Big East worth substantially less than $155 million per year

[RS9999X]

Why do I think Marinatto's firing, the Boise SDSU MWC talks, and "substantially less than $155 million per year" are all related?

>> Former CBS Sports president Neil Pilson recently told the New York Times he thought the Big East's deal would exceed the $155 million per year deal the league turned down last year. However, industry sources told CBSSports.com that they believe the Big East's new media rights will be worth substantially less than $155 million per year <<

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ight-be-having-second-thoughts-about-big-east

 

[CTMike]

Really hard to say how things will go if you have ESPN, NBC, FOX, and possibly CBS bidding. I think the ACC deal is a reasonable goal, but hopefully we can maintain tier 3 rights.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I've been warning you guys about this all week. Do not trust anythingn you read about the Big East, especially from these competiting news agencies / sports broadcasting media entities. CBSsports has direct interest in the future of the Big EAst, and big east basketball inventory on the east coast is up for sale. Authentic content football broadcasting windows of 3 hours apiece are up for sale in well over a dozen major media markets in this country. There is no other piece of television property out there right now for the next decade like the big east that is up for sale.

I don't have direct knowledge, but everything I can gather, tells me that the big east leadership just did a major toilet flush this week with the resignation of Marinatto, and how it was handled, to flush out all the moles in the news reporteing and broadcasting industry, so that we are clean slate when negotiations start, and news reporting / sports broadcasting groups are not going to happy about it.

There is not one direct quote in this piece, from anyone, that means anything.

 

[Jericho]

I have no idea what the Big East will get. The idea that it will get close to the ACC's $17 million per school per year seems laughable to me. But I'm not "in the know". The problem the Big East has is they don't have any schools that TV networks want. The basketball is strong, but bsketball is not what's getting the big money. And I have a hard time seeing networks pont up billions of dollars for TV rights to games from Houston, SMU, Memphis, Temple, Rutgers, SDSU, Boise St., and UConn. The vast majority of those schools are conference USA school and the old Conference USA contract wasn't paying out eight figures per year per school.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I have no idea what the Big East will get. The idea that it will get close to the ACC's $17 million per school per year seems laughable to me. But I'm not "in the know". The problem the Big East has is they don't have any schools that TV networks want. The basketball is strong, but bsketball is not what's getting the big money. And I have a hard time seeing networks pont up billions of dollars for TV rights to games from Houston, SMU, Memphis, Temple, Rutgers, SDSU, Boise St., and UConn. The vast majority of those schools are conference USA school and the old Conference USA contract wasn't paying out eight figures per year per school.

THe interim big east commissioner, this week, called it "authentic content television". Television networks are scrambling left and right to create it, American Idol, etc.etc.....SImon Cowell is one of the international leaders in this. It's television, where people are compelled to watch live, because they outcome is undetermined, and people will talk about it after. It's the only thing that people watch live anymore, and no one is predicting that will change, as technology continues to rocket forward.

Sport - is the only natural, non-contrived - authentic content television. It's exploding nationwide in value and internationally because of it. Nobody was interested in broadcasting soccer in the U.S., until the invention of DVR. But people will pay to broadcast soccer now, because no matter how big the audience, the broadcasters know that people are watching - LIVE.

So - I'm not buying this thing that the big east football programs don't have value in their markets. THey have a TON Of value to the television industry. Most importantly, every other major sporting league is locked up with television companies for the next decade, and in some cases longer.

The big east is in a very good position. You don't have a guy like Joe Bailey, saying he wishes he was 20 years younger so he could run this thing, if the situation isn't looking very good.

It's going to take leadership though, and a plan, and that transition in leadership, and plan formation is happening as I type. I have no doubt about it.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

The thing the BE has going for it is competition and markets. I think that the sum is more than the parts. I don't think Cincy or USF were really even thought about in their own markets before the BE move. Sure, Cincy hoops had a legacy but had been down and USF was still a baby. Louisville had already been a pretty good draw. A move to the Big East will drastically raise the value of the incoming programs the question is how much. I think programs like SMU and Houston who have some history and are in huge markets have a very high ceiling. UCF has decent fan support now and Memphis has a rabid following for basketball and could get a respectable level of fan interest for football in a better conference with a respectable team. Boise has no issues with fan support or national recognition.

I don't think the contract will be at the level of the ACC's but even it's it's just slightly below it the Tier 3 rights could allow certain schools to pretty much be even with ACC schools. UConn is getting a few mil already from tier 3 sports content, which I believe we would have to give up if we went to the ACC. I think Syracuse will probably be forced to dump SNY once they move.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Good point about Cuse and SNY. haven't thought about that. Disney/Time Warner has an ownership stake in SNY - (only comcast regional network owned by NBCUNiversal, that Time Warner has it's stake in too), so unless the Mets (majority owners of SNY) decide for presonal reasons they don't want to carry Cuse anymore, no reason to think that Cuse won't continue to be on SNY for whatever games ESPN decides to farm out to SNY....

