DobbsRover2
Slap me 10
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With KY in UConn's bracket as the #2 seed after a 4-4 finish in their last 8 games that included two very ugly losses, the question is how to view the teams that kind of slouch into the tournament. The selection committee sometimes cites a team's finish as a factor in whether it was or wasn't selected, and tourney previews not surprisingly take a dim view of prospects for teams like KY that had mediocre finishes. This year there are a somewhat higher number of teams with non-winning final 10 game records than last year, 10 vs 8, so we're dealing with more problem-child picks in filling out the brackets. (Palm's G0ry Details charts for 2010 and 2009 are either missing or screwed up). So what's the poop (poop sandwich?) about them?
If you picked against the teams with poor finishes for the 2011 tourney brackets, you didn't necessarily do well if you were looking for quick exits. The six with RPIs of 35 or better (GTech, Georgetown, UNC, OK, WVU, GA) all won their first game and combined for a respectable 10 wins among them, though none ventured past the third round. Only the two with #37 and #38 RPIs, KSU and Texas, flamed out early. Of course five of the teams that won a game were at least #8 seeds and were somewhat favored, as only WVU was a #9 seed for its opening win before going down to Baylor in the second round. KSU was a #8 seed and Texas a #9.
This year there a 7 teams that finished with a non-winning final 10 record but have an RPI of #31 or better and have a seed #8 or better. So going from last year's experience, Texas A&M, Rutgers, KSU, Louisville, OSU, OK, and Nebraska should be good for 1 to 2 wins, which is certainly not a shocker. But Michigan (4-6, #45, 11-seed), Kansas (3-7 - big ouch, #53, 11-seed) and Texas (5-5, #55, 9-seed) all are well set up to go down fast.
Of course, not all final 10 records are created equal. #3-seed Texas A&M has 3 of its last 5 losses to Baylor, Rutgers has three losses at the end to #1 seeds, and Louisville has two losses recently to #1 seeds. As for KY, which finished 6-4 in the last 10 games and actually saw its RPI go from #12 to #9 over the last three weeks, I'm not expecting them to see UConn but I'm a little less inclined to pick a first round loss against McNeese St. Maybe a flame-out in the 2nd round against the Phoenix or getting blown away by the Cyclones out in Iowa is more in the cards.
If you picked against the teams with poor finishes for the 2011 tourney brackets, you didn't necessarily do well if you were looking for quick exits. The six with RPIs of 35 or better (GTech, Georgetown, UNC, OK, WVU, GA) all won their first game and combined for a respectable 10 wins among them, though none ventured past the third round. Only the two with #37 and #38 RPIs, KSU and Texas, flamed out early. Of course five of the teams that won a game were at least #8 seeds and were somewhat favored, as only WVU was a #9 seed for its opening win before going down to Baylor in the second round. KSU was a #8 seed and Texas a #9.
This year there a 7 teams that finished with a non-winning final 10 record but have an RPI of #31 or better and have a seed #8 or better. So going from last year's experience, Texas A&M, Rutgers, KSU, Louisville, OSU, OK, and Nebraska should be good for 1 to 2 wins, which is certainly not a shocker. But Michigan (4-6, #45, 11-seed), Kansas (3-7 - big ouch, #53, 11-seed) and Texas (5-5, #55, 9-seed) all are well set up to go down fast.
Of course, not all final 10 records are created equal. #3-seed Texas A&M has 3 of its last 5 losses to Baylor, Rutgers has three losses at the end to #1 seeds, and Louisville has two losses recently to #1 seeds. As for KY, which finished 6-4 in the last 10 games and actually saw its RPI go from #12 to #9 over the last three weeks, I'm not expecting them to see UConn but I'm a little less inclined to pick a first round loss against McNeese St. Maybe a flame-out in the 2nd round against the Phoenix or getting blown away by the Cyclones out in Iowa is more in the cards.
