Big East OOC thread - Dec 24/25

[REB1094]

Novas resume metrics are awful (Big East Non-Conference Check-In), but as a team they are trending up.

PC might be able to get Hopkins injury credit if he actually plays and they do well in conference season (both are question marks right now).

Xavier, Butler, and Georgetown have work to do, but if any of them go 12-8+ in the Big East, they'd likely get in.

12 BE wins puts Nova at 19-12, PC at 18-13, X at 20-15, and GTown at 20-14

That is firmly at the “on the bubble and you need to get lucky” level. They definitely need to hit the + part of 12-8+ for an at large

 

[RuffRuff]

12 BE wins puts Nova at 19-12, PC at 18-13, X at 20-15, and GTown at 20-14

That is firmly at the “on the bubble and you need to get lucky” level. They definitely need to hit the + part of 12-8+ for an at large

Numbers alone wouldn’t be as important as who and where they win. 8 wins against 81+ KPI teams is not going to raise a lot of eyebrows. The bottom of the league isn’t good and lots of wins to be had there. Those get lucky teams would need a couple wins against the top 3 if they were to have any chance at all.

 

[MU in MKE]

The Dayton losses are fine, they're a mid-major having a banner year. That happens and it's a good thing for the sport, even if not good for MU or UConn (or heck, even Iowa state that could only beat them by 4 or NC who only beat them by 2).

However, despite our down year, only Butler and Seton Hall have a Q4 loss on their resume and last I checked, the rest of the league have 0 or 1 Q3 loss. (edit: Looks like Nova has 2 Q3 losses, but one is sooooo close to Q2).

So depending on on how conference play goes, the tournament is still almost anyone's game if they find a way to pull it together. Now, that would be at the expense of the rest of the BE, but if there's enough separation and not overlapping wins/losses between different teams, the conference can still get more than 4 teams in. 2 is not happening, 3 is highly unlikely. 4 or even 5 is most probable in this down year.

In other words, it's a long season, the sky is not falling. If you truly think only 2 teams will make it, or that 3 is likely (
even though last year showed it can happen), you don't know ball. There's too many W's to pass out in conference play.

 

[auror]

Seton Hall was 13-7 last year and I’d argue the conference had a much better overall profile.

This is a 3.5 bid conference - OOC season is basically over. 12-8 is definitely not getting you in this year. You can win 6 games just by sweeping Hall, Gtown and DePaul.

The overall profile of the league matters, but 4 of Seton Hall wins last year were #173 and #287. When you're counting wins, the only wins that count are relevant wins. Last place team in the Big East this season Seton Hall is #130 right now. That makes a road win at Seton Hall still a Quad 2 win. That's a relevant win. Last year there were 4 irrelevant wins vs. 1 or so this year. That's a big difference between 9 relevant out of 13 vs. 11 relevant out of 12 this season in a hypothetical scenario where a bubble team gets to 12 wins.

Now if Seton Hall drops closer to 150, that will make it slightly tougher for the bubble teams overall (and if DePaul slips out of top 130 or something, too).

Nova or PC having any shot of getting a bid rely on them having a miraculous BE season or winning the BE tourney. Both massive long shots. This is not a realistic current take. I sent out the computer generated odds via a tweet. Take a relook, that’s realistic.

The part you skipped over in my post was about PC getting injury credit. The computer generated odds would not take that into account.

 

[RuffRuff]

Wild stat line in the Marquette Butler game. Marquette took 75 shots to Butlers 47 yet Marquette only won by 10 in what was a relatively close game for much of it. Due to 18 offensive rebounds for Marquette as well as 14 forced turnovers. Butler can make shots as they have some scorers but it’s YMCA looking ball, and they do very little else all that well. They play very small, another game Tarris should be able to feast.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Seton Hall was 13-7 last year including a win over UConn and I’d argue the conference had a much better overall profile. StJ 11-9.

Let me know if you’d like to preorder those tinted contacts.

I have you down for the AAC > Big East this year.

 

[RuffRuff]

I have you down for the AAC > Big East this year.

Lol - definitely not. The AAC is Memphis and a bunch of wet terds. I never want to have to think about the AAC again and am forever grateful to the BE for taking us out of that swamp.

The Atlantic 10 on the other hand may be a three bid league. 3-0 against PC, Dayton 2-0 against two best BE teams. With Creighton getting a firm beat down tonight and 7-5, not sure they’re looking NCAA material and the BE might be in the same spot.

Not sure what the BE is waiting for in not bringing in Dayton. They’re a nice fit.