BUt SNY has branded themselves as the home of the Big East.......hmmm....interesting. Wednesday night football for Cuse on SNY?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Big East's TV deal will be fine, if there is a Big East.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Nelson, I think you finally get it. The media market forces out there, that stand to lose big east basketball for the winter months on the east coast, or gain it, and gain the football and basketball games that are available in the media markets around the country with the big east........don't want to pay a lot for this thing.

THey all know that the big east is the last major television sport property in the United States for the next decade - in this period of time, where authentic content is the key.

Some media companies out there are financially leveraged way out right now, and others aren't.

THese media companies are going to do everything they possibly can in coming months to devalue the Big East, and they will pick it at like vultures to try to pull it apart because they know that a fractured big east won't cost them as much, as a whole big east.

I'm doing my best to make people aware. FIght the propoganda.

 

[businesslawyer]

Nelson, I think you finally get it. The media market forces out there, that stand to lose big east basketball for the winter months on the east coast, or gain it, and gain the football and basketball games that are available in the media markets around the country with the big east........don't want to pay a lot for this thing.

THey all know that the big east is the last major television sport property in the United States for the next decade - in this period of time, where authentic content is the key.

Some media companies out there are financially leveraged way out right now, and others aren't.

THese media companies are going to do everything they possibly can in coming months to devalue the Big East, and they will pick it at like vultures to try to pull it apart because they know that a fractured big east won't cost them as much, as a whole big east.

I'm doing my best to make people aware. FIght the propoganda.

A fractured Big East in hoops will cost less but won't be worth as much either. It's the equivalent of smashing a dozen eggs on the floor of the supermarket and then trying to get a discount because they're broken. You may get them cheaper, but it won't be as good a deal as if you had just paid their value initially

 

[Carl Spackler]

A fractured Big East in hoops will cost less but won't be worth as much either. It's the equivalent of smashing a dozen eggs on the floor of the supermarket and then trying to get a discount because they're broken. You may get them cheaper, but it won't be as good a deal as if you had just paid their value initially

I'm trying to understand that analogy......is this a good thing or bad thing you've said? That's a whopper. ;-)

 

[nelsonmuntz]

A fractured Big East in hoops will cost less but won't be worth as much either. It's the equivalent of smashing a dozen eggs on the floor of the supermarket and then trying to get a discount because they're broken. You may get them cheaper, but it won't be as good a deal as if you had just paid their value initially

The Catholic schools, less ND, plus Xavier, Butler, St. Louis and a couple of others will do just fine with TV.

West: Butler, Xavier, Depaul, Marquette, St. Louis, Dayton

East, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, VCU

That league is getting a healthy contract, and will be considered a major conference.

 

[Carl Spackler]

The Catholic schools, less ND, plus Xavier, Butler, St. Louis and a couple of others will do just fine with TV.

West: Butler, Xavier, Depaul, Marquette, St. Louis, Dayton

East, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, VCU

That league is getting a healthy contract, and will be considered a major conference.

A major conference in what? Not when it comes to getting a taste of the money in a college football postseason that includes a playoff. Any basketball conference, that is not attached to division 1-A football, immediately downgrades it's comparable value in negotiation for contracts to comparable levels of other basketball only conferences and lower level football conferences.

Come on man, aren't you supposed to be involved in negotiations?

 

[mattp]

I've been warning you guys about this all week. Do not trust anythingn you read about the Big East, especially from these competiting news agencies / sports broadcasting media entities.g.

i agree with you here. the "insider" could be an ESPN exec saying he thinks the BE is worth a buck fifty so they can lower the price of our contract. negotiation time is full of B-S. there's certainly nothing here to get at all worked up over

 

[Jericho]

THe interim big east commissioner, this week, called it "authentic content television". Television networks are scrambling left and right to create it, American Idol, etc.etc.....SImon Cowell is one of the international leaders in this. It's television, where people are compelled to watch live, because they outcome is undetermined, and people will talk about it after. It's the only thing that people watch live anymore, and no one is predicting that will change, as technology continues to rocket forward.

Sport - is the only natural, non-contrived - authentic content television. It's exploding nationwide in value and internationally because of it. Nobody was interested in broadcasting soccer in the U.S., until the invention of DVR. But people will pay to broadcast soccer now, because no matter how big the audience, the broadcasters know that people are watching - LIVE.

