Bracket Math 1.12.15

[Jerry1714]

• IN (19, in S-curve order): 26. Stanford, 27. Old Dominion, 28. Cincinnati, 29. San Diego St, 30. Michigan State, 31. Iowa, 32. Ohio State, 33. Xavier, 34. Georgetown, 35. Dayton, 36. Colorado State, 37. George Washington, 38. Oklahoma State, 39. Southern Methodist, 40. Temple, 41. Connecticut

Last four in: 42. NC State, 43. Louisiana State, 44. Indiana, 45. Syracuse

Also interesting:
Conference breakdown
• Big East (6)
• American (5) - UConn, Tulsa, Temple, SMU and Cincy.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Where is this from?

nvm, found it: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-col...e-joe-lunardi-bracket-math-college-basketball

 

[Jerry1714]

Where is this from?

nvm, found it: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-col...e-joe-lunardi-bracket-math-college-basketball

Sorry forgot the link, that is right one.

 

[Inyatkin]

It's early yet, but if the American really gets five bids, it might finally convince people not to make sweeping judgments a week into the season.

 

[Fishy]

And if it doesn't, it might finally convince people not to make sweeping judgements about sweeping judgements two weeks into January.

 

[Inyatkin]

And if it doesn't, it might finally convince people not to make sweeping judgements about sweeping judgements two weeks into January.

Right, because that's what I did.

 

[Fishy]

Someone's cranky.

 

[CallMeBruce]

It's early yet, but if the American really gets five bids, it might finally convince people not to make sweeping judgments a week into the season.

They won't. Even if he's right that all five deserve it, I'd be surprised if more than 2-3 actually got bids based on current resumes.

 

[tzznandrew]

I'll say it: no way the American gets 5 schools in. It's just not happening.

Tulsa has an RPI of 38, but their best win is against Temple, and they have a loss to Oral Roberts.
Temple has an RPI of 41, and the Kansas win...but they've hardly been competitive in other major games against healthy teams.

It's really going to be SMU, Cincy, and UConn, provided those teams don't implode. And maybe one of the others. If Temple or Tulsa runs the table in the league, they push out one or both of those initial three.

I hope I'm wrong. Getting 5 schools in would be great, but they are only the 8th best school by RPI (9th in Sagarin).

 

[mwc22]

 

[mwc22]

By the end of the season I am assuming Tulsa gets beat up and most likely ends up an NIT team. However, I think UConn, SMU, Cincinnati are definites and Temple will sneak in using that Kansas upset.

 

[BFieldHusky]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Palm has 5 American teams in, with UConn as a 9 seed.

Big week ahead for us. 2 wins could really put us in good shape for the stretch run.

 

[tzznandrew]

By the end of the season I am assuming Tulsa gets beat up and most likely ends up an NIT team. However, I think UConn, SMU, Cincinnati are definites and Temple will sneak in using that Kansas upset.

I hardly think UConn, SMU or Cincy are definites, but I think they have a good shot to rack up a bunch of wins, but none of them have signature wins.

Temple does have 1, but their resume is similarly unimpressive.

Remember, last year Louisville was in the league, and the league had 2 First Team AAs, and 1 Second Team AA who just missed the cut. They were in the conversation, and some of the teams had signature wins (UConn over Florida)...yet they didn't get 5. Swapping Louisville for Tulsa and Rutgers for ECU and Tulane hasn't helped (ECU worse than last year's Rutgers, Tulane better).

 

[aceboon]

I'll say it: no way the American gets 5 schools in. It's just not happening.

Tulsa has an RPI of 38, but their best win is against Temple, and they have a loss to Oral Roberts.
Temple has an RPI of 41, and the Kansas win...but they've hardly been competitive in other major games against healthy teams.

It's really going to be SMU, Cincy, and UConn, provided those teams don't implode. And maybe one of the others. If Temple or Tulsa runs the table in the league, they push out one or both of those initial three.

I hope I'm wrong. Getting 5 schools in would be great, but they are only the 8th best school by RPI (9th in Sagarin).

In fairness to Temple they didn't have their full roster in the early beginning against non conf teams, they were missing Morgan and another transfer(name escapes me at the moment). They would've had a better chance at beating UNLV if they them.

 

[Inyatkin]

I don't think five is likely. But you look at the bottom of that S-curve, and the teams that just miss, it doesn't seem that crazy.

 

[tzznandrew]

In fairness to Temple they didn't have their full roster in the early beginning against non conf teams, they were missing Morgan and another transfer(name escapes me at the moment). They would've had a better chance at beating UNLV if they them.

