Big East Regular Season Title Outlook

[Tenspro2002]

We're down to 4 regular season games left. The Big East regular season picture is fairly clear.

UConn 14-2, remaining vs. Nova, vs. SH, @Marquette, @PC
Marquette 10-4, remaining vs. DePaul, vs. Xavier, vs. PC, @Creighton, vs. UConn, @Xavier
Creighton 11-5, remaining @SJ, vs. SH, vs. Marquette, @Nova
Seton Hall 10-5, remaining vs. Butler, @Creighton, @Uconn, vs. Nova, vs. DePaul

Most straightforwardly, if we go 3-1 or better, we win the BE regular season outright.

If we go 2-2, we can be caught by Marquette if they win out. They would also win the tiebreaker by virtue of beating Creighton twice (assuming Creighton remains in the top 4).

If we go 1-3, Marquette would have to go 5-1 to match us and would also almost certainly win the tiebreaker since they would have a better record than us against Creighton, Seton Hall, or Providence. Creighton could also plausibly win out to tie or, less plausibly, Seton Hall (but at most one of them since they play each other).

 

[HailUConn]

My math could be wrong, but beat Marquette is a nail in the coffin.

 

[superjohn]

We're down to 4 regular season games left. The Big East regular season picture is fairly clear.

UConn 14-2, remaining vs. Nova, vs. SH, @Marquette, @PC
Marquette 10-4, remaining vs. DePaul, vs. Xavier, vs. PC, @Creighton, vs. UConn, @Xavier
Creighton 11-5, remaining @SJ, vs. SH, vs. Marquette, @Nova
Seton Hall 10-5, remaining vs. Butler, @Creighton, @Uconn, vs. Nova, vs. DePaul

Most straightforwardly, if we go 3-1 or better, we win the BE regular season outright.

If we go 2-2, we can be caught by Marquette if they win out. They would also win the tiebreaker by virtue of beating Creighton twice (assuming Creighton remains in the top 4).

If we go 1-3, Marquette would have to go 5-1 to match us and would also almost certainly win the tiebreaker since they would have a better record than us against Creighton, Seton Hall, or Providence. Creighton could also plausibly win out to tie or, less plausibly, Seton Hall (but at most one of them since they play each other).

We should go 3-1. Take care of Nova and Hall at home and split the road games. I'm not expecting to win at Marquette.

 

[bendm]

Tiebreaker for seeding in the BET? Wouldn’t we get a share of the regular season title if marq and us both finished 16-4?

 

[Tenspro2002]

Tiebreaker for seeding in the BET? Wouldn’t we get a share of the regular season title if marq and us both finished 16-4?

I don't know how it would be indicated in the official record books about a "shared" title, but the tiebreaker for seeding in the BET is each team's record against the next best finishers, in order.

If Creighton is 3rd, and Marquette is 2-0 against them, while we are 1-1, Marquette gets the #1 seed in the BET.

 

[bendm]

I don't know how it would be indicated in the official record books about a "shared" title, but the tiebreaker for seeding in the BET is each team's record against the next best finishers, in order.

If Creighton is 3rd, and Marquette is 2-0 against them, while we are 1-1, Marquette gets the #1 seed in the BET.

You’re indicated as being regular season champ and so is the other school. The BIG has had a shared a conference champ 3 of the last 5 years including a three way tie.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Marquette at Creighton 3/2

That will be a huge game. And if M can pull a win, our rematch four days later is even juicier. Could be Top 5 AGAIN

 

[bendm]

I don't know how it would be indicated in the official record books about a "shared" title, but the tiebreaker for seeding in the BET is each team's record against the next best finishers, in order.

If Creighton is 3rd, and Marquette is 2-0 against them, while we are 1-1, Marquette gets the #1 seed in the BET.

and there was a 3 way tie for BE regular season champ in 19-20. tiebreaker determines seeding in the BET but they all get to claim a share of the regular season title.

2019–20 Big East Conference men's basketball season - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Dibbie]

Saturday is a big game. Not only an opportunity to get the bad taste out of their mouths, but they then gave a week off to rest up and get ready for the stretch run.

