Bouk nailed to the bench in opener

[Dean Wormer]

The NBA guaranteed money is not really as conditional as you make it seem. It's basically impossible not to get 2 years which for a lottery pick is at minimum $6 million and overwhelming likely to get 4 for at least $15 (Bouk is getting $8.5 with 4 year upside of $19.2). Because even if 1 team doesn't like you, you're an asset on the books and they can trade you to a more risky/patient team with the 2nd team hoping the experience or their developmental infrastructure rattles you into line. The OTE money is not even in the same ballpark with we're assuming more strings attached. You're misconstruing or misunderstanding the argument: It isn't to always take any guaranteed money, it's to definitely take set for life guaranteed money. $6/$15+ million fits that description.

I admit this part is more my opinion/preference, but you're over-emphasizing the second contract. The most important contract if you're a lottery or mid 1st round pick is the 1st, as this is what sets your family up with lifetime security. If you were a 2nd round pick or maybe late 1st or in the NFL, then yes, the 2nd contract is the important one. But if you've already made $20 million, you don't NEED a 2nd contract, even if it is larger. Sure it's great to have, and you can do a lot of good with it, but it doesn't really offer any additional security since the 1st took care of all of it. So when you're talking about strategic mistakes, I think the strategic mistake would be risking your family's lifetime security by returning to school.

For some players returning to college is less risky than others, but the ironic thing about your argument is that if you're arguing that he needs maturity and has off the court question marks, then it is MORE likely that something happens to tank his stock in the future. It is actually riskier for him than others. Your implication is that UConn or Hurley are strong enough forces to heal whatever mystery ails him and so returning would better prepare him for the NBA, but apparently it didn't happen in 2 years. The NBA has MORE staff per player than college programs do and more resources per player AND much more invested in him financially, so your argument about UConn focusing more on him is hogwash.

Agree. The bottom line is whether he’s getting paid while working at his chosen profession, or doing it for free and getting a piece of paper.
Nobody here would do anything differently than what Bouk or these other guys did. It’s about putting yourself in position to take advantage of the opportunity, not waiting for the perfect scenario. Anyone who says that a kid needs to wait before taking guaranteed contract $$, is being selfish and delusional.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Don’t know what people are worried about here. He has the talent, he will figure things out. It’s not a big deal this early in his career.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Don’t know what people are worried about here. He has the talent, he will figure things out. It’s not a big deal this early in his career.

More than one coach has been fired based on that belief.

Not particular to Bouk, but some never figure it out. Assuming they'll all figure it out in the time frame where what they figure out is at a time the player still has values is a risky proposition. Or, said another way, by the time they figure it out, it's too late.

 

[Chief00]

Yes, Chief's approach made more sense when the NBA money was smaller and wasn't guaranteed. $6M is life-securing if it is handled frugally and conservatively (which it all too rarely is - it's easy to assume more is coming and spend it or give it away, or make risky investments).

There are no guarantees that a player will develop in either college or the pros. Bouk and his advisors have to decide which place is better for his development. College is more patient, but pros provide full-time support. What does Bouk need more, patience or coaching?

I have no idea myself, but with the financial benefits of going pro, it's hard to choose college. Worst case, the NBA gives up on him, he would still get a chance to develop in Europe.

It’s amazing how little confidence so many here have in James long term. Andre Drummond has made $137 million but James should be happy making a few million before the team finds an excuse to execute a disqualifier in his contract or find out he’s not a good player. That’s the type of thinking Bezos hopes players and their inexperience advisors have regarding his OTE investment. So in a sense, all you guys are on the other side of the betting table from Bezos. Good luck.

 

[pj]

It’s amazing how little confidence so many here have in James long term. Andre Drummond has made $137 million but James should be happy making a few million before the team finds an excuse to execute a disqualifier in his contract or find out he’s not a good player. That’s the type of thinking Bezos hopes players and their inexperience advisors have regarding his OTE investment. So in a sense, all you guys are on the other side of the betting table from Bezos. Good luck.

Chief, it's not a question of confidence in James -- the question is whether he will have a better career if he started his pro career in 2021 or 2022. You can think he'll be a Hall of Famer either way, and still wonder which course would be best for him. Michael Jordan started in the pros at age 21 and we can argue over whether he would have a better or worse career if he'd started in the NBA at age 20 or 22 -- but I'm pretty sure he'd be in the Hall of Fame any of those ways.

Similarly James is now 21 and if he'd spent another year in college he'd be 22 at the start of his NBA career. He might become a Hall of Famer, in which case he'd probably achieve that no matter which year he started in the NBA. He might wash out of the NBA, in which case that would probably happen no matter which year he started in the NBA.