 

[gsmooth]

Lol - definitely not. The AAC is Memphis and a bunch of wet terds. I never want to have to think about the AAC again and am forever grateful to the BE for taking us out of that swamp.

The Atlantic 10 on the other hand may be a three bid league. 3-0 against PC, Dayton 2-0 against two best BE teams. With Creighton getting a firm beat down tonight and 7-5, not sure they’re looking NCAA material and the BE might be in the same spot.

Not sure what the BE is waiting for in not bringing in Dayton. They’re a nice fit.

According to the Dayton fans I spoke to in Maui, they and a majority of the Dayton fans really want to be in the Big East and feel they belong there. They feel there is a barrier that will block them or object strongly......
............


Xavier

 

[shizzle787]

Lol - definitely not. The AAC is Memphis and a bunch of wet terds. I never want to have to think about the AAC again and am forever grateful to the BE for taking us out of that swamp.

The Atlantic 10 on the other hand may be a three bid league. 3-0 against PC, Dayton 2-0 against two best BE teams. With Creighton getting a firm beat down tonight and 7-5, not sure they’re looking NCAA material and the BE might be in the same spot.

Not sure what the BE is waiting for in not bringing in Dayton. They’re a nice fit.

If Dayton agrees to take no TV money until the next contract, and the league stays at 20 games, it might make sense.

 

[freescooter]

That wasn't an implosion. A ref can move a game this close with 2 or 3 calls, and that is exactly what happened.

Every time a team you want to win doesn’t it isn’t necessarily the referee’s fault. Sometimes guys make good plays. Sometimes they screw up. It happens but every time a NEWBE loses it isn’t due to bad officiating.

 

[freescooter]

According to the Dayton fans I spoke to in Maui, they and a majority of the Dayton fans really want to be in the Big East and feel they belong there. They feel there is a barrier that will block them or object strongly......
............


Xavier

I really want to be in Warren Buffett’s will. I and the majority of my friends and relatives feel we really belong there. But we all feel that there is a barrier that will block us or object strongly…like his actual heirs and family.

Good grief, Xavier and Butler at a minimum don’t want Dayton. Not sure why anyone does. They bring another mouth to feed. That’s it. The Big East and the New Big East constantly make the same mistake of adding teams that “seem like” they are going to be good. DePaul, Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall (yeah they were an original member but have about 2 successful seasons). Dayton is more of the same. If we finally go to the B12 or ACC, Val can say Flyers, come on down. But not before. What all of those other teams show is that being the best team in a lesser conference or making a deep run a couple of years in a row does NOT mean you can keep it up when your coach leaves or your level of competition improves. Dayton. Yuck!

 

[Inyatkin]

The Big East and the New Big East constantly make the same mistake of adding teams that “seem like” they are going to be good.

... what?

 

[RuffRuff]

I really want to be in Warren Buffett’s will. I and the majority of my friends and relatives feel we really belong there. But we all feel that there is a barrier that will block us or object strongly…like his actual heirs and family.

Good grief, Xavier and Butler at a minimum don’t want Dayton. Not sure why anyone does. They bring another mouth to feed. That’s it. The Big East and the New Big East constantly make the same mistake of adding teams that “seem like” they are going to be good. DePaul, Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall (yeah they were an original member but have about 2 successful seasons). Dayton is more of the same. If we finally go to the B12 or ACC, Val can say Flyers, come on down. But not before. What all of those other teams show is that being the best team in a lesser conference or making a deep run a couple of years in a row does NOT mean you can keep it up when your coach leaves or your level of competition improves. Dayton. Yuck!

This works in more than one way - some of this is future casting value and having numbers/content helps with that. The BE only has hoops to think about and to solidify that brand, so taking on a new program that totally fits the culture and geo can help. Grabbing one of the best mid majors best programs could also help the BE from becoming one.

Not everything in this world of realignment should be reactive, which has been Val’s MO. That said I’m sure there are smart people running the risk and analytics around this, or at least putting it into CHATgbt.

Or they can trade Seton Hall for then .

 

[freescooter]

This works in more than one way - some of this is future casting value and having numbers/content helps with that. The BE only has hoops to think about and to solidify that brand, so taking on a new program that totally fits the culture and geo can help. Grabbing one of the best mid majors best programs could also help the BE from becoming one.

Not everything in this world of realignment should be reactive, which has been Val’s MO. That said I’m sure there are smart people running the risk and analytics around this, or at least putting it into CHATgbt.

Or they can trade Seton Hall for then .

Seton Hall and DePaul and cash! And a Butler to be named later.