 

[AdamaNation]

You’re indicated as being regular season champ and so is the other school. The BIG has had a shared a conference champ 3 of the last 5 years including a three way tie.

I think this is correct. Tie breakers are for seeding. There can be cochamps on record

 

[auror]

My math could be wrong, but beat Marquette is a nail in the coffin.

We could be tied with Creighton or Seton Hall also in that scenario and then it gets messy.

Edit - Hmm actually in that scenario one of them has to lose to the other to catch us. We'd lose head to head tiebreaker with Seton Hall though, though likely to beat Creighton on tiebreaker with Marquette record.

So beating Marquette and 1 loss by Seton Hall is enough I think.

 

[uconngb]

We are winning the regular season title. Period. We are 14-2. 2 aberrations. Not 14.

 

[6in25]

Saturday is a big game. Not only an opportunity to get the bad taste out of their mouths, but they then gave a week off to rest up and get ready for the stretch run.

Let's F'in Goooooo!!! Gampel better be shaking!

 

[UCTitleTown]

Title probably comes down to beating Providence.

 

[bendm]

I think this is correct. Tie breakers are for seeding. There can be cochamps on record

every conference has done it this way for as long as i can remember

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Title probably comes down to beating Providence.

Creighton needs to beat Marquette in Omaha otherwise it’s going to be close.

Marquette has Xavier twice. I have zero clue how those games go.

 

[willie99]

We hold serve, Marquette would have to sweep the table by going 6-0

We hold serve and beat PC, it's over

 

[businesslawyer]

Tiebreaker for seeding in the BET? Wouldn’t we get a share of the regular season title if marq and us both finished 16-4?

Yes, you would have co-champions. Tiebreakers are only for seeding for the conference tournament.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Yes, you would have co-champions. Tiebreakers are only for seeding for the conference tournament.

Although, given the big gap in quality between #3 and #4, if you care about winning the BET, or at least about making it to Saturday night, then being the #1 seed is a huge benefit over #2.

(Or, for any degenerates who bet on conference champions, they would go by the #1 seed in the conference tournament.)

 

[navery12]

Barring a collapse we'll win the title outright and barring a complete collapse and Marquette running the table we'll at least have a share

 

[BFieldHusky]

2/25 update: Big bounce back win last night after Tuesday night. No matter what Marquette does, a win at home next Sunday against Seton Hall (I hear Digger Phelps saying his famous phrase of a "payback game" plus it's Senior Day) and at worst we clinch a share of the BE regular season title.

Marquette will actually play 3x before we play another game. 3 games in 6 days. Home today against Xavier. Home Wednesday against Providence. And then next Saturday afternoon @ Creighton.

I expect them to beat Xavier, and while I think Providence will give them a game, I think they will win that won. The one to watch is @ Creighton. A loss @ Creighton on Saturday, and we can clinch the outright BE title next Sunday at Gampel. It also would help with potential tiebreakers if we end up sharing the regular season title. Just FYI, but Marquette's last two games after Creighton are us at home, and @ Xavier.

Also, if the season ended today the BE tournament would look like this:

1. UConn
2. Marquette
3. Creighton
4. Seton Hall
5. Providence
6. Villanova
7. Xavier
8. St. John's
9. Butler
10. Georgetown
11. DePaul

Creighton and Seton Hall have the same conference record, but Creighton currently owns the tiebreaker, and they play this week in Ohama. 5-8 is still very fluid, as there is only a 2 game difference in the standings. Besides winning the BE regular season title, being the number 1 seed most likely keeps us away from both Marquette or Creighton until the final if we make it that far. I'll point out that both teams don't play a lot of guys, so a 3rd game in 3 days could be a factor there.

I personally would like to avoid playing St. John's. My dream 8/9 game would be Xavier/Butler.

 

[bendm]

Seton Hall jumps Creighton into third after their loss to SJU. For now at least.

 

[auror]

9 games left that matter for BET solo title/1 seed (even for tiebreakers I believe). Only UConn, Marquette, or Seton Hall can be the 1 now. 512 possible game result permutations.

