Big East Halfway Analysis

[auror]

All Big East teams have now played 10 or 9 games and Seton Hall is playing their 11th game tonight, so we've essentially reached the halfway point of the conference season. We're starting to get a feel for where teams are stacking up, and how their tournament resumes are shaping up.

Charts courtesy of BartTorvik.com

Standings Rank, NET, Team, Team Record (Conf Record)
Pred - KenPom, NET, T-Rank, EvanMiya, BPI averaged
Res - SOR, KPI, WAB averaged
Tourny odds - Torvik Tourneycast, Seed - Bracket Matrix current
BE SoS - Combined win % of opponents not including games against the team.
BE Net Rtg - BE scoring margin per 100 possessions.
(most of the stats are as of yesterday 1/29 if anything changed)

1. #5 UConn 18-2 (8-1)
Pred - #4, Res - #3
Q1+2 - 10-2 (7), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 100%, Seed - 1
Best win - N-UNC by 11
Worst loss - @Seton Hall by 15
Notes - 2 game conference lead in loss column. On track for NCAA tourny 1-seed. 8 game winning streak. Torvik has UConn with 87% chance to at least share the conference regular season title.
KP Proj BE Record: 17-3
BE SoS: 0.48 (T-4th)
BE Net Rtg: +17.7 (1st)

2. #13 Creighton 16-5 (7-3)
Pred - #14, Res - #19
Q1+2 - 7-5 (3), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 99.4%, Seed - 3
Best win - @Nebraska by 29
Worst loss - H-Nova by 2 in OT
Notes - Have won 7 of 8, only loss to UConn.
KP Proj BE Record: 13-7
BE SoS: 0.44 (10th)
BE Net Rtg: +9.4 (2nd)

3. #16 Marquette 15-5 (6-3)
Pred - #14, Res - #13
Q1+2 - 7-5 (4), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 99.9%, Seed - 3
Best win - @Illinois by 7
Worst loss - H-Butler by 7
Notes - 4 straight wins has brought them back into the chase for a repeat league title. Still 2 games left against UConn, so anything is possible. Average resume metric rank has gone from ~25 to 13.
KP Proj BE Record: 13-7
BE SoS: 0.47 (T-6th)
BE Net Rtg: +8.9 (3rd)

4. #74 Seton Hall 13-8 (6-4)
Pred - #68, Res - #56
Q1+2 - 5-7 (4), Q3+4 L - 1, Odds - 21%, Seed - 9
Best win - H-UConn by 15
Worst loss - H-Rutgers by 7
Notes - Kadary Richmond’s mystery injury has complicated their season outlook, and has taken them out of title contention for the moment. 4 Q1 wins is strong (and a couple are Q1A), but 3-4 in Q2+Q3 overall is lacking. Need quantity of decent wins at this point, not necessarily quality. Back half of the schedule gets easier.
KP Proj BE Record: 11-9
BE SoS: 0.59 (2nd)
BE Net Rtg: +0.3 (9th)

T5. #35 St. John’s 13-7 (5-4)
Pred - #29, Res - #44
Q1+2 - 7-6 (2), Q3+4 L -1, Odds - 89.4%, Seed - 8
Best win - @Nova by 10
Worst loss - H-Michigan by 16
*Notes - Torvik loves St. John’s. All 4 other predictive metrics are in the low 30s, but Torvik has them at 19. Have not yet played either Georgetown or DePaul and played at UConn, at Creighton, and at Seton Hall already, so they’re in a good spot being over .500 with a good net rating and more wins coming. A dark horse title pick.
KP Proj BE Record: 12-8
BE SoS: 0.62 (1st)
BE Net Rtg: +7.0 (4th)

T5. #51 Providence 14-6 (5-4)
Pred - #48, Res - #53
Q1+2 - 5-6 (3), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 46.7%, Seed - First four out
Best win - H-Wisconsin by 13
Worst loss - H-Seton Hall by 4
Notes - 3-4 (including game he got hurt) since Bryce Hopkins injury. Lost the first 4 and then won 3 straight. 2 of the wins are GTown and DePaul, though, and the other was Seton Hall without Richmond. Almost all of their metrics are in the high 40s to low 50s, which is about as bubblicious as can be.
KP Proj BE Record: 10-10
BE SoS: 0.47 (T-6th)
BE Net Rtg: +6.5 (5th)

