Bracketology Feb 26th. Baylor still a #2 Seed.

[Wbbfan1]

Bracketology with Charlie Creme


The only way I see Baylor as a #2 seed is if Notre Dame beats Louisville for the ACC Tournament Championship. IMO if Louisville wins, then Notre Dame is the #2 Seed and Baylor is #1 in Spokane. If that happens, who knows what Region Notre Dame ends up in.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

You really think so??

I see it differently. If both Louisville and ND make it to championship game of ACC I don’t think they move off 1 line despite a loss (as they are both #1 seeds).

I still think SOS keeps the Bears on the 2 line.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Even though the ACC considers Notre Dame and Louisville as Co-Champs, I don't. Louisville destroyed ND by 33 Points (100-67). If Louisville beats them again, then we and the committee know who the Best team in the ACC is. Baylor by anyones eye test and performance on the court is one of the Top 4 teams in the country.

You really think so??

I see it differently. If both Louisville and ND make it to championship game of ACC I don’t think they move off 1 line despite a loss (as they are both #1 seeds).

I still think SOS keeps the Bears on the 2 line.

 

[eebmg]

Looking at the bubble.

Last four in
Minnesota
Purdue
Rutgers
Creighton

First four out
South Dakota State
Nebraska
Oklahoma
UCF


Rooting heavily for UCF and Nebraska. How well do they have to do in their conference tournaments to get over the bubble?

 

[DefenseBB]

Even though the ACC considers Notre Dame and Louisville as Co-Champs, I don't. Louisville destroyed ND by 33 Points (100-67). If Louisville beats them again, then we and the committee know who the Best team in the ACC is. Baylor by anyones eye test and performance on the court is one of the Top 4 teams in the country.

ND's strength of schedule is #1 (they played UConn so that puts it higher than UConn's) so they could absorb a loss to Louisville and still be a #1 seed. Louisville has a SoS of 8 vs. Baylor's 10 so they need the win more. If ND beats Louisville, I see Louisville being #2 in Lenxington with Baylor being #1. If Louisville wins, I see ND and Baylor going to Spokane as the #1 and #2 seeds.

I would be interested in hearing from Plebe who has pretty good insight on this stuff.

 

[CocoHusky]

If these brackets hold up I really really like Oregon's chances of making the final 4.

 

[DefenseBB]

Looking at the bubble.

Last four in
Minnesota
Purdue
Rutgers
Creighton

First four out
South Dakota State
Nebraska
Oklahoma
UCF


Rooting heavily for UCF and Nebraska. How well do they have to do in their conference tournaments to get over the bubble?

If I may ask-why Rutgers over Nebraska? CVS has lost 9 of her last 12, has free-fallin in the ratings down to #57 while Nebraska has shot up to #43 and finished 3rd in the Big10. Their SoS is negligiable at 54 for Neb vs. 40 for RU. Purdue is #58 ranked and tied for 7th. I don't see RU or Purdue getting in barring a big run thru the B10 tourney...Oklahoma is in. UCF is out. Their ranking is #65 and their Sos is 73-NO way are they getting in...this year. Minnesota is in. Tough call on SD St vs. Creighton.

Charlie seems like a nice enough guy but he's delusional on some of these as the committee looks at the whole season and at who's playing well now. IMO the Spokane bracket is pretty soft...

 

[JoePgh]

In AAC-related news, I see that this latest Bracketology shows (I believe for the first time) that UCF is one of the "first four out". That would seem to imply that if UCF can get to the Finals of the upcoming AAC tournament (which probably implies a victory over South Florida in the Semifinals), then they would probably get into the Dance. I don't think that would result in USF being excluded, although it might cost them a seeding line or two. So in that event, the AAC would be represented by three teams, as it has been in past years.

I had always wondered why I never saw a reference to UCF prior to now on any of the previous Bracketology editions.

 

[Orangutan]

Even though the ACC considers Notre Dame and Louisville as Co-Champs, I don't. Louisville destroyed ND by 33 Points (100-67). If Louisville beats them again, then we and the committee know who the Best team in the ACC is. Baylor by anyones eye test and performance on the court is one of the Top 4 teams in the country.