So - I'm not buying this thing that the big east football programs don't have value in their markets. THey have a TON Of value to the television industry. Most importantly, every other major sporting league is locked up with television companies for the next decade, and in some cases longer.

The big east is in a very good position. You don't have a guy like Joe Bailey, saying he wishes he was 20 years younger so he could run this thing, if the situation isn't looking very good.

It's going to take leadership though, and a plan, and that transition in leadership, and plan formation is happening as I type. I have no doubt about it.

I don't really disagree with you, but you're making a bit of a straw man argument here. No one's disputing that live sports sell well. The question becomes, why pay the Big East tons of money? Because those same networks could buy sports content from places like Conference USA at a much cheaper rate.

Some of the same arguments made about the Big East, like big markets, applies to Conference USA as well. Even after losing a few schools to poaching, Con-USA still has schools in Houston, New Orleans, Birmingham, Charlotte, Tulsa, El Paso (a suprisingly big city), San Antonio, and Miami. But I don't think anyone here is arguing that Con-USA is going to get a big money deal.

The question becomes, do you give the Big East $14 million per year if you can get Con-USA for say $5 million. Only if the Big East can nearly triple the viewers. I'm just not sure it can.

Big East basketball is still great. But basketball is an afterthought in these deals. It's dwarfed dramatically by football money wise. So the overwhelming question to any network will be how many people will actually tune if for Temple, Memphis, Rutgers, UConn, UCF, Houston, and USF football (and others schools I did not take the time to list)? That's the question I do not know. And that's why I am curious to see what the final number is. But I cannot say with a straight face that I really think Temple, USF, Rutgers, and Houston will draw fans at the same level of GT, FSU, VT, and Clemson. And that's why I can't see the Big East getting all that close to the ACC dollar wise.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I don't really disagree with you, but you're making a bit of a straw man argument here. No one's disputing that live sports sell well. The question becomes, why pay the Big East tons of money? Because those same networks could buy sports content from places like Conference USA at a much cheaper rate.

Some of the same arguments made about the Big East, like big markets, applies to Conference USA as well. Even after losing a few schools to poaching, Con-USA still has schools in Houston, New Orleans, Birmingham, Charlotte, Tulsa, El Paso (a suprisingly big city), San Antonio, and Miami. But I don't think anyone here is arguing that Con-USA is going to get a big money deal.

The question becomes, do you give the Big East $14 million per year if you can get Con-USA for say $5 million. Only if the Big East can nearly triple the viewers. I'm just not sure it can.

Big East basketball is still great. But basketball is an afterthought in these deals. It's dwarfed dramatically by football money wise. So the overwhelming question to any network will be how many people will actually tune if for Temple, Memphis, Rutgers, UConn, UCF, Houston, and USF football (and others schools I did not take the time to list)? That's the question I do not know. And that's why I am curious to see what the final number is. But I cannot say with a straight face that I really think Temple, USF, Rutgers, and Houston will draw fans at the same level of GT, FSU, VT, and Clemson. And that's why I can't see the Big East getting all that close to the ACC dollar wise.

THe answer to your post is simple. It's why Memphis, TN......Houston, TX......Orlando, FL.........San Diego, CA........Philadelphia, PA.....Dallas, TX.......all have membership in the Big East conference and rural North Carolina, who's been begging to get in for years....does not.

Everything about the value of the big east conference right now is speculation, and with speculation, there are things you can look at to get a good idea about predicting things, and you can play probability and statistics and all, but at the end of the business day....it's still all speculation, but it can have an affect on futures.

We won't know what the reality of big east value is until the deals are done.

I am 100% certain that there are a number of media enterprises out there that are going to use every bit of their media power to drive down the public speculative value of the Big East in coming months, with the goal of making that reality of value of the big east future, less.

 

[Carl Spackler]

and ....don't discount the power of big east basketball on the east coast. THe basketball schools have no motive to leave football, because it simply means cutting the cord to football money - they'd be dumb to do that - there's a reason that big east started playing football and got in the BCS in the first place....it wasn't because the big east b-ball programs play football.

BUT - as I've said all along - a big east conference - hybrid - that has it's priorities in line - can be extremely powerful, because of the northeast corridor.

College basketball is what fills up the weeknight primetime slots from 7pm - 11pm in those all important eastern markets. THe big east, with Connecticut, Louisivllle, Temple...in addition to the Georgetwon, Villanova, Notre Dame, St. John's.......of the world - still own all those weeknights in the winter on the east coast.

Imagine ESPN filling up college basketball gamenights on the east coast, with SEC and Big 12 basketball and Duke, UNC, and Syracuse. That's what ESPN is facing right now.

