Big East Proved NCAA Selection Committee “Wrong Again” | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Big East Proved NCAA Selection Committee “Wrong Again”

auror said:
Well, you're wrong by every known metric.

SDSU isn't top 25 only by the committee. Also AP Poll (people) and basically every computer metric (KenPom, Torvik, EvanMiya, etc,).

Beating SDSU on road in WAB based on Torvik ranks would be worth +0.73 wins above bubble and Marquette at home +0.57.

Beating us at home is +0.79, so there are some home wins worth more than a road SDSU win, but by and large a top 25 road win is the hardest thing to win in college basketball.

There's a reason all three of our losses were on the road. And all four of Purdue's and Houston's losses were away from home.

So either you're undervaluing Sweet Sixteen SDSU who was in the national championship game last year or winning on the road. Neither is correct.
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Torvik has St. John's at 18, Kenpom 25, NET 32
 
Let's compare blind resumes as of Selection Sunday:

TEAM A:

NET Ranking: 26
KenPom Rank: 42
Q1 Record: 6-5 (4-4 Q1A and 2-1 Q1B)
Q1 + Q2 Record: 9-9
Q3 + Q4 Record: 11-1
Best Three Wins: (1) Neutral to NET 16; (2) Away to NET 20; (3) Away to NET 22
Worst Loss: Home to NET 76

Team B:

NET Ranking: 67
KenPom Rank: 60
Q1 Record: 5-8 (3-5 Q1A and 2-3 Q1B)
Q1 + Q2 Record: 9-11
Q3 + Q4 Record: 13-1
Best Three Wins: (1) Home to NET 2; (2) Home to NET 14; (3) Away to NET 32
Worst Loss: Home to NET 103

There isn't a huge amount of difference between these two, but all of these metrics do lean towards Team A over Team B. Over the whole season, Team A seems to be slightly better than Team B, and if I were on the committee that's who I would pick if it came down to these two teams.

If you're going to pick Team B, what would your rationale be? It would have to be that Team B has the best single win of the two. But they also have the worst loss, and overall Team A has better NET, KenPom, Q1 record and Q1 + Q2 record than Team B.
 
Karmacop said:
Let's compare blind resumes as of Selection Sunday:

TEAM A:

NET Ranking: 26
KenPom Rank: 42
Q1 Record: 6-5 (4-4 Q1A and 2-1 Q1B)
Q1 + Q2 Record: 9-9
Q3 + Q4 Record: 11-1
Best Three Wins: (1) Neutral to NET 16; (2) Away to NET 20; (3) Away to NET 22
Worst Loss: Home to NET 76

Team B:

NET Ranking: 67
KenPom Rank: 60
Q1 Record: 5-8 (3-5 Q1A and 2-3 Q1B)
Q1 + Q2 Record: 9-11
Q3 + Q4 Record: 13-1
Best Three Wins: (1) Home to NET 2; (2) Home to NET 14; (3) Away to NET 32
Worst Loss: Home to NET 103

There isn't a huge amount of difference between these two, but all of these metrics do lean towards Team A over Team B. Over the whole season, Team A seems to be slightly better than Team B, and if I were on the committee that's who I would pick if it came down to these two teams.

If you're going to pick Team B, what would your rationale be? It would have to be that Team B has the best single win of the two. But they also have the worst loss, and overall Team A has better NET, KenPom, Q1 record and Q1 + Q2 record than Team B.
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That’s well done, but to be definitive you have to do what the committee does, which is look not just at the composite Quad 1 and 2 numbers, but note how high or low in the Quads the actual games were.
 
Here's a third team to compare:

TEAM C:

NET Ranking: 54
KenPom Rank: 70
Q1 Record: 2-7 (1-3 Q1A and 1-4 Q1B)
Q1 + Q2 Record: 10-10
Q3 + Q4 Record: 13-0
Best Three Wins: (1) Away to NET 35; (2) Neutral to NET 29; (3) Home to NET 43
Worst Loss: Away to NET 124

Here, Team B has a better argument. Team C has a slightly better Q1 + Q2 record and NET ranking, but that's it. Team C's record against Q1 teams is abysmal, and that's who you're going to play in the tourney as an at-large selection on a neutral court. The worst losses are comparable, but Team B has much better "best wins" than Team C.
 
businesslawyer said:
That’s well done, but to be definitive you have to do what the committee does, which is look not just at the composite Quad 1 and 2 numbers, but note how high or low in the Quads the actual games were.
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Agreed, although there is enough difference between Team A and Team B that I'm not sure that would have made a difference here. And the "best three wins" is a rough shorthand for how good the best Q1 wins were (along with Q1A and Q1B breakdowns).

