Bilas on Uconn left out of expansion | Page 8 | The Boneyard

Bilas on Uconn left out of expansion

upstater said:
Of course there will be more than 2, but I'm talking about a big 2. No more Power 5. No more Power 4. When the SEC and B1G swallow up the ACC, the other conferences really won't matter (for football).
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What teams from the ACC would go to the B1G?
 
CTFAN4LIFE said:
I think you just made my point for me in that college presidents are prioritizing many other aspects of their jobs over athletics and therefore aren't playing a war game of territory- taking. And, by the B1G bringing in 3 schools over a 12 year period to date, that's one every four years. That doesn't feel like territory taking to me. That feels like thoughtful/selective additions guided by tv revenue growth strategy. What else could you explain it to be?
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Just wondering if you know the B1G well.

Because the refrain from all the football coaches and ADs over many, many years has been the talent deficit because the vast majority of good football players are from the SE. They've been eyeing Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and even the DC area + Virginia for generations. This is crucial for them. I can't emphasize enough how much they want ACC territory.
 
upstater said:
Just wondering if you know the B1G well.

Because the refrain from all the football coaches and ADs over many, many years has been the talent deficit because the vast majority of good football players are from the SE. They've been eyeing Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and even the DC area + Virginia for generations. This is crucial for them. I can't emphasize enough how much they want ACC territory.
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They definitely want to get stronger ties into the best recruiting areas; they always have and always will. All these programs in every sport can and do find talent outside of their regions. Hell, even RE 1.0 /his staff had a decent pipeline to south Florida.

In the pre-NIL era it was mostly about relationships with high school coaches. In the NIL era it is about those relationships but also money opportunities. Thr B1G schools have always been pretty well positioned to get their share of NFL caliber talent - no matter where they lived. They have had and do still have the barrier of attracting top level southern/western high school talent to places in the rust belt/great lakes tundra areas.

It will be interesting to see if now above-board NIL money can sway more of that talent into B1G schools. And, to your point as they add a few western and southern schools in the years ahead it should help attract a few more southern/western kids that can get a game or two close/somewhat close to their home so mom and dad can catch a game a bit more easily.
 
upstater said:
Just wondering if you know the B1G well.

Because the refrain from all the football coaches and ADs over many, many years has been the talent deficit because the vast majority of good football players are from the SE. They've been eyeing Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and even the DC area + Virginia for generations. This is crucial for them. I can't emphasize enough how much they want ACC territory.
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After the ACC,GOR lapses, or at least when it’s getting close, we will see if this is correct. I believe it is.
 
CL82 said:
After the ACC,GOR lapses, or at least when it’s getting close, we will see if this is correct. I believe it is.
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Agree. The other thing the southern and western state presence does for the B1G schools is provide more local ties to their alumns that live in or snow bird to warmer climes. It's just another way to monetize their fanbase and donors.
 
Some interesting comments. Not sure if he was serious about playing by the rules by my guess is, no one is: https://www.si.com/college/2023/04/13/unc-mack-brown-coach-football-on-nil-pay-for-play

"“We’re the NFL. We’re the mini-NFL,” says the 71-year-old Brown, the oldest active FBS head coach who enters his fifth season of his second stint at North Carolina. “It’s just like the NFL. That’s where we are headed. We will never see amateurism again. It’s gone. I hate it. I thought that’s who we are, what college football is.

"While North Carolina does have an NIL collective, the group does not involve itself in NIL matters with prospects, only current athletes, Brown says. In the NCAA’s updated NIL guidelines, the organization has made clear that NIL-related inducements to prospects are against the rules.

"“There are five kids this year that asked for money that I think we would have gotten last year that we didn’t,” says Brown, who is paid $5 million a year in salary. “That’s the question: Can we be good enough going by the rules? I think we still can, but it’s harder than it was two years ago.”"
 
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upstater said:
All of them would but some I'm sure prefer the SEC

Name a team that would rather stay in the ACC
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All of them, if they don’t want to be penalized by the GOR.

What about Notre Dame and the ACC? Do you really think they just give up those big tv contracts just to get an invite to the B1G?

The flow of events I do see coming down the pike, will make for a very favorable position for UConn in all sports. Right now, looks like three possible scenarios.
 
My hope is that the ACC is like a herd of elephants trapped in a cardboard stockade that stampede and go..."what ? That's all that was? "
 
Schools like Duke and UVA have a lot of money. It's not clear what they would do if the ACC stays in place. I doubt most of the Ivy League colleges are looking to get into the B10 or SEC.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
All of them, if they don’t want to be penalized by the GOR.

