Bracketology - week of Mar 2 thru 15 | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Bracketology - week of Mar 2 thru 15

www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: How the committee's top-16 reveal rippled through the field

Saturday, the committee revealed the top-16 teams that will host early round games. North Carolina moved in.
www.espn.com
Entering Friday’s SEC quarterfinals, Vanderbilt still had a shot at a No. 1 seed. Then Ole Miss dominated the Commodores in the first half en route to an 89-78 win. The upset spoiled what would have been a Texas-Vanderbilt matchup in the semifinals, a game that would have also decided the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Commodores will have to settle for a No. 2 seed, while Ole Miss raised its profile to a No. 5. LSU still has a chance to sneak into the final No. 1 slot if it wins the SEC tournament. But first, the Tigers must beat South Carolina on Saturday. Win or lose, the Gamecocks are safe as the third No. 1 seed, so it’s LSU or Texas for the fourth 1-seed. Unless, of course, Ole Miss keeps pulling surprises and wins the SEC tournament, which could open the door for Iowa or Michigan to reach the top line if either can win the Big Ten tournament.​
​
Ohio State up and Oklahoma down a seed. My poor hubby's Navy is matched up with LSU in round 1. A bunch of teams changed regions.

1772892801766.jpeg
 
Stagnant said:
As a UConn fan, I don’t want Tennessee in the 8/9 game in our region. It is still a rivalry; and I don’t want to give them a chance to salvage their season at our expense.
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Vowelguy said:
If they are 8/9, they are either in Storrs or Westwood.
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As of this morning, 8 Tenn plays 9 Iowa State in UCLA's pod.
 
Charlie’s new bracketology would be perfect for UConn. Avoided 8/9 Tennessee. Vandy instead of LSU as the two seed. Texas and Iowa as the other 1 and 2 on their side of the bracket. South Carolina, LSU, Michigan, and UCLA all on the other side of the bracket.

Perfect. Simply perfect.
 
Stagnant said:
Charlie’s new bracketology would be perfect for UConn. Avoided 8/9 Tennessee. Vandy instead of LSU as the two seed. Texas and Iowa as the other 1 and 2 on their side of the bracket. South Carolina, LSU, Michigan, and UCLA all on the other side of the bracket.

Perfect. Simply perfect.
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But not so perfect for ASU.

Creme and one other bracketologist have Nebraska dancing and ASU at home as well as BYU at home. Frankly I can't see that.

Love this bracketology which has ASU dancing.

Molly Miller made the point that no 24 win power 4 has ever been left out of the dance.

herhoopstats.com

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats
herhoopstats.com herhoopstats.com

This "expert" has Nebraska in and as ASU out

 
Arizona state missing for Nebraska would be disappointing.

There is a stat that no power 5 team with 23 or 24 wins has ever missed the ncaa tournament. And Arizona state qualifies. Always trust the stats.
 
Stagnant said:
Charlie’s new bracketology would be perfect for UConn. Avoided 8/9 Tennessee. Vandy instead of LSU as the two seed. Texas and Iowa as the other 1 and 2 on their side of the bracket. South Carolina, LSU, Michigan, and UCLA all on the other side of the bracket.

Perfect. Simply perfect.
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for sure!!
 
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Eye tests - for mid majors and non-favored programs everywhere ...

 
I think Richmond is probably done. A10 isn't getting 3 teams and I can't see anyone in good faith voting for Richmond over George Mason (who probably needs the AQ, themselves).

Columbia loses final regular season game to Harvard. If there was any doubt, that probably also eliminates them from any AL talk.
 
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I'm just sayin'--LSU was 1-4 against South Carolina, Vandy and Texas (plus 0-1 against Kentucky). Shouldn't they have won more games against the best teams if they were really all that good? And 2 of those losses were at home.
 
