Bracketology

[Phil]

Thats disappointing, though I'd figure most anyone would bet on the ACC in a head to head matchup between the two leagues.

I know I would, I was surprised at the numbers.

 

[ScarlettB]

I like the initial top 16 seeds other than Virginia and Nebraska.

My take is that Maryland is more likely a 3 than a 1. For Maryland to get a 1, they would need a major collapse by one of the top 4 and/or a lot of help from Duke and Miami. My best guess is that Stanford has 1-2 losses going into the NCAAs and Maryland has 3-4.

Not likely, but suppose that UConn or ND loses to the other 3X then loses one more--that could cost them a 1 seed. Most likely, the 1 seeds are the top 4 in the polls now. They really do look like the best 4 teams. Depending on NCAA matchups, I think Baylor, UConn, ND, and Stanford will lose only to each other this year--no team outside this group.

I'm not sure the Big East will get two number one seeds. ND has a pretty tough schedule with most of their games against the top ranked conference foes on the road (RU, Louisville & G'town), plus they have to play TN. If they have to play UConn three times prior to the NCAA's, two of those games will be on UConn's home courts. Most of UConn's tough conference games are at home, but they do have to play Duke at Cameron, @ Louisville and one game @ ND. I think it will come down to the number of losses either of those teams have as compared to Stanford, the ACC champion, or even possibly Ohio State if they keep winning.

 

[semper]

A lot is going to depend on whether the top four seeds loose only to each other, or to someone outside the top 4. I think if ND beat UConn and Uconn beats ND, that it doesn't matter. They are 2 and 3, and in order to drop either of them will have to loose to someone besides the other. What is on the horizon? ND will have to beat Tenn, that's for sure. Besides ND who else do we fear in conference play? The Rug I guess and G-town, but I think we'll beat them and ND probably will too.

 

[DaddyChoc]

Okay, let me whine for a minute. I'd give a lot to be able to buy tickets to two UConn games, blowout or not, that were within an hour or so of my house. Unfortunately, to get to Bridgeport would take about 2500 miles of travel. Each way. Sigh.

just over an hour for me... so nope Im not going!

 

[Ruffian75]

Here are the sub regional sites...there really is a huge void in Big 12 (10) territory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NCAA_Women's_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament

Where does Baylor go? Closest to farthest. They could end up in Iowa
College Station? Nope. A & M
Norman? Only if Oklahoma doesn't get in.
Little Rock? If Arkansas is an 8 or 9 or misses the dance
Baton Rouge? If LSU is an 8 or 9
Nashville? If is Vandy is 8 or 9
Tallahassee? If FSU is an 8 or 9 or misses the dance

 

[Vowelguy]

Here are the sub regional sites...there really is a huge void in Big 12 (10) territory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NCAA_Women's_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament

Where does Baylor go? Closest to farthest. They could end up in Iowa
College Station? Nope. A & M
Norman? Only if Oklahoma doesn't get in.
Little Rock? If Arkansas is an 8 or 9 or misses the dance
Baton Rouge? If LSU is an 8 or 9
Nashville? If is Vandy is 8 or 9
Tallahassee? If FSU is an 8 or 9 or misses the dance

Univ of Arkansas is not in Little Rock. I bet Baylor goes there.

 

[Wbbfan1]

There are enough colleges in the Southern California area that if there was some cooperation amongst them there could be a site that hosts the first two rounds every year. Rotate the site between schools every year. As USC and UCLA improve their women's programs those two schools alone could host a site. Although it would be better if more schools were involved. A regional could be held in the same area every two or three years. Sure seems like that would make sense to me. It would also help grow the game in a huge market. Southern Calif. is already a hot bed of Women's HS Basketball.

 

[Ruffian75]

Univ of Arkansas is not in Little Rock. I bet Baylor goes there.

