All Big East teams have now played 10 or 9 games and Seton Hall is playing their 11th game tonight, so we've essentially reached the halfway point of the conference season. We're starting to get a feel for where teams are stacking up, and how their tournament resumes are shaping up.
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Charts courtesy of BartTorvik.com
Standings Rank, NET, Team, Team Record (Conf Record)
Pred - KenPom, NET, T-Rank, EvanMiya, BPI averaged
Res - SOR, KPI, WAB averaged
Tourny odds - Torvik Tourneycast, Seed - Bracket Matrix current
BE SoS - Combined win % of opponents not including games against the team.
BE Net Rtg - BE scoring margin per 100 possessions.
(most of the stats are as of yesterday 1/29 if anything changed)
1. #5 UConn 18-2 (8-1)
Pred - #4, Res - #3
Q1+2 - 10-2 (7), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 100%, Seed - 1
Best win - N-UNC by 11
Worst loss - @Seton Hall by 15
Notes - 2 game conference lead in loss column. On track for NCAA tourny 1-seed. 8 game winning streak. Torvik has UConn with 87% chance to at least share the conference regular season title.
KP Proj BE Record: 17-3
BE SoS: 0.48 (T-4th)
BE Net Rtg: +17.7 (1st)
2. #13 Creighton 16-5 (7-3)
Pred - #14, Res - #19
Q1+2 - 7-5 (3), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 99.4%, Seed - 3
Best win - @Nebraska by 29
Worst loss - H-Nova by 2 in OT
Notes - Have won 7 of 8, only loss to UConn.
KP Proj BE Record: 13-7
BE SoS: 0.44 (10th)
BE Net Rtg: +9.4 (2nd)
3. #16 Marquette 15-5 (6-3)
Pred - #14, Res - #13
Q1+2 - 7-5 (4), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 99.9%, Seed - 3
Best win - @Illinois by 7
Worst loss - H-Butler by 7
Notes - 4 straight wins has brought them back into the chase for a repeat league title. Still 2 games left against UConn, so anything is possible. Average resume metric rank has gone from ~25 to 13.
KP Proj BE Record: 13-7
BE SoS: 0.47 (T-6th)
BE Net Rtg: +8.9 (3rd)
4. #74 Seton Hall 13-8 (6-4)
Pred - #68, Res - #56
Q1+2 - 5-7 (4), Q3+4 L - 1, Odds - 21%, Seed - 9
Best win - H-UConn by 15
Worst loss - H-Rutgers by 7
Notes - Kadary Richmond’s mystery injury has complicated their season outlook, and has taken them out of title contention for the moment. 4 Q1 wins is strong (and a couple are Q1A), but 3-4 in Q2+Q3 overall is lacking. Need quantity of decent wins at this point, not necessarily quality. Back half of the schedule gets easier.
KP Proj BE Record: 11-9
BE SoS: 0.59 (2nd)
BE Net Rtg: +0.3 (9th)
T5. #35 St. John’s 13-7 (5-4)
Pred - #29, Res - #44
Q1+2 - 7-6 (2), Q3+4 L -1, Odds - 89.4%, Seed - 8
Best win - @Nova by 10
Worst loss - H-Michigan by 16
*Notes - Torvik loves St. John’s. All 4 other predictive metrics are in the low 30s, but Torvik has them at 19. Have not yet played either Georgetown or DePaul and played at UConn, at Creighton, and at Seton Hall already, so they’re in a good spot being over .500 with a good net rating and more wins coming. A dark horse title pick.
KP Proj BE Record: 12-8
BE SoS: 0.62 (1st)
BE Net Rtg: +7.0 (4th)
T5. #51 Providence 14-6 (5-4)
Pred - #48, Res - #53
Q1+2 - 5-6 (3), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 46.7%, Seed - First four out
Best win - H-Wisconsin by 13
Worst loss - H-Seton Hall by 4
Notes - 3-4 (including game he got hurt) since Bryce Hopkins injury. Lost the first 4 and then won 3 straight. 2 of the wins are GTown and DePaul, though, and the other was Seton Hall without Richmond. Almost all of their metrics are in the high 40s to low 50s, which is about as bubblicious as can be.