What about Notre Dame and the ACC? Do you really think they just give up those big tv contracts just to get an invite to the B1G?

The flow of events I do see coming down the pike, will make for a very favorable position for UConn in all sports. Right now, looks like three possible scenarios.
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None of them is my answer. They'd all refer the other leagues and what they bring. Maryland already made that decision.

ND is half in the ACC and has already tried to join the B1G, so we know the administrators see the upside. The only ones who don't are the alumni.
 
Kolumbo said:
Fight the good fight upstater. I'm with you.

The ACC was always doomed in terms of CR. It has 4 count 'em 4 programs in a single market - Raleigh-Durham. Two of which are basketball privates. That kills your conference right there. Then it goes and invites a mish-mash of catholics/privates/commuter schools. That's called a double-tap. People argue against adding a 2nd program from states like Ohio and Florida because it's all about adding additional markets yet the ACC is stockpiled in North Carolina. Of course those programs water down the take. It's a complete cluster F and has no basis for building a surviving conference. The GOR is imprisoning FSU and Clemson with Wake, Duke, L-Ville, BCU, Cuse.

The B1G and SEC can manage with Norhwestern and Vandy just fine until those universities decide they don't want to be part of the NFL farm system.
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And those 4 schools are the reason the ACC is in trouble.
Too much power in the hands of North Carolina, the ACC home is there, the basketball tournament is there.
 
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upstater said:
What do you think the TV people are going to do when the B1G grabs whatever ACC schools they want? Punish them? They are over at Fox. The ACC is at ESPN. The B1G grabs those schools and ends up stealing prime real estate from under the SECs nose. You think the SEC hasn't thought of this?

The TV people will do nothing but watch because this is a fight to the death.
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B1G can’t just grab ACC schools. The GOR pretty much prevents that. If the Big 12 had had a GOR in place a few years ago, Texas and Oklahoma never would have left, unless they were basically willing to turn over 1/3 of their endowments.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
B1G can’t just grab ACC schools. The GOR pretty much prevents that. If the Big 12 had had a GOR in place a few years ago, Texas and Oklahoma never would have left, unless they were basically willing to turn over 1/3 of their endowments.
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www.espn.com

Oklahoma, Texas agree to exit Big 12 Conference after 2023-24 season

Oklahoma and Texas will leave the Big 12 for the SEC after the 2023-24 season, a year earlier than previously announced.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

I’m pretty sure they had a GOR w the old B12 deal. That’s why UT & OK were willing to wait it out before both sides realized it made sense to settle a year early. I

It still cost them $50MM each to get out a year early for anyone wanting to try and do the math on the 13 years remaining on the ACC deal
 
baggerbob said:
And those 4 schools are the reason the ACC is in trouble.
Too much power in the hands of North Carolina, the ACC home is there, the basketball tournament is there.
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Tournament rotates between sites.
 
bobbyinaz said:
www.espn.com

Oklahoma, Texas agree to exit Big 12 Conference after 2023-24 season

Oklahoma and Texas will leave the Big 12 for the SEC after the 2023-24 season, a year earlier than previously announced.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

I’m pretty sure they had a GOR w the old B12 deal. That’s why UT & OK were willing to wait it out before both sides realized it made sense to settle a year early. I

It still cost them $50MM each to get out a year early for anyone wanting to try and do the math on the 13 years remaining on the ACC deal
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All GOR’s are not equal, the one that binds ACC schools to the conference is like an anchor from a Nimitz class aircraft carrier while I would compare the Big 12’s version to a bicycle lock. Clemson, Miami and especially FSU would have jumped ship years ago if they could’ve. The only alternative they have is to negotiate with and get Notre Dame to join in join in football too, Let’s not forget the history that Virginia Tech has in football too when Frank Beamer coached them. If Notre Dame is interested, and they might be with certain stipulations, then the ACC immediately has a 6 or 7 team nucleus that they can build on, not to mention a lock on basketball and March Madness. At that point they could to do some poaching themselves, the SEC and B1G have no GOR whatsoever. At that point with continuing improvement in Football and both basketball programs, as well as baseball and ice hockey, UConn becomes very very attractive. The ACC is far far from being picked apart. I would not count out John Swofford just yet.
 
