Bracketology - Week 16

[BRS24]

Gee thanks Charlie. Figured I was done for the day with the other spreadsheets, lol. Note that the markings showing team movement is from CC's bracket on Friday. I kept the official committee one plain. Kentucky in and Ole Miss out of the top 16. Please forgive any formatting issues as I'm herding 3 grandkids ...

Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 2, Big East - 2

 

[BRS24]

Surprise, surprise. CC updated the bracket from yesterday. Kentucky and Kansas St swap 3 and 4 spots. No changes to the Bubble teams and conference #s from the post above.

 

[MSGRET]

Currently UConn is #1 in the NET rankings with South Carolina, Texas and ND numbers 2, 3 and 4. If UConn continues to stay in the top 4 I don't see how they wouldn't be one of the top seeds.

 

[Bone Dog]

I get most of them, especially USC as 8th on the S curve. Their win over Washington was not inspiring even though the win over UCLA was gritty. But LSU as the 5 on the curve looks a bit too generous to me. Same with TCU at the 6 spot. Both of them should be bumped down behind USC and UConn. Of course, this is entirely based on my eyeballs, not any rigorous analysis.

 

[jake0414]

I get most of them, especially USC as 8th on the S curve. Their win over Washington was not inspiring even though the win over UCLA was gritty. But LSU as the 5 on the curve looks a bit too generous to me. Same with TCU at the 6 spot. Both of them should be bumped down behind USC and UConn. Of course, this is entirely based on my eyeballs, not any rigorous analysis.

I think Creme has the five to eight seeds as USC, UConn, LSU, and TCU. So LSU is seventh. He swapped LSU and TCU to keep from having two SEC teams as the #1 and #2 in the same bracket in accordance with NCAA seeding guidelines.

 

[Bone Dog]

I think Creme has the five to eight seeds as USC, UConn, LSU, and TCU. So LSU is seventh. He swapped LSU and TCU to keep from having two SEC teams as the #1 and #2 in the same bracket in accordance with NCAA seeding guidelines.

Am I misreading the chart? Your way makes more sense.

 

[Plebe]

Currently UConn is #1 in the NET rankings with South Carolina, Texas and ND numbers 2, 3 and 4. If UConn continues to stay in the top 4 I don't see how they wouldn't be one of the top seeds.

NET doesn't determine the seeding. It's not designed to do so, and it doesn't function that way in practice.

 

[Plebe]

I get most of them, especially USC as 8th on the S curve. Their win over Washington was not inspiring even though the win over UCLA was gritty. But LSU as the 5 on the curve looks a bit too generous to me. Same with TCU at the 6 spot. Both of them should be bumped down behind USC and UConn. Of course, this is entirely based on my eyeballs, not any rigorous analysis.

How are you interpreting USC as 8th on the S curve?

USC is projected as the 2 seed in South Carolina's regional, which is regional #4 (i.e. SoCar is the projected #4 overall seed). USC is currently projected at #5 overall, as indicated by @jake0410 above.

 

[packwrap]

I think Creme has the five to eight seeds as USC, UConn, LSU, and TCU. So LSU is seventh. He swapped LSU and TCU to keep from having two SEC teams as the #1 and #2 in the same bracket in accordance with NCAA seeding guidelines.

Exactly, this is also what committee did in reveal 1.0, that now seems already 10 years old. They actually communicated a 1-16 in order, and then showed how they were put in brackets to avoid conference overlap.

 

[Bone Dog]

How are you interpreting USC as 8th on the S curve?

USC is projected as the 2 seed in South Carolina's regional, which is regional #4 (i.e. SoCar is the projected #4 overall seed). USC is currently projected at #5 overall, as indicated by @jake0410 above.

Already addressed above including acknowledging @jake0414’s correction.

 

[BRS24]

A few updates for today, well, actually yesterday, but there was some adulting to do ...

First, here's CC's update. Duke, UNC, and NCSU all swap 3 seed position.

The past two days are a perfect example of why there has been little movement in and out of the field. The list of teams with a legitimate claim to a spot was already shorter than typical; then, those just on the outside looking in (Saint Joseph's, Colorado, George Mason) lost. Which is why Virginia Tech can absorb a home loss to Stanford -- the Hokies' third setback in three games -- and remain a bubble team. And there hasn't been a team that has been playing better right now, or that has a better résumé or a solid recent win to take the spot Virginia Tech left vulnerable. So, the situation now leaves the door open for bid stealers that don't have a truly tournament-worthy case. Consider UNLV, Columbia, James Madison and Fairfield: In most years, these teams would have no chance of making the NCAA tournament without their conferences' automatic bids. This is not most years on the bubble.​

Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 2, Big East - 2

 

[BRS24]

Here's Schindler's update on The Athletic. Alabama is in and Ole Miss out of the top 16.

