Bracketology - Week of Feb 10 | The Boneyard

Bracketology - Week of Feb 10

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BRS24

LisaG
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www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: How the committee's top-16 reveal rippled through the field

Saturday, the committee revealed the top-16 teams that will host early round games. North Carolina moved in.
www.espn.com

Virginia’s much-needed home win over Notre Dame and Stanford’s unexpected loss at Georgia Tech on Sunday created something we’ve never seen in the NCAA bracket or Bracketology: All four teams in the Last Four In are from one conference. Virginia Tech and Clemson join the Cardinal and the Cavaliers to form what would be a mini-ACC tournament in the First Four. The reality of this happening on Selection Sunday is slim; separation will occur in the coming weeks as these teams go head-to-head. Stanford welcomes Virginia and Virginia Tech this week. The Cardinal also will see Clemson at home in the regular-season finale -- the same day the Cavaliers and the Hokies will meet for the second time this season. With Colorado and Arizona State right behind this quartet as the first two teams out, the Big 12 also will have a say in the field’s final teams. For now, the ACC is dominating the bubble.​

Maryland back in and Tenn out of the top 16. Villanova last four bye. Herhoopstats also posted an update today (in orange). Hid some rows as we're starting to get crazy.

1770747663349.jpeg


12 -Big Ten
11 -SEC
10 - ACC
7 - Big 12
2 - Big East
 
The metrics suggest that the demotion of Tennessee is an overreaction. That said, there's something not quite right in the land of the checkerboard. To invoke a vastly overused phrase, the team may be at a crossroads. They will have a players only meeting and they will either get their act together, and become the most dangerous 4 or 5 seed in the tournament, Or the meeting will be a bust, they will struggle against Missouri and lose to everyone other than TAMU and be in serious danger of not learning an invite. I predict they will get it together. They may still lose more than they win of their remaining games but they will limp into the tournament and be dangerous
 
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NCAA Dashboard (2/10/2026) appended to ESPN Bracketology (2/10/2026) to provide insight on:
  • (a) the Hypothesis Testing continuum of the 37 At-Large (Type &1 = 2) Qualifiers;
  • (b) the 68-team Bracketed S-Curve (Overall Seed (OSeed)).
The NCAA procedures for (a), S-Curve and (b) are here.

&1 Type = 1 (Automatic Qualifier) and 2 (At-large Qualifier).

IMG_9216.jpeg


2026 WCBB NCAAT Bracketology Teams by Overall Seeding
  • Number in () is the NET on the day on/before the Bracketology date.
  • AQ means “Automatic Qualifier” for a Conference.
IMG_9217.jpeg
 
This current bracketology has Utah as one of the last four with both ASU and Colorado on the outside looking in. As we all know last night ASU completed a sweep of Utah. Of the three teams I think Colorado probably has the strongest resume with ASU close second .... At least as far as the Big 12 is concerned.

Ultimately I'll be surprised if Utah dances and either Colorado or ASU doesn't
 
Any thoughts on Nebraska?

How about Stanford?
 
.-.
www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: How the committee's top-16 reveal rippled through the field

Saturday, the committee revealed the top-16 teams that will host early round games. North Carolina moved in.
www.espn.com

For the first time this season, there is a shake-up on the top line. Propelled by its 86-70 win over Texas on Thursday, Vanderbilt unseated the Longhorns and is now the fourth No. 1 seed. Change seemed unlikely heading into Thursday. Texas had an advantage across most metrics: NET, wins above bubble, strength of schedule, Quad 1 wins, common opponents (the Longhorns are 3-2 against South Carolina, Ole Miss and LSU; Vanderbilt is 1-2). Texas might have been able to withstand a narrow defeat on the road. Instead, the Commodores were dominant from start to finish and were the better team by a wide margin. It’s impossible to argue against the Commodores’ claim to a No. 1 seed now. They might also be the story of the season. Vanderbilt, picked to finish seventh in the SEC in the preseason, is now one of the four best teams in the country.​

Top 16 remain the same, however Vandy now a #1 seed, Texas drops to #2, and SC also moves into 3rd #1 seed spot. Villanova still a last four bye.

1770994274706.jpeg


12 -Big Ten
11 -SEC
9 - ACC
8 - Big 12
2 - Big East
 
visitingcock said:
The first NCAA reveal will be Saturday Night from 8:00-8:40 on ABC preceding the SCar at LSU game (the result of which can affect the reveal)
Expand ...
PS - I was incorrect in a prior week's post that there wouldn't be any reveals before the tournament.
 
visitingcock said:
What/ How do you do that. I'm perfect
Expand ...
Buckaroo Banzai: Perfect Tommy, give her your jacket.