Just map quested..190 miles from U of A to LR. The host team is Ark at LR. You are probably right

Anyway, if WCBB ever wants to turn a profit on the NCAAT, they need to go back to the top 16 teams hosting sub-regionals. Little Rock will sell 6000 tickets for two sessions. Baylor at home would sell 20,000. In the regionals...Fresno v Palo Alto....6000 v 14,000. It will be all Stanford fans anyway. I think they really jumped the gun when they started with the pre-named sub regional sites? '98 or so?

IMO it is a misuse of Title IX. WCBB is the one sport that could generate a good chunk of money to help subsidize what every school has to spend on women's sports through their tourney, but I am sure the bottom line at the end of every season is a huge loss.

 

[Vowelguy]

There are enough colleges in the Southern California area that if there was some cooperation amongst them there could be a site that hosts the first two rounds every year.

IIRC, every tournament that has been hosted in SoCal - whether the NCAA or the PAC tourney - has done abysmally in attendance.

 

[ochoopsfan]

There are enough colleges in the Southern California area that if there was some cooperation amongst them there could be a site that hosts the first two rounds every year. Rotate the site between schools every year. As USC and UCLA improve their women's programs those two schools alone could host a site. Although it would be better if more schools were involved. A regional could be held in the same area every two or three years. Sure seems like that would make sense to me. It would also help grow the game in a huge market. Southern Calif. is already a hot bed of Women's HS Basketball.

There are a ton of schools in So Cal but a ton more of apathetic fans. So Cal is a hot bed for players. Attendance for the Pac12 tournament is anemic, and the venue for it, USC/Galen Center is great. So would the remodeled Pauley Pavillion be next year. The only other acceptable college venues for a regional or sub regional would be SD State or USD, possibly LB State. No way could UCI, UCR, CSF, CSN, LMU, Pepperdine, or even as far away as UC Santa Barbara host a regional. Of course bigger venues like Staples, Honda Center, LA Sports Arena, Anaheim Arena, or even the new arena in Ontario could be available, but the cost vs the gate might be out of line. There is a handful of good followers of WBB in So Cal. I would go to the games, but I only fill one seat.

 

[MilfordHusky]

A lot is going to depend on whether the top four seeds loose only to each other, or to someone outside the top 4. I think if ND beat UConn and Uconn beats ND, that it doesn't matter. They are 2 and 3, and in order to drop either of them will have to loose to someone besides the other. What is on the horizon? ND will have to beat Tenn, that's for sure. Besides ND who else do we fear in conference play? The Rug I guess and G-town, but I think we'll beat them and ND probably will too.

I agree totally. Even if ND has as many as 3 losses to UConn and 1 to Baylor, I'd say they are the 3rd or 4th best team in the country--unless Duke or Maryland turns it on an runs the table. I expect ND and UConn to split the 3 games. I hope we get the majority, and especially the last one.

 

[Wbbfan1]

I agree that's what happened in the past. What I'm counting on is UCLA and USC improve their fan base with their improved women's basketball program. Both programs are on the upswing. I am hoping that UCLA continues to improve even though they lost Nikki Caldwell as their head coach. As both programs improve the fan base should grow along with it.

IIRC, every tournament that has been hosted in SoCal - whether the NCAA or the PAC tourney - has done abysmally in attendance.

 

[Phil]

Just for clarification:
University of Arkansas at Little Rock

University of Arkansas (in Fayetteville)

 

[MilfordHusky]

Thanks for the correction. I need to read more closely. I thought the expanded conference crowded out the OOC teams.

I agree that they do not play a weak OOC schedule--no cupcakes like Savannah State or Charleston--but I think that this year's was weaker than the prior 2 years.

This year, they played UConn, Tennessee, Texas, Gonzaga, Xavier, Princeton, and ODU.

Last year, they played the same, except had Rutgers and DePaul instead of Princeton and ODU.

The year before, they played Rutgers and Duke.

I think the top 4-5 in the OOC schedule was weaker this year than the last 2. Not enough opportunities for good wins.