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You won't hear an official peep from an ACC school initiating an exit until after this year's conference payout which is coming up.

And most probably not then.

But...I do think that the real owners (the networks) might have a plan to shift assets over a period to increase the number of games drawing big ratings and to enhance their future CFP playoffs. There seems to be a drive to consolidate into 2, maybe 3, relevant conferences.

Since the NFL model is a money maker...major 20-24 team conferences in an NFL light model with their championship games as part of the CFP to determine byes.

With the advent of college players making money and transferring for a better NIL deal, the haves will swamp the have nots anyway.

It is shaping up to be an ESPN vs Fox property world. SEC vs B1G.

The ACC GOR does have the language that the schools grant their rights to the ACC solely for the purpose of meeting their obligations in the ESPN contract. If, somehow, ESPN can allow the remaining programs to be held held harmless, the contract obligations to ESPN may be met.

Notre Dame will eventually be forced to go to the B1G...ESPN may not want to harm the future draw of FSU, Clemson by letting the progarms lose value over a decade...and there is little chance that ESPN will work to have a current ESPN property go to the Fox side of the business. Unless there is some horse trading to go on.

If the B1G brings in another 4 Pac programs and Notre Dame, the SEC may forced to counter (with ESPN whispering in their ear). And, I believe, the SEC culture is one that doesn't contemplate going way out of their region...Southern tier, southern conference...Texas and Oklahoma were contiguous with SEC states.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
All GOR’s are not equal, the one that binds ACC schools to the conference is like an anchor from a Nimitz class aircraft carrier while I would compare the Big 12’s version to a bicycle lock. Clemson, Miami and especially FSU would have jumped ship years ago if they could’ve. The only alternative they have is to negotiate with and get Notre Dame to join in join in football too, Let’s not forget the history that Virginia Tech has in football too when Frank Beamer coached them. If Notre Dame is interested, and they might be with certain stipulations, then the ACC immediately has a 6 or 7 team nucleus that they can build on, not to mention a lock on basketball and March Madness. At that point they could to do some poaching themselves, the SEC and B1G have no GOR whatsoever. At that point with continuing improvement in Football and both basketball programs, as well as baseball and ice hockey, UConn becomes very very attractive. The ACC is far far from being picked apart. I would not count out John Swofford just yet.
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Swofford?
 
Regarding the value of schools:

When the Big 12 did their dog and pony show in 2016 with UConn, BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF, there was a story written by John Ourand in which he said: "The Big 12’s TV partners are pushing back on the conference’s plans to expand. ESPN and Fox Sports believe that expansion with schools from outside the power five conferences will water down the Big 12 and make it less valuable, not more, sources said. Both networks, according to sources, are digging their heels in against paying those kinds of increases based on expansion with schools outside the power five." It ended up that ESPN and Fox paid the Big12 a nominal amount NOT to expand.

Yet, 5 years later, the BIg12 added Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, and UCF. Suddenly, their value changed from G5 value to Power 5 value.
 
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billybud said:
But...I do think that the real owners (the networks) might have a plan to shift assets over a period to increase the number of games drawing big ratings and to enhance their future CFP playoffs. There seems to be a drive to consolidate into 2, maybe 3, relevant conferences.
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Paying more money for FSU or Clemson rights they already own isn’t something ESPN is going to actively encourage.

Furthermore moving ACC teams to the SEC does nothing to bolster the playoffs. It does a lot to increase the number of 2 & 3 loss teams in the postseason. They’d much prefer an undefeated or 1-loss ACC champion in the playoff than a 2-3 loss 3rd/4th team from the SEC.

Given the playoff is the six highest ranked conference champions don’t you think they’d rather Clemson or FSU as the ACC representative instead of Pitt or UNC?

Furthermore playoff games that are rematches are less likely to be a draw unless they’re semifinal or finals. Forcing more of those rematches in the first round only further diminishes the playoff property.
 
ScottVib said:
Paying more money for FSU or Clemson rights they already own isn’t something ESPN is going to actively encourage.

Furthermore moving ACC teams to the SEC does nothing to bolster the playoffs. It does a lot to increase the number of 2 & 3 loss teams in the postseason. They’d much prefer an undefeated or 1-loss ACC champion in the playoff than a 2-3 loss 3rd/4th team from the SEC.

Given the playoff is the six highest ranked conference champions don’t you think they’d rather Clemson or FSU as the ACC representative instead of Pitt or UNC?