To me, ND should be ahead of Louisville right now. Better RPI, better strength of schedule. The Committee doesn't take computer rankings into account, as far as I know, but both Massey and Sagarin have ND ahead of Louisville. You can't just throw out that head-to-head, but anyone who has watched ND knows they have greatly improved since that game, especially defensively since switching to the zone basically full-time.

If the margin of Louisville's victory over ND matters so much, it should matter that Louisville lost at home to the same Florida State team that ND whipped by 31 in Tallahassee.

That being said, Louisville was ahead of ND in the final rankings reveal, so you are probably right.

 

[CocoHusky]

To me, ND should be ahead of Louisville right now. Better RPI, better strength of schedule. The Committee doesn't take computer rankings into account, as far as I know, but both Massey and Sagarin have ND ahead of Louisville. You can't just throw out that head-to-head, but anyone who has watched ND knows they have greatly improved since that game, especially defensively since switching to the zone basically full-time.

If the margin of Louisville's victory over ND matters so much, it should matter that Louisville lost at home to the same Florida State team that ND whipped by 31 in Tallahassee.
That being said, Louisville was ahead of ND in the final rankings reveal, so you are probably right.

Hold up! " To me, ND should be ahead of Louisville right now." "You can't just throw out that head-to-head.....".
Seems that your rationale ( ND > Cards) is doing exactly that-throwing out the head to head. I have a hard time throwing out the ND vs Louisville game because it was 16 games into the season.

 

[DallasBUFan]

Leave BU a #=2 Seed and put them in the #3 seed bracket. BU will benefit more from it. I like the idea of UConn vs Miss State/BU in final. Pending BU beats 1 seed ND or Louisville.

 

[Jbigfan]

Bracketology with Charlie Creme


The only way I see Baylor as a #2 seed is if Notre Dame beats Louisville for the ACC Tournament Championship. IMO if Louisville wins, then Notre Dame is the #2 Seed and Baylor is #1 in Spokane. If that happens, who knows what Region Notre Dame ends up in.

I have found in the past that C.Creme's bracket placements of the 8 regions does not always fall in line with the committee's brackets. Any comments/thoughts?

 

[Orangutan]

Hold up! " To me, ND should be ahead of Louisville right now." "You can't just throw out that head-to-head.....".
Seems that your rationale ( ND > Cards) is doing exactly that-throwing out the head to head. I have a hard time throwing out the ND vs Louisville game because it was 16 games into the season.

I think it's significant but I don't think it's more significant than any other game. It's a road loss to the then-#3 team in the country. Ok, Louisville lost at home to then-#12 Florida State.

I think we should be comparing overall resumes, not "Louisville beat ND head-to-head, therefore they must be a higher seed".

 

[CocoHusky]

I think it's significant but I don't think it's more significant than any other game. It's a road loss to the then-#3 team in the country. Ok, Louisville lost at home to then-#12 Florida State.
I think we should be comparing overall resumes, not "Louisville beat ND head-to-head, therefore they must be a higher seed".

We are comparing overall resumes. Head to head is a part of overall resume no need to exclude it.

 

[Orangutan]

We are comparing overall resumes. Head to head is a part of overall resume no need to exclude it.

Who is arguing that we exclude it?

I'm saying that ND's overall resume is better. Better RPI, better strength of schedule, more RPI top 50 wins. That's the argument for ND's resume. What is the argument for Louisville's? Beat ND badly head-to-head. And? What else?

 

[skilz]

Either way, I see Baylor (and Louisville) going to Lexington. If Louisville loses the ACC tourney and Baylor wins the Big 12 Tourney, Baylor has a possibility of being a #1 with Louisville as the #2. More than likely, it will be the other way around.

 

[CocoHusky]

Who is arguing that we exclude it? I'm saying that ND's overall resume is better. Better RPI, better strength of schedule, more RPI top 50 wins. That's the argument for ND's resume. What is the argument for Louisville's? Beat ND badly head-to-head. And? What else?

I am.

Seems that your rationale ( ND > Cards) is doing exactly that-throwing out the head to head.

 

[Orangutan]

I am.

You are?

no need to exclude it.

You are talking out of both sides of your mouth. Or, more accurately, you are trying to put words in mine. Either way, you are arguing in bad faith and more concerned with semantics than basketball, so I'm done here.