Personally, I have confidence James will have an excellent career. Probably not as good as Ray Allen or Rip Hamilton, but maybe within shouting distance of them. Jeremy Lamb, a 12th pick in the draft, might be a good comp.

The consensus of the board is that whatever difference an extra year of college would make in his career outcome, it's not worth the money he'd lose by starting his pro career a year later. And that's what I agree with.

 

[Chief00]

The consensus of the board is that whatever difference an extra year of college would make in his career outcome, it's not worth the money he'd lose by starting his pro career a year later. And that's what I agree with.

@pj let’s be honest, the consensus on this board hasn’t exactly nailed this one. In fact, many in that consensus seem to be denial dealing with what has happened to date. What we are really talking about is delaying 1 season to be better able to capitalized on his window of opportunity. The window of opportunity is often a brief one in the NBA and getting back to The League has proven to be very difficult for many guys.
He can more than make up that 4 million in a blink of an eye in his second contract if gets off to a good start during that window that you won’t likely get back.

 

[huskiesNhoos]

Kuminga and Moody both sent to G league (Kuminga already recalled, but likely to be heading back) in case anyone needed precedent for lottery picks (in Bouk's draft class even) going that route rather than getting immediate PT

 

[Northbound]

Everyone here wants the guy to succeed, but he currently has fundamental flaws that any objective observer could/can see.

1) Does not have an NBA body
2) Isn’t a strong defender
3) Doesn’t create for others

It’s not the end of the world. It’ll come down to how much he wants to work at it.

He needs to learn thst Its a cold world even when its hot outside

 

[auror]

It’s amazing how little confidence so many here have in James long term.

This is rich coming from the guy saying he wasn't ready and should go back to school? Someone with confidence with a guy would say if he's a lottery pick he should go and figure it out.

 

[UconnU]

Watching the game, Lamelo Ball is an absolute stud. Not many guards in the league playing better right now.

 

[Chief00]

Watching the game, Lamelo Ball is an absolute stud. Not many guards in the league playing better right now.

Yes, Ball is a stud and it starts with his understanding of the game and his creative passing ability. When Chief sits down with a young gun, Chief always reminds them how important these two things are to success. Is my good friend in Charlotte or is it Greensboro listening?

 

[Psolo12]

Yes, Ball is a stud and it starts with his understanding of the game and his creative passing ability. When Chief sits down with a young gun, Chief always reminds them how important these two things are to success. Is my good friend in Charlotte or is it Greensboro listening?

You sit down with prominent young NBA guards and tell them that they need to understand the game and be creative with their passing? Do you hear yourself sometimes?

 

[8893]

You sit down with prominent young NBA guards and tell them that they need to understand the game and be creative with their passing?

Please dude, don't be ridiculous: not just the guards, all of them.

 

[HooperScooper]

Please dude, don't be ridiculous: not just the guards, all of them.

LeBron wouldn't have been LeBron without Chief.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

This is such a useless argument. It has nothing to do with Bouknight. It has to do with Chief needing to not only be right, but have everyone else be wrong. Bouknight can turn into a stud in this league and with 100% certainty, we all know Chief will be here telling us how he would have been even better had he stayed another year.

 

[pj]

@pj let’s be honest, the consensus on this board hasn’t exactly nailed this one. In fact, many in that consensus seem to be denial dealing with what has happened to date. What we are really talking about is delaying 1 season to be better able to capitalized on his window of opportunity. The window of opportunity is often a brief one in the NBA and getting back to The League has proven to be very difficult for many guys.
He can more than make up that 4 million in a blink of an eye in his second contract if gets off to a good start during that window that you won’t likely get back.

Hi Chief, maybe you're right, but we Internet observers are too far removed from James and his personal situation to reach the conclusion you've reached. I'd guess that for 95% of players, the right decision would be to take the NBA money. Maybe James falls in the 5% for whom more time in college would bring more benefits than millions of NBA dollars and full-tine NBA coaching. But we can't know that. You may be closer to the situation than the rest of us, but James and his family and advisors are even closer and they thought the NBA was his best option. I won't second guess them.

 

[Chief00]

Hi Chief, maybe you're right, but we Internet observers are too far removed from James and his personal situation to reach the conclusion you've reached. I'd guess that for 95% of players, the right decision would be to take the NBA money. Maybe James falls in the 5% for whom more time in college would bring more benefits than millions of NBA dollars and full-tine NBA coaching. But we can't know that. You may be closer to the situation than the rest of us, but James and his family and advisors are even closer and they thought the NBA was his best option. I won't second guess them.