Furthermore playoff games that are rematches are less likely to be a draw unless they’re semifinal or finals. Forcing more of those rematches in the first round only further diminishes the playoff property.
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Pure fantasy that espn is gonna facilitate Clemson and FSU to go to the SEC to pay them double AND keep the rest of the ACC whole in the process.
 
jostar1 said:
Regarding the value of schools:

When the Big 12 did their dog and pony show in 2016 with UConn, BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF, there was a story written by John Ourand in which he said: "The Big 12’s TV partners are pushing back on the conference’s plans to expand. ESPN and Fox Sports believe that expansion with schools from outside the power five conferences will water down the Big 12 and make it less valuable, not more, sources said. Both networks, according to sources, are digging their heels in against paying those kinds of increases based on expansion with schools outside the power five." It ended up that ESPN and Fox paid the Big12 a nominal amount NOT to expand.

Yet, 5 years later, the BIg12 added Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, and UCF. Suddenly, their value changed from G5 value to Power 5 value.
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The top of the AAC was always competitive to all but the elite p5 programs .
I criticized that conference for ignoring basketball but that was far and away the best g5 football conference
Did any MW teams other than possibly SDSU going to a teetering Pac12 get consideration?
 
Nicole Auebach (Big Ten Network, the Athletic)..said that the ACC were the teams most coveted by the Big Ten and SEC...

"A couple of days ago on the Andy Staples Podcast Nicole talked about the ACC schools. She mentions that the ACC schools are what the Big Ten and SEC covet. I provided a link to the most important part of what she said yesterday. Nicole is trustworthy. "

 
billybud said:
Nicole Auebach (Big Ten Network, the Athletic)..said that the ACC were the teams most coveted by the Big Ten and SEC...
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I don't doubt this. What I doubt is the willingness of those schools to pay the settlement it would take to get out of the GOR. A lot of the Clemson/FSU fan hopes/theories/wishful thinking stem from the thought that although the GOR is to the ACC... it's a GOR for the purpose of fulfilling TV obligations and that ESPN would be willing to waive those obligations if those schools were to go to a different tv partner league.

Except what they fail to answer beyond a "well there would be more games with value in the SEC deal" what value it has for ESPN to do that. The first issue, is why ESPN at a time where Disney is cutting budgets would willingly pay nearly double for television rights they already own? The second issue, is without two highly valued teams worth of content how is the ACC able to meet their TV obligations to ESPN? That set of obligations is a two-way street, ESPN agrees to pay a certain amount for a certain amount of content of a certain quality. If there isn't a revenue reason for ESPN to support moving FSU or Clemson to the SEC they certainly aren't going to consider the ACC meeting their obligations without FSU or Clemson.


For this argument to work, ESPN has to be willing to "overpay" (or at least pay more) for Clemson/FSU; while significantly overpaying for the remaining ACC content... it's just not going to happen. Clemson & FSU fans have been working to twist themselves in knots trying to find ways to escape with their local press catering to what they want to read, but for there to be a way to make it work, it would have to work for Clemson/FSU; the SEC & ACC; and in particular, ESPN/Disney. The arguments read much the same way you'd hear the "trade ideas" that would come through on the FAN... "Hey Mike, what do you think about the Yankees getting Ohtani & Trout from the Angels for Frankie Montas & Franchy Cordero." Escaping that GOR is going to have to be a scenario that works for ALL sides.
 
Here's the deal...with ESPN.

They have a bunch of poor performing (TV watching wise) programs in the ACC....BC, Cuse, Wake, GT, et al. Probably not worth a contract increase for the conference even if currently undervalued.

ESPN has two teams in the ACC that currently have more value and bring in twice the revenue than the ACC average. ESPN can let the ACC go into a second tier, including the two top performers. Or ESPN could invest in the two teams.

Why would ESPN move to see that that those ESPN properties don't wither over the next decade ?

Only one reason...money. The bean counters would have to work out the potential increased value to ESPN for Clemson/FSU in the SEC.

Last year's FSU game with LSU:

"The Seminoles and Tigers drew 7.6 million viewers on ABC, making it the network’s third most-viewed Sunday night opener on record. That figure is even more impressive when you consider neither team was ranked at kickoff."

ESPN just agreed to pay $300 million per year to pry the sEC game of the week from CBS. Why? Beancounters.

FSU has H@H's scheduled with LSU, Bama, Georgia, and they have the annual rivalry game with Florida....low level signalling.
 
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