The last No. 1 seed​

​

Southern California snags the final spot on the No. 1 seed line after the chaos of last weekend.​

​

Given how much weight the selection committee put on the total resume, I toyed with South Carolina maintaining a spot on the top line. However, my sense is that its 29-point loss to UConn will likely drop it. The Gamecocks still have a tremendous tournament resume and could wind up with a No. 1 seed, with games against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Kentucky remaining to close SEC play.​

​

But such a thorough drubbing is a big hit to the dominance that the selection committee has valued for top-line teams.​

​

What about UConn?​

​

A No. 1 seed isn’t out of the question if the Huskies win out the Big East in dominant fashion (which I expect for the remainder of the regular season and the conference tournament), but they’ll need some luck with results in the SEC and Big Ten. With head-to-head losses against Notre Dame and USC, I envision that being a separator for the final spot at the moment, as the Trojans take hold.​

Lastly, HerHoopStats update:

The committee gave its first look at the top-16 seeds on Sunday. Plenty has changed since then, particularly on the top two seed lines after an eventful week. We'll get another look at the top-16 on Thursday as the regular season comes to a close and March nears. UCLA, Texas, Notre Dame, South Carolina, USC and UConn are all still in the race for the No. 1 seeds. Elsewhere, Ole Miss and Baylor are sitting on the No. 5 seed line creeping towards the opportunity to host.​

​

 

[oldude]

Currently UConn is #1 in the NET rankings with South Carolina, Texas and ND numbers 2, 3 and 4. If UConn continues to stay in the top 4 I don't see how they wouldn't be one of the top seeds.

One thing that should help UConn’s case would be 2 wins over now ranked Creighton in the regular season and hopefully the final of the conference tournament. Creighton hopefully wins the rest of their games in the BE against everyone not named UConn.

 

[DefenseBB]

One thing that should help UConn’s case would be 2 wins over now ranked Creighton in the regular season and hopefully the final of the conference tournament. Creighton hopefully wins the rest of their games in the BE against everyone not named UConn.

My interpretation is you think a win over Creighton will help our claim for a #1 seed. IT WON'T. Let me bring the evidence as supplied by our fine poster @Vowelguy from the previous thread on the subject. NET is a tool as are Quad 1 records, which, in my opinion are two of the most useful tools. the fact is UConn is only 4-3 (soon to be 5-3) which pales in comparison to the other contenders for the #1 seed. How does our 5 wins match against 8, 9 or 10 wins? They don't. Yes, I know our 3 losses were to #4, #2 and #6 but that still pales in the win column. The fact that our pathetic conference can't field better teams, hurts our opportunities. Overall, I am not worried about the #1 or #2 seed as we have shown the capability to play with the elite team, which a week ago, I wasn't so sure of.

Basically, stop perseverating over this, focus on the team gaining consistent play with development from Jana and consistent scoring from Azzi.
From VowelGuy (BTW-thanks for this)
Quad 1 Record (undefeated against Q2-Q4 unless noted)

Texas 11-2 (NET #3)
SoCar 10-3 (NET #2)
UCLA 9-1 (NET #5)
USC 8-2 (NET #6)

ND 5-2 (NET #4)
LSU 5-2 (NET #10)
TCU 5-3 (NET #9)
UConn 4-3 (NET #1)

 

[Plebe]

My interpretation is you think a win over Creighton will help our claim for a #1 seed. IT WON'T. Let me bring the evidence as supplied by our fine poster @Vowelguy from the previous thread on the subject. NET is a tool as are Quad 1 records, which, in my opinion are two of the most useful tools. the fact is UConn is only 4-3 (soon to be 5-3) which pales in comparison to the other contenders for the #1 seed. How does our 5 wins match against 8, 9 or 10 wins? They don't.

Also, to put an even finer point on this, our home game vs. Creighton would not be a Q1 per the current NET rankings, as the Q1 range for home games is 1-25 (Creighton is now #30). Unless Creighton can climb 5 spots by selection day, a neutral-court game in the BET fiinal is our only realistic chance of another Quad 1 game left on the schedule.

 

[oldude]

My interpretation is you think a win over Creighton will help our claim for a #1 seed. IT WON'T. Let me bring the evidence as supplied by our fine poster @Vowelguy from the previous thread on the subject. NET is a tool as are Quad 1 records, which, in my opinion are two of the most useful tools. the fact is UConn is only 4-3 (soon to be 5-3) which pales in comparison to the other contenders for the #1 seed. How does our 5 wins match against 8, 9 or 10 wins? They don't. Yes, I know our 3 losses were to #4, #2 and #6 but that still pales in the win column. The fact that our pathetic conference can't field better teams, hurts our opportunities. Overall, I am not worried about the #1 or #2 seed as we have shown the capability to play with the elite team, which a week ago, I wasn't so sure of.