Now, Team B vs. Team C, yeah that's closer.

I'm sure folks can figure it out, but:

Team A = Boise State
Team B = Seton Hall
Team C = Virginia
 
Karmacop said:
Agreed, although there is enough difference between Team A and Team B that I'm not sure that would have made a difference here. And the "best three wins" is a rough shorthand for how good the best Q1 wins were (along with Q1A and Q1B breakdowns).

Now, Team B vs. Team C, yeah that's closer.

I'm sure folks can figure it out, but:

Team A = Boise State
Team B = Seton Hall
Team C = Virginia
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agree.
 
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upstater said:
Marquette is a 2 seed, SD is a 5. SD wasn't even in the top 25 when they seeded. And you leave out beating UConn. Home or away that's a big deal.

Again, this is a new emphasis on the OOC that didn't exist t all last year.

If you know your criteria are all screwed up (and they are or else Mich St or Virginia don't get in over Indiana St) then the proper thing to do is insure some balance between conferences.

6 MWC and 3 BE is a colossal failure
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BE vs. MWC misses the point -- the Big XII and SEC were severely overrated. Virginia was also a joke.
 
August_West said:
Seton Hall shot themselves in the foot in the OOC. No doubt about it. Its why they were even considered for the bubble. But this snub really sticks in my craw because it is pure disrespect for the BigEast as a conference rather than being a garden variety bubble team in bubble team out snub. St. Johns and Providence fit that latter category. I'm fine with them in, I'm fine with them out.

Im not a conspiracy guy, but that one has me frothing. I don't like what it portends for the league as a whole.
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The "no 13-7 major conference team was left out" comment should be a 6-alarm fire for the conference and its national perception.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
BE vs. MWC misses the point -- the Big XII and SEC were severely overrated. Virginia was also a joke.
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Here's the problem I have with this (and I agree about Virginia and Michigan St): these are just tougher conferences than the MW. The MWC has to prove itself in the tournament eventually. It's a weak conference that is getting too much deference. With the SEC and B12, they've at least had good years recently.
 
auror said:
Well, you're wrong by every known metric.

SDSU isn't top 25 only by the committee. Also AP Poll (people) and basically every computer metric (KenPom, Torvik, EvanMiya, etc,).

Beating SDSU on road in WAB based on Torvik ranks would be worth +0.73 wins above bubble and Marquette at home +0.57.

Beating us at home is +0.79, so there are some home wins worth more than a road SDSU win, but by and large a top 25 road win is the hardest thing to win in college basketball.

There's a reason all three of our losses were on the road. And all four of Purdue's and Houston's losses were away from home.

So either you're undervaluing Sweet Sixteen SDSU who was in the national championship game last year or winning on the road. Neither is correct.
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They were not top 25 when the committee seeded them. They were out of the 25.

The committee was using these metrics which clearly favored the MWC but you have to see beyond the metrics to realize that conference is weak. They've never really been strong or had good showings in the tournament.

I happen to think a win over UConn is much harder than a road win over San Diego St. It surprises me you dont believe this, no matter what Torvik has to say about it. UConn had a record setting BE W/L this year. Clearly, it was a tall task beating them even at home.
 
navery12 said:
You're just posting a bunch of nonsense. I think your criteria is garbage as is the committee's. Right now your criteria appears to be ignore all of the Big East teams' warts because go Big East.

You're just choosing what numbers matter and what numbers don't, and it changes from post to post depending on what argument you've changed to at that second. And what you posted as I type this is a perfect example. San Diego State is a top 25 team in every metric, was ranked multiple times throughout the season, including at the end. Yet upstater says they're actually not a top team so I should believe that.

But since you want answers, here you go

Beating a top 10 team at home is more impressive than beating a non-ranked team on the road.

This is irrelevant, San Diego State is not an unranked team

The entire in conference schedule for Seton Hall was tougher.

Completely irrelevant since we're talking about OOC losses

The MWC is a weak conference overall.

It is worse than the Big East, sure. But this is really just showing your ignorance about college basketball outside of the Big East
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WRONG: They were not ranked when the committee seeded them.

