Bracketology

[semper]

I never thought I'd miss the constant barrage of bracketology notices, but to go cold turkey? Anybody know what has happened to Charlie Creme? The last I can find has UC as a no. 2 seed, and UT as a no. 1. Or have I just missed something? At this point an analysis would be at least interesting.

 

[rington]

Charlie will be coming out with his next Bracketology list later in January. It will start to get more interesting as weeks(and games) go by.

 

[Vowelguy]

Here's a thought...

RI: UConn, Duke, Rutgers, Delaware
NC: NDame, Md, Oh St, UVa
IA: Baylor, Tenn, Miami, Nebraska
CA: Stanf, Kentucky, G'town, TAMU

 

[semper]

I like the distribution...and putting the Bears against the Vols is just right. I wonder if Maryland will hold as a 2 seed?

 

[rington]

Here's a thought...

RI: UConn, Duke, Rutgers, Delaware
NC: NDame, Md, Oh St, UVa
IA: Baylor, Tenn, Miami, Nebraska
CA: Stanf, Kentucky, G'town, TAMU

I like your thinking. I still say that the Uconn-Notre
Dame meetings will be huge in determining
seedings. They will probably play each other 3 times(including the BE Tourney).
If so, one of those 2 teams will have at least 3 losses for the year.

 

[rington]

I.ve been contemplating about buying tickets to the first and 2nd rounds in Bridgeport, but those 2 games are usually blowouts for Uconn.

 

[triaddukefan]

I like the distribution...and putting the Bears against the Vols is just right. I wonder if Maryland will hold as a 2 seed?

Maryland is a darkhorse for a #1. I expect them to be at least a #2

 

[tomcat]

I.ve been contemplating about buying tickets to the first and 2nd rounds in Bridgeport, but those 2 games are usually blowouts for Uconn.

Okay, let me whine for a minute. I'd give a lot to be able to buy tickets to two UConn games, blowout or not, that were within an hour or so of my house. Unfortunately, to get to Bridgeport would take about 2500 miles of travel. Each way. Sigh.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Based on where you placed the 2 seeds, I presume you have them ranked Maryland, Duke, Tenn and then Kentucky. That is the only way these teams can be in the regions you have them in.

I think the ACC teams will beat each other up and Maryland won't end up at the highest ranked 2 seed. IMHO that will go to Tenn and if that does happen Tenn ends up in NC. I agree Maryland probably end ups higher ranked then Duke, so they go to RI and Duke ends up in Iowa with Baylor.

Unfortunately seeding is based on Geography and not the S Curve.

While I agree that ND and UConn will end up as one seeds, the only way that happens is if each win a game against each other and have no other losses in the Big East. If one team sweeps the other, then the team that is swept probably doesn't get a one seed and will end up as a 2 seed.

Here's a thought...

RI: UConn, Duke, Rutgers, Delaware
NC: NDame, Md, Oh St, UVa
IA: Baylor, Tenn, Miami, Nebraska
CA: Stanf, Kentucky, G'town, TAMU

 

[Vowelguy]

Based on where you placed the 2 seeds, I presume you have them ranked Maryland, Duke, Tenn and then Kentucky. That is the only way these teams can be in the regions you have them in.

Nope. Tenn is closer to IA than RI, so it was MD/TN/DK/KY.

I think the ACC teams will beat each other up and Maryland won't end up at the highest ranked 2 seed. IMHO that will go to Tenn and if that does happen Tenn ends up in NC. I agree Maryland probably end ups higher ranked then Duke, so they go to RI and Duke ends up in Iowa with Baylor.

While I agree that ND and UConn will end up as one seeds, the only way that happens is if each win a game against each other and have no other losses in the Big East. If one team sweeps the other, then the team that is swept probably doesn't get a one seed and will end up as a 2 seed.

I think you are over-downgrading quality losses. A loss or two in a tough conference is not worse than going undefeated in an easier conference.

 

[Stray Cat]

I like your thinking. I still say that the Uconn-Notre Dame meetings will be huge in determining seedings. They will probably play each other 3 times(including the BE Tourney). If so, one of those 2 teams will have at least 3 losses for the year.

As long as UConn or ND does not sweep the three games they will most likely play against each other, I think both will be in good positions for a #1 seed. Like vowelguy stated, a loss or two in a tough conference (especially to a Top 5 ranked team) is not worse than going undefeated in an easier conference."

