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Bracketology 2/13

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vtcwbuff

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Big news - UTenn a 3 seed in Chicago. WV in, Villanova out. Link
 
Possible UConn vs Tenn match up.
 
that would be fun. but i'd rather see Delaware as our 4 seed, not PSU. not that i think we'd struggle vs. either team, but i think for fan interest, UCONN-Delaware has more interest to most UCONN fans...
 
If Fl Gulf Coast gets by Penn St, Mel gets to visit with the the team. Well, according to Charlie.
 
Please, please, please let this be what the actual Kingston bracket looks like. That would be four consecutive massacres.
 
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Why does Stanford get the easiest #2 seed? and the easiest #3 seed?
 
How is Charlie making his allocations to seed?

The committee starts with RPI. They don't have to slavishly follow it, as there are a number of adjustments to the pure formula, such as quality wins and bad losses, which can affect the starting RPI slot, plus there are geographical, match-up, and guarantees which can move a team from its adjusted slot, but I'm not understanding some of the decisions.

For example, Delaware is number six on the RPI list. They have no bad losses, and a pretty solid win against PSU. Their raw RPI is a solid two seed, and I don't see any reason to move them down at all, but even if one discounts the schedule a bit (with an SOS of 24, it is stronger than some realize), I can't justify them dropping more than a single slot, to number three. I don't know of any other restrictions which would justify the move all the way down to a 4 seed.
 
Phil said:
How is Charlie making his allocations to seed?

The committee starts with RPI. They don't have to slavishly follow it, as there are a number of adjustments to the pure formula, such as quality wins and bad losses, which can affect the starting RPI slot, plus there are geographical, match-up, and guarantees which can move a team from its adjusted slot, but I'm not understanding some of the decisions.

For example, Delaware is number six on the RPI list. They have no bad losses, and a pretty solid win against PSU. Their raw RPI is a solid two seed, and I don't see any reason to move them down at all, but even if one discounts the schedule a bit (with an SOS of 24, it is stronger than some realize), I can't justify them dropping more than a single slot, to number three. I don't know of any other restrictions which would justify the move all the way down to a 4 seed.
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i have to imagine some has to do with perception. Deleware beat PSU early, correct, then lost a relatively close game to maryland? i'm not sure how those seedings will change by the time the regular season is done but maybe the committee will end up putting them as a 3 or even a 2 seed...

i remember the year 'nova beat UCONN in the BET finals and ended up a 2 seed, only to get slaughtered by Tennessee in the regionals. 'nova may have "deserved" a 2 seed based on their win over UCONN, but they weren't one of the top 8 teams in the nation, not really. at least not IMHO.
 
Aluminny69 said:
Why does Stanford get the easiest #2 seed? and the easiest #3 seed?
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If the right two seeds are Miami, Duke, Maryland and Kentucky, then the decision isn't to send the weakest or strongest or anything to Stanford it is how it works out. Miami gets to stay local in Tallahassee, Maryland gets to stay home, Kentucky gets a close venue in Norfolk, and Duke gets a reasonably close venue in Nashville, then on to Raleigh. One those choices are made, it just happens that the College Park team goes to Fresno (although I still don't recall whether that decision is already made, or is committee discretion.)
 
I think Charlie is mailing it in. Unranked Arkansas has an RPI of 34. That's bubble territoy. We should be arguing whether they deserve to go to the tournament, and Creme has them as a 5 seed? Why? They are maybe a 12, or maybe not worthy. a Five seed is ludicrous.
 
Oops, just realized that the NCAA RPI site, which updates on Mondays, isn't yet updated, so that changes things a bit, but not much. I know Arkansas has skated by with a couple win lately; I'll be surprised if their RPI is now below 20, but I'll check when it is updated.
 
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Still hoping that UNC continues its free fall and fails to make the tourney. It would be great for Duke to play its games in Chapel Hell for the opening rounds :D

I havent stepped foot in Chapel Hell in about 20 years, but I would probably make the journey down their for that great event :p
 
triaddukefan said:
Still hoping that UNC continues its free fall and fails to make the tourney. It would be great for Duke to play its games in Chapel Hell for the opening rounds :D

I havent stepped foot in Chapel Hell in about 20 years, but I would probably make the journey down their for that great event :p
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Oh come on- it's one thing to hate UNC, but Chapel Hill is a really fine college town.
 
