Big East Prediction thread heading into conference play

[AntG168]

I take every BE opponent seriously. Especially teams like PC that always seem to play well against UConn. We'll see tomorrow if the board is overrating them.

We should take them serious, they’re tough.

 

[auror]

This board is overrating this PC team by a lot

They've gained 38 KenPom spots in the last month during this 7 game win streak. That's very impressive. Winning alone doesn't move you up, you have to be winning by good margins. They beat the 3rd best team in the Big East and then won 3 road Big East games by 39 points.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

This board is overrating this PC team by a lot

We often overrate ourselves by a lot. So maybe it evens out.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

They've gained 38 KenPom spots in the last month during this 7 game win streak. That's very impressive. Winning alone doesn't move you up, you have to be winning by good margins. They beat the 3rd best team in the Big East and then won 3 road Big East games by 39 points.

KenPom has Kentucky at 14.

 

[AntG168]

They've gained 38 KenPom spots in the last month during this 7 game win streak. That's very impressive. Winning alone doesn't move you up, you have to be winning by good margins. They beat the 3rd best team in the Big East and then won 3 road Big East games by 39 points.

They don’t have one truly impressive win. Not one. Outside of Marquette who was at home, the last good team they played beat them easily(TCU). No they aren’t a pushover. But they aren’t some great team either. We’d be their best win BY FAR. Outside of Marquette their next best win is probably a bad SH team.

At this point in time they don’t have a tournament resume.

PC has played 6 teams with an above .500 record this season. They are 3- 3…2 of those 3 wins are against 8-6 Butler and 7-5 SH. In their “7 game win streak” 4 of those wins came against teams under .500. NOT IMPRESSIVE. Ok I’m done.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

They don’t have one truly impressive win. Not one.

KenPom is useless until the middle to end of January. Until then, too much of the rating is based on KenPom's personal opinion of which teams are good at the beginning of the season.

 

[Hungryhusky99]

They don’t have one truly impressive win. Not one. Outside of Marquette who was at home, the last good team they played beat them easily(TCU). No they aren’t a pushover. But they aren’t some great team either. We’d be their best win BY FAR. Outside of Marquette their next best win is probably a bad SH team.

We are a top 5 team... we would be nearly every team's best win. By your criteria Xavier didn't have any good wins either and they did alright against us.

 

[auror]

KenPom is useless until the middle to end of January. Until then, too much of the rating is based on KenPom's personal opinion of which teams are good at the beginning of the season.

His personal opinion is not a thing. If you want to say the data he chooses to emphasize, okay, but that is all empirically derived. There's no subjective ranking component to it. The model actually performs better with more preseason bias for longer, but he takes out anyways so that people like you stop complaining about it.

If it's so useless then why does Vegas basically set the line based on it in the early season?

KenPom has Kentucky at 14.

You had Providence at 9th.

 

[AntG168]

We are a top 5 team... we would be nearly every team's best win. By your criteria Xavier didn't have any good wins either and they did alright against us.

Key word I used is “by far” no other win is even in the same stratosphere. Xavier’s schedule compared to PCs is laughable. Xavier was much more battle tested and had much more impressive showings against actual tournament teams. They have wins over Cincy, WV, and Florida, with close losses to Gonzaga and Duke before conference play even began. That’s a terrible comparison

 

[auror]

They don’t have one truly impressive win. Not one. Outside of Marquette who was at home, the last good team they played beat them easily(TCU). No they aren’t a pushover. But they aren’t some great team either. We’d be their best win BY FAR. Outside of Marquette their next best win is probably a bad SH team.

At this point in time they don’t have a tournament resume.

PC has played 6 teams with an above .500 record this season. They are 3- 3…2 of those 3 wins are against 8-6 Butler and 7-5 SH. In their “7 game win streak” 4 of those wins came against teams under .500. NOT IMPRESSIVE. Ok I’m done.

We will be literally every team's best win BY FAR. Our metrics are insanely higher than almost everyone else (outside Houston).

Marquette at home is still a Quad 1 win. Butler on the road is a Q1 win (by 20 points). Seton Hall on the road is borderline Q1/Q2.

A team rising this quickly in the ranks often means their true quality is still yet higher. Their early season play was not indicative of their current quality.

Their last 7 games have all had a game score above 85. Yes a few of those games were against cupcakes, but they beat even the cupcakes by more than expected. Look at the slope:

By Torvik, they're the 9th best team in the country over the last month.

 

[AntG168]

We will be literally every team's best win BY FAR. Our metrics are insanely higher than almost everyone else (outside Houston).

Marquette at home is still a Quad 1 win. Butler on the road is a Q1 win (by 20 points). Seton Hall on the road is borderline Q1/Q2.

A team rising this quickly in the ranks often means their true quality is still yet higher. Their early season play was not indicative of their current quality.

Their last 7 games have all had a game score above 85. Yes a few of those games were against cupcakes, but they beat even the cupcakes by more than expected. Look at the slope:

By Torvik, they're the 9th best team in the country over the last month.

We’ll see. And that last sentence is why I don’t take any of that stuff seriously. They clearly haven’t been a top 9 team playing the teams they’ve played. Over 50% of their schedule has been against teams below .500

And let’s not forget it took the 2 overtimes to get their best win at home against a team not even in the top 25 at the moment. They haven’t proven anything for us to be sitting here acting like this wouldn’t be a bad loss. Because that’s exactly what it’d be

 

[CardiacAndre7]

We’ll see. And that last sentence is why I don’t take any of that stuff seriously. They clearly haven’t been a top 9 team playing the teams they’ve played. Over 50% of their schedule has been against teams below .500

And let’s not forget it took the 2 overtimes to get their best win at home against a team not even in the top 25 at the moment. They haven’t proven anything for us to be sitting here acting like this wouldn’t be a bad loss. Because that’s exactly what it’d be

Quad 1 losses are not bad losses. Like, by definition. It would be a disappointing loss sure.

 

[AntG168]

Quad 1 losses are not bad losses. Like, by definition. It would be a disappointing loss sure.

Word play. Obviously it wouldn’t hurt or “resume”. But it would absolutely hurt the perception of the team.

 

[auror]

We’ll see. And that last sentence is why I don’t take any of that stuff seriously. They clearly haven’t been a top 9 team playing the teams they’ve played.

I'm not saying we won't win. The start of this was you saying the board had an inflated opinion of Providence. I'm saying their 4-0 Big East start is backed up by their play. They're not squeaking by bad teams. They've been hammering bad teams and beating the decent teams. Overtime counts.

Their tournament resume will be improving over time, I suspect.

 

[AntG168]

I'm not saying we won't win. The start of this was you saying the board had an inflated opinion of Providence. I'm saying their 4-0 Big East start is backed up by their play. They're not squeaking by bad teams. They've been hammering bad teams and beating the decent teams. Overtime counts.

Their tournament resume will be improving over time, I suspect.

Possibly. But it’s also possible that their trend of losing to almost every good team they’ve played will continue as well

 

[auror]

Carter is a former top 100 recruit. He's a dog and a strong driver. His shooting numbers will probably regress a bit, as he's been hot to start conference play, but overall he's entered "good" territory.