Bria, KML, Stef and ?, and? Open Next Season?

[John Fryer]

The articles and comments posted in reaction the posts about UConn's incoming Three All-American Recruits and the question of chemistry made me wonder - all over again - about what combination of player might be on the floor when the 2012-2013 BE season begins.

IMO, there are 3 locked positions.

AA-Bria in the 2 spot.

AA in waiting - KML in the 3 spot.

AA in waiting - Stef in the 5 spot.

Who will occupy the 1 and 4 spots will make for an exciting period of BY speculation between now and then.

So, lets begin the speculation:

The competition for the 1 spot will be between Caroline (front-runner), Brianna ( a year of being in coach A's system) and the incoming phenom point guard Moriah.

IMHO, the ultimate winner will be Moriah around the beginning of the BE season.

The competition for the 4 spot will be between Kelly (front-runner) and incoming phenoms power forwards Breanna and Morgan.

(Given our strength at the 1 spot, there won't be any need for a power-point forward.)

IMHO, when the BE season opens the 5 players on the floor will be:

Moriah in the 1 spot.

Bria in the 2 spot.

KML in the 3 spot.

Stef in the 5 spot.

Breanna/Morgan in the 4 spot.

Peace,

John Fryer

 

[MarieYLee]

I just can't see Kelly not starting.

It may be: Hartley, KML, Kelly, Breanna, Steph. With Moriah, Caroline, Kiah and Morgan being the 4 rotation bench players. Don't count out Brianna obviously. But that's my prediction.

 

[Vowelguy]

Doty & Faris. No question.

 

[doggydaddy]

Barring injuries, it will be the 4 starters from last year with Lewis taking Haye's slot.

No matter how many times this is discussed, there is NO reason for Geno to do anything different. He rarely starts freshman over returning starters unless he has to.

Minutes played are another story. I would imagine that both Doty and Faris will see their minutes reduced to get more playing time for the incoming freshman.

 

[JoePgh]

This again?

I think any discussion such as this should focus more on minutes than on who starts. A while ago I posted my prediction on the distribution of minutes. From memory, I think it was as follows:

Center: Stef 25 minutes; Kiah 15
PF: Breanna 20, Morgan 15, Kiah 5
Wing: KML 30, Kelly 10
SG: Bria 30, Caroline 10
PG: Faris 20, Moriah 15, Caroline 5

And I said that Geno will not want 3 freshmen on the floor at the same time until the game has been decided -- too much chance for rookie mistakes.

Which led to the conclusion that the starting line-up would be exactly what Marie proposes above, but with Kelly as the PG, Bria as the SG, and KML on the wing. At the first time-out, we will probably see Morgan, Moriah, and Kiah. Caroline will get her minutes. Overall, a 9-player rotation while the game is competitive.

With the other talent on the team, I would not be surprised to see Kelly anointed as the starting/primary PG. She certainly has the ball-handling, passing, press-breaking, see-the-whole-floor skills that the position requires, and it would not require her to be a main scorer. Moriah will certainly get her minutes -- more as the season progresses -- but I think Kelly will get her 30 minutes a game as the senior coach-on-the-floor and mistake-avoider.

I watched the 2001 UConn-Tennessee replay last week. That showed UConn with a deep bench and (I think) a 9-player rotation, but even though Diana as a freshman was playing very well, she did not supplant Shea and Svet on the floor -- and Shea at that point in the season was not much more of a scorer than Kelly. Next year could be similar.

 

[Vowelguy]

Since I see no debate on the starting 5, a potentially more interesting question is who Geno will have on the floor during crunch time.

For that, Hartley - KML - Stewart are a sure thing. Likely Dolson. Probably Faris.

 

[sarals24]

Kelly starts, end of discussion.

 

[Vowelguy]

And on the minutes, here are the stats from UConn's 13 top games (ie, excluding the blowouts which skew the results):

Hartley...36 (Max = 40, Min = 23)
Hayes.....33 (38/23)
Faris.....32 (38/21)
Dolson....30 (38/13)
KML.......29 (35/20)
Doty......23 (35/ 8)
Stokes....12 (28/ 1)
Banks......3 ( 6/ 0)
Buck.......2 (14/ 0)
MJ/LE......1 ( 6/ 0)

Faris & Doty will likely see the biggest drops in minutes. Dolson will drop as well. Probably not as much for BH & KML.

