Bracketology 1/9/24

[HuskyNan]

Women's Bracketology: UConn projects as top overall seed with one month to season

The four No. 1 seeds -- and USC -- hold steady with one month until the 2025-26 campaign tips off.

www.espn.com

 

[CL82]

I'll take it, though I would prefer to avoid South Carolina until the championship game. That said, I suspect if things continue to go well we will be better than a three seed. as per the net rankings that Nan posted, we have a good argument to be a 1 seed.

 

[EricLA]

If SC is the overall 1 seed, does this mean USC and UConn are the weakest of the 2/3 seeds? If so then I strongly disagree. Every metric puts UConn up close to a 2 seed so if they are a 3, then should be the top 3 seed in the brackets. But whatever. Tons of basketball left to play. I hope/expect UConn to win out with the exception of SC. If we beat SC, we should be a 1 seed. If we lose, probably a 2 seed come tourney time (depending on what the other 1 seeds do)...

 

[MSGRET]

If SC is the overall 1 seed, does this mean USC and UConn are the weakest of the 2/3 seeds? If so then I strongly disagree. Every metric puts UConn up close to a 2 seed so if they are a 3, then should be the top 3 seed in the brackets. But whatever. Tons of basketball left to play. I hope/expect UConn to win out with the exception of SC. If we beat SC, we should be a 1 seed. If we lose, probably a 2 seed come tourney time (depending on what the other 1 seeds do)...

If I remember correctly the Top #1 seed will have the Lowest #2 seed, the Highest #3 seed and the Lowest #4 seed in their Top 4 seeding bracket.

 

[Blakeon18]

Not sure I understand....help me out!

Assume for the moment that the 2 teams from Albany advancing
to the final four are South Carolina and UConn. Does this mean those
2 meet in the national semis? Obviously then the 2 final four teams from the
other regional would meet in the other semi-final.

Would there be ANY difference in the national semis if there were some bigtime
upsets of the high seeds in the regionals...or will the semis always be the
2 Albany reps?

 

[Plebe]

If SC is the overall 1 seed, does this mean USC and UConn are the weakest of the 2/3 seeds? If so then I strongly disagree. Every metric puts UConn up close to a 2 seed so if they are a 3, then should be the top 3 seed in the brackets. But whatever. Tons of basketball left to play. I hope/expect UConn to win out with the exception of SC. If we beat SC, we should be a 1 seed. If we lose, probably a 2 seed come tourney time (depending on what the other 1 seeds do)...

In a true S-curve the lowest 2 seed plays the highest 3 seed. But other bracketing rules (e.g. restrictions based on conference affiliation) can require deviations from a true S-curve.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

How do the Huskies drop to 13 after the week they had?

 

[Plebe]

Assume for the moment that the 2 teams from Albany advancing to the final four are South Carolina and UConn. Does this mean those 2 meet in the national semis? Obviously then the 2 final four teams from the other regional would meet in the other semi-final.

Not necessarily. The #1 overall seed would meet the #4 overall seed in the national semifinal if all goes chalk. Those two teams (and their respective sections of the draw) may or may not be assigned to the same "regional" site for the 2nd weekend.

Would there be ANY difference in the national semis if there were some bigtime upsets of the high seeds in the regionals...or will the semis always be the 2 Albany reps?

No, there is no rebracketing or reseeding once the tournament begins. But again, it wouldn't necessarily be the 2 winners from Albany meeting in the semifinal.

 

[EricLA]

If I remember correctly the Top #1 seed will have the Lowest #2 seed, the Highest #3 seed and the Lowest #4 seed in their Top 4 seeding bracket.

In a true S-curve the lowest 2 seed plays the highest 3 seed. But other bracketing rules (e.g. restrictions based on conference affiliation) can require deviations from a true S-curve.

That makes sense. I mean it's just Creme's estimates at this point. IF the committee really uses the NET and what not, then really we should be a 2 seed, and to be honest, Creme should reflect that even tho we all know there is a lot of basketball left to be played. According to the bracket then, we are #9, and NET has us at #4.

