Bracketology (merged threads)

[Hoopz]

Louisville has one loss in the ACC. Beaten Syracuse, Florida State, Miami. Close loss to ND. One loss in last nineteen. Who else can say that among the power conferences?

I'm pretty sure that the committee looks at the quality of wins instead of quantity.

 

[UcMiami]

I'm not really sure that's the reason. The Pac-12 actually won a lower percentage of its OOC games than the Big 12, but its conference RPI is higher because (evidently) it played a tougher collective OOC schedule. SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI, the win-loss record only 25%.

The calculations all vary a little, but

SOS is typically determined as a team's opponents winning percentage - so if you play all mid major teams OOC but chose the eventual mid-major conference champions for your opponents then your SOS will be stronger than a team playing mid level P5 teams because the mid-major conference champions will typically have better overall W/L records than the P5 teams who have conference records of 8/8.

RPI calculations take into account three different W/L records - the Team; the Team's opponents (SOS); and the Team's opponents' opponents. The percentages used for RPI are 25/50/25.

If the all the teams in a conference get their schedule right and play OOC teams that are all just a little worse than them at whatever level they are at, they come out of OOC play with gaudy W/L records, regardless of what their SOS (the opponents W/L record) ends up being, and those gaudy W/L records then assist all their conference mates to the tune of 50% of their RPI calculation plus it also adds to the 25% of the opponents' opponents calculations for the rest of their games:

As an example:
USC went 12-0 in their OOC - no idea what their opponents did and it isn't that important for the rest of this because USC isn't getting into any post season play - they are 6-12 in conference.
When Oregon State now plays USC, their SOS goes up because while USC is a bad team, their record is 18-12 (60% winning) so to the calculation it looks like a 'good' team.
Oregon States RPI calculation also goes up because they get another win (25% RPI weighting) plus USCs W/L record is 18/12 (50% RPI weighting) and the fact that USCs OOC opponents may have losing records is only a 25% RPI weighting hit. And if USC chose carefully in OOC teams that were just worse than them, that 25% hit might actually not be a hit at all.

Where it really gets interesting is now Oregon State plays Arizona State and they both have good winning percentages because they have played mediocre OOC schedules and Beaten up on conference mates like USC. They both get a SOS bump because they play each other. And the RPI calculation:

Oregon State's RPI is 25% for their W/L record which has benefitted by playing USC, 50% is Arizona State's W/L record which has benefitted from playing USC, and the final 25% is benefitted by USC having compiled that 12-0 OOC record.

The perfect line-up of OOC opponents in terms of both SOS and conference RPI calculations would read something like:
Albany 24-4
Maine 24-7
FLGC 26-4
Montana State 21-6
UNC Asheville 22-6
UC Riverside 21-7
Long Beach State 21-7
James Madison 22-5
Hofstra 21-7
UTEP 25-2
etc.
Teams that will compile great W/L records in minor conferences.
USC hit two of the above - Albany and Long Beach State, plus Santa Clara 22-7, Gonzaga 18-12, Iona 20-11 in an OOC that included one NAIA school, one P5 school (WV) and the rest mid majors with only two of them with losing records - Southern Utah and UC Irvine just about the perfect conference mate for the rest of the Pac12 to establish a good RPI.

 

[EricLA]

So glad to see Temple as "in". Temple is literally the last one in the dance in his "last 4 in". They need to win out in the AAC tourney until they meet USF or UCONN. Anything less bumps them out of the NCAA's. I'm not sure what the brackets look like but hopefully they have a chance to win a game or 2 to boost their resume...

Side note - a few mystifying things - as several pointed out, MD in UCONN's bracket is crazy talk. It should be Oregon State or maybe ASU. USF as an 8 seed is still crazy. I get that they didn't have the toughest schedule, but from an eye test perspective, it's moronic that a top 20 team is an 8 seed. They've been ranked in the top 20 for about 2 months now.

