Big East OOC 2.0

[REB1094]

Bad news: Creighton was supposed to be our anchor opportunities for more Q1 games. Now every win looks less good and every loss looks more bad

Good news: it’s kind of funny

Hurley has his game plan. Get them in foul trouble, because Creighton’s bench barely knows how to play basketball

 

[ctchamps]

Bad news: Creighton was supposed to be our anchor opportunities for more Q1 games. Now every win looks less good and every loss looks more bad

Good news: it’s kind of funny

Hurley has his game plan. Get them in foul trouble, because Creighton’s bench barely knows how to play basketball

All it means is UConn is the Gonzaga of the east at this point. A dominant team in a conference that is having a down year. UConn is the team that can build resumes in the BE.

By the end of the season Creighton and Nova could be back to their preseason prediction forms.

I’m sure Hurley and the players are focused with their development and handle whatever situation develops.

 

[REB1094]

All it means is UConn is the Gonzaga of the east at this point. A dominant team in a conference that is having a down year. UConn is the team that can build resumes in the BE.

By the end of the season Creighton and Nova could be back to their preseason prediction forms.

I’m sure Hurley and the players are focused with their development and handle whatever situation develops.

Yep, I agree. I’m not too concerned about Creighton and Villanova, but now every BE win comes with a matching BE loss. Not a great OOC stretch for anybody not named UConn or….St Johns??

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yet every talking and typing head in America had preordained Creighton as a lock for the Final Four. Not looking very good now.

If you are going to say “I told you so” about Creighton, please provide a link to the post where you predicted Creighton might not even be a tournament team.

 

[tzznandrew]

This Creighton/BYU game is drunk. (At this point it's mostly BYU that's drunk).

They got into the juiceboxes.

 

[tzznandrew]

Some people will never learn that the seed isn't as important as how the team is playing.
I submit UConn 2011 and 2014 as Exhibits 1 and 2.

And as a counter, I submit 2016.

2011 got a 3-seed. That was actually a very good seed.

2014 got underseeded, but that team was playing great. Still, they had a tough first round game they nearly lost, and the Regionals were in MSG. Let's not. make the exception (and I'd suggest only 2014 is the exception) the rule.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

If you are going to say “I told you so” about Creighton, please provide a link to the post where you predicted Creighton might not even be a tournament team.

I never said they wouldn't make the tournament (don't put words in my mouth). What I did think was that they were more likely a team in the +/- 15 range as I think they were given a bit too much respect for their starting 5 (they're very good but not as good as all the hype they got/you'd think they were Bird, Parrish, McHale, Ainge, DJ level for crying out loud) and their lack of depth was totally ignored by the pundants.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Certainly was the opinion on The Boneyard but if Kalk does have mono which no one could factor preseason it explains their current situation.

If he heals quickly that team will be a tough out.

I agree they'll be a tough out but it'll be difficult for them to go back to back to back nights in the BE tourney. It might be easier for them to win 3 or 4 games in the big dance as rest between games will help their lack of depth.

 

[Sphinx]

All it means is UConn is the Gonzaga of the east at this point. A dominant team in a conference that is having a down year. UConn is the team that can build resumes in the BE.

By the end of the season Creighton and Nova could be back to their preseason prediction forms.

I’m sure Hurley and the players are focused with their development and handle whatever situation develops.

I think your "Gonzaga of the East" label is well taken with respect to perception but probably not in reality. Xavier and Marquette have proved themselves to be of Top-Thirty quality, and Creighton and Villanova will get there in time. So UConn will come out of its conference play far more battle-tested than past Gonzaga teams. They will be prepared for tournament play. But because the BE goes into conference play with only one acknowledged Top Thirty team, it will be difficult for its top teams to earn top NCAA seeds. Short of going undefeated, UConn probably cannot guarantee itself a #1 seed and a free ride into the Sweet Sixteen. All it can do is prove itself the top team in the BE. It can assure itself the highest seed of any BE team, and that, I submit, turns out to be the goal for the regular season.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Here are the Big East's NET ratings for games through 12/10 (with remaining OOC opponents):

UConn - 1
Xavier - 39 (Southern)
Marquette - 43 (@ Notre Dame)
Creighton - 44 (Arizona State (N))
Butler - 51
St. Johns - 71 (Florida State (N))
Providence - 103
Villanova - 115 (St. Joseph's (N))
Seton Hall - 119 (@Rutgers, Drexel)
Depaul - 156 (@Duquesne, @Northwestern)
Georgetown - 242

That is not terrible, but not great. That is a 4-5 bid league depending on how the OOC opponents do in their own conference play and how the Big East standings play out. The problem for UConn is that there is not another top team or two for UConn to pick up high quality wins.