 

[BrianF]

If I may ask-why Rutgers over Nebraska? CVS has lost 9 of her last 12, has free-fallin in the ratings down to #57 while Nebraska has shot up to #43 and finished 3rd in the Big10. Their SoS is negligiable at 54 for Neb vs. 40 for RU. Purdue is #58 ranked and tied for 7th. I don't see RU or Purdue getting in barring a big run thru the B10 tourney...Oklahoma is in. UCF is out. Their ranking is #65 and their Sos is 73-NO way are they getting in...this year. Minnesota is in. Tough call on SD St vs. Creighton.

Charlie seems like a nice enough guy but he's delusional on some of these as the committee looks at the whole season and at who's playing well now. IMO the Spokane bracket is pretty soft...

I can never figure out if Charlie's trying to guess what the NCAA bracket will look like, or whether he's putting his own opinion in there. In his last one, he had Buffalo, which at the time had an RPI of 15, on the outside looking in, while Miami and Michigan, #44 and 47, respectively, were in.

I hate the RPI, I think they ought to get rid of it for good. I especially hate it when people start talking about RPI and then SOS. Since the RPI is 75% based on opponents records, it IS strength of schedule. There's no need to give double bonus points for scheduling strength. And, since you have no control over your conference, the better choice entirely would be nonconference SOS. Conference SOS should be ignored completely.

 

[Bear11]

I can never figure out if Charlie's trying to guess what the NCAA bracket will look like, or whether he's putting his own opinion in there. In his last one, he had Buffalo, which at the time had an RPI of 15, on the outside looking in, while Miami and Michigan, #44 and 47, respectively, were in.

I hate the RPI, I think they ought to get rid of it for good. I especially hate it when people start talking about RPI and then SOS. Since the RPI is 75% based on opponents records, it IS strength of schedule. There's no need to give double bonus points for scheduling strength. And, since you have no control over your conference, the better choice entirely would be nonconference SOS. Conference SOS should be ignored completely.

Along the same lines, I can't figure out why he excludes Oklahoma. They are highly thought of in RPI which is confirmed by Massey and Sagarin. They have an insane schedule. The only knock is they only have one strong win, USF, assuming they don't count their two wins over WVU. I hope they knock off Texas to remove all doubt, but they should be considered in already.

I think we tend to forget that this bracketology is just one person's opinion, and he doesn't have the best track record. We really have no idea how the bubble is shaping up in the minds of the committee.

 

[CocoHusky]

I can never figure out if Charlie's trying to guess what the NCAA bracket will look like, or whether he's putting his own opinion in there. In his last one, he had Buffalo, which at the time had an RPI of 15, on the outside looking in, while Miami and Michigan, #44 and 47, respectively, were in. I hate the RPI, I think they ought to get rid of it for good. I especially hate it when people start talking about RPI and then SOS. Since the RPI is 75% based on opponents records, it IS strength of schedule. There's no need to give double bonus points for scheduling strength. And, since you have no control over your conference, the better choice entirely would be nonconference SOS. Conference SOS should be ignored completely.

Maybe Charlie doesn't use RPI in his calculation.
Can't agree with you that conference SOS should be ignored completely because not all conferences are created equal.
If you are playing in a tough conference you should get credit for competing in a tough conference just like you should get penalized for a weak OOC schedule as Maryland was last year and Baylor seems to be this year.

 

[Bear11]

There should be no differentiation between conference and nonconference SOS. The schedule as a whole is what matters.

 

[LoTrader]

Maybe Charlie doesn't use RPI in his calculation.
Can't agree with you that conference SOS should be ignored completely because not all conferences are created equal.
If you are playing in a tough conference you should get credit for competing in a tough conference just like you should get penalized for a weak OOC schedule as Maryland was last year and Baylor seems to be this year.

It seems like RPI is the only factor that Charlie's bracketology and the Selection Committee are considering. Although, good to see Duke in his top 16.

 

[Bear11]

I only just noticed, but Baylor is now 4th in the RPI over Louisville. There is really no justification for keeping us as a 2 seed according to their own metrics.

 

[DefenseBB]

I only just noticed, but Baylor is now 4th in the RPI over Louisville. There is really no justification for keeping us as a 2 seed according to their own metrics.