Aluminny69 said:
Why does Stanford get the easiest #2 seed? and the easiest #3 seed?
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Right. Baylor's having to play KY isn't much of a reward for going undefeated in the regular season. The Lady Bears would maul Ohio State, though. Sims>Sammy
 
Wow, ND would have to play Duke in Raleigh? Ouch! Charlie Creme must have them as the 4th #1 seed.
 
alexrgct said:
Oh come on- it's one thing to hate UNC, but Chapel Hill is a really fine college town.
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Right, I like Chapel Hill a lot. Durham is kinda cool too, but nowhere near as charming as Chapel Hill.
 
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HuskyNan said:
Right. Baylor's having to play KY isn't much of a reward for going undefeated in the regular season. The Lady Bears would maul Ohio State, though. Sims>Sammy
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Sammy is not even in the same universe as Sims. Somebody let me know when she plays against a tough defensive team. Not happening in the B1G.

Sammy vs. Odyssey would be a massacre. Steal city and layup drill for Sims.
 
HuskyNan said:
Wow, ND would have to play Duke in Raleigh? Ouch! Charlie Creme must have them as the 4th #1 seed.
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Under the rankings today that would be very likely.
 
OK, AR is up to 28 in RPI, but that's still a long way from a five seed.

Tennessee actually moved up to 4, so not sure how to justify a three seed. a bad loss is worth one seed, but two?

Delaware dropped all the way from 6th, to 7th, so time to justify that 4 seed.

Villanova isn't doing much, but they still have an RPI of 20 and NIT? Very few teams with a 20 RPI fail to get invited.
 
HuskyNan said:
Wow, ND would have to play Duke in Raleigh? Ouch! Charlie Creme must have them as the 4th #1 seed.
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I saw that possibility about a month ago and thought that Muffett would not be happy about it at all.
 
I admit to not having checked Creme's meaningless Bracketology every week, but most of the times I see it he always has UConn and Tennessee in the same region. He appears obsessed with the possiblity and probably starts off the bracket by penciling in those 2 teams in the same region. It could happen, but I doubt the committee will be as preoccupied with it as Mr. Creme apparently is.
 
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HuskyNan said:
Wow, ND would have to play Duke in Raleigh? Ouch! Charlie Creme must have them as the 4th #1 seed.
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Remember that ND doesn't have to be the 4th #1 seed to get Duke because geography rules the day. It is one practical reason to give Stanford a #2. If Stanford gets a #1 seed they pretty much automatically get to play the weakest #2 seed because of geography. If Stanford is a #2 they still get to stay in the West and get the weakest #1 seed in their bracket. That's the joys of being the only Final Four contender west of the central time zone.
 
Scotter said:
Remember that ND doesn't have to be the 4th #1 seed to get Duke because geography rules the day. It is one practical reason to give Stanford a #2. If Stanford gets a #1 seed they pretty much automatically get to play the weakest #2 seed because of geography. If Stanford is a #2 they still get to stay in the West and get the weakest #1 seed in their bracket. That's the joys of being the only Final Four contender west of the central time zone.
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Very interesting analysis.
 
People have made some great comments about the brackets. I am writing this after TN wrecked KY......What if Uconn beats ND 2 times, or ND beats them 2 times?
What about the league tournaments?
A lot could happen yet, but the "Bracketology" does make the speculation interesting.

I think the only thing we can rely on at this time is that the top 4 teams go where Charlie has them placed. If a team is really good enough to win their bracket what difference does it make if they are seeded #3, 4, 5...?
 
Sooooooooooooooooooo.... who are the #2 Seeds right now?
 
triaddukefan said:
Still hoping that UNC continues its free fall and fails to make the tourney. It would be great for Duke to play its games in Chapel Hell for the opening rounds :D

I havent stepped foot in Chapel Hell in about 20 years, but I would probably make the journey down their for that great event :p
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LOL
 
alexrgct said:
Oh come on- it's one thing to hate UNC, but Chapel Hill is a really fine college town.
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Thats what Ive heard... Ive been there a few times in my youthful years... and it seemed charming and quaint enough..... but.... as Ive grown older and wiser... the sight of sissy blue makes my stomach queasy and my blood pressure rise.... so Im not sure i could handle that trip now. :D

Its a shame.... ive read of a few cool restaurants there, that I wanna check out.... maybe one of these days.....
 
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