Villanova may get a mulligan on some of its early games for Whitmore and the other injured player whose name I forget.

Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall and Depaul could still meaningfully help their NET ratings with wins. Marquette and Depaul are the only two of those that have shown any signs of life so far this season.

 

[Scot-e]

Yep, I agree. I’m not too concerned about Creighton and Villanova, but now every BE win comes with a matching BE loss. Not a great OOC stretch for anybody not named UConn or….St Johns??

Creighton ( who ever thought it was a good idea to name a school Creighton) is going to start making their 3 s again at some point- most likely against us - and when they do watch out. They will be tough.

 

[SoFla Steve]

People forget about Butler. With a NET of 51, the game at Hinkle F/H (our next game) will be Q1.

 

[mike012]

The BE net doesn’t look that bad. Look at the Acc , loserville might be ranked 363 by now.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

20 years ago, you could basically draw a line under the #45 RPI team, and everyone above it got into the tournament, and maybe 3-5 other teams would make it as at-larges. Then the MVC started gaming the RPI really well, and sent 3 teams a couple of years and I believe 4 teams one year. The Selection Committee stopped weighting RPI so heavily, and then finally did away with it altogether, replacing it with the NET.

The NET is a black box that no one really knows what is in it, which makes it a terrible selection criteria. Many have tried to reverse-engineer it, and I suspect they are pretty close.

The NCAA overhauls the NET ratings used to build the March Madness bracket: Key takeaways

What you need to know about the changes coming to the NCAA NET ratings

www.cbssports.com

One glaring weakness of the NET, and KenPom's ratings too, is that Margin of Victory is uncapped. Basically, pummeling bad teams is a great way to get a high NET. The idiots at the NCAA probably thought that this would help the power conference teams, but the MWC has gamed it and now has 6 teams in the top 52 NET despite a modest 7-4 record against P6 opponents among those 6 teams. How did the MWC get so many teams with such high NETs? By bludgeoning bad teams. Utah State has a 12 NET and New Mexico has a 24 NET despite neither team playing a single power conference opponent. Nice work NCAA.

The MoV actually helps the Big East this season despite a poor head to head record against other P6 leagues because a lot of the losses were close while many of the wins were blowouts.

 

[kobebeanbryant]

Here are the Big East's NET ratings for games through 12/10 (with remaining OOC opponents):

UConn - 1
Xavier - 39 (Southern)
Marquette - 43 (@ Notre Dame)
Creighton - 44 (Arizona State (N))
Butler - 51
St. Johns - 71 (Florida State (N))
Providence - 103
Villanova - 115 (St. Joseph's (N))
Seton Hall - 119 (@Rutgers, Drexel)
Depaul - 156 (@Duquesne, @Northwestern)
Georgetown - 242

bleh…

 

[SoFla Steve]

The BE net doesn’t look that bad. Look at the Acc , loserville might be ranked 363 by now.

KenPom: The ACC is closer to the Mountain West than it is to the Big East!

 

[SoFla Steve]

20 years ago, you could basically draw a line under the #45 RPI team, and everyone above it got into the tournament, and maybe 3-5 other teams would make it as at-larges. Then the MVC started gaming the RPI really well, and sent 3 teams a couple of years and I believe 4 teams one year. The Selection Committee stopped weighting RPI so heavily, and then finally did away with it altogether, replacing it with the NET.

The NET is a black box that no one really knows what is in it, which makes it a terrible selection criteria. Many have tried to reverse-engineer it, and I suspect they are pretty close.

The NCAA overhauls the NET ratings used to build the March Madness bracket: Key takeaways

What you need to know about the changes coming to the NCAA NET ratings

www.cbssports.com

One glaring weakness of the NET, and KenPom's ratings too, is that Margin of Victory is uncapped. Basically, pummeling bad teams is a great way to get a high NET. The idiots at the NCAA probably thought that this would help the power conference teams, but the MWC has gamed it and now has 6 teams in the top 52 NET despite a modest 7-4 record against P6 opponents among those 6 teams. How did the MWC get so many teams with such high NETs? By bludgeoning bad teams. Utah State has a 12 NET and New Mexico has a 24 NET despite neither team playing a single power conference opponent. Nice work NCAA.