Here's Massey's rating which gives more insight than RPI Massey Ratings - CBW
Baylor has #10 SoS with Louisville #8.

My view is if Louisville wins the ACC, they and ND stay #1's. If ND wins, then Lousville with 3 losses gets beaten out by Baylor (assuming BU wins the Big12) and both get put in the Lexington Region.

 

[Bear11]

Here's Massey's rating which gives more insight than RPI Massey Ratings - CBW
Baylor has #10 SoS with Louisville #8.

My view is if Louisville wins the ACC, they and ND stay #1's. If ND wins, then Lousville with 3 losses gets beaten out by Baylor (assuming BU wins the Big12) and both get put in the Lexington Region.

I am a firm believer in Massey and Sagarin as useful tools. The difference between the 8th and 10th best schedule is so slight as to be meaningless. If the committee's own stupid metric says Baylor is the better team, and the accurate ones say Baylor is better by a lot, then the choice should be clear. Of course I would never trust the committee to actually follow their own guidelines.

 

[DefenseBB]

I am a firm believer in Massey and Sagarin as useful tools. The difference between the 8th and 10th best schedule is so slight as to be meaningless. If the committee's own stupid metric says Baylor is the better team, and the accurate ones say Baylor is better by a lot, then the choice should be clear. Of course I would never trust the committee to actually follow their own guidelines.

As I contemplate this, I wonder if Oregon wins the PAC12, Louisville wins the ACC if Oregon gets a #1 in Spokane and Baylor is #2. ND would go to Kansas City, Texas goes to Lexington. BU would be the best #2 seed, Oregon the weakest #1 seed, SC would be the weakest #2 seed and goes to Albany. Louisville as the 3rd #1 is in Lex, MSU as the overall second best is #1 in KC.

Based on what the committee has stressed last year with Maryland and in all the reveals this year, SoS is a major factor. You want to be the best, play the best. I just don't see them "rewarding" Baylor with a #1 even if the eye test says yes, #1- you need to go and prove it.

BTW, Kim has been remarkably silent on this. Maybe she wants to see the final seeding as up to this point it's all speculation. I do wonder if she will modify her soft schedule of "in-state cupcakes" and "home-cooking" in Nov/Dec and actually take on a few blue bloods, of which she is supposed be one of.
Seriously-Lamar, Coppin St, Missouri St, North Dakota, McNeese and Nichols dotted your schedule this year and ALL were at home.

So the more I write, the more I want BU to be a #2. You want to be considered a "big boy" put on "big boy pants" and play other "big boys"....

 

[Bear11]

There is no way Oregon would get a 1 seed over Baylor, should Baylor win the last 4 games. They are 8 in the RPI and much lower rated by all polls and ratings. They will get to stay in Spokane barring a disaster in the Pac 12 tournament, but they can't be a 1 seed. They were already below Baylor in the last committee update, which was before Baylor beat Texas for the 2nd time. It is not the job of the committee to send messages, it is their job to rank teams, and every ranking available says Baylor is better than Oregon.

 

[LoTrader]

There is no way Oregon would get a 1 seed over Baylor, should Baylor win the last 4 games. They are 8 in the RPI and much lower rated by all polls and ratings. They will get to stay in Spokane barring a disaster in the Pac 12 tournament, but they can't be a 1 seed. They were already below Baylor in the last committee update, which was before Baylor beat Texas for the 2nd time. It is not the job of the committee to send messages, it is their job to rank teams, and every ranking available says Baylor is better than Oregon.

We won't know which team is better unless they get an opportunity to play each other. I don't think Oregon or Baylor deserve to be #1 seed. All that really matters is both get their 1st two games on their home court. Should they win their 1st two games, then they move on and its win or go home. I hope Baylor does get matched up with one of the top 4 PAC12 teams. I think any of these PAC12 teams vs Baylor would be a fun game to watch.

 

[Centerstream]

I really enjoy reading all the posts concerning CC's Bracketology and all the "homers" giving their reasons on why their team should be a 1 seed. But then it dawns on me that only one Bracket matters and Charlie, the person that ESPN basically made famous and relevant, will probably be there when the "real" Bracket is announced and try to continue to explain his rationale.

Just so that I am clear, I do not have any problem with anyone who is posting on this thread and actually find it educational.

Go for it everyone!!!!