Bilas on Uconn left out of expansion | Page 9 | The Boneyard

Bilas on Uconn left out of expansion

You have to realize, ESPN doesn't care about FSU or Clemson. If they whither, they tell the story of the one-time great program and they use the remaining fan-base to fill out secondary network time-slots... filling the prime time slots with SEC teams whom they already own.

They aren't going to move into an arrangement where they pay more than twice the value for 13 other properties (counting Notre Dame's partial share); to double the pay for 2 particular properties... whose rights they already own, it's bad business... to those same bean-counters. They will pay an absurd price for the NBA soon, the premium properties will continue to get dollars, but they aren't going to compete against themselves to pay a premium for two good college football programs.

Plus looking near term, what's more valuable for ESPN? Florida State or Clemson becoming just another program in an SEC that's already stacked? Adding more losses to the potentially premium properties. Casual fans tune into premium/blue blood/dynasty programs. FSU or Clemson as perennial 10+ win teams; conference champions in the playoffs draws a bigger number than FSU or Clemson as 4th team out of the SEC with a 9-3 mark. The argument seems to be predicated that FSU/Clemson have far more value as just another SEC team?

Disney's not worried about developing FSU or Clemson. Nor are they worried if they fall off before they'd be available to the SEC. They are worried about driving ratings now, they'll figure out 2028, 2030, 2035 when they get there. FSU - LSU drives a number as an interconference attraction and can be arranged in premium spots with little competition (like the season opening Sunday night) where it's special and a loss for FSU means they might finish 12-1 before the playoff instead of 13-0. FSU - LSU week 7 is another SEC regular season game (albeit a nice one). It has significantly more competition than that season kickoff and features 4-2 LSU vs. 5-1 FSU. By the end of the season that FSU property that looked great in the playoff as a seed protected ACC champ at 13-1; is the 8-seeded seminoles at 9-3. That 8-9 matchup against the Pac-12 champion or heaven forbid a 9-3 Iowa team; is much less valuable.



FSU & Clemson fans are twisting themselves in knots worried about how they stay competitive financially for the next decade (much the way UConn fans have) and have convinced themselves that ESPN/Disney care specifically about the value of their programs long-term. They don't. They aren't going to invest in paying FSU/Clemson more to prop up what would be mid-tier value SEC properties; while then dramatically overpaying the remaining ACC teams to stave off lawsuits. They'll continue to leverage FSU and Clemson's current value, hope the two schools figure it out and worry about the rest when they get there.
 
billybud said:
FSU has H@H's scheduled with LSU, Bama, Georgia, and they have the annual rivalry game with Florida....low level signalling.
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No signaling... just ESPN happily enjoying 8 premium matchups; 4 of which come at a reduced rate under the ACC rights... that potential profit subsidizing the overpayment ESPN is currently making to have to air that Pitt-UNC game in secondary timeslot.


Ultimately I'd happily be wrong.. chaos and change is UConn's friend to potentially finding a better home for its programs. However if you're looking at the ACC without Garnet/Gold or Orange/Purple glasses, it's hard to find a deal that works for the schools, the conferences AND Disney/ESPN that ends with FSU & Clemson in the SEC before it gets to a point where FSU/Clemson are willing to buyout the decade left on the GOR
 
FSU sets its OOC schedule...

I enjoyed the matches in the way back with the BIG...but the B1G did not want to come to Tallahassee...played two in Columbus, two in Michigan's Big House, Indiana, home and home (bless 'em) with Michigan State.

You may be right about ESPN/FSU/Clemson....time will tell.
 
ScottVib said:
You have to realize, ESPN doesn't care about FSU or Clemson. If they whither, they tell the story of the one-time great program and they use the remaining fan-base to fill out secondary network time-slots... filling the prime time slots with SEC teams whom they already own.

They aren't going to move into an arrangement where they pay more than twice the value for 13 other properties (counting Notre Dame's partial share); to double the pay for 2 particular properties... whose rights they already own, it's bad business... to those same bean-counters. They will pay an absurd price for the NBA soon, the premium properties will continue to get dollars, but they aren't going to compete against themselves to pay a premium for two good college football programs.

Plus looking near term, what's more valuable for ESPN? Florida State or Clemson becoming just another program in an SEC that's already stacked? Adding more losses to the potentially premium properties. Casual fans tune into premium/blue blood/dynasty programs. FSU or Clemson as perennial 10+ win teams; conference champions in the playoffs draws a bigger number than FSU or Clemson as 4th team out of the SEC with a 9-3 mark. The argument seems to be predicated that FSU/Clemson have far more value as just another SEC team?