That's true. But injuries and suspensions are going to make the American difficult to judge for the NCAAs: Kennedy for SMU, Morgan + Coleman for Temple, variously Boat/Purvis/Calhoun for UConn.

The league looks better to us now than it did in the beginning of the year, but if last year is any guide, we're getting 1 fewer team than we think, and getting dropped 2-3 seedlines more than we would expect.

 

[lange10]

I don't know how CBS works in their Bracketology but ESPN has Tulsa in as an automatic bid because they currently are leading the AAC. I'm sure Lunardi doesn't believe they're worthy of an at-large big.

All said and done I think we get 4 teams in. Temple is a team that by the eye test should get in. They struggled a bit out of the gates but once all their transfers were eligible and they got healthy they became a good team. So if they go 14-4 in conference play (very feasible for this temple team) they would be 23-8 and in my mind a team deserving of the tourny. As for us, SMU and Cincy I'd like to say by seasons end we are locks.

 

[Jerry1714]

For all the people who complained about our OOC schedule, 5 teams in that bracket and I think Florida finds its way in at the end of the year making 6.

 

[tzznandrew]

I don't know how CBS works in their Bracketology but ESPN has Tulsa in as an automatic bid because they currently are leading the AAC. I'm sure Lunardi doesn't believe they're worthy of an at-large big.

All said and done I think we get 4 teams in. Temple is a team that by the eye test should get in. They struggled a bit out of the gates but once all their transfers were eligible and they got healthy they became a good team. So if they go 14-4 in conference play (very feasible for this temple team) they would be 23-8 and in my mind a team deserving of the tourny. As for us, SMU and Cincy I'd like to say by seasons end we are locks.

We'll see. A 23-8 Temple team that doesn't flame out in the AAC should make it.

As should a 22-8 UConn team in similar circumstances.

The problem is that the league's bottom is so weak that any slip-up ends the season--like SMU vs. Houston in AAC tournament last year.

 

[tzznandrew]

For all the people who complained about our OOC schedule, 5 teams in that bracket and I think Florida finds its way in at the end of the year making 6.

Yeah, people complaining about our schedule should STFU. Duke-Florida-Stanford-Texas is a good quartet of OOC games. And both Dayton and WVU are turning out to be very good teams. Dayton is our only RPI Top 25 win.

We can't help it if Florida, and to a lesser extent, Texas and Stanford, are underachieving.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Others have pointed this out while I was typing this, but Tulsa is getting the AAC's auto bid in these simulations, not an at-large bid.

The chances of 5 getting in are very low unless all 5 of those teams only lose to each other from here on out (and even that might not be enough for whoever finishes fifth). As bad as they are, Memphis and Tulane will find a way to pick off a couple of wins against that group, and even a single loss to the Houston/ECU/USF/UCF group would be devastating.

None of the five have big margins for error. So while they may be in for now, they still have to make it through a minefield of "no-win" type games.

 

[johnhuskies95]

I hardly think UConn, SMU or Cincy are definites, but I think they have a good shot to rack up a bunch of wins, but none of them have signature wins.

Temple does have 1, but their resume is similarly unimpressive.

Remember, last year Louisville was in the league, and the league had 2 First Team AAs, and 1 Second Team AA who just missed the cut. They were in the conversation, and some of the teams had signature wins (UConn over Florida)...yet they didn't get 5. Swapping Louisville for Tulsa and Rutgers for ECU and Tulane hasn't helped (ECU worse than last year's Rutgers, Tulane better).

I don't think Dayton will stay in the top 15 of the RPI, and it's obviously still early, but they're rolling in league play. They should be up there at the end of the year.

If they can somehow pick off VCU on the road their RPI might even stay in the top 20.

 

[CTBasketball]

If anyone cares, RealTimeRPI has their bracket up (dated from just before midnight 1/11/15) and has 4 AAC teams in. Temple, SMU, Tulsa, and Cincinnati in that order. We're listed as the 20th best team not listed.

 

[tzznandrew]

If anyone cares, RealTimeRPI has their bracket up (dated from just before midnight 1/11/15) and has 4 AAC teams in. Temple, SMU, Tulsa, and Cincinnati in that order. We're listed as the 20th best team not listed.

And that's why nobody takes RealTimeRPI seriously as a bracket-projection source.

 

[Jerry1714]

If anyone cares, RealTimeRPI has their bracket up (dated from just before midnight 1/11/15) and has 4 AAC teams in. Temple, SMU, Tulsa, and Cincinnati in that order. We're listed as the 20th best team not listed.

It also has a 7-8 St. Louis team and an 8-7 UMass team getting at large bids, so no, no one cares or should