Today's updates from Charlie & Megan -
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: How the committee's top-16 reveal rippled through the field

Saturday, the committee revealed the top-16 teams that will host early round games. North Carolina moved in.
www.espn.com
With Texas’ win over Ole Miss and LSU falling to South Carolina in the SEC semifinals, the No. 1 seeds are set, as the Longhorns nail down the final spot. Now they battle the Gamecocks on Sunday for the SEC title and the No. 3 overall seed. With a win, Texas would also take the season series from South Carolina and earn placement in the Fort Worth region. The Longhorns wouldn’t have to leave the state of Texas until the Final Four. Meanwhile, at the other end of the bracket, things shifted yet again on the bubble. A loss to Harvard cost Columbia what had been designated as the Ivy League’s automatic qualifier. Princeton, which is in as an at-large already, takes over the league’s AQ, opening another at-large spot. Richmond hangs on despite a dismal performance in the A-10 semifinals. Arizona State is also back in after a second look at the résumé. On this year’s bubble, there are more teams with razor-thin differences than we have seen in a long time.​
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1772970139608.jpeg

12 - Big Ten
10 - SEC
9 - ACC
8 - Big 12
2 - Big East
2 - Atlantic 10

herhoopstats.com

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats
herhoopstats.com herhoopstats.com
With South Carolina and Texas set to meet for a third time this season in the SEC Championship game, the No. 1 seeds are locked up. Meanwhile, after Michigan's loss to Iowa in the Big Ten Semifinals, the Wolverines slide to a No. 3 seed. Louisville slides into the final No. 2 seed spot for now, but ultimately the winner of tomorrow's ACC Championship meeting between the Cardinals and Duke will take it. The Atlantic 10 semifinals were also impactful today, with Richmond losing to Rhode Island. The Spiders stay in the field for now, as the last team in. Their fate on Selection Sunday will be decided by the results of the Summit League and Ivy League tournaments. Congratulations to Western Illinois on claiming the first automatic bid with the OVC trophy today. Eight tickets to the Big Dance are on the line tomorrow!​
 
nwhoopfan said:
I'm just sayin'--LSU was 1-4 against South Carolina, Vandy and Texas (plus 0-1 against Kentucky). Shouldn't they have won more games against the best teams if they were really all that good? And 2 of those losses were at home.
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I guess it's all about perspective. Yes, they lost those games. By 2 points at home to Kentucky; by 4 points at Vandy; by 7 points at home to South Carolina; by 13 points at Texas (game was close until a late Texas run); and by 6 points yesterday to South Carolina.

Despite that, I see a lot of UConn posters making comments that they don't want to see LSU in their quadrant of the bracket, and would prefer Vanderbilt (a team which beat LSU).

A lot of coaches say that in post-season, you win with guard play. LSU has four good to great guards.
 
typhaon said:
I think Richmond is probably done. A10 isn't getting 3 teams and I can't see anyone in good faith voting for Richmond over George Mason (who probably needs the AQ, themselves).

Columbia loses final regular season game to Harvard. If there was any doubt, that probably also eliminates them from any AL talk.
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You and I think that but as of this morning Charlie doesn't with Richmond he last team in and what I consider to be a deeply deserving BYU out.

And don't get me started about the place holder or Nebraska Huskers....

Good news is it appears today if she was safely on and now I can start worrying about the cost of travel to Ann Arbor.. or wherever else the Sun Devils make it sent
 
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I looked at Crème’s “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out” entries. And I think they make a great argument against expansion. Something the NCAA seems determined to do.

Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Stanford, Indiana, and Kansas State are some of the teams listed. And there is just no universe where they deserve to compete in the ncaa tournament. If you are going to let teams like that in… why even have a regular season. They all lost way too many games to be considered. And frankly, so did Nebraska.
 
Stagnant said:
you are going to let teams like that in… why even have a regular season. They all lost way too many games to be considered. And frankly, so did Nebraska.
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Absolutely. I love the Huskers but there's no way in any universe that they should be dancing. Creme still has them according to one of our BYers as a placeholder. And the Huskers don't deserve to be a placeholder and I still wonder why Creme has Richmond in.