7. #52 Butler 13-7 (5-5)
Pred - #59, Res - #56
Q1+2 - 4-7 (2), Q3+4 L - 0, Odds - 30.7%
Best win - @Marquette by 7
Worst loss - H-Seton Hall by 6
Notes - A lot of quality losses and large margin wins over cupcakes, but their first 2 quadrant record is lacking. With that desperation win over Villanova last game, it feels like they’re treading water right now, just barely staying afloat. After their mini-break, insanely difficult upcoming schedule at UConn and then at Creighton within 4 days of each other. Winning 1 of 2 would go a long way for their tourney chances.
KP Proj BE Record: 10-10
BE SoS: 0.43 (11th)
BE Net Rtg: +1.3 (8th)

T8. #43 Villanova 11-9 (4-5)
Pred - #36, Res - #66
Q1+2 - 5-6 (3), Q3+4 L - 3, Odds - 46.7%, Seed - 8
Best win - @Creighton by 2 in OT
Worst loss - N-Drexel by 2
Notes - Brutal loss at Butler in a game they led for 49.5 out of 50 minutes, extending their losing streak to 4 games. Have had their proj BE record reduced by 2 wins since last update, but predictive metrics are hanging on (especially Evan Miya still top 30). Resume metrics… not so much, and those are typically more important for bubble bids.
KP Proj BE Record: 10-10
BE SoS: 0.45 (9th)
BE Net Rtg: +2.2 (7th)

T8. #53 Xavier 10-9 (4-5)
Pred - #50, Res - #73
Q1+2 - 5-8 (2), Q3+4 L - 2, Odds - 44.5%
Best win - N-St. Mary’s by 17
Worst loss - Tie: H-Delaware by 7 and H-Oakland by 2
Notes - Was playing pretty well lately before the absolute beatdown they took at UConn (largest margin of defeat in any Big East game in 18 years). Fell 13 spots in the NET from that one game. Toughest 2-game stretch in conference over, though, and still 3 left against DePaul and GTown. Like with Nova, those Q3 losses may end up being killer on the bubble.
KP Proj BE Record: 11-9
BE SoS: 0.58 (3rd)
BE Net Rtg: -2.6 (9th)

10. #183 Georgetown 8-12 (1-8)
Pred - #169, Res - #202
Q1+2 - 0-10 (0), Q3+4 L - 2, Odds - 0%
Best win - @Notre Dame by 4 in OT
Worst loss - H-Holy Cross by 1
Notes - Outside of Butler game, have been more competitive lately. Lost the Cooley bowl in respectable fashion. Bubble teams have to be careful to not let Georgetown leach metric ranks away from them in closer than expected losses.
KP Proj BE Record: 3-17
BE SoS: 0.48 (T-4th)
BE Net Rtg: -17.7 (10th)

11. #301 DePaul 3-17 (0-9)
Pred - #285, Res - #283
Q1+2 - 0-13 (0), Q3+4 L - 4, Odds - 0%
Best win - H-Louisville by 7
Worst loss - H-Northern Illinois by 10
Notes - Despicable. Into the 300s of NET. A little surprised KP expects them to win a game. I don’t have the research, but this may be the worst Big East team of all time. Their metrics are considerably worse than the defeated Georgetown team from 2 years ago. Understandable midseason coach firing.
KP Proj BE Record: 1-19
BE SoS: 0.47 (T-6th)
BE Net Rtg: -34.7 (11th)

BE KenPom KPOY
1. Tristen Newton, UConn
2. Baylor Scheierman, Creighton
3. Tyler Kolek, Marquette
4. Trey Alexander, Creighton
5. Eric Dixon, Villanova

BE Player Stat Model (full season BPR, BE-only RAPM, BE-only BPM)
1. Donovan Clingan
2. Devin Carter
3. Kadary Richmond
4. Cam Spencer
5. Alex Karaban
6. Eric Dixon
7. Ryan Kalkbrenner
8. Oso Ighodaro
9. Baylor Scheierman
10. Joel Soriano
11. Trey Alexander
12. Josh Oduro
13. Tristen Newton
14. Stephon Castle
15. Tyler Kolek

