Bracketology 2/22

[tzznandrew]

They also cratered to end the season. They looked like a lock and somehow choked it away, which made it seem more of a snub than it was.

That first round Houston loss was the death knell. Everyone intuitively realized it, but then was PO'd (rightly) when a thoroughly mediocre NC State found a way into the tournament instead.

 

[uconnphil2016]

Duke, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M, and Cincy/Gonzaga in our region? No thanks...

 

[Jerry1714]

People remember them being ranked, and so inflate the snub. They played a piss-poor schedule that was a holdover of being CUSA and got hurt because of it.

Their non-conference SOS was 303, committee has put a recent emphasis on that

 

[pepband99]

Two years ago:
SMU - Out - RPI 53 - Kenpom 64, BPI 31
Last four in:
Iowa - RPI 55 - Kenpom 24, BPI 26 - Iowa deserved it over SMU
Tenn - RPI 40 - Kenpom 14, BPI 25 - No debate Tenn deserved it over SMU
Xavier - RPI 47 - Kenpom 43, BPI 54 - X had better RPI and Kenpom - big BPI difference between the 2
NC State - RPI 54 - Kenpom 67, BPI 61 - Here is the only case to be made, but SMU played the 135th SOS as opposed to NC State's 23rd SOS

It probably came down to 2 teams, NC State and SMU, and outside of BPI and SOS the numbers are identical.

SMU being left out was not crazy or egregious.

Not the point of this thread, but the fact you're now saying this, after beating me up relentlessly for warning they might miss the tourney, is downright hilarious.

http://the-boneyard.com/threads/bubble-teams.53986/page-2#post-869385

 

[Jerry1714]

Not the point of this thread, but the fact you're now saying this, after beating me up relentlessly for warning they might miss the tourney, is downright hilarious.

http://the-boneyard.com/threads/bubble-teams.53986/page-2#post-869385

Man, still sad 2 years later? Sorry.

 

[UChusky916]

Beat a 1 and you become a 1.

Let's worry about beating teams like Temple in the AAC and clinching a tournament birth before we start talking about beating 1 seeds.

 

[Hi-Low]

I really don't think our current situation is yet comparable to the recent tourney snubs Temple or SMU. All our metrics say we are in solidly in "as of now"....Only 2 things can screw UConn up now -
- Losing to anyone other than SMU in last four regular season games.
- TX, SMU, Michigan, Tulsa (top 50ish wins) collapse down the stretch taking us down the board with them.

 

[Jerry1714]

As a follow up bracket matrix has us as a 8 seed

http://bracketmatrix.com/

 

[BFieldHusky]

Oh they are definitely in real danger, but here is the S curve

Saturday seed list (CAPS=AQ): 01-NOVA, 02-KU, 03-UVa, 04-Okla, 05-UNC, 06-Xav, 07-IOWA, 08-Miami, 09-MichSt, 10-Md, 11-Wvu, 12-Ore, 13-UK...14-Duke, 15-IowaSt, 16-Day, 17-Purd, 18-NDame, 19-ZONA, 20-Texas, 21-TexA&M, 22-Utah, 23-Ind, 24-Bay, 25-Cal, 26-SoCal, 27-WICH, 28-Flor, 29-Prov, 30-Colo, 31-SoCar, 32-StJoe, 33-Conn, 34-ZAGA, 35-Wisc, 36-Cuse, 37-VCU, 38-Mich, 39-SHall, 40-Pitt, 41-TEMP, 42-Lsu, 43-VALP...44-TTech(L4), 45-Bama(L4), 46-MONM, 47-Butler(L4), 48-Cincy(L4), 49-SDSU, 50-UALR, 51-CHATT, 52-STONY, 53-YALE, 54-AKRON, 55-HAW, 56-UNCW

So prior to their Houston win they were 1 at large spot from the L4 in.

So based on this, there are 11 at large teams behind us in the bracket. Beat USF, Houston and UCF and I think the American tournament is purely for seeding. Beat SMU in addition to this, and we could move up towards a 6 seed.

 

[Blue Blood]

Has anyone looked at the tourney odds despite us being a 9 seed lunardi has us 20th most likely to win the ship ahead of 3 seed Oregon among others not that it means anything just found it interesting

 

[Jerry1714]

Has anyone looked at the tourney odds despite us being a 9 seed lunardi has us 20th most likely to win the ship ahead of 3 seed Oregon among others not that it means anything just found it interesting

My site has 40-1, which they have been at most of the year

 

[Blue Blood]

My site has 40-1, which they have been at most of the year

Lunardi does it differently he gives us a .9% to win Kansas is number 1 with a little over 10%

 

[storrs15]

They were 100-1 in 2014 at this time

 

[Jaker]

If we are in the NYC pod, I give us about 20-1