Perfect Tommy: Why MY jacket?

Buckaroo: Because you're perfect.

Perfect Tommy: Okay, you've got a point. . .
 
visitingcock said:
The first NCAA reveal will be Saturday Night from 8:00-8:40 on ABC preceding the SCar at LSU game (the result of which can affect the reveal)
Expand ...
What is everyone expecting here? I think this could be a pretty fascinating reveal tbh.
 
Stagnant said:
What is everyone expecting here? I think this could be a pretty fascinating reveal tbh.
Expand ...
I'm expecting to be POed that it was on Saturday night before a bunch of consequential games. (e. g., South Carolina-LSU and Texas-Tennessee.) I guess they want to put it in network prime time, where it would be relegated to ESPN on Monday night.
 
.-.
First reveal folks!
1771162749538.jpeg

www.espn.com

Women's Bracketology: How the committee's top-16 reveal rippled through the field

Saturday, the committee revealed the top-16 teams that will host early round games. North Carolina moved in.
www.espn.com

In 2015, the NCAA selection committee began in-season reveals of its top 16 seeds. Each one provides a clue as to how the committee views the criteria. Saturday’s reveal leaned into head-to-head. As we wrote here Friday, Texas held nearly every metric advantage over Vanderbilt for the final No. 1 seed. But the Commodores’ decisive victory over the Longhorns on Thursday put Vanderbilt on our top line. The committee agreed, and head-to-head was a theme throughout the top 16. Maryland was ahead of Michigan State, Ohio State was higher than TCU and Ole Miss topped Oklahoma. Each won those particular matchups. The exception: Iowa slotted two places behind OSU despite beating the Buckeyes by 21. That merely proves head-to-head is important, and sometimes critical, but it isn’t the answer to every decision. The Buckeyes’ slight advantage over Iowa in Quad 1 wins, WAB and recent performance appeared to carry more weight.​

Some flippity flops of 2-4 seeds and regions. TCU moves from 4 to 3 and MSU from 3 to 4. Did some hidin' of rows so we're not scrolling endlessly.

1771162223297.jpeg


12 -Big Ten
11 -SEC
9 - ACC
7 - Big 12
2 - Big East
2 - Ivy
 
Never too early to start the debate. Utah is in the tournament ASU first four out. ASU swept Utah
 
2026 WCBB NCAAT Bracketology Teams by Overall Seeding:
  • Number in () is the NET on the day on/before the Bracketology date.
  • AQ means “Automatic Qualifier” for a Conference.
Note: Texas (5 on S-Curve per ESPN) and 7 on Bracketed S-Curve:
  • “III. Principles for Placing Teams into the Championship Bracket”
  • “Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regional pods if they are seeded on the first four lines.” NCAA
IMG_9250.jpeg


NCAA Dashboard (2/14/2026) appended to ESPN Bracketology (2/15/2026) to provide insight on:
  • (a) the Hypothesis Testing continuum of the 37 At-Large (Type &1 = 2) Qualifiers;
  • (b) the 68-team Bracketed S-Curve (Overall Seed (OSeed)).
The NCAA procedures for (a), S-Curve and (b) are here.

&1 Type = 1 (Automatic Qualifier) and 2 (At-large Qualifier).

IMG_9251.jpeg


Top 20 Overall Seed | Remaining Schedule
 
azfan said:
Never too early to start the debate. Utah is in the tournament ASU first four out. ASU swept Utah
Expand ...
Utah's wins over TCU and West Virginia, two teams that are battling for the top spot in the conference, are more impressive than ASU's best wins. Zero Quad 1 wins this late into the season isn't good for a bubble team.
 
WBBTakeover said:
Utah's wins over TCU and West Virginia, two teams that are battling for the top spot in the conference, are more impressive than ASU's best wins. Zero Quad 1 wins this late into the season isn't good for a bubble team.
Expand ...
Good point Was it Mark Twain who talked about statistics?

Certainly I can appreciate those metrics.

To channel a SNL character I'm just a humble fan.

If you sweep a teen with a strong record that is beat them twice once at their place and wants your place how do you weigh that against the remainder of the two teams schedules?
 
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.-.
azfan said:
Good point Was it Mark Twain who talked about statistics?

Certainly I can appreciate those metrics.

To channel a SNL character I'm just a humble fan.