By every criteria BYU deserves to dance.
 
southie said:
I guess it's all about perspective. Yes, they lost those games. By 2 points at home to Kentucky; by 4 points at Vandy; by 7 points at home to South Carolina; by 13 points at Texas (game was close until a late Texas run); and by 6 points yesterday to South Carolina.

Despite that, I see a lot of UConn posters making comments that they don't want to see LSU in their quadrant of the bracket, and would prefer Vanderbilt (a team which beat LSU).

A lot of coaches say that in post-season, you win with guard play. LSU has four good to great guards.
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I can understand that. And Mulkey is certainly a coach who has shown she can win in March. But her M.O. is pretty much win the Title, or flame out in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. Pretty sure she only has 1 Final Four that didn't end in a Championship. Can't see this team cutting the nets down, so past precedence tells me this LSU squad isn't one to be too worried about in a Regional Final.
 
So the count of folks that think UCLA should overtake UConn for overall #1 seed is now 3 - Antonelli, McGraw, and T Goodman. Good grief.
 
HHS with an update. Charlie will probably do it after midnight, so I'll post it tomorrow.
herhoopstats.com

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball 2026 | Her Hoop Stats

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats
herhoopstats.com herhoopstats.com
We have an order switch up on the No. 1 seed line after Texas takes down South Carolina in the SEC championship. The Longhorns are now the third overall seed and get to stay close to home for regionals. Duke also replaces Louisville on the No. 2 seed line with the ACC trophy. Elsewhere, West Virginia moves into the top-16 with the Big 12 title and South Dakota State winning the Summit League keeps the bubble safe for now. UCLA, Rhode Island, High Point and Samford also punched tickets to the big dance. Four more spots are on the line tomorrow.​
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​
1773016713391.jpeg
 
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Changed up the title of this thread, as not al lot is going to change with the top 16 at this point (dooooomed).
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: How the committee's top-16 reveal rippled through the field

Saturday, the committee revealed the top-16 teams that will host early round games. North Carolina moved in.
www.espn.com

Championship Sunday brought some Bracketology shake-up. Texas’ dominant victory over South Carolina pushed the Longhorns past the Gamecocks for the No. 3 overall seed. That means Texas shifts to the closer Fort Worth Regional, and South Carolina will have to play its potential Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Sacramento. TCU’s loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 final opened a door for a change on the No. 2 seed line. Duke walked through it with a second straight ACC tournament title and the final No. 2 seed. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, moved into the top 16 and should host first- and second-round NCAA tournament games after winning their first Big 12 tournament championship since 2017.​

WVU in and Kentucky out of the top 16. Duke and TCU switch 2 and 3 seeds.

1773052057918.jpeg


LAST FOUR BYES - Last teams to skip the First Four round - Iowa State, USC, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN - Last teams to make the field overall - Virginia, Arizona St, Nebraska, Richmond
FIRST FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut - BYU, Utah, N Dakota St, Texas A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT - Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut - Mississippi St, Stanford, Kansas St, Indiana
 
Despite yesterday's loss, I prefer those matchups in the four region (Iowa, TCU, Minnesota) over what Texas is handed in the three (Duke, Ohio State, Oklahoma). I think we can similarly exploit Iowa as UCLA did and we match up well with TCU. I don't know enough about Minnesota to have an opinion on that matchup, so I would have to get myself educated on that one if it came to be.

The only negative is that we would play UConn in the final four, so that would be a brutal and exhausting game. The only consolation is that UConn hasn't played any of the other title contenders (UCLA, Texas, LSU IMO) so we could possibly expose a weakness that only a title contender could.
 
So this morning BYU is the first team out. Both Nebraska and Richmond remain as the last four in.

I'm wondering if Charlie cream is using the Huskers and spiders is placeholders because neither in my view should be dancing.

However Delaney Gibbs and the Cougars definitely should be dancing.

Edit

So this whole Richmond and Nebraska placement has really had my head spinning.