Disney's not worried about developing FSU or Clemson. Nor are they worried if they fall off before they'd be available to the SEC. They are worried about driving ratings now, they'll figure out 2028, 2030, 2035 when they get there. FSU - LSU drives a number as an interconference attraction and can be arranged in premium spots with little competition (like the season opening Sunday night) where it's special and a loss for FSU means they might finish 12-1 before the playoff instead of 13-0. FSU - LSU week 7 is another SEC regular season game (albeit a nice one). It has significantly more competition than that season kickoff and features 4-2 LSU vs. 5-1 FSU. By the end of the season that FSU property that looked great in the playoff as a seed protected ACC champ at 13-1; is the 8-seeded seminoles at 9-3. That 8-9 matchup against the Pac-12 champion or heaven forbid a 9-3 Iowa team; is much less valuable.



FSU & Clemson fans are twisting themselves in knots worried about how they stay competitive financially for the next decade (much the way UConn fans have) and have convinced themselves that ESPN/Disney care specifically about the value of their programs long-term. They don't. They aren't going to invest in paying FSU/Clemson more to prop up what would be mid-tier value SEC properties; while then dramatically overpaying the remaining ACC teams to stave off lawsuits. They'll continue to leverage FSU and Clemson's current value, hope the two schools figure it out and worry about the rest when they get there.
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Great football programs and their traditions become that way because of one thing, great coaching, no if’s, and’s, or but’s.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
All GOR’s are not equal, the one that binds ACC schools to the conference is like an anchor from a Nimitz class aircraft carrier while I would compare the Big 12’s version to a bicycle lock. Clemson, Miami and especially FSU would have jumped ship years ago if they could’ve. The only alternative they have is to negotiate with and get Notre Dame to join in join in football too, Let’s not forget the history that Virginia Tech has in football too when Frank Beamer coached them. If Notre Dame is interested, and they might be with certain stipulations, then the ACC immediately has a 6 or 7 team nucleus that they can build on, not to mention a lock on basketball and March Madness. At that point they could to do some poaching themselves, the SEC and B1G have no GOR whatsoever. At that point with continuing improvement in Football and both basketball programs, as well as baseball and ice hockey, UConn becomes very very attractive. The ACC is far far from being picked apart. I would not count out John Swofford just yet.
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Does UConn's desire (really mine) for a B10 invite benefit from the ACC's GOR seemingly onerous contract length and costs?
 
.-.
noeynox said:
Pure fantasy that espn is gonna facilitate Clemson and FSU to go to the SEC to pay them double AND keep the rest of the ACC whole in the process.
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This is exactly why I don't think the ACC implodes - at least not for another 7-10 years. I really don't see how/why ESPN is going to help the SEC add teams that ESPN already controls at double the price unless these teams move for a partial share. And I am not convinced the SEC schools really want more serious competition in their league. Sure, add UVA or UNC, those schools aren't going to hurt the SEC stalwarts, but Clemson and FSU possibly pushing on Georgia and Florida- don't think so.
 
Seamus84 said:
Does UConn's desire (really mine) for a B10 invite benefit from the ACC's GOR seemingly onerous contract length and costs?
Expand ...
It might, but only if that desire includes settling for being another Northwestern football team for the next 10 years. That being said, coaching is everything in Basketball or Football. I can see Benedict using the ACC as a prop to get the B1G to make a snap decision. Then again UConn would have to become or at least give the impression of working on an AAU membership?
 
Exit 4 said:
This is exactly why I don't think the ACC implodes - at least not for another 7-10 years. I really don't see how/why ESPN is going to help the SEC add teams that ESPN already controls at double the price unless these teams move for a partial share. And I am not convinced the SEC schools really want more serious competition in their league. Sure, add UVA or UNC, those schools aren't going to hurt the SEC stalwarts, but Clemson and FSU possibly pushing on Georgia and Florida- don't think so.
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Agreed, but Notre Dame plays a role in this too. Don’t they?
 
Seamus84 said:
Does UConn's desire (really mine) for a B10 invite benefit from the ACC's GOR seemingly onerous contract length and costs?
Expand ...
Seems like it's akin to Tom and Giselle getting divorced and whether you and she then get married.
 
ScottVib said:
You have to realize, ESPN doesn't care about FSU or Clemson. If they whither, they tell the story of the one-time great program and they use the remaining fan-base to fill out secondary network time-slots... filling the prime time slots with SEC teams whom they already own.

