Bracketology reality

[campcalhoun2009]

We're really not in trouble when you look at the underlying numbers.

Lunardi released his newest bracket today. We're a 9 seed with about 14 at large teams below us in the rankings.

We have the #1 SOS, 5 top 50 wins (14th most), 8 top 100 wins (T 11th most).

If we get a win vs. Marq or Cuse we really only need to go 3-3 to make the tournament and win the Tuesday BET game. 2 wins in the Big East Tourney (assuming a Tuesday game is the 1st win) and we're locked in. We probably don't even need that much.

The bubble is really weak which only helps our cause.

 

[djct1999]

agreed..... we really would have to play ourselves out of the tourney. if we finish 9-9, we are a lock.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Wins over Florida State and Harvard are looking very good, and Arkansas was much better than expected this season. More importantly, November and December were such a bloodbath for the major conference bubble teams, that there are a lot more bids available than there would be in a typical season. As bad as it has been this year, the Big East is still the #2 RPI conference this year. That says a lot more about the leagues below the Big East than it does about the Big East.

UConn has to just stop the free fall, and we will get a bid.

 

[RayRay34]

Disagree. I think they are on the outside looking in right now. They need a strong finish and/or make a deep run in the BET.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Disagree. I think they are on the outside looking in right now. They need a strong finish and/or make a deep run in the BET.

Give me 4 teams that Lunardi has on the outside looking in that would get bids before UConn. You realize that there is not some objective standards that teams have to meet to get in the Dance, they just have to be better than most of the other bubble teams.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

Disagree. I think they are on the outside looking in right now. They need a strong finish and/or make a deep run in the BET.

Name 40 teams who have a better resume than UConn.

Not possible. Watching this team, common sense says that they should not be a tournament team. But taking a step back and trying to find other teams who should be in ahead of UConn, it isn't the case.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Disagree. I think they are on the outside looking in right now. They need a strong finish and/or make a deep run in the BET.

Every single bracketologist has Uconn comfortably in right now. Lunardi has us as a 9 seed as of today. I looked at 5-6 others and haven't found us any lower than a 10.

There are 37 at-large bids to distribute - and there just aren't 37 teams with better resumes than ours right now.

 

[SubbaBub]

9-9 is the target with one more top 25 win. An 8-10 or worse finish would be troublesome regardless of SOS/RPI rankings. Recent play does weigh heavily.

Plus, I wouldn't put it past the NCAA to have Uconn suffer the indignity of playing in the First Round if they had the chance.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk

 

[huskymagic]

Alll we have to do is get to 9-9 in the big east and beat the teams were supposed to beat like depaul, providence, villanova, pitt, and one game against Marquette and or syracuse and we will be in.

Let's worry about depaul first we dont want to overlook them. Very winnable games against depaul and marquette at home.

 

[Prezidint]

Let's not forget the following, very, very pertinent facts:

1. We're UConn. We're a big draw. Not quite Duke, but better than most teams.
I was talking to a judge today in PA. She asked where I went to law school. I said UConn. She said, I can see why you're so competitive, given UConn's sports teams.

2. The NCAA is a business, and they want to make money.

We probably get a 5-10 place boost based on the mere fact that we're a hell of a lot more interesting in the 1st and 2nd rounds, and all the way through everybody's bracket, than - whomever. The Long Island College Islanders. Western Mississippi Rednecks. Southern California Beachcombers.

We give guys like Gottlieb something to talk about for a couple weeks - "Ohio State looks great as a 1 seed, but you see UConn as the 8 seed and they're a sleeper for sure."

Bank it.

 

[Ts5034]

i think getting to .500 in the league is the ticket. Weird things can happen in the selection room with a team that has a losing record in their conference. If they finish 8-10 or worse i wouldnt like the fact that they have to do some damage in the BET to get back in the mix.

 

[HeGotGame]

Disagree. I think they are on the outside looking in right now. They need a strong finish and/or make a deep run in the BET.

Love the uniformed proclamations without offering a shred of evidence to back up his point.