Based on what I saw yesterday does the loser of the Mountain West championship have a case to be made? Or even San diego? Are either one of those two options more deserving than Richmond?

What about the WCC? I'm headed over there for the semis and if chalk holds what about the loser of a Gonzaga LMU championship game? What is Scott gets his Beavers into the championship game and losesI

know I'd love to see Loree Payne dance. If the Broncos upset Gonzaga do they have a case regardless of you outcome of the championship game?

I'm getting a little Rodney Dangerfield about the WCC and Mountain West

I'm also wondering if anyone has any insight about the placement of ASU by Creme. Are they actually going to College Park? The matchup against Virginia would be interesting
 
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www.espn.com

Women's Champ Week takeaways: No. 1 seeds and NCAA hosts set

A week before Selection Sunday, which teams should be worried (Tennessee) or encouraged (Notre Dame)? And what's the state of the bubble?
www.espn.com www.espn.com

What were the biggest things we learned on Championship Sunday? Which teams might have benefited most from Champ Week so far? Which résumés took a hit? Let's take a deeper look at Champ Week, how it will shape the bracket and what can be expected on Selection Sunday.​
​
Should UConn or UCLA be the overall No. 1? The Bruins' metrics -- 18 Quad 1 wins, the top wins above bubble number, the best strength of schedule -- suggest they should be first. However, the Huskies have sat in that spot all season and remain the nation's lone unbeaten team. More significantly, the NCAA selection committee put UConn at No. 1 overall in both of its top-16 reveals this season. At the time of each of those announcements -- Feb. 14 and March 1 -- UCLA also held an advantage in those metrics -- and the committee still went with the Huskies.​
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Nothing has changed on that front. Essentially, the committee has already spoken here, and UConn has been the consistent choice. The only element that has changed: The Bruins are now the Big Ten regular-season and tournament champions, with a Big Ten tournament finals performance that was near perfect, beating Iowa by 51 points. If the committee decides to change its mind and flip UConn and UCLA, that will have to be the rationale, not the numbers.​
 
Lady Vols holding steady at that #8 Seed. Meanwhile, North Dakota State are on the outside looking through the window.
 
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www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: How the committee's top-16 reveal rippled through the field

Saturday, the committee revealed the top-16 teams that will host early round games. North Carolina moved in.
www.espn.com

No update to top 16, so no new grid. No changes to the groups of four below:

LAST FOUR BYES (Last teams to skip the First Four round) - Iowa State, USC, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN (Last teams to make the field overall) - Virginia, Arizona St, Nebraska, Richmond
FIRST FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut) - BYU, Utah, N Dakota St, Texas A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut) - Mississippi St, Stanford, Kansas St, Indiana
 
BRS24 said:
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: How the committee's top-16 reveal rippled through the field

Saturday, the committee revealed the top-16 teams that will host early round games. North Carolina moved in.
www.espn.com

No update to top 16, so no new grid. No changes to the groups of four below:

LAST FOUR BYES (Last teams to skip the First Four round) - Iowa State, USC, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN (Last teams to make the field overall) - Virginia, Arizona St, Nebraska, Richmond
FIRST FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 69-72 that missed the cut) - BYU, Utah, N Dakota St, Texas A&M
NEXT FOUR OUT (Teams ranked 73-76 that missed the cut) - Mississippi St, Stanford, Kansas St, Indiana
Expand ...
And here comes my reckless at flea that the committee considers the full body of work at BYU as well as the sour taste left on the court in the final games by the Conhuskers and the Spiders.

Delaney Gibb and Nate's have demonstrated that they're danceworthy.

Well Charlie Creme seems confident as you will face off with Virginia and College Park I think the fans would really rather see ASU face off against BYU in fort Worth.

I know I know it violates all types of conventions and guidelines. But I know Molly Miller would like another crack at them
 
Committee can consider whatever they want, but when it comes down to 2 teams that are close, I think that if head-to-head is on the table, it should be the #1 consideration.

Doesn't mean I'd leave ASU out, but BYU > ASU.
 
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