It's time to recognize that the NBE isn't a temporary life raft for UConn athletics -- it's an anchor tied to our necks. As the biggest remaining athletic department, our "share" of the TV deal was always going to undervalue us. But what $2M per team says that we aren't even contributing to the overall pot because folks are discounting our membership in the NBE (on the perceived likelihood we leave). It's not so much a problem of dilution of the value UConn brings to the table by us having to share it with Tulane and UCF -- it's a problem of that value just evaporating.
Say NBC thinks UConn alone (as part of the NBE) is worth $8M a year for 6 years. But they think there's a 75% chance we're gone in two years. They're only willing to add $24M over 6 years to their bid for us (8+8+2+2+2+2), rather than the $48M we're worth to them because they don't want to pay and then get caught holding the bag. So $24M in our value just evaporates into the ether. It's an enormous deadweight loss. We don't get it, UCF doesn't get it -- it's just gone.
UConn needs to think outside the box about how to position ourselves to recapture some of this value. We can't do that in the NBE. One way to do that is to talk to the C7 about defecting with them. They don't want us because they think we'll leave as well -- but we could offer to pony up a sizable enough departure fee to make it worth their while. That keeps basketball relevant. We'd also make more per year under that contract and would be free to sell football as a stand-alone entity for whatever incremental money we can get. Yes, we'd have to go independent, but the NBE schedule would be such trash that we could come up with something just as good by offering attractive contracts to top BCS teams (e.g. 2 away, 1 Rentschler, 1 MetLife/Foxboro). We stand a better chance of capturing our TV value this way because whoever buys the rights would only pay for the time they have them -- if we go elsewhere, they're not stuck paying. And before anyone posts about how this is suicide and our best play is to "make the best of it" in the NBE, keep in mind that the NBE TV contract value we'd be throwing away values our football at precisely $0 (if not worse).