BE-only RAPM Freshman Leaderboard (Hoop-Explorer)
1. Stephon Castle, UConn
2. Trey Green, Xavier
3. Garwey Dual, Providence
4. Zaide Lowery, Marquette
5. Brady Dunlap, St. John’s
6. Drew Fielder, Georgetown
7. Dailyn Swain, Xavier

BE-only 6MOTY RAPM (Hoop-Explorer, on court <50% possessions)
1. Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s
2. Hassan Diarra, UConn
3. Ben Gold, Marquette
4. Brendan Hausen, Villanova
5. Trey Green, Xavier

 

[husky429]

Georgetown and Depaul are really dragging us down, aren't they?

Pitino is a wizard. A slimy wizard, but a wizard.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Georgetown and Depaul are really dragging us down, aren't they?

Pitino is a wizard. A slimy wizard, but a wizard.

Pitino is the only other coach we played under Calhoun that gave me concern. Those full court presses he ran at Louisville specifically were killer at times.

 

[auror]

Georgetown and Depaul are really dragging us down, aren't they?

Pitino is a wizard. A slimy wizard, but a wizard.

On the one hand yes, but on the other hand they are feeding everyone else wins and DePaul especially has dropped in the efficiency metrics since the season started, so they have gifted some zero sum gain to other teams.

 

[ctchamps]

I would say this is more like a "full way" analysis. Thanks.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

This is a great primer for the last month of the regular season. Excellent work!

BE SoS only for the games played, correct? So StJ has had the toughest and Butler the easiest conference schedule thus far?

 

[Uconn77Duke74]

I'm most worried about Marquette. They've been under the radar of late.

 

[FLDawg16]

Without any statistical knowledge I would be extremely tempted to put Xavier's worst loss as @Uconn by 43

 

[auror]

BE SoS only for the games played, correct? So StJ has had the toughest and Butler the easiest conference schedule thus far?

Right only already played BE games. And with the games against that team subtracted out. So for Seton Hall our record is 8-0 and for teams we beat we count as 7-1 (and Xavier 6-1), etc.

 

[auror]

Without any statistical knowledge I would be extremely tempted to put Xavier's worst loss as @Uconn by 43

I mostly used WAB as the guide for that, which is more about the resume impact and losing to defending champs number one on the road is barely a scratch. But yeah that margin loss hurt their quality/predictive metrics the most by far

 

[aburks41]

I'm most worried about Marquette. They've been under the radar of late.

We need Nova to remember how to play basketball and beat them tonight

 

[NJHusky]

Those 3 losses to the Philly schools really hurt Nova’s tourney resume and offset winning the tournament in the Bahamas imo

 

[Palatine]

Long story short. Lots of good defensive teams in the Big East. One elite offensive team in the Big East.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

Pitino is the only other coach we played under Calhoun that gave me concern. Those full court presses he ran at Louisville specifically were killer at times.

I actually enjoyed watching his (gasp) Kentucky teams in the Travis Ford/Mashburn/McCarty/Rhodes days when they pressed full court all game and shot threes.

 

[husky429]

Pitino is the only other coach we played under Calhoun that gave me concern. Those full court presses he ran at Louisville specifically were killer at times.

Even when we beat them, the guy had the gameplan to beat us and his team executed. We just had more talent.

 

[MU in MKE]

@auror , thanks for compiling all of this. This is a great recap and summary of where we stand so far and what it means for the rest of the reason.

Regarding the resume, I would drop the RPI from the average since the committee (or anyone of importance) does not use it or reference it in any way anymore. *edit, nevermind... saw you had KPI not RPI...


Re: Nova tonight, if ever they had a shot to pull it off, it's now. Marquette is down two rotation players at least for injuries, possibly one starter (Kam Jones is questionable), and two other main players (Oso and Gold) are dealing with lingering injuries. A win by Nova tonight puts UConn completely in the drivers seat for 1st place regardless of what else happens in the conference for the rest of the season.

 

[MexicoHusky]

Even when we beat them, the guy had the gameplan to beat us and his team executed. We just had more talent.