Basketball ratings for ESPN are going to go through the floor in those markets, if they lose big east basketball in those all important markets, and they're going to use every big of their propoganda machine to fight it.

That's my opinion.

Be ready for the media onslaught over the summer, it won't be pretty. General Norman Schwartzkopf's media addresses from the Big EAst headquarters is what we'll have to rely on. When I listened to Bailey's interview, I got the distinct impression that we had a guy up there that was following the exact same media plan that happened in the first Persion Gulf War - if anyone of you are old enough to have lived it.

 

[Fishy]

This is a news flash in advance of the eventual newsflash....

The new television contract will be about two miles behind the ACC's contract which was one mile behind the Big 12's contract.

Networks are not going to claw each others' eyeballs out for the right to show a Thursday night UCF-Rutgers game - it's just not going to happen. We're not an appealing product in football and networks don't hand out blank checks for basketball content.

 

[observer]

This is a news flash in advance of the eventual newsflash....

The new television contract will be about two miles behind the ACC's contract which was one mile behind the Big 12's contract.

Networks are not going to claw each others' eyeballs out for the right to show a Thursday night UCF-Rutgers game - it's just not going to happen. We're not an appealing product in football and networks don't hand out blank checks for basketball content.

The really attractive games that the NBE can offer in FB are limited and if Boise decides not to join and Ville bolts there will be even fewer.

OK, NBC and a few others want content but they are not going to over pay a lot and take a loss just to get content because that content (NBE FB) will have a hard time drawing significant viewers if it has to go up against the other stronger conferences. Just a WAG but if the NBE gets North of $10 mil per school for its all sports schools they will be lucky.

 

[Hoophound]

Our deal will be ok but I don't expect ACC money. Believe it or not though, our representation will be very important in determining what we get. These guys are sharks and we need one on our side for once.

 

[Fishy]

The really attractive games that the NBE can offer in FB are limited and if Boise decides not to join and Ville bolts there will be even fewer.

OK, NBC and a few others want content but they are not going to over pay a lot and take a loss just to get content because that content (NBE FB) will have a hard time drawing significant viewers if it has to go up against the other stronger conferences. Just a WAG but if the NBE gets North of $10 mil per school for its all sports schools they will be lucky.

The irony is that the football conference lost Syracuse and Pitt and probably got stronger. What's on the field will probably be stronger than half the Big 12 and the buffet of pure dreck the ACC will be serving - best hope for the conference is that they can rebuild the brand and then score in their next deal while the ACC is locked until 2027.

Nelson is right...the ACC deal looks okay today, but long term, it's an anchor. It'll cost them teams.

 

[zls44]

The Big East is the most valuable sports content coming on the US market in the next ten years.

If you ignore MLB (2013), Barclays Premier League (2013), BCS or its replacement (2014), NASCAR (2014), Big Ten (2015), NBA (2016), UEFA Champions League (2015ish).

So, other than those seven, yes. But why bid on the most popular soccer league in the world, setting US TV records weekly, when you can show Houston-Rutgers.

The worst part of TapaTalk is the inability to ignore people who have no idea what they are taking about.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Big East is the most valuable sports content coming on the US market in the next ten years.

If you ignore MLB (2013), Barclays Premier League (2013), BCS or its replacement (2014), NASCAR (2014), Big Ten (2015), NBA (2016), UEFA Champions League (2015ish).

So, other than those seven, yes. But why bid on the most popular soccer league in the world, setting US TV records weekly, when you can show Houston-Rutgers.

The worst part of TapaTalk is the inability to ignore people who have no idea what they are taking about.

Pick a number hotshot.

 

[Carl Spackler]

The Big East is the most valuable sports content coming on the US market in the next ten years.

If you ignore MLB (2013), Barclays Premier League (2013), BCS or its replacement (2014), NASCAR (2014), Big Ten (2015), NBA (2016), UEFA Champions League (2015ish).

So, other than those seven, yes. But why bid on the most popular soccer league in the world, setting US TV records weekly, when you can show Houston-Rutgers.

The worst part of TapaTalk is the inability to ignore people who have no idea what they are taking about.

College sports are different than pro sports. Olympic sports are different than pro sports. Soccer, I agree is growing incredibly in this country - and if you can't recognize what that means.......oh well. Intercollegiate sports are different.

Have a nice weekend. I've done my part for the day. Unless you see a president quoted directly from teh big east, everything out there is speculation. The only reality out there is what you can find directly attributed to a big east president, or the big east commissioner.

We've finally got a chain of command in this conference.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I bet 80% of this board pegs the next TV contract at $10-13MM a year per all sports school if the Big East holds together. Maybe 90%.

I don't know what all the name calling is about.