Seeing Tenn plays Baylor, Stanford and ND in the regular season, I think this could be the year that they end up in the same regional as UConn. Also take into consideration the uncertainty of Pat Summitt's coaching career going forward, this could be one of the last chances for Geno and Pat to coach against each other...and you know the entire world of women's college basketball would love to see this match-up happen (save for the fans in Knoxville)!

 

[rjp172]

I don't even think one team sweeping the other would prevent a #1 seed as long as they both win out the rest of their schedules. Four losses to Baylor and UConn/ND would still be contrasted by wins over the other contenders. There would be combined wins over Stan, UT, Duke, Kentucky, A & M. ND was still a #2 last year with 7 losses, because 4 were to Baylor and UConn. Maryland is the only team that can prevent it in my estimation. To do that they'd most likely have to dominate the ACC and that still might not be enough to offset their OOC schedule.

 

[triaddukefan]

I don't even think one team sweeping the other would prevent a #1 seed as long as they both win out the rest of their schedules. Four losses to Baylor and UConn/ND would still be contrasted by wins over the other contenders. There would be combined wins over Stan, UT, Duke, Kentucky, A & M. ND was still a #2 last year with 7 losses, because 4 were to Baylor and UConn. Maryland is the only team that can prevent it in my estimation. To do that they'd most likely have to dominate the ACC and that still might not be enough to offset their OOC schedule.

While unlikely to happen.... If Maryland goes say 15-1... in the ACC and wins the ACC tourney.... their is no way to justify Stanford being a #1 seed over them. And this is coming from an avowed turtle hater.

 

[Phil]

While unlikely to happen.... If Maryland goes say 15-1... in the ACC and wins the ACC tourney.... their is no way to justify Stanford being a #1 seed over them. And this is coming from an avowed turtle hater.

"No way"? Sounds like a challenge. And not a tough one.

We assume Stanford ends up 28–1 for regular season, highly likely, then wins the conference tournament.

Maryland, per your assumption, goes 15–1 in the ACC so is also 28–1 for regular season, and wins the ACC tournament.

Who does MD lose to? Their best option is Duke, because everyone else is ranked lower.

Which means Stanford has a single loss to a one seed, and MD has a loss to a team that has at least three losses (two to date, plus one to Duke). The Duke may be a three seed or a weak two seed. (Obviously, Duke can do better, but not and have this conversation about MD with a one loss season)

Maryland's best win will be over Duke, while Stanford's will be TN. Maybe a push, but the Stanford win may carry more weight. When it comes to losses, Stanford will have one to a 1 seed, while Maryland has a loss to a weak 2 or strong 3. Stanford gets the edge, without even considering that the committee likes Tar more than Brenda.

(I've argued that MD may well be a 1 seed, but my scenario includes running the table, not losing to Duke or someone else.)

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Charlie heard you!!!!

He just posted a video blog giving Baylor, UCONN, ND, and Stanford as #1

Maryland, OSU, Tenn, and Duke as #2's with Kentucky "right there"

Check it out on ESPN.

 

[triaddukefan]

"No way"? Sounds like a challenge. And not a tough one.

We assume Stanford ends up 28–1 for regular season, highly likely, then wins the conference tournament.

Maryland, per your assumption, goes 15–1 in the ACC so is also 28–1 for regular season, and wins the ACC tournament.

Who does MD lose to? Their best option is Duke, because everyone else is ranked lower.

Which means Stanford has a single loss to a one see, and MD has a loss to a team that has at least three losses (two to date, plus one to Duke). The Duke may be a three seed or a weak two seed. (Obviously, Duke can do better, but not and have this conversation about MD with a one loss season)

Maryland's best win will be over Duke, while Stanford's will be TN. Maybe a push, but the Stanford win may carry more weight. When it comes to losses, Stanford will have one to a 1 seed, while Maryland has a loss to a weak 2 or strong 3. Stanford gets the edge, without even considering that the committee likes Tar more than Brenda.

(I've argued that MD may well be a 1 seed, but my scenario includes running the table, not losing to Duke or someone else.)