They aren't going to move into an arrangement where they pay more than twice the value for 13 other properties (counting Notre Dame's partial share); to double the pay for 2 particular properties... whose rights they already own, it's bad business... to those same bean-counters. They will pay an absurd price for the NBA soon, the premium properties will continue to get dollars, but they aren't going to compete against themselves to pay a premium for two good college football programs.

Plus looking near term, what's more valuable for ESPN? Florida State or Clemson becoming just another program in an SEC that's already stacked? Adding more losses to the potentially premium properties. Casual fans tune into premium/blue blood/dynasty programs. FSU or Clemson as perennial 10+ win teams; conference champions in the playoffs draws a bigger number than FSU or Clemson as 4th team out of the SEC with a 9-3 mark. The argument seems to be predicated that FSU/Clemson have far more value as just another SEC team?

Disney's not worried about developing FSU or Clemson. Nor are they worried if they fall off before they'd be available to the SEC. They are worried about driving ratings now, they'll figure out 2028, 2030, 2035 when they get there. FSU - LSU drives a number as an interconference attraction and can be arranged in premium spots with little competition (like the season opening Sunday night) where it's special and a loss for FSU means they might finish 12-1 before the playoff instead of 13-0. FSU - LSU week 7 is another SEC regular season game (albeit a nice one). It has significantly more competition than that season kickoff and features 4-2 LSU vs. 5-1 FSU. By the end of the season that FSU property that looked great in the playoff as a seed protected ACC champ at 13-1; is the 8-seeded seminoles at 9-3. That 8-9 matchup against the Pac-12 champion or heaven forbid a 9-3 Iowa team; is much less valuable.



FSU & Clemson fans are twisting themselves in knots worried about how they stay competitive financially for the next decade (much the way UConn fans have) and have convinced themselves that ESPN/Disney care specifically about the value of their programs long-term. They don't. They aren't going to invest in paying FSU/Clemson more to prop up what would be mid-tier value SEC properties; while then dramatically overpaying the remaining ACC teams to stave off lawsuits. They'll continue to leverage FSU and Clemson's current value, hope the two schools figure it out and worry about the rest when they get there.
Expand ...
The argument I keep reading is why would espn pay more for rights it already owns, and I don't get that argument at all. The B1G and SEC can apparently pay $100 million per for programs like Northwestern, Vandy, Miss State. How? Because they are able to charge much more than they are paying, I assume, to make a profit. FSU and Clemson would certainly increase the revenue streams and I would have to conclude that, based on however the B1G and SEC models work, FSU and Clemson would bring in more revenue on average to the P2 conferences than they bring to the ACC. Plus, espn could lock the 2 best available football programs into the SEC while the B1G ends up with UVA and UNC, further solidifying the SEC as king.

As for the ACC, espn already has it over the barrel on the cheap. If it lost a couple programs and brought in a couple 4 brand programs, it's possible the ACC might not be harmed financially while its basketball could improve. It's not clear whether the main goal is short term profits or the long game.
 
.-.
noeynox said:
Pure fantasy that espn is gonna facilitate Clemson and FSU to go to the SEC to pay them double AND keep the rest of the ACC whole in the process.
Expand ...
Agree, but if you drop everything after, and including the conjunction, it becomes a possibility.
 
The ACC did not become better with realignment. All of the BE schools are now going to be locked out. Basketball has fallen off so much for those schools as well. They also burned bridges with the New BE. They will become the new AAC.
 
ScottVib said:
Plus looking near term, what's more valuable for ESPN? Florida State or Clemson becoming just another program in an SEC that's already stacked?
Expand ...

Perhaps, if it means that they can pay a lower amount to the remaining ACC teams, such that it more than offsets the premium they would pay to FSU and Clemson. Of course, that would mean funding the raid of an existing media, partner, and essentially kicking it to the curb. It’s hard to imagine any corporate entity being that vicious and unethical.

Or is it?
 
Seamus84 said:
Does UConn's desire (really mine) for a B10 invite benefit from the ACC's GOR seemingly onerous contract length and costs?
Expand ...
It does in that it gives us time. If we can improve our research standing and become a competent football program we would have a legitimate shot at receiving an offer from the B1G when they look to add schools like UVA and UNC. Logically, we will need a decade to accomplish this (we would need quite a bit off success on the research end to do this in a decade).

I doubt that anything is etched in stone but I still believe the B1G has kicked around the possibility of adding us and UVA to cover the DC to Boston corridor. We have work to do to get there.
 
15 years is a long time from now...when the ACC GOR terminates.

Things will be very different....Haves and have nots may separate even more....semi pro teams versus programs that eschew going that route.

And, by then, the constellations may have already been formed....things settled out.
 
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