 

[doggydaddy]

Since I see no debate on the starting 5, a potentially more interesting question is who Geno will have on the floor during crunch time.

For that, Hartley - KML - Stewart are a sure thing. Likely Dolson. Probably Faris.

I agree. And what a lineup that would be!

 

[doggydaddy]

And on the minutes, here are the stats from UConn's 13 top games (ie, excluding the blowouts which skew the results):

Hartley...36 (Max = 40, Min = 23)
Hayes.....33 (38/23)
Faris.....32 (38/21)
Dolson....30 (38/13)
KML.......29 (35/20)
Doty......23 (35/ 8)
Stokes....12 (28/ 1)
Banks......3 ( 6/ 0)
Buck.......2 (14/ 0)
MJ/LE......1 ( 6/ 0)

Faris & Doty will likely see the biggest drops in minutes. Dolson will drop as well. Probably not as much for BH & KML.

Thanks for the stats!

I think that they will all come down as Hayes' 33 minutes are not enough for Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck.

It will make them more effective.

 

[Kibitzer]

If anyone were to ask Geno, "Who will be your five starters?," his honest answer would be, "I don't know (yet)."

OK, follow-up with, "Who will be on the court at crunch time?" Same answer, or, "Depends on the situation" (foul trouble, hot hand, match-ups, etc.).

Let me take a shot at minutes to be played, total, from top to bottom.

1. Kelly. She's a senior, will be a captain, she's tireless and a tenacious defender and Geno loves her.

2. Bria. Offensive firepower and boundless energy.

3. Kaleena. High octane firepower, tough defender/rebounder. (35 ppg between Bria and Kaleena is not unreasonable.)

4. Stef. Will dominate almost every opposing post player (one exception).

5. Breanna. Hard to keep a talent like this off the court. But she is a freshman.

6. Caroline. Likely to start each half but lose minutes to KML and Kelly.

7. Morgan. She said she doesn't intend to "sit the bench." And she won't, much. But she is a freshman.

8. Kiah. Spell Stef. Could conceivably overtake her in the rotation.

9. Brianna. Could surprise.

10. Moriah. Great upside but still a freshman PG.

11. Heather.

12. Lauren.

One final comment. Whatever pattern emerges in November will be modified in January and again in March. One or more of the freshmen could command 30+ minutes per game, but it will be tough to take minutes from Bria, Kaleena or Kelly.

 

[blackbird]

Doty & Faris. No question.

I really don't understand why this is such a question.

And I doubt it changes.

This unit might not play the most minutes together (or won't) and they might not finish the games..but they sure as heck will start.

My guess for finishing the games is Bria, KML, Kelly, Breanna, Stef.

 

[Icebear]

I really don't understand why this is such a question.

And I doubt it changes.

This unit might not play the most minutes together (or won't) and they might not finish the games..but they sure as heck will start.

My guess for finishing the games is Bria, KML, Kelly, Breanna, Stef.

Because some can't accept the answer and think bringing it up again and again will change. I won't. All the same answers still apply.

 

[Goodies07]

Since I see no debate on the starting 5, a potentially more interesting question is who Geno will have on the floor during crunch time.

For that, Hartley - KML - Stewart are a sure thing. Likely Dolson. Probably Faris.

I agree that the more important question is who will be on the court at the end of a close game. Last year, Kaleena didn't start, but she was more than often on the court near the end of tougher games. I have a hard time calling a freshman a "sure thing" when it comes to crunch time, especially when she hasn't even stepped on campus. But with her talent, I think Stewart will be right in that mix. For the most part I agree with your lineup, unless Geno wants Bria playing off the ball, which I could see happening a lot next season. He has other options at PG, namely Caroline and Moriah. Although Faris could slide over there too if needed.

 

[meyers7]

My guess for finishing the games is Bria, KML, Kelly, Breanna, Stef.

My guess for finishing most games is Jefferson, Engeln, Banks, Stokes, Buck.

 

[HGN]

I SEE THE FOUR(4) STARTERS FROM LAST YEAR + KML... (BEING ADDED TO TAKE OVER WHERE HAYES LEAVES OFF.)