Wed Feb 28
-Creighton/Seton Hall
-Marquette/Providence
Sat Mar 2
-Creighton/Marquette
Sun Mar 3
-UConn/Seton Hall
Wed Mar 6
-Marquette/UConn
-Seton Hall/Villanova
Sat Mar 9
-Seton Hall/DePaul
-Xavier/Marquette
-Providence/UConn

• 1 win by UConn or 1 loss by them eliminates Seton Hall (can do both next weekend if need be).
• 2 wins by UConn or 1 win by UConn and 1 loss by them (can do both next Wed) or 2 losses by them eliminates Marquette.
• 2 games still to be played in the group of teams, but neither Hall or Marq can survive losing to UConn, so for the purposes of tiebreak by necessity we would either be 1-1 with Marquette or 0-2 with Seton Hall (and they are 1-1 with each other). We would lose tiebreak with Hall head to head and tiebreak with Marq we would lose eventually to record against Hall or Creighton in every scenario I could generate.
  • Seton Hall would win a 3-way tiebreak between the teams at 15-5 by way of 3-1 record in group (Marq #2, UConn #3).

So post-Villanova win, if we beat Marquette we clinch sole 1st no matter what. If we end up tied with anybody, we lose the tiebreaker. This all boils down to we need either the Marquette win, or some combo of 2 wins+Marquette losses (and if it's 2 Marq losses and we lose 3 we need a Hall loss as well).

The earliest we can clinch BET 1 seed is Sat the 2nd if Seton Hall and Creighton lose all 3 of their games on 28th/2nd.

 

[caw]

9 games left that matter for BET solo title/1 seed (even for tiebreakers I believe). Only UConn, Marquette, or Seton Hall can be the 1 now. 512 possible game result permutations.

Wed Feb 28
-Creighton/Seton Hall
-Marquette/Providence
Sat Mar 2
-Creighton/Marquette
Sun Mar 3
-UConn/Seton Hall
Wed Mar 6
-Marquette/UConn
-Seton Hall/Villanova
Sat Mar 9
-Seton Hall/DePaul
-Xavier/Marquette
-Providence/UConn

• 1 win by UConn or 1 loss by them eliminates Seton Hall (can do both next weekend if need be).
• 2 wins by UConn or 1 win by UConn and 1 loss by them (can do both next Wed) or 2 losses by them eliminates Marquette.
• 2 games still to be played in the group of teams, but neither Hall or Marq can survive losing to UConn, so for the purposes of tiebreak by necessity we would either be 1-1 with Marquette or 0-2 with Seton Hall (and they are 1-1 with each other). We would lose tiebreak with Hall head to head and tiebreak with Marq we would lose eventually to record against Hall or Creighton in every scenario I could generate.
  • Seton Hall would win a 3-way tiebreak between the teams at 15-5 by way of 3-1 record in group (Marq #2, UConn #3).

So post-Villanova win, if we beat Marquette we clinch sole 1st no matter what. If we end up tied with anybody, we lose the tiebreaker. This all boils down to we need either the Marquette win, or some combo of 2 wins+Marquette losses (and if it's 2 Marq losses and we lose 3 we need a Hall loss as well).

The earliest we can clinch BET 1 seed is Sat the 2nd if Seton Hall and Creighton lose all 3 of their games on 28th/2nd.

Man that is a tight turnaround for both MU and Creighton before their game. Both get teams that are on the bubble and fighting to get into the tournament. Add that both PC and SHU will beat you up to win. Then they have to turnaround and play each other. Creighton has to be the favorite with all that in their building.

 

[Kolumbo]

Although, given the big gap in quality between #3 and #4, if you care about winning the BET, or at least about making it to Saturday night, then being the #1 seed is a huge benefit over #2.

(Or, for any degenerates who bet on conference champions, they would go by the #1 seed in the conference tournament.)

Right now the 2-3 game is Marquette vs SHU. A few key games left but I don't think the gap is that big.

This was posted in another thread

mred's Big East MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big East Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers

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