I don't have as much problem with L'ville as a 3 seed as some do, but given their schedules, I'd put L'ville ahead of Oregon State as a 2 seed. Lastly, I'm glad he still has Tenn as a 9 seed. EVen with their win over a depleted Georgia team. haven't see the SEC b racket yet but it would not surprise me to see Tenn win at least 2 games there. if they have to face aTm on the way to the finals, they might even make it to the final game. I sure hope not but we will see. If they are an 8 or 9 seed, they NEED to be in UCONN's bracket. that would be glorious.

 

[Charlie]

Charlie Creme now has Tenn in UCONN bracket

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[Roundball fan]

Would that be nice? I would love to see us play Tennessee.

 

[TheGOAT23]

The Cuse is in there as well.

 

[EricLA]

That's assuming they get past GW if that bracket were to be the one that came to fruition. Funny thing - he has them on teh "rise" after a 20 point win against a dreadful Arkansas team. I guess if USF wins their first round game in the AACT, they jump to a 6 seed?

 

[huskeynut]

It would be nice, but I don't think the selection committee will do it.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

I guess UConn is destined to get stuck with the toughest 2-seed.

 

[Vowelguy]

It's Charlie CREME.

 

[arty155]

 

[Bigpetunia]

Would love to see this come to pass. What would be the projected "line?" UConn -25?

 

[Wbbfan1]

Plus he has the Lady Vols coming to Storrs. Won't have to worry about that Game selling out.

Maryland because of geographic placement will end up in hte Bridgeport Region. Closer to College Park then Lexington Ky.

 

[Blueconn]

Charlie seems wrong as often as he's right and committee seedlings can often surprise.

But the possibility of whacking the Lady Vols is a fun thing to contemplate. And then to listen to announcers explain Q's decision to refuse the "Stewie game" in order that they pack the Carrier Dome on that same night with a few hundred grateful fans (was it 300 ?), and then to have pre-game locker room video of Brenda explain that stopping "30, 4, 3, 33, 11, 15, 24, 12, 51, 22, 2, and 20" will be critical to playing "Maryland basketball"....Gosh, I hope Charlie is spot on.

Most fun in Bridgeport since P.T. Barnum was in town.

 

[GG]

I would like to see that play out. I like to think that we are a little bit better than Georgia and Arkansas.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Charlie puts it out there as the Toady of ESPN/SEC network: not happening.

 

[Charliebball]

Don't know much about the current UCLA team but other the Maryland, I think that bracket would be a breeze for UConn....as it should be for the number one ranked team

 

[Kaizen]

That is so nice. Almost guarantees Tenn can not past the 2nd round.
Does Creme really hate Tenn so much?

 

[ChicagoGG]

Charlie puts it out there as the Toady of ESPN/SEC network: not happening.

True that, Rocky!

 

[HuskyFan1125]

I doubt the committee does that. Tennessee will likely get a "surprising" higher than normal seed just because of name and reputation alone.

 

[Kaizen]

I doubt the committee does that. Tennessee will likely get a "surprising" higher than normal seed just because of name and reputation alone.

But Tenn gets punishment to play UConn... LOL

 

[msf22b]

That's assuming they get past GW if that bracket were to be the one that came to fruition. Funny thing - he has them on teh "rise" after a 20 point win against a dreadful Arkansas team. I guess if USF wins their first round game in the AACT, they jump to a 6 seed?

They won (which is a significant improvement)
They're playing a bit better as Holly finally figures out a more productive way to use her talent.
They might win tonight and actually be a threat to win the SEC (which is not all that hot as per previous discussions).
Then, we most likely will not see them in the NCAA's
But who knows?

 

[Vowelguy]

Does Creme really hate Tenn so much?

I doubt the committee does that. Tennessee will likely get a "surprising" higher than normal seed just because of name and reputation alone.

It's interesting, and frankly sad, that so many can't fathom that there are actually people who can make unbiased decisions.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

and then to have pre-game locker room video of Brenda explain that stopping "30, 4, 3, 33, 11, 15, 24, 12, 51, 22, 2, and 20" will be critical to playing "Maryland basketball"....Gosh, I hope Charlie is spot on.

We defend, we rebound, we run. Now lets go play Maryland basketball.

 

[Nuyoika]

The real question is has Creme ever been 100% right on placement? No. I wouldn't get your hopes up too much. He is generally pretty accurate on at large bids but after that it's a crap shoot.