That's what I wrote.

Just because you can't read, that's not my fault.

MWC has never accomplished anything or shown any strength in the tournament, yet it is shown deference based on completely bogus metrics.

To top it off, the committee didn't even care about OOC last year when it dropped UConn from a 2 to a 4.
 
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Saying more Big East teams should of gotten in is a perfectly rational argument. However, it is in no way an objective fact concluding that anyone was deliberately “screwed”. If you spend the entire season somewhere between Last 4 byes and First 4 out, don’t be surprised when you don’t make it. Those MWC teams were all projected to be higher than 10 seeds anyway..
 
upstater said:
They were not top 25 when the committee seeded them. They were out of the 25.

The committee was using these metrics which clearly favored the MWC but you have to see beyond the metrics to realize that conference is weak. They've never really been strong or had good showings in the tournament.

I happen to think a win over UConn is much harder than a road win over San Diego St. It surprises me you dont believe this, no matter what Torvik has to say about it. UConn had a record setting BE W/L this year. Clearly, it was a tall task beating them even at home.
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Lol. Great gotcha! They were 28th (3rd receiving votes), had been ranked the week before, and were about to be ranked the next day. They had just made their conference title game beating the top seed #18 along the way. The point is not actually the ranking, the point is how people felt about the team at the time. People thought they were top 25 good (many of their metrics were top 20 on top of being ranked a lot this season), so sweeping them (and winning there on the road) was seen as very good for Boise St.

The metrics do not all "clearly favor the MWC." 1 of the 2 predictive metrics on the committee's teamsheet, BPI, is mechanically biased against the MWC (there is a controversial elevation adjustment which hits many of the MWC home wins hard). SOR, 1 of the 2 resume metrics on the teamsheet, uses BPI as the base of it's calculations (like WAB uses T-Rank). This is one of the biggest reasons why the MWC was almost universally seeded lower than the consensus/BracketMatrix. I'm not sure what you mean the conference has never had good showings in the tournament. San Diego St literally made the title game last season.

San Diego St. is 70-6 at home the last 5 years. 92% winning %. They won 14/15 at home this year. They're 24-3 at home the last 3 years in conference play (88%). Generously counting the semi-neutral Gonzaga and St. John's in the BET wins, UConn went 9-3 on the road this year (75% and much worse last year). Winning on the road is really hard. Yeah it's probably pretty comparable to beat this year's UConn team at your place vs. SDSU at their place.
 
auror said:
Lol. Great gotcha! They were 28th (3rd receiving votes), had been ranked the week before, and were about to be ranked the next day. They had just made their conference title game beating the top seed #18 along the way. The point is not actually the ranking, the point is how people felt about the team at the time. People thought they were top 25 good (many of their metrics were top 20 on top of being ranked a lot this season), so sweeping them (and winning there on the road) was seen as very good for Boise St.

The metrics do not all "clearly favor the MWC." 1 of the 2 predictive metrics on the committee's teamsheet, BPI, is mechanically biased against the MWC (there is a controversial elevation adjustment which hits many of the MWC home wins hard). SOR, 1 of the 2 resume metrics on the teamsheet, uses BPI as the base of it's calculations (like WAB uses T-Rank). This is one of the biggest reasons why the MWC was almost universally seeded lower than the consensus/BracketMatrix. I'm not sure what you mean the conference has never had good showings in the tournament. San Diego St literally made the title game last season.

San Diego St. is 70-6 at home the last 5 years. 92% winning %. They won 14/15 at home this year. They're 24-3 at home the last 3 years in conference play (88%). Generously counting the semi-neutral Gonzaga and St. John's in the BET wins, UConn went 9-3 on the road this year (75% and much worse last year). Winning on the road is really hard. Yeah it's probably pretty comparable to beat this year's UConn team at your place vs. SDSU at their place.
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The MWC conference has not proven itself in the tourney.

The committee acted as though they are anything other than a really good mid-major.

Remember the years when the AAC got 2 or 3? That was when it had Houston, UConn, Memphis, Temple, SMU.

I'm not buying this idea that beating SD St on the road is as good a win as beating UConn but regardless, the league road for Seton Hall was much harder. They walloped UNLV tonight. And again the MWC showed weakness in the tourney
 
Wwe Raw GIF
 
kobe said:
Wwe Raw GIF
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At least they can take solace in the fact that they played three basketball games at Madison Square Garden in March. So who’s the real winners here??
 