KP Proj BE Record: 10-10
BE SoS: 0.47 (T-6th)
BE Net Rtg: +6.5 (5th)
7. #52 Butler 13-7 (5-5)
Pred - #59, Res - #56
Q1+2 - 4-7 (2), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 30.7%
Best win - @Marquette by 7
Worst loss - H-Seton Hall by 6
Notes - A lot of quality losses and large margin wins over cupcakes, but their first 2 quadrant record is lacking. With that desperation win over Villanova last game, it feels like they’re treading water right now, just barely staying afloat. After their mini-break, insanely difficult upcoming schedule at UConn and then at Creighton within 4 days of each other. Winning 1 of 2 would go a long way for their tourney chances.
KP Proj BE Record: 10-10
BE SoS: 0.43 (11th)
BE Net Rtg: +1.3 (8th)
T8. #43 Villanova 11-9 (4-5)
Pred - #36, Res - #66
Q1+2 - 5-6 (3), Q3+4 L - 3, Odds - 46.7%, Seed - 8
Best win - @Creighton by 2 in OT
Worst loss - N-Drexel by 2
Notes - Brutal loss at Butler in a game they led for 49.5 out of 50 minutes, extending their losing streak to 4 games. Have had their proj BE record reduced by 2 wins since last update, but predictive metrics are hanging on (especially Evan Miya still top 30). Resume metrics… not so much, and those are typically more important for bubble bids.
KP Proj BE Record: 10-10
BE SoS: 0.45 (9th)
BE Net Rtg: +2.2 (7th)
T8. #53 Xavier 10-9 (4-5)
Pred - #50, Res - #73
Q1+2 - 5-8 (2), Q3+4 L - 2, Odds - 44.5%
Best win - N-St. Mary’s by 17
Worst loss - Tie: H-Delaware by 7 and H-Oakland by 2
Notes - Was playing pretty well lately before the absolute beatdown they took at UConn (largest margin of defeat in any Big East game in 18 years). Fell 13 spots in the NET from that one game. Toughest 2-game stretch in conference over, though, and still 3 left against DePaul and GTown. Like with Nova, those Q3 losses may end up being killer on the bubble.
KP Proj BE Record: 11-9
BE SoS: 0.58 (3rd)
BE Net Rtg: -2.6 (9th)
10. #183 Georgetown 8-12 (1-8)
Pred - #169, Res - #202
Q1+2 - 0-10 (0), Q3+4 L - 2, Odds - 0%
Best win - @Notre Dame by 4 in OT
Worst loss - H-Holy Cross by 1
Notes - Outside of Butler game, have been more competitive lately. Lost the Cooley bowl in respectable fashion. Bubble teams have to be careful to not let Georgetown leach metric ranks away from them in closer than expected losses.
KP Proj BE Record: 3-17
BE SoS: 0.48 (T-4th)
BE Net Rtg: -17.7 (10th)
11. #301 DePaul 3-17 (0-9)
Pred - #285, Res - #283
Q1+2 - 0-13 (0), Q3+4 L - 4, Odds - 0%
Best win - H-Louisville by 7
Worst loss - H-Northern Illinois by 10
Notes - Despicable. Into the 300s of NET. A little surprised KP expects them to win a game. I don’t have the research, but this may be the worst Big East team of all time. Their metrics are considerably worse than the defeated Georgetown team from 2 years ago. Understandable midseason coach firing.
KP Proj BE Record: 1-19
BE SoS: 0.47 (T-6th)
BE Net Rtg: -34.7 (11th)
BE KenPom KPOY
1. Tristen Newton, UConn
2. Baylor Scheierman, Creighton
3. Tyler Kolek, Marquette
4. Trey Alexander, Creighton
5. Eric Dixon, Villanova
BE Player Stat Model (full season BPR, BE-only RAPM, BE-only BPM)
1. Donovan Clingan
2. Devin Carter
3. Kadary Richmond
4. Cam Spencer
5. Alex Karaban
6. Eric Dixon
7. Ryan Kalkbrenner
8. Oso Ighodaro
9. Baylor Scheierman
10. Joel Soriano
11. Trey Alexander
12. Josh Oduro
13. Tristen Newton
14. Stephon Castle
15. Tyler Kolek
BE-only RAPM Freshman Leaderboard (Hoop-Explorer)
1. Stephon Castle, UConn
2. Trey Green, Xavier
3. Garwey Dual, Providence
4. Zaide Lowery, Marquette
5. Brady Dunlap, St. John’s
6. Drew Fielder, Georgetown
7. Dailyn Swain, Xavier
BE-only 6MOTY RAPM (Hoop-Explorer, on court <50% possessions)
1. Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s
2. Hassan Diarra, UConn
3. Ben Gold, Marquette
4. Brendan Hausen, Villanova
5. Trey Green, Xavier
yuck