Generally good post, but I would question the accolades about James advisors. While they were physically closer to the situation, their amateur hour approach really did James a disservice. I remember James sitting there draft night after apparently being told he was a top 5 or 6 by the yes men. While it was just half a dozen picks to 11, watching the it unfold in slow motion was really painful and all preventable.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Generally good post, but I would question the accolades about James advisors. While they were physically closer to the situation, their amateur hour approach really did James a disservice. I remember James sitting there draft night after apparently being told he was a top 5 or 6 by the yes men. While it was just half a dozen picks to 11, watching the it unfold in slow motion was really painful and all preventable.

Leading up to draft day, you said he should stay in school because he wasn't a lottery pick. Don't move the goalposts. Just stop.

 

[Chief00]

Leading up to draft day, you said he should stay in school because he wasn't a lottery pick. Don't move the goalposts. Just stop.

That’s not what I said. Initially, Chief had James 15-17 but then with the tragic death of a player slotted above him, he would be 14-16. He went 11. Then, I was kicked out of the thread due to complaints from uninformed people like you. James did improve his draft position to 7-9 per one scout I talked to who worked for a team without a lottery pick. But, of course teams that had those picks did more research.
But, all that is missing the point, which you excel at. It wasn’t in his long term interest, it would have been better to stay in school and mature both as a person and basketball wise. The money would take care of itself if he did that. Again, we are talking about a one year delay.

 

[CTBasketball]

G League James lol

He’ll get his shot but he has to work for it. I also think he needs to get out of Charlotte.

 

[Get a Job]

That’s not what I said. Initially, Chief had James 15-17 but then with the tragic death of a player slotted above him, he would be 14-16. He went 11. Then, I was kicked out of the thread due to complaints from uninformed people like you. James did improve his draft position to 7-9 per one scout I talked to who worked for a team without a lottery pick. But, of course teams that had those picks did more research.
But, all that is missing the point, which you excel at. It wasn’t in his long term interest, it would have been better to stay in school and mature both as a person and basketball wise. The money would take care of itself if he did that. Again, we are talking about a one year delay.

What are the odds that something could have happened to him in his next year that could have resulted in a loss of ability to earn money from basketball? Are those odds greater than 0? If so, the possible scenarios are:

1. Enter draft. 100% chance of making a few million dollars. Decent chance of making dozens of millions.
2. Stay another year. High probability of making more money than scenario 1 (taking your argument for granted), BUT a non-zero probability of making $0 in basketball. Also a non-zero chance of being able to play professionally, but still make far less than scenario 1.

Why would you ever advise someone to take option 2?

 

[Chief00]

What are the odds that something could have happened to him in his next year that could have resulted in a loss of ability to earn money from basketball? Are those odds greater than 0? If so, the possible scenarios are:

1. Enter draft. 100% chance of making a few million dollars. Decent chance of making dozens of millions.
2. Stay another year. High probability of making more money than scenario 1 (taking your argument for granted), BUT a non-zero probability of making $0 in basketball. Also a non-zero chance of being able to play professionally, but still make far less than scenario 1.

Why would you ever advise someone to take option 2?

Excellence isn’t with zero risks. How many people who rise to the tops of their profession take that approach. I also must remind everyone top college players are insured.
Chief has successfully mentored people in business and it’s always about building the foundation the early years - not about no risks or a few dollars earlier.

 

[krinklecut]

Excellence isn’t with zero risks. How many people who rise to the tops of their profession take that approach. I also must remind everyone top college players are insured.
Chief has successfully mentored people in business and it’s always about building the foundation the early years - not about no risks or a few dollars earlier.

Being able to provide for your family and remove them from a less-than-ideal situation as quickly as you can is not “a few dollars earlier.” Good god.

 

[husky429]

What are the odds that something could have happened to him in his next year that could have resulted in a loss of ability to earn money from basketball? Are those odds greater than 0? If so, the possible scenarios are:

1. Enter draft. 100% chance of making a few million dollars. Decent chance of making dozens of millions.
2. Stay another year. High probability of making more money than scenario 1 (taking your argument for granted), BUT a non-zero probability of making $0 in basketball. Also a non-zero chance of being able to play professionally, but still make far less than scenario 1.

Why would you ever advise someone to take option 2?

Well, some people are really, really stupid. It's a good thing our coaching staff is not.

 

[Chin Diesel]

G League James lol

He’ll get his shot but he has to work for it. I also think he needs to get out of Charlotte.

G League James. Has a ring to it like Playoff P.