 

[gsmooth]

I really want to be in Warren Buffett’s will. I and the majority of my friends and relatives feel we really belong there. But we all feel that there is a barrier that will block us or object strongly…like his actual heirs and family.

Good grief, Xavier and Butler at a minimum don’t want Dayton. Not sure why anyone does. They bring another mouth to feed. That’s it. The Big East and the New Big East constantly make the same mistake of adding teams that “seem like” they are going to be good. DePaul, Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall (yeah they were an original member but have about 2 successful seasons). Dayton is more of the same. If we finally go to the B12 or ACC, Val can say Flyers, come on down. But not before. What all of those other teams show is that being the best team in a lesser conference or making a deep run a couple of years in a row does NOT mean you can keep it up when your coach leaves or your level of competition improves. Dayton. Yuck!

LOL. I am just the messenger that was working really hard in Maui to provide the news

I agree with RuffRuff. Will the BE turn Dayton into a stronger team? The BE very well might and the addition of Dayton becomes accretive. But really I don't know if that would be the case, but if it is it wouldn't hurt to bring them. But I don't think it should be a consideration now. Like you stated, if and when UConn leaves the Big East then adding Dayton should be in consideration.

 

[HuskyHawk]

According to the Dayton fans I spoke to in Maui, they and a majority of the Dayton fans really want to be in the Big East and feel they belong there. They feel there is a barrier that will block them or object strongly......
............


Xavier

They are the replacement for UConn when we go P4.

 

[freescooter]

... what?

The Big East has a tendency to add teams that are having good little runs. Butler, and DePaul are great examples. DePaul had been to a couple of tournaments, won a game or 2 out of CUSA. But they weren’t consistently good. Butler had 2 NCAA FINAL Runs. BE leadership assumed they would continue and that being in the NEWBE or the original would help them keep up. Neither thing happened. Both are lousy. Though DePaul is like record settingly lousy. I see Dayton as another of the same.

 

[shizzle787]

The Big East has a tendency to add teams that are having good little runs. Butler, and DePaul are great examples. DePaul had been to a couple of tournaments, won a game or 2 out of CUSA. But they weren’t consistently good. Butler had 2 NCAA FINAL Runs. BE leadership assumed they would continue and that being in the NEWBE or the original would help them keep up. Neither thing happened. Both are lousy. Though DePaul is like record settingly lousy. I see Dayton as another of the same.

They added DePaul because of Chicago. DePaul wasn’t very good in CUSA. They were a market add. Butler was a perennial tournament team until COVID. Revisionist history at its finest. The Catholic 7 had to add three teams. Xavier was a perennially strong A-10 program and Creighton was one of the two traditional thoroughbreds in the MVC.

 

[freescooter]

They added DePaul because of Chicago. DePaul wasn’t very good in CUSA. They were a market add. Butler was a perennial tournament team until COVID. Revisionist history at its finest. The Catholic 7 had to add three teams. Xavier was a perennially strong A-10 program and Creighton was one of the two traditional thoroughbreds in the MVC.

Xavier was good in the A10, a mid major, until they had to replace their coach. Butler was good in the MVC, a mid-major then moved to the A10 we’re they were ok but not as good then the NEWBE where they have been ok at best and awful at worst.

DePaul was a market add but we’re chosen because they had

 

[MU in MKE]

The Big East has a tendency to add teams that are having good little runs. Butler, and DePaul are great examples. DePaul had been to a couple of tournaments, won a game or 2 out of CUSA. But they weren’t consistently good. Butler had 2 NCAA FINAL Runs. BE leadership assumed they would continue and that being in the NEWBE or the original would help them keep up. Neither thing happened. Both are lousy. Though DePaul is like record settingly lousy. I see Dayton as another of the same.

Nah, they both made sense. DePaul b/c they had history and b/c media markets were important at the time. Butler wasn't a flash in the pan, you just probably weren't paying attention to them because you didn't cross paths much until UConn rejoined the BE. Look at their history in the last 15 years. COVID disrupted what was really a solid program that continued to perform well despite coaching turnover. They really did make sense to add.

 

[upstater]

LOL. I am just the messenger that was working really hard in Maui to provide the news

I agree with RuffRuff. Will the BE turn Dayton into a stronger team? The BE very well might and the addition of Dayton becomes accretive. But really I don't know if that would be the case, but if it is it wouldn't hurt to bring them. But I don't think it should be a consideration now. Like you stated, if and when UConn leaves the Big East then adding Dayton should be in consideration.