I thought they were very good at riding the line of what is a foul and what is not. His teams definitely are tough to beat. It was definitely satisfying to stomp them in 2009 in Ville without hitting one three.

Dumb question... hes still the only coach with a NC in two different schools, right? Thats not coincidence.

 

[gsmooth]

Those 3 losses to the Philly schools really hurt Nova’s tourney resume and offset winning the tournament in the Bahamas imo

I said the same thing in a post but I don't remember the thread. How this Nova team came in last place for the Big 5 (Big 6 I guess it is now) I will never understand. They lost to Temple, St. Joseph's (handily), and Drexel yuck

 

[gsmooth]

Even when we beat them, the guy had the gameplan to beat us and his team executed. We just had more talent.

I would say with the exception of the UConn-Louisville game in 2009 when UConn crushed Louisville at their place. UConn had more talent, but I think Calhoun outcoached Pitino in that game, too. The 3 guard lineup allowed UConn to break their pressure with ease. Also, the half court D suffocated Louisville so they couldn't set up their press as much as they would liked to.

 

[gsmooth]

@auror , thanks for compiling all of this. This is a great recap and summary of where we stand so far and what it means for the rest of the reason.

Regarding the resume, I would drop the RPI from the average since the committee (or anyone of importance) does not use it or reference it in any way anymore. *edit, nevermind... saw you had KPI not RPI...


Re: Nova tonight, if ever they had a shot to pull it off, it's now. Marquette is down two rotation players at least for injuries, possibly one starter (Kam Jones is questionable), and two other main players (Oso and Gold) are dealing with lingering injuries. A win by Nova tonight puts UConn completely in the drivers seat for 1st place regardless of what else happens in the conference for the rest of the season.

oh damn, injuries are tough. You guys already lost Sean Jones and Chase Ross for the season (not 100% sure on Chase). Losing Kam for tonight and having a compromised Oso and Gould would mean a red alert for roster depth.

Marquette has had Nova's number beating them the last 5 times including sweeping them 2 years ago when they made the Final Four with Jay Wright.

 

[husky429]

I would say with the exception of the UConn-Louisville game in 2009 when UConn crushed Louisville at their place. UConn had more talent, but I think Calhoun outcoached Pitino in that game, too. The 3 guard lineup allowed UConn to break their pressure with ease. Also, the half court D suffocated Louisville so they couldn't set up their press as much as they would liked to.

Was referring to this year. Overall, great coaches will beat each other off an on. You know they're great when it doesn't happen twice.

 

[gsmooth]

On the one hand yes, but on the other hand they are feeding everyone else wins and DePaul especially has dropped in the efficiency metrics since the season started, so they have gifted some zero sum gain to other teams.

It's interesting you say that because it reminds me of a post that DFW Hoya wrote in the Providence thread after the Georgetown-Providence game:

Memo to other Big East schools: Georgetown is going to hang a Quad 4 loss on someone. Not sure who, not sure when. They might finish 2-18, but someone is going down.

I believe him and agree with him, too. There are games where Georgetown got blown out (i.e. at home vs Creighton, at home vs Butler) and then other games where they got beat handily but didn't get blown out but you never got the sense they would win either (i.e. at UConn, at Butler). However, there are some games they were there to the end and could've won but they would shart the game away by being sloppy (i.e. at home vs Seton Hall with Richmond playing, at Providence).

Georgetown has some decent talent, nothing great, but solid. They should've beaten the cupcakes they had in the beginning of their season with ease.

 

[HailUConn]

Even when we beat them, the guy had the gameplan to beat us and his team executed. We just had more talent.

He can flat out coach. His Iona team beat us in 1st half last year with little to none bench depth.

 

[NJHusky]

I said the same thing in a post but I don't remember the thread. How this Nova team came in last place for the Big 5 (Big 6 I guess it is now) I will never understand. They lost to Temple, St. Joseph's (handily), and Drexel yuck

Was it Penn or Temple...i think the former...either way, they spit the bit. Yet they beat NC, Memphis & TTech...Now they need some BE wins or they will be NIT bound.

 

[NJHusky]

Would be interesting to see our Defensive numbers with DC in the lineup v without