Say MD loses to Duke in Durham.... but doesnt lose any other ACC game. That will include 2 wins over miami, 1 win over Duke, 2 over UVA, 2 over UNC, 2 over GaTech, and one over FSU. In the ACC tourney they will likely have beaten Duke again in the Conference Championship game. Plus their non conference wins over Georgetown and Delaware. Compared to Stanford's best three wins would be over Texas in Austin and Gonazaga and Tenn... at home.

It would be a joke if Stanford got the final #1 seed over Maryland. Again let me state, that I hate MD.... and I would love to see them lose the rest of their games this season.

 

[Vowelguy]

Say MD loses to Duke in Durham.... but doesnt lose any other ACC game. That will include 2 wins over miami, 1 win over Duke, 2 over UVA, 2 over UNC, 2 over GaTech, and one over FSU. In the ACC tourney they will likely have beaten Duke again in the Conference Championship game. Plus their non conference wins over Georgetown and Delaware. Compared to Stanford's best three wins would be over Texas in Austin and Gonazaga and Tenn... at home.

It would be a joke if Stanford got the final #1 seed over Maryland. Again let me state, that I hate MD.... and I would love to see them lose the rest of their games this season.

Fully agree. That volume of quality wins would make it hands-down in MD's favor.

I don't see how a team that was ~10-1 against the RPI top 25 loses a #1 seed to a team that was ~3-1.

 

[rington]

Say MD loses to Duke in Durham.... but doesnt lose any other ACC game. That will include 2 wins over miami, 1 win over Duke, 2 over UVA, 2 over UNC, 2 over GaTech, and one over FSU. In the ACC tourney they will likely have beaten Duke again in the Conference Championship game. Plus their non conference wins over Georgetown and Delaware. Compared to Stanford's best three wins would be over Texas in Austin and Gonazaga and Tenn... at home.

It would be a joke if Stanford got the final #1 seed over Maryland. Again let me state, that I hate MD.... and I would love to see them lose the rest of their games this season.

I know I'm reaching way out there, but if MD had played Uconn, I believe they would not have done very well at all???

 

[triaddukefan]

I know I'm reaching way out there, but if MD had played Uconn, I believe they would not have done very well at all???

Ok.... but if Stanford would have to play MD's conference schedule... they wouldnt go undefeated like they will in the Pac 12.

 

[rington]

Ok.... but if Stanford would have to play MD's conference schedule... they wouldnt go undefeated like they will in the Pac 12.

Maybe, Maybe not; we're both speculating.

 

[Phil]

Good arguments on both sides - I think the best thing to happen is that Duke sweeps the two or three meetings, and then it becomes moot.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I like the initial top 16 seeds other than Virginia and Nebraska.

My take is that Maryland is more likely a 3 than a 1. For Maryland to get a 1, they would need a major collapse by one of the top 4 and/or a lot of help from Duke and Miami. My best guess is that Stanford has 1-2 losses going into the NCAAs and Maryland has 3-4.

Not likely, but suppose that UConn or ND loses to the other 3X then loses one more--that could cost them a 1 seed. Most likely, the 1 seeds are the top 4 in the polls now. They really do look like the best 4 teams. Depending on NCAA matchups, I think Baylor, UConn, ND, and Stanford will lose only to each other this year--no team outside this group.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Is Stanford in the discussion/dilemma every year??

 

[MilfordHusky]

Is Stanford in the discussion/dilemma every year??

Things are different for Stanford this year and could be the same going forward. With their expanded conference, they play more conference games and fewer out of conference. The Pac-12 won't test them, so the UConn and Tennessee games are the only tough ones for them. For at least the prior 3 years, they were clearly 1-seed worthy. There is some feeling that this Cardinal team is not as good as last year's. So the question is how to handle the weak schedule? I'd rate them down if they had lost to Tennessee or if Maryland matches their 1-loss record. I think they are the 4th best team, so I expect them to get a 1. If they get a 2, so long as it is in the West, it won't hurt them.

Going back 8-10 years, Stanford had one of the best records most years but exited the tourney earlier than expected. When they got talent like Appel, Pedersen, and the O sisters, that changed. They can now compete with anyone.

 

[rington]

Charlie heard you!!!!

He just posted a video blog giving Baylor, UCONN, ND, and Stanford as #1

Maryland, OSU, Tenn, and Duke as #2's with Kentucky "right there"

Check it out on ESPN.

He will have a full 64 team report one week from today.