Basically, stop perseverating over this, focus on the team gaining consistent play with development from Jana and consistent scoring from Azzi.
From VowelGuy (BTW-thanks for this)
Quad 1 Record (undefeated against Q2-Q4 unless noted)

Texas 11-2 (NET #3)
SoCar 10-3 (NET #2)
UCLA 9-1 (NET #5)
USC 8-2 (NET #6)

ND 5-2 (NET #4)
LSU 5-2 (NET #10)
TCU 5-3 (NET #9)
UConn 4-3 (NET #1)

I see you’re pretty fired up about this. So while you are figuring out the math, add in the fact that USC & UCLA still have at least 2 losses to come between them (head to head & conference tournament) and TX, LSU & SC also have at least 2 losses to come between them.

Will it matter in the final tournament seeding? Absolutely.

Will it matter for UConn? We’ll see.

Finally, this is the BY. All of us can focus on whatever interests each of us, and ignore whatever doesn’t.

 

[HuskyNan]

Also, to put an even finer point on this, our home game vs. Creighton would not be a Q1 per the current NET rankings, as the Q1 range for home games is 1-25 (Creighton is now #30). Unless Creighton can climb 5 spots by selection day, a neutral-court game in the BET fiinal is our only realistic chance of another Quad 1 game left on the schedule.

It’s an away game, which makes it Quad 1

College basketball's NET rankings, explained

Here's everything you need to know about college basketball's NET ranking system.

www.ncaa.com

 

[Plebe]

It’s an away game, which makes it Quad 1

College basketball's NET rankings, explained

Here's everything you need to know about college basketball's NET ranking system.

www.ncaa.com

View attachment 107193

I was referring to our upcoming games. I thought we already played at Creighton, and our next game against them will be at home. But I could be wrong.

 

[HuskyNan]

I was referring to our upcoming games. I thought we already played at Creighton, and our next game against them will be at home. But I could be wrong.

You right, it’s in CT. But Creighton is #30 NET, still quad 1

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA women's college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today/WBCA and NCAA committee.

www.ncaa.com

 

[Plebe]

You right, it’s in CT. But Creighton is #30 NET, still quad 1

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA women's college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today/WBCA and NCAA committee.

www.ncaa.com

I believe you're looking at the men's quad cutoffs.

The 2024-25 NET rank quadrant ranges for women's basketball were based on the expected winning percentage versus a given opponent rank (in NET) with respect to game location, across all games. The ranges will be classified as quadrant one (home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45); quadrant two (home 26-55, neutral 36-65 and away 46-80); quadrant three (home 56-90, neutral 66-105 and away 81-130) and quadrant four (home 91-plus, neutral 106-plus and away 131-plus).​

DI Women’s Basketball Committee OKs quadrant-based team sheets, complete seed list - NCAA.org

At its summer meeting this week in Austin, Texas, the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Committee approved a move to quadrant-based team sheets in 2024-25 and to

www.ncaa.org

 

[DefenseBB]

I see you’re pretty fired up about this. So while you are figuring out the math, add in the fact that USC & UCLA still have at least 2 losses to come between them (head to head & conference tournament) and TX, LSU & SC also have at least 2 losses to come between them.

Will it matter in the final tournament seeding? Absolutely.

Will it matter for UConn? We’ll see.

Finally, this is the BY. All of us can focus on whatever interests each of us, and ignore whatever doesn’t.

I am truly in awe of your denialism and fanacisn that no matter how many posters explain the logic and protocol you insist on potential that simply does not exist in this situation. Let’s follow your premise 10 wins UCLA will have even against 3 losses somehow still beats our 5-3 record…or SoCal with their 10 wins and only 4 losses (And a win over us) will also mean more than our 5-3 record (That includes a win over Creaighton in the BET as a Quad 1 win as the win at home will not be.

Under no circumstances can we leap past UCLA or SoCal. Maybe if Texas implodes against Georgia, Miss State or Florida but that means we would have leap over ND who also has a win over us.

Do you not see the logic?

 

[oldude]

I am truly in awe of your denialism and fanacisn that no matter how many posters explain the logic and protocol you insist on potential that simply does not exist in this situation. Let’s follow your premise 10 wins UCLA will have even against 3 losses somehow still beats our 5-3 record…or SoCal with their 10 wins and only 4 losses (And a win over us) will also mean more than our 5-3 record (That includes a win over Creaighton in the BET as a Quad 1 win as the win at home will not be.

Under no circumstances can we leap past UCLA or SoCal. Maybe if Texas implodes against Georgia, Miss State or Florida but that means we would have leap over ND who also has a win over us.

Do you not see the logic?

DBB,
Charlie Creme and others believe that UConn has a chance to make it to the #1 seed line, albeit an outside chance. I’m not willing to throw in the towel until all the games are played and the tournament bracket is announced.

While you certainly have the right to your opinion, I am not quite sure while you are so passionate about targeting my opinion for criticism. It’s my opinion. You don’t agree with it. I get it. End of discussion.

 

[Vowelguy]

The committee has been clear that high quality losses don’t hurt your resume.

 

[Centerstream]

DBB,
It’s my opinion. You don’t agree with it. I get it. End of discussion.

Here, here!!!!