I still think they will be a 1 seed on merit. They have made the Final 4 for four years in a row and have arguably the nation's best player.

 

[Phil]

Just map quested..190 miles from U of A to LR. The host team is Ark at LR. You are probably right

That's my guess AR Little Rock is 5-9 and not going. Wonder why they bid?

 

[Vowelguy]

That's my guess AR Little Rock is 5-9 and not going. Wonder why they bid?

Why did Fairfield bid?

Because they think there's an opportunity to make some $.

 

[Ruffian75]

IIRC, every tournament that has been hosted in SoCal - whether the NCAA or the PAC tourney - has done abysmally in attendance.

I remember one of the LA schools hosting a sub-regional 6 or 7 years ago and the attendance was in the 12 to 1500 range per session.

 

[Phil]

Fairfield is likely to make some money. AR Little Rock might hit the jackpot with Baylor, but they didn't know that when they bid.

 

[Ruffian75]

That's my guess AR Little Rock is 5-9 and not going. Wonder why they bid?

Mind boggling isn't it? Why not at least give teams with a proven track record regarding attendance with a good chance of being in the dance the sites? Even if Arkansas gets in, they will not draw anyone from 190 miles away. Last year their average attendance was 1886 per game. Texas Tech and New Mexico should be on the sub-regional list every year. They support WCBB even if they don't have a team in the tourney.

Maybe a way to reward the fans and teams is to look at the 16 teams that had the highest attendance from the year before and let them host the sub-regionals. Teams like Louisville, Kentucky and Baylor that have come a long way in a short time should be rewarded with two home games

Tennessee 12,537
Louisville 10,859
Connecticut 9,496
Iowa St. 9,370
Notre Dame 8,553
Baylor 7,933
New Mexico 7,677
Purdue 7,628
Michigan St. 7,388
Texas Tech 7,043
Kentucky 6,364
Texas A&M 6,104
Iowa 5,823
Oklahoma 5,490
Duke 5,216
Maryland 5,161
---------------
17 ...Stanford

 

[Vowelguy]

Fairfield is likely to make some money. AR Little Rock might hit the jackpot with Baylor, but they didn't know that when they bid.

How do you know?
They are a reasonable distance from SEC and BigXII country - I'm sure they figured they would be within range for several teams there. And given Little Rock's absence from the major sports scene, they probably thought they could generate local interest.

I assure you they did not go into it thinking they'd lose money.

 

[Vowelguy]

Mind boggling isn't it? Why not at least give teams with a proven track record regarding attendance with a good chance of being in the dance the sites? Even if Arkansas gets in, they will not draw anyone from 190 miles away. Last year their average attendance was 1886 per game.

No not mind boggling at all.
Just because a team gets good attendance does not mean that lots of fans will show up to watch other teams. Also, there may be poor attendance for a local team because it stinks, but there might be folks who would go to watch tourney competition.

The NCAA also has an incentive in bringing the game to different parts of the country and trying to generate interest and attention.

 

[Ruffian75]

The NCAA also has an incentive in bringing the game to different parts of the country and trying to generate interest and attention.

Yes they do and places like Louisville, Lexington, and Waco deserve to be rewarded Folks either like WCBB or they don't. It is not a new sport any longer. Trenton, Fresno, and Sacramento shouldn't be hosting regionals. It does nothing for the growth of the game. IMO making money should be the most important thing. It is accomplished in one way....fannies in the seats. If you look at the overall attendance over the last 7 or 8 years, there has been relatively little growth. The sport has plateaued since the big spurt from its 1995 invention through the DT era.

 

[willtalk]

Just for clarification:
University of Arkansas at Little Rock

University of Arkansas (in Fayetteville)

I think what may have confused some people is that even though UA is located in Fayetteville they used to play their football game in Little Rock. Then later because of population shifts ( and money- Walmart ) it made Fayetteville a more attractive venue so they would split the games between the two cities. I don't really know for sure if they still do that or play all their games in Fayetteville.