 

[JRRRJ]

Not sure I understand....help me out!

Assume for the moment that the 2 teams from Albany advancing
to the final four are South Carolina and UConn. Does this mean those
2 meet in the national semis? Obviously then the 2 final four teams from the
other regional would meet in the other semi-final.

Would there be ANY difference in the national semis if there were some bigtime
upsets of the high seeds in the regionals...or will the semis always be the
2 Albany reps?

Charlie has UConn and South Carolina in the same quarter of the tournament. Only one team from each quarter will make it to the Final Four. Since they are in opposite halfs (SC top half, UC lower half) of the quarter, UConn could play SC in the Elite Eight for that honor in Charlie's projection .

 

[Plebe]

That makes sense. I mean it's just Creme's estimates at this point. IF the committee really uses the NET and what not, then really we should be a 2 seed, and to be honest, Creme should reflect that even tho we all know there is a lot of basketball left to be played. According to the bracket then, we are #9, and NET has us at #4.

The NET is one factor among many, not decisive in seeding. Last year LSU was #3 in the NET but only got a 3 seed because they had relatively few quality wins. Oregon was #19 in the NET and didn't get a bid at all.

Just keep winning and the seeds will take care of themselves. Last I checked, Creme has never scored a bucket either for or against UConn's WBB team.

 

[Ozimoto]

I also doubt that that No. 4 net rating will hold. As the season progresses, the value of UConn's tough early schedule will be diluted by the toughness (perceived or otherwise) of conference play for the P5 teams over Big East conference play. Seeding will be what it is but yes, UConn has a good shot at a two seed if they win against the Irish and have a good showing against the Gamecocks. If they can get a win at South Carolina (a bridge too far methinks, but I would love to be wrong) they could have a shot at a 1 seed if things break the right way.

 

[HuskyNan]

If SC is the overall 1 seed, does this mean USC and UConn are the weakest of the 2/3 seeds? If so then I strongly disagree. Every metric puts UConn up close to a 2 seed so if they are a 3, then should be the top 3 seed in the brackets. But whatever. Tons of basketball left to play. I hope/expect UConn to win out with the exception of SC. If we beat SC, we should be a 1 seed. If we lose, probably a 2 seed come tourney time (depending on what the other 1 seeds do)...

They’re going to jigger it to put UConn in Albany

 

[BRS24]

Here's a look at CC and Megan Gauer's brackets:

 

[Bald Husky]

If the brackets remained like it this, SC would be our only obstacle. I consider USC to be like Iowa, a one woman team. If either of these teams lose their star player, they will not be in the top 10 any longer, and that's if they even make the top 20. Still, we have to get to be the best #2 at the least, if not a #1 to have a good bracket that we will not overly stress on.

 

[Jokerman619]

I also doubt that that No. 4 net rating will hold. As the season progresses, the value of UConn's tough early schedule will be diluted by the toughness (perceived or otherwise) of conference play for the P5 teams over Big East conference play. Seeding will be what it is but yes, UConn has a good shot at a two seed if they win against the Irish and have a good showing against the Gamecocks. If they can get a win at South Carolina (a bridge too far methinks, but I would love to be wrong) they could have a shot at a 1 seed if things break the right way.

 

[Rowdy831]

Not sure I understand....help me out!

Assume for the moment that the 2 teams from Albany advancing
to the final four are South Carolina and UConn. Does this mean those
2 meet in the national semis? Obviously then the 2 final four teams from the
other regional would meet in the other semi-final.

Would there be ANY difference in the national semis if there were some bigtime
upsets of the high seeds in the regionals...or will the semis always be the
2 Albany reps?

Only 1 of those teams will advance. They would play in the Great 8 if they play and the winner would be on to play the winner of one of the other three regional finalist.

 

[BRS24]

End of week update from CC: LSU moves up to #2, Baylor down to #3, KSU & Baylor switch regions. TN back into the first four out group, but not quite in the field of 68 yet. See y'all next week.