The big battle , IMHO , is going to be between Banks and Doty. It will come down to how much Banks improve over the off season , and how well Doty can get her legs back without the pain. CD is a heady guard but has lost the speed and touch she once had.

I just dont see Geno starting a freshman over a talented upperclassman. He didnt start KML , and she was ultra talented, though she played a lot of minutes. I see the same for the incoming Big 3....Perhaps lots of minutes but playing behind an upperclassman.

 

[vtcwbuff]

Faris will start. That's a no brainer. KML will start as Hayes' replacement. If there is a question about next years lineup it will be Doty.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly made an effort to increase her
scoring. First becasuse she's a senior and won't be as inclined to
defer to others when she has an open shot. Second because she
may want to post better offensive numbers to make herself a
more attractive commodity for the WNBA draft.

 

[msf22b]

The question is whether Geno's traditional approach of retaining the returning starters in their traditional roles and minutes is followed as before . But there is also the talent and practice accomplishment approach which is also ingrained.

To me the answer of who starts and to whom minutes are given (after 5 or 10 games) is an unknown. Despite UCONN tradition and folklore, these three have been acknowledged by Geno as of yesterday's posts as something special.

“We’ve certainly brought our share of good recruiting classes over the years,” he said. “Signing the three of them is a huge accomplishment. They are unique. We’ve had a lot of great guards, but I don’t know that they’ve been like Moriah Jefferson. We’ve had a lot of great wing players, most recently Maya Moore, but none exactly like Morgan Tuck. We’ve also had a lot of 6-3, 6-4 kids come through here, but none of them are like Breanna Stewart.


Coach may very well (less strong: it is possible) have two diametrically opposed axiomatic philosophies from which to choose his lineups.

It will be interesting to see how the youngsters perform, but if they are ready, it is my guess that they will play and plenty.

 

[Vowelguy]

The question is whether Geno's traditional approach of retaining the returning starters in their traditional roles and minutes is followed as before .

Roles, yes; minutes, no. On the latter, there has never been a tradition.

Performance and effort are rewarded with minutes, not with starting.

94-95: Nykesha Sales > Pam Webber. Who started?
07-08: Maya Moore > Kalana Greene. Who started?
11-12: KML > Doty. Who started?

numerous other examples

 

[Bestiarius]

My guess for finishing most games is Jefferson, Engeln, Banks, Stokes, Buck.

I hope you're right, because it would mean we'll be way ahead (I'm sure that was your intent?).

 

[Bestiarius]

This line up won't really happen, but how many games would these two lines win if each group played every game equal time? Who would you switch to the other team?
Team 1
Stef
Morgan
Kelly
Caroline
Moriah
Lauren

Team 2
Kiah
Heather
Breanna
KML
Bria
Brianna

.

 

[pppggg]

There seams to be a constant fascination on the forum with the next bright new toy. By that I mean people always seam willing to throw the veteran players under the bus for the next incoming phenom.

Haven’t we learned by now that barring injury, Geno with stick with his veteran players and work the freshmen in as the season progresses?

Having said that, anyone who thinks Faris is not starting hasn’t been paying attention for the last 3 years. She made the play of the game against ND at the buzzer, giving the Huskies a chance to at least win in OT. You would have a better chance of seeing God in this life than you would Faris not starting.

Next CD basically missed 2 years in a row with ACL issues and Geno has said she needs to start. He doesn’t want to bring her off the bench without warming up. She will work her tail off to improve her lateral movement and her offense.

Additionally, there are 2 more important factors that will lead to CD starting. First Geno is 100% loyal to his girls. And second but more importantly, you will have to pry the ball from her cold dead hand for her not to start. You can take that to the bank!

 

[Olde Coach]

My guess for finishing most games is Jefferson, Engeln, Banks, Stokes, Buck.

+1 Meyers

 

[Shenandoah]

Caroline will start at the PG. Geno loves her grit, and her ability to keep the game under control. She will also be a full year + of full-time basketball, from her injury. I expect whe will recover some of her quickness, and confidence in her shot. She starts.
Kelly also starts at the 4. She's one of the toughest kids in the country, can, and will guard anyone from 1-5, and is hands down the best defender in WCBB.