Big East Games Thread - Feb 25

[superjohn]

Neptune is so annoying. Does the bare minimum to save his butt and to spite the rest of the conference.

He's gone after this season, there's no saving his butt.

 

[auror]

Neptune has cost the league like 5 bids in his 3 years at Villanova. 3 for his own team, and a couple of bubble teams.

 

[superjohn]

Neptune has cost the league like 5 bids in his 3 years at Villanova. 3 for his own team, and a couple of bubble teams.

If Xavier can't beat Nova they don't belong in the tournament.

 

[buddy]

If Xavier can't beat Nova they don't belong in the tournament.

Would you say the same thing about UConn? Lost to Xavier and Nova.!

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Would you say the same thing about UConn? Lost to Xavier and Nova.!

Not exactly apples to apples. We were without Liam. And we’re paying for those losses now. No shot at a Big East regular season crown and our seed line will suffer.

 

[superjohn]

Would you say the same thing about UConn? Lost to Xavier and Nova.!

No. We're not fighting for our lives to make the tournament.

We never should've lost to Nova. We played poorly, no McNeeley, and AK choked.

Xavier basically needed to run the table for the rest of the regular season and couldn't even beat Nova.

 

[buddy]

No. We're not fighting for our lives to make the tournament.

We never should've lost to Nova. We played poorly, no McNeeley, and AK choked.

Xavier basically needed to run the table for the rest of the regular season and couldn't even beat Nova.

Are you sure about that? Struggled to beat DePaul and Butler at home. Lost at home to St John's. Marquette win may be downgraded if they continue their downward spiral Three losses in Maui at full strength. and more losses likely to come. Can easily end up on the bubble. Even the game at PC will be a challenge.

 

[buddy]

Not exactly apples to apples. We were without Liam. And we’re paying for those losses now. No shot at a Big East regular season crown and our seed line will suffer.

Another unexpected loss and early exit from the BE tourney will put us on the bubble. Especially given the benefit the power conferences receive.

 

[auror]

UConn is 42nd in NET WAB. The next teams are Texas, SDSU, Arkansas, SMU, UNC, Gonzaga. Those teams are 10, 11, out, out, out, 9 seed in Bracket Matrix.

Also 45th in KPI. 39th in SOR. Those are the 3 resume metrics on the team sheet.

We're getting pretty bubbly, but we're on the right side for now. If we get killed by Creighton on Tuesday, we'll be firmly on bubble. Further losses outside of at St. John's will be trouble.

 

[RuffRuff]

UConn is 42nd in NET WAB. The next teams are Texas, SDSU, Arkansas, SMU, UNC, Gonzaga. Those teams are 10, 11, out, out, out, 9 seed in Bracket Matrix.

Also 45th in KPI. 39th in SOR. Those are the 3 resume metrics on the team sheet.

We're getting pretty bubbly, but we're on the right side for now. If we get killed by Creighton on Tuesday, we'll be firmly on bubble. Further losses outside of at St. John's will be trouble.

The game at PC is always their SB. They’d love nothing more than to put us on the bubble.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

UConn is 42nd in NET WAB. The next teams are Texas, SDSU, Arkansas, SMU, UNC, Gonzaga. Those teams are 10, 11, out, out, out, 9 seed in Bracket Matrix.

Also 45th in KPI. 39th in SOR. Those are the 3 resume metrics on the team sheet.

We're getting pretty bubbly, but we're on the right side for now. If we get killed by Creighton on Tuesday, we'll be firmly on bubble. Further losses outside of at St. John's will be trouble.

UConn is actually getting some help from the Top 3 conferences. The Big 12 has seven teams within 2 games of .500, but Utah, Kansas State, and TCU have no shot at a bid and WVU is in bubble territory. The SEC only has four teams in that situation, and Vanderbilt's remaining schedule is really tough. It is hard to see a path where Vanderbilt, Texas, Georgia, Arkansas and Oklahoma all make it, because they all have must wins against each other. The Big 10 only has three teams within 2 games of .500, and two of them, Ohio State and USC, are in big trouble in terms of their bubble profile and remaining schedule. Oregon is 5-8 in conference, but has a pretty manageable remaining schedule so will probably be safe by Selection Sunday.

The ACC bubble teams are starting to perform as expected given their brutal performance in their non-conference schedule. Wins don't help and losses really hurt. SMU has a lousy NET of 40 despite being 18-5. Pitt needs 21 or 22 wins to even get in the discussion for an at-large.

The MWC has four bubbly teams (New Mexico, Utah State, Boise State and SDSU), but they all have a lot of games against each other left and none of them have much margin of error. I would expect one or two to play themselves all the way off the bubble.

My Predictions of total bids by league:

SEC: 12 (11 at-large)
Big 10: 9 (8 at-large)
Big 12: 8 (7 at-large)
Big East: 4 (3 at-large)
ACC: 4 (3 at-large)
MWC: 2 (1 at-large)
WCC: 2 (1 at-large)

34 at-large teams for 36 bids. There is still some cushion in that for upsets or some random team going on a tear. It is also as likely that a team will fall off a cliff as go on a tear, so some of those assumed at-large bids will get swapped as intra-conference games are decided.

 

[RuffRuff]

UConn is actually getting some help from the Top 3 conferences. The Big 12 has seven teams within 2 games of .500, but Utah, Kansas State, and TCU have no shot at a bid and WVU is in bubble territory. The SEC only has four teams in that situation, and Vanderbilt's remaining schedule is really tough. It is hard to see a path where Vanderbilt, Texas, Georgia, Arkansas and Oklahoma all make it, because they all have must wins against each other. The Big 10 only has three teams within 2 games of .500, and two of them, Ohio State and USC, are in big trouble in terms of their bubble profile and remaining schedule. Oregon is 5-8 in conference, but has a pretty manageable remaining schedule so will probably be safe by Selection Sunday.

The ACC bubble teams are starting to perform as expected given their brutal performance in their non-conference schedule. Wins don't help and losses really hurt. SMU has a lousy NET of 40 despite being 18-5. Pitt needs 21 or 22 wins to even get in the discussion for an at-large.

The MWC has four bubbly teams (New Mexico, Utah State, Boise State and SDSU), but they all have a lot of games against each other left and none of them have much margin of error. I would expect one or two to play themselves all the way off the bubble.

My Predictions of total bids by league:

SEC: 12 (11 at-large)
Big 10: 9 (8 at-large)
Big 12: 8 (7 at-large)
Big East: 4 (3 at-large)
ACC: 4 (3 at-large)
MWC: 2 (1 at-large)
WCC: 2 (1 at-large)

34 at-large teams for 36 bids. There is still some cushion in that for upsets or some random team going on a tear. It is also as likely that a team will fall off a cliff as go on a tear, so some of those assumed at-large bids will get swapped as intra-conference games are decided.

You’re evaluating this in terms of us getting in? Or seeding?

 

[RuffRuff]

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You’re evaluating this in terms of us getting in? Or seeding?

Seeding is more complicated, but the analysis kind of covers both. One of UConn’s problems is the lack of potential quality wins to boost its seeding profile compared to other teams likely to be Top 6 seeds. We really need St. John’s, Creighton and Marquette to win out against all the other Big East teams, because a losing streak by any of them would be really bad for UConn’s metrics.