Bracket Math 1.12.15

[huskiesnyc]

Someone's cranky.

When exactly are you not cranky?

 

[CTBasketball]

And that's why nobody takes RealTimeRPI seriously as a bracket-projection source.

It also has a 7-8 St. Louis team and an 8-7 UMass team getting at large bids, so no, no one cares or should

My point taken.

 

[captainron2]

If this bracket were to pan out, it would be UConn vs Providence. Interesting.

 

[pepband99]

It also has a 7-8 St. Louis team and an 8-7 UMass team getting at large bids, so no, no one cares or should

http://bracketmatrix.com/ is the only thing you need to follow - gives a collective ranking based on a ton of brackets. Yes, it lags a bit, but gives you a good look.

 

[Stinger92860]

When exactly are you not cranky?

Someone's cranky.

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the crankiest Boneyarder of them all?

 

[bear]

Both teams' message boards would explode

 

[caw]

They tried to set it up last year.

 

[Caronimo]

We are 9-5 with a long way to go. Nobody is in or out at this point. JUST WIN.

 

[Jerry1714]

We are 9-5 with a long way to go. Nobody is in or out at this point. JUST WIN.

Thanks for the awesome analysis

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It's early yet, but if the American really gets five bids, it might finally convince people not to make sweeping judgments a week into the season.

Let's see what 8 weeks of games against UCF, USF, Houston, ECU, Tulane and Memphis do to everyone else's SOS before we declare victory. Of the 5 "tournament teams", UConn is starting off conference play in the biggest hole at 71 RPI. It will take a lot of wins to get that RPI above 40 with our schedule.

 

[pepband99]

Let's see what 8 weeks of games against UCF, USF, Houston, ECU, Tulane and Memphis do to everyone else's SOS before we declare victory. Of the 5 "tournament teams", UConn is starting off conference play in the biggest hole at 71 RPI. It will take a lot of wins to get that RPI above 40 with our schedule.

IT really won't, though, assuming we can pull out the next 2 away games.

SMU is pretty much guaranteed 2 top 50 games.
Cincy is likely 1 more.

Tulsa is a bit of a wildcard, as is Stanford, but the meat is there. The right mix of away wins and home scalps, and we'll be just fine.

 

[CTBasketball]

IT really won't, though, assuming we can pull out the next 2 away games.

SMU is pretty much guaranteed 2 top 50 games.
Cincy is likely 1 more.

Tulsa is a bit of a wildcard, as is Stanford, but the meat is there. The right mix of away wins and home scalps, and we'll be just fine.

You have to think that for every 6 wins you get, one loss can set you back so far. I think that is what he was referring to.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

You have to think that for every 6 wins you get, one loss can set you back so far. I think that is what he was referring to.

It all depends on who you are losing to. It might take 6 wins to make up for losing to Houston, but not to a team in the top-50.

 

[SubbaBub]

Both teams' message boards would explode

They have a message board? Never understood the PC thing.

That lineup is the other teams worst nightmare, incl. UK. They might say they want revenge, but they really don't want to see us in March regardless of how good the teams are. Same for Nova. Only Utah lacks the emotional baggage to play that game free and easy.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It all depends on who you are losing to. It might take 6 wins to make up for losing to Houston, but not to a team in the top-50.

Not with the RPI. The RPI treats losses and opponents as separate components of the formula.

With the selection committee, you are correct. Bad losses really hurt with the selection committee.

As to Pepband's argument, it isn't true. Over the next month, the P5 and Big East schools RPI's will continue to improve just because they are playing each other, while the other conference's schools RPIs will continue to get worse, for the same reason.

 

[tzznandrew]

Were we to win out, RPIforecast.com suggests we'd end up 14 in the RPI (not counting AAC games).

A 22-8 record (losses at Cincy and SMU, and 1 WTF loss--picked at Tulane since it isn't one of the bottom or the top teams) would put us at 26 in the RPI.

Food for thought. Don't lose bad games, beat Stanford, and win pretty much all the remaining games and we're not in terrible shape.

 

[CTBasketball]

Were we to win out, RPIforecast.com suggests we'd end up 14 in the RPI (not counting AAC games).

A 22-8 record (losses at Cincy and SMU, and 1 WTF loss--picked at Tulane since it isn't one of the bottom or the top teams) would put us at 26 in the RPI.

Food for thought. Don't lose bad games, beat Stanford, and win pretty much all the remaining games and we're not in terrible shape.

Yep essentially. I think we need to go 23-7 and 24-6 and win the AAC Tournament to get a top 6 seed though. Which will be tough. I think we'll be anywhere from a 7-12 as long as we don't self destruct.