If you sweep a teen with a strong record that is beat them twice once at their place and wants your place how do you weigh that against the remainder of the two teams schedules?
Expand ...
The head-to-head over Utah will be a factor if both teams are close. What would really help Arizona State is a win over Iowa State or Texas Tech (or both).

At the same time, Utah cannot pick up another Q1 win. They have to finish out the season shaky (so far, they've lost 3 of their last five).
 
Come tomorrow the new poll should be:

1) UConn
2) UCLA
3) South Carolina
4) Texas
5) Vanderbilt
6) Michigan
7) Duke
8) Louisville
9) LSU
10) Oklahoma
11) Baylor
12) Ohio State
13) Kentucky
14) Maryland
15) TCU
16) Michigan State
 
WBBTakeover said:
The head-to-head over Utah will be a factor if both teams are close. What would really help Arizona State is a win over Iowa State or Texas Tech (or both).

At the same time, Utah cannot pick up another Q1 win. They have to finish out the season shaky (so far, they've lost 3 of their last five).
Expand ...
The second national broadcast today featured Utah at Oklahoma State. ASU beat both teams - Utah twice.....

With a defeat, Utah's 10th with a whole bunch of turnovers and freshman point guards Sneed fouling out in the third quarter, I'm wondering now if bracketology would put ASU in at this point and drop Utah out?

This is one of the best parts of the season where these speculations about who dances and who doesn't accelerates.

The announcers for this game speculated that the Cowgirls have a chance to make the round of 16. If that's speculation is grounded in reality and the committee remembers ASU beat this team......

Does Molly Miller get to dance with her squad?

With a win in Ames later this week it's a definite yes. If Audi Crook and company prevail I'd say that ASU certainly should move ahead of Utah among all the bubble teams.

0SU Arena really odd. All the floor seats are bleachers with theater style seating in the upper deck. One would think it would be theater seating throughout especially with the dollars flowing around in Oklahoma.
 
azfan said:
The second national broadcast today featured Utah at Oklahoma State. ASU beat both teams - Utah twice.....

With a defeat, Utah's 10th with a whole bunch of turnovers and freshman point guards Sneed fouling out in the third quarter, I'm wondering now if bracketology would put ASU in at this point and drop Utah out?

This is one of the best parts of the season where these speculations about who dances and who doesn't accelerates.

The announcers for this game speculated that the Cowgirls have a chance to make the round of 16. If that's speculation is grounded in reality and the committee remembers ASU beat this team......

Does Molly Miller get to dance with her squad?

With a win in Ames later this week it's a definite yes. If Audi Crook and company prevail I'd say that ASU certainly should move ahead of Utah among all the bubble teams.

0SU Arena really odd. All the floor seats are bleachers with theater style seating in the upper deck. One would think it would be theater seating throughout especially with the dollars flowing around in Oklahoma.
Expand ...
Head-to-head is only one criterion for the committee to consider. Having quality wins is still important. Right now, ASU has zero Q1 wins. The Oklahoma State win looks good, but it was only a Q2. Utah, on the other hand, has two Q1 wins. That's still significant.

Quality wins (who you beat and where you beat them) matter. It's one of the reasons why Stanford, 5-9 in ACC play, has been able to hold on to a positive position with respect to the NCAAs/NCAA bubble for as long as they have (that will change tomorrow, however). I don't like the quad system (because it's heavily reliant on NET, and some conferences have been able to successfully manipulate NET ratings), but it's what we have to evaluate these wins.
 
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WBBTakeover said:
Head-to-head is only one criterion for the committee to consider. Having quality wins is still important. Right now, ASU has zero Q1 wins. The Oklahoma State win looks good, but it was only a Q2. Utah, on the other hand, has two Q1 wins. That's still significant.

Quality wins (who you beat and where you beat them) matter. It's one of the reasons why Stanford, 5-9 in ACC play, has been able to hold on to a positive position with respect to the NCAAs/NCAA bubble for as long as they have (that will change tomorrow, however). I don't like the quad system (because it's heavily reliant on NET, and some conferences have been able to successfully manipulate NET ratings), but it's what we have to evaluate these wins.
Expand ...
Based on this analysis I'm going to be disappointed and Molly will be dancing at the Wnit or Wbit if the Devils aren't able to pull off the win in Ames. Oy

This will be a shame especially if ASU finishes above the Utes in the final B12 standings.

Wonder if there's any scenario in which ASU and Utah play in the B12 tournament and ASU picks up a third victory over the Utes....lol
 
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