The MoV actually helps the Big East this season despite a poor head to head record against other P6 leagues because a lot of the losses were close while many of the wins were blowouts.

MoV -- I believe this was true in the first year of the NET only. It was adjusted the following year to be capped at ten.

 

[ctchamps]

I think your "Gonzaga of the East" label is well taken with respect to perception but probably not in reality. Xavier and Marquette have proved themselves to be of Top-Thirty quality, and Creighton and Villanova will get there in time. So UConn will come out of its conference play far more battle-tested than past Gonzaga teams. They will be prepared for tournament play. But because the BE goes into conference play with only one acknowledged Top Thirty team, it will be difficult for its top teams to earn top NCAA seeds. Short of going undefeated, UConn probably cannot guarantee itself a #1 seed and a free ride into the Sweet Sixteen. All it can do is prove itself the top team in the BE. It can assure itself the highest seed of any BE team, and that, I submit, turns out to be the goal for the regular season.

Nice write up. I was going to write something in more detail but I just woke up, did not have my morning coffee and wanted to start the day off with the Boneyard community excitement instead.

The path to seeding is more difficult in weaker conferences. The Big East even in this down year is much stronger than the WCC usually is. Which means there is potential for more losses in conference play than Gonzaga normally has but because of the stronger conference less pressure to be perfect.

We can definitively say UConn is a top four team currently. However there are too many variables between now and the end of the regular season to definitively project what UConn’s situation will be at that point in time.

It’s a fun exercise that I enjoy reading and contributing but one I’m not losing any sleep about. My mindset is about enjoying the ride with this team as far as it can go.

 

[Kolumbo]

Georgetown basketball was once a hot ticket. Now it is giving them away.

The men’s basketball program once transformed the private, Jesuit school with just more than 3,500 undergraduate students into a national power and a national brand. Four decades later, the man at the centerpiece of that rise — because he was the dominant center on John Thompson’s teams — oversees that program from the sidelines. “There’s a lot of angry feelings amongst alumni and students and fans. I don’t think a lot of people care to follow this team. That desire kind of left a while ago.” There’s so much evidence of that. The latest data point: On the night the Hoyas gave away tickets to an arena that seats 20,356 people for basketball, only 3,526 folks showed up for free tickets. When the public address announcer introduced the Siena starters, the fans in the student section turned their back on the court and chanted, “Let’s go, Hoyas!” — a mock disrespect that is tradition. There were 19 of them...

Georgetown is so bad you can't even find a write-up about yesterday's game against orange outside of the Ontario province.

 

[Friarsnoop]

All it means is UConn is the Gonzaga of the east at this point. A dominant team in a conference that is having a down year. UConn is the team that can build resumes in the BE.

By the end of the season Creighton and Nova could be back to their preseason prediction forms.

I’m sure Hurley and the players are focused with their development and handle whatever situation develops.

The Big East is the 4th ranked conference in KenPom, clearly ahead of the Pac12 and ACC. I still believe that there will be 5-6 bids out of the conference, more likely 6.

 

[shizzle787]

77-35 (18-26).

DePaul, St. John's, Nova, Butler win; Creighton loses to BYU.

 

[shizzle787]

Kaluma fouled out. No rebounding. Turn the lights out.

This is a catastrophic loss for Creighton. BYU is bad this year, and will be lucky to play in any postseason tournament. This is probably a Quad 3 loss.

It screws UConn because UConn may not pick up a Quad 1 win at home the rest of the season. UConn probably can't get a 1 seed unless it loses 3 or fewer games. Even 3 losses would mean that a 1 seed is not a lock.

Thankfully, I don't think we are losing 3 games.

 

[shizzle787]

The Big East is the 4th ranked conference in KenPom, clearly ahead of the Pac12 and ACC. I still believe that there will be 5-6 bids out of the conference, more likely 6.

Unfortunately, I doubt that though it is possible. If you roughly assume that the #6 team goes 10-10 in conference, that team will be around 18-13 going into the BET. Must win in the 6/11 game. At 19-14, that is a bubble team. It will depend upon resume at that point.

As of right now:

Lock: UConn
Looking good: Xavier, Marquette
Should be in: St. John's, Creighton
Bubble: Nova, Providence
Not looking good: Butler, DePaul, Seton Hall
Better luck next year: Georgetown

 

[Zissou]

Villanova may get a mulligan on some of its early games for Whitmore and the other injured player whose name I forget.

Justin Moore

 

[superjohn]

Justin Moore

Torn Achilles.