Dayton has something 99.9% of other schools of its caliber don't have. An incredibly loyal fanbase. It seems the people of Dayton live and die by this team.

I've been in arenas during tournaments twice when they've been around. When Dayton played in the northeast regionals, they've had the most impressive fanbase by far, even when UConn, Syracuse, Villanova and Ohio State were playing. I've seen it with my own eyes, and it was impressive. They have a bunch of unique chants as well.

The city/town has a big arena that hosts NCAA regionals and they fill it. This program is impressive. The problem of course is that they are so close to Cincinnati that they may eat into Xavier's market.

 

[Inyatkin]

Dayton also has a more recent history of contending nationally than a number of current Big East teams, but it was wiped out by COVID so they don't get credit for it

 

[RuffRuff]

Dayton has something 99.9% of other schools of its caliber don't have. An incredibly loyal fanbase. It seems the people of Dayton live and die by this team.

I've been in arenas during tournaments twice when they've been around. When Dayton played in the northeast regionals, they've had the most impressive fanbase by far, even when UConn, Syracuse, Villanova and Ohio State were playing. I've seen it with my own eyes, and it was impressive. They have a bunch of unique chants as well.

The city/town has a big arena that hosts NCAA regionals and they fill it. This program is impressive. The problem of course is that they are so close to Cincinnati that they may eat into Xavier's market.

Amazing fanbase in a deeply rooted hoops community/alumni. Xavier down the street and a nice local rival. Catholic. As good a fit as it gets.

 

[gsmooth]

Dayton has something 99.9% of other schools of its caliber don't have. An incredibly loyal fanbase. It seems the people of Dayton live and die by this team.

I've been in arenas during tournaments twice when they've been around. When Dayton played in the northeast regionals, they've had the most impressive fanbase by far, even when UConn, Syracuse, Villanova and Ohio State were playing. I've seen it with my own eyes, and it was impressive. They have a bunch of unique chants as well.

The city/town has a big arena that hosts NCAA regionals and they fill it. This program is impressive. The problem of course is that they are so close to Cincinnati that they may eat into Xavier's market.

This is very true. I will try to keep this as short as I can.

When swimming in the Pacific Ocean by Maui, I was talking to one of the Dayton fans 30 feet away and he said this, "I know you Husky fans and other basketball fans might say we are little old Dayton, but we show out and you will see tomorrow for the Maui Invitational".

He was not kidding. I watched all 4 Monday games live, and UNC had the most fans of anyone in the tournament and filled 75% of the Lahaina Civic Center in their game against Dayton, but the Dayton fans were loud the entire game, both in the first half when they built an 18 pt lead and even in the 2nd half when UNC was making their comeback. They made their presence felt.

Fast forward 2 days later... I bought the tickets to the 7th place game between UConn-Dayton on StubHub. Little did I know the seats were in the middle of the Dayton section, LOL. In the first half of that game, they were loud and some were even saying to me and my wife when we were cheering for UConn, "you guys are in the wrong section", LOL. But they were cool and me and my wife had great conversations with them and they know their basketball, too, and give good details about the strengths and weaknesses of their roster. In the 2nd half, we moved to the UConn section, but even with the game close, their fans were far louder, more energetic, than the UConn fans, I was embarrassed. My wife asked, "what is wrong with the UConn fans?" I even got a kick out of their "Hurley's angry" chant. After the game was over, me and my wife helped the staff clean up and about 20-30 Dayton fans were waiting for the Dayton players outside of the locker and cheered when they exited towards the bus.

I had so much fun, but it was humbling going from the loud raucous pro-UConn environment, and frankly coronation, of UConn in the Elite 8 game down the road from my house at TD Garden with the confetti falling at the end and nets being cut down to seeing Nate Santos of Dayton exit the game with 2 minutes left and motion with his arms towards the Dayton fans pumping them up. The Dayton fans were cheering loudly at that moment as the UConn fans sat quietly as UConn was on the wrong end of a blowout.

In another post and in another thread I will air my grievances about the UConn fans at home in more detail. In the Elite 8 game in Boston and the MSG game last year versus St. John's, the crowd was great. It needs to be better in Gampel and XL.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

12 BE wins puts Nova at 19-12, PC at 18-13, X at 20-15, and GTown at 20-14

That is firmly at the “on the bubble and you need to get lucky” level. They definitely need to hit the + part of 12-8+ for an at large

Maybe we took different math classes at UConn, but if Xavier goes 12-8 in the Big East, they would have a 20-11 record, and if Georgetown did the same they would be 20-10.

Are we adding extra losses to Big East teams now?