With our remaining schedule it would take an absolute cliff dive to not make the tournament.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Alll we have to do is get to 9-9 in the big east and beat the teams were supposed to beat like depaul, providence, villanova, pitt, and one game against Marquette and or syracuse and we will be in.

Let's worry about depaul first we dont want to overlook them. Very winnable games against depaul and marquette at home.

The mental challenge here is in imaging that this team, which has gone 1-6 in its last 7, will now go 5-1 over the next six, with two games against very good competition (Marq and Cuse). Pitt is not an easy game. I know that based on the opposition it isn't impossible, but it doesn't feel likely. It seems more likely that we finish 8-11 at best.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

Weird things can happen in the selection room with a team that has a losing record in their conference.

Especially when the head of the selection committe is someone who we just fired unceremoniously less than 8 months ago. While Hathaway isn't going to go out of his way to punish UConn...I think it is fair to say he won't be doing us any favors either (and he is supposed to be our biggest supporter in the room given his 'Big East representation'). I know he won't be in the room when discussing UConn specifically, but just sayin'.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Love the uniformed proclamations without offering a shred of evidence to back up his point.

With our remaining schedule it would take an absolute cliff dive to not make the tournament.

We already dove off the cliff....the question is whether we have a parachute or can avoid the rocks.

 

[Druken Friar]

9-9 is the cut line unless they make a run in the Big East tourney. Six games left, the schedule left is favorable, 4 likely wins, 1 probable loss, 1 toss up; DePaul, Marquette (toss up), Villanova, Syracuse (tough one), PC & Pitt. The Syracuse game is at home, the last game was close until the last 4 minutes. If they get hot, a 10-8 record is very possible.

The unofficial RPI is 24 right now, more than good enough to get a bid.

 

[Matt (Chicago)]

I'm thinking that Pitt will be tougher than most folks believe... with Woodall back they're a different team... they always get pumped up to play UConn... however if we get on a roll at the end of the year then we could be cruising into that final regular season game.

 

[EricLA]

Every single bracketologist has Uconn comfortably in right now. Lunardi has us as a 9 seed as of today. I looked at 5-6 others and haven't found us any lower than a 10.

There are 37 at-large bids to distribute - and there just aren't 37 teams with better resumes than ours right now.

this is similar to what a few others have said in this thread and this makes the most sense to me. of course UCONN could play its way out of the tourney by going 2-4 over the remaining 6 games, but while 3-3 only puts us at 18 wins, i think it would be hard to keep us out. of course, 4-2 is better and winning some games in the BET will help as well. we will see!

 

[champs99and04]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm feeling about as confident as you can for a team that has lost 8 of 11. Just look at the bracketology Lunardi has out today. UConn is in the tournament pretty comfortably. Hell, even teams like Seton Hall got a bid. Again, there are what, 36 at large bids available? And that doesn't even include the teams that would have gotten an at large but won their conference tournament. I wouldn't push it with an 8-10 record, but if we can get to 19 wins and get to the quarters of the BET I think that would be enough.

 

[bobbygt]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm feeling about as confident as you can for a team that has lost 8 of 11. Just look at the bracketology Lunardi has out today. UConn is in the tournament pretty comfortably. Hell, even teams like Seton Hall got a bid. Again, there are what, 36 at large bids available? And that doesn't even include the teams that would have gotten an at large but won their conference tournament. I wouldn't push it with an 8-10 record, but if we can get to 19 wins and get to the quarters of the BET I think that would be enough.

I was surprised by that as well.

I've kept far away from reading these postseason predictions/bubble watch articles, basically because uconn has been cruisin for a bruisin of late.

I won't say I'm convinced. But it's not all doom yet.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

UConn has to actually win some games at some point. I would say the resume is a lot stronger than the product on the court right now. UConn has turned around mid-season swoons before. Let's hope they can do it again.

 

[willie99]

5-1 a stone cold lock, 4-2 a pretty solid bet

3-3 IDK, lean out