21-5 record, is 100th per Torvik’s ratings, with the #114 offense and #92 defense. They lost to UMass on 12/2 and beat FSU on 12/9, so I looked at them from 12/9 to the present. They’re #80, with the #74 offense and #100 defense. Their last loss was on 1/7 to UAB. How do they rate from 1/8 on? 63rd overall, with the #94 offense and #52 defense. So, despite playing better lately, I still don’t see a compelling at-large case. It’s just hard to get past losses to Central Michigan and Maine.

In fairness to them, the unbalanced AAC schedule robbed them of chances at more quality wins.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

With so few non-MWC mid-majors looking to earn at-large bid, I’m rooting for the clear top teams from one-bid leagues to ensure maximum Madness:

• Dayton
• Indiana State
• McNeese State
• James Madison
• Louisiana Tech
• GCU
• Samford
• UC Irvine

All of these teams are currently top-80 in KenPom rankings.

For the Ivy, I honestly see Cornell as the team with the most upset potential. Their press gives teams fits, they are 12 deep and share the scoring responsibility throughout the lineup, plus Chris Manon has that fearless alpha energy and not afraid to play the villain. Just a tough, physical good shooting team.

 

[phillionaire]

michigan state might be on the wrong side of the bubble after home losses to iowa and ohio state this week

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Walk me through how when Big 12 teams game the NET, they are deserving of at-large bids, but when MWC teams game the NET, they are not.

 

[REB1094]

michigan state might be on the wrong side of the bubble after home losses to iowa and ohio state this week

They needed 2-0 but got 0-2. Now they need 3 wins and have 3 games to go

@ Purdue - automatic loss
Home vs Northwestern - could win this one. Northwestern is pretty bad on the road
@ Indiana - should win

According to the B12 bracket right now, they’d play Indiana or Michigan in the first round, then Northwestern. Then Illinois if they make it that far. Need to win 1-2 of those

 

[Inyatkin]

michigan state might be on the wrong side of the bubble after home losses to iowa and ohio state this week

Preseason top 5 in the nation. Izzo's still got it

 

[7774]

Walk me through how when Big 12 teams game the NET, they are deserving of at-large bids, but when MWC teams game the NET, they are not.

I’d love for people who keep saying teams are gaming the net to provide any actual evidence this is happening. It seems completely made up as far as I can tell.

 

[ToolzieFan]

I’d love for people who keep saying teams are gaming the net to provide any actual evidence this is happening. It seems completely made up as far as I can tell.

It would be interesting for someone to look at. I guess you’d have to identify teams whose NET ranking is better than their ranking in other predictive metrics? And then you’d have to follow up by looking for scheduling patterns that could be reasonably construed as intentional choices. I’d actually love to see if someone has looked closely at it.

 

[JungleLobo]

Yeah I'm going to push back on FAU in the 'should be in' status when USF is in the 'work left to do' bucket.

They both should be locks.

Ewww only number 2

 

[7774]

It would be interesting for someone to look at. I guess you’d have to identify teams whose NET ranking is better than their ranking in other predictive metrics? And then you’d have to follow up by looking for scheduling patterns that could be reasonably construed as intentional choices. I’d actually love to see if someone has looked closely at it.

I'm literally looking for an example of what people are talking about, because I don't know how you game these models. You always have to do better than the model predicts to move up, it's not enough to just beat some bad team by a lot. I looked at some mid B12 teams on Bart Torvik since that site gives you a score by game, and the B12 seems to be the conference where people bring this up the most.

Using Oklahoma as an example, one of the games that impacted their ranking most positively was beating #244 Texas St. by 39. 3 of the games that impacted their rating most negatively were beating #336 Central Arkansas by 16, beating #324 UT Rio Grand Valley by 24, and beating #330 Arkansas Pine Bluff by 21. Those are 3 of their worst 7 games of the year in the Bart Torvik model, even though they won all of them easily. The rest of their buy type games were scattered somewhere in between.

People act like all you have to do is play some crap teams and beat them by 20-25 and then the models will think you're amazing, when that's not close to true. Our 2 worst game this year on Torvik are losing to Creighton and Seton Hall. Our 3rd worst game is beating Mississippi Valley State by 34.

 

[jibsey]

If you asked Hurley he would probably tell you the BE is better than the Big 12 or B1G. But they will outperform the BE in bids won’t they?

 

[connVA]

Here’s a question regarding the First Four since Hall, Nova, Providence, and Butler are all in that range- if the committee determines that those four are the last four in, would they be able to violate the rule that teams from the same conference can’t meet until the Sweet 16? Or would they have to swap in two of the other 11 seeds from the main draw to avoid it? It seems unfair that two teams would need to play an extra game to adhere to bracketing rules. If it happened I don’t think we’d know (unless the committee left those conference matchups as-is) but I’d be interested to hear what the committee has said about that scenario.

 

[Fishy]

Yeah I'm going to push back on FAU in the 'should be in' status when USF is in the 'work left to do' bucket.

They both should be locks.

Lol.

No.

USF’s record against Q1 teams is what?