Drew said:
At least they can take solace in the fact that they played three basketball games at Madison Square Garden in March. So who’s the real winners here??
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buying overpriced beers for 3 days in nyc is the highlight of their season, every season for the church leaguers.

The Office Lol GIF by NETFLIX
 
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kobe said:
buying overpriced beers for 3 days in nyc is the highlight of their season, every season for the church leaguers.

The Office Lol GIF by NETFLIX
Expand ...
Again, you do know that guy in your profile is no longer your coach, right? Quit hanging onto the past. You will never be back. Accept mediocrity.
 
The big east did not get screwed at all.
Marquette and Creighton barely snuck by much lower ranked teams.
And now there are the results tonight.
They were both seeded too high.
 
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So let’s see. Following NEWBIE fanboy logic, the ACC has 2 teams in the Elite 8. Both beat higher seeds to get there. NEWBIE has UConn, but the other 2 flamed out in their usual spot. That would seem to justify the Committee selecting Virginia over St Johns. Because we all know performance of other teams in your league prove your team is deserving.

As far as Marquette-NC State goes, though, I don’t think you guys are giving State enough credit. They played tenacious defense, rebounded well and made several critical shots late in the shot clock when Marquette was making runs. Marquette didn’t play their A game but NC State had a hand in that.
 
freescooter said:
So let’s see. Following NEWBIE fanboy logic, the ACC has 2 teams in the Elite 8. Both beat higher seeds to get there. NEWBIE has UConn, but the other 2 flamed out in their usual spot. That would seem to justify the Committee selecting Virginia over St Johns. Because we all know performance of other teams in your league prove your team is deserving.

As far as Marquette-NC State goes, though, I don’t think you guys are giving State enough credit. They played tenacious defense, rebounded well and made several critical shots late in the shot clock when Marquette was making runs. Marquette didn’t play their A game but NC State had a hand in that.
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They were 12 rebounds down for a big part of the game, 1 and done. It finished 7 but the damage was done.
 
freescooter said:
So let’s see. Following NEWBIE fanboy logic, the ACC has 2 teams in the Elite 8. Both beat higher seeds to get there. NEWBIE has UConn, but the other 2 flamed out in their usual spot. That would seem to justify the Committee selecting Virginia over St Johns. Because we all know performance of other teams in your league prove your team is deserving.

As far as Marquette-NC State goes, though, I don’t think you guys are giving State enough credit. They played tenacious defense, rebounded well and made several critical shots late in the shot clock when Marquette was making runs. Marquette didn’t play their A game but NC State had a hand in that.
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Correction 3 ACC teams. Even more proof.
 
So now the doubters can say that UConn has not only beaten no one in the post-season, but they beat no one in the regular season, either. Turns out the best of their BE opponents and the best of their non-con opponents were all Sweet-16 caliber at best.

All good -- it gives motivation to a team that doesn't really need it but can't help but be lulled a bit by the endless, suffocating praise it's been receiving.

So now, for the next few hours, Illinois becomes everyone's "upset of choice." The consensus view that UConn is by far the nation's best team and can only be beaten by some one-game fluke will be seriously questioned. Some may suggest, as Jay Williams came close to doing last night, that Illinois is the better team.

We'll beat Illinois, no doubt, and handle Alabama/Clemson in the semis, but then it will be noted that ours was the soft side of the Final Four, and we'll enter the championship game under the seriously arched eyebrows of the doubting Davises and Goodmans and Gottliebs.

All good. It makes things so much more fun

So glad that UConn now has something to prove, not only for itself but for the BE. My God, can the BE even survive a UConn loss tonight? Although if UConn now goes on to the title, it will argue less for the strength of the BE than for the transcendence of UConn.

Speaking for myself, I'm pleased that there is no chance of a third UConn/Creighton or fourth UConn/Marquette match-up. There are so many more interesting match-ups possible. UConn/Purdue, of course. UConn/Duke, of course. But consider UConn/NC State. If NC State reaches the final they will be riding a 10-game win streak that began with 5 wins in 5 days in their conference tournament. They will be emulating the feat of Kemba's 2011 Huskies, a feat we thought would never be duplicated. And who might be standing in their way? UConn! You can't make this